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#Post#: 1590--------------------------------------------------
Food Quadruple Whammy
By: RE Date: November 11, 2021, 11:52 pm
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Here in 4 articles are the problems facing food production
RIGHT NOW. Not the supply chain problems, although they also
impact it's not quite the same thing. Food is there, you just
can't get it to the Useless Eaters. So we will leave that out
for now.
Problem #1: Price
HTML https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/future/WHEAT-FUTURES-W-CBR--16218/news/Wheat-Rises-to-Highest-Close-Since-2012-Daily-Grain-Highlights-36991704/
Price of the product rises steadily, pricing out the poor from
buying.
Problem #2: Fertilizer
HTML https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/farmers-compelled-to-die-by-suicide-owing-to-fertlizer-shortage-says-rakesh-tikait-1873076-2021-11-04
Life is not worth living for the farmers trying to grow the food
the population cannot afford to buy.
Problem #3: Climate
HTML https://reliefweb.int/report/world/climate-change-hunger-crisis-making
This aspect of climate change is not "coming soon to a farm near
you", it's already here in many parts of the world.
Problem #4: Disease
No, I am not talking about Covid hitting the Deer population
cutting down the supply of venison. I'm talking about crop
diseases.
HTML https://talkbusiness.net/2021/11/new-pathogen-threatens-soybean-crops-in-arkansas/
Because Corn requires so much fertilizer, farmers are
considering switching to soy beans. Except if you grow soy
beans in consecutive years, you get parasite problems with
worms.
Monoculture farming has tons of problems. Remember the Irish
Famine and the Potato Blight? Imagine if the Arkansas problem
goes nationwide next year and there is a widespread failure of
the soy bean crop. That spells the Irish Famine on Steroids, on
the Global scale.
OK, maybe the Worst Case Scenario doesn't happen next year. But
we still have 8 more years until 2030. Are you ready to bet
that things will improve in Ag over the next 8 years? Or do you
believe in Skittle Shitting Unicorn Food Replicators?
RE
#Post#: 1595--------------------------------------------------
Re: Food Errata
By: Nearings fault Date: November 12, 2021, 7:58 am
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You must rotate crops. Anything else is greed and hubris.
Soybeans to corn is the default rotation here for livestock
growers. Sometimes oats sometime wheat if they also do cash
crops but usually corn and soy... Bumper harvests this year for
both in this area. Not saying the general trend is not down just
that we are still in the era of winners and losers.
#Post#: 1597--------------------------------------------------
Brazil: Canary in the Coal Mine for Fertilizer
By: RE Date: November 12, 2021, 9:01 am
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Southern Hemisphere planting season is almost here, and the
Fertilizer situation is tenuous. Fertilizer has been purchased,
but not yet delivered. What the yields are at harvest time
should give a good indication on what will occur in the North in
2022.
Tight fertilisers market risks dampening Brazil’s 2022/23 crops
HTML https://www.agricensus.com/Article/Tight-fertilisers-market-risks-dampening-Brazil-s-2022-23-crops-19341.html
How damp will it get? What will be the YoY production of corn
from 2021 to 2022? Make your bets now. I'll go for a 20%
decline at even odds.
RE
#Post#: 1629--------------------------------------------------
Re: Food Errata
By: Digwe Must Date: November 13, 2021, 1:07 pm
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After hurting my hand I couldn't respond a week or so ago
regarding the problems with non-organic crops being sold
fraudulently as organic Very interesting story.
Here is an article regarding the attempt by Sri Lanka to go
completely organic suddenly. All sorts of angles with the
Chinese, belt road initiative, toxins, debt issues, bank
blackballing etc.
HTML https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-59202309
'Toxic, garbage, pollution'
The issue is with the quality of the fertiliser - which
scientists say, instead of helping, could prove harmful to
crops.
"Our tests on the samples showed that the (Chinese) fertiliser
was not sterile," Dr Ajantha De Silva, director general, Sri
Lankan Department of Agriculture, told the BBC. "We have
identified bacteria which are harmful to plants like carrots and
potatoes."
They insist that since the cargo has implications for the
bio-security of the country, it cannot be accepted."
"While the officials from the two countries spar over the
fertiliser, tens of thousands of Sri Lankan farmers are looking
at a bleak paddy farming season without the much-needed
agricultural input.
Rice farmers like R M Rathnayaka, from the south-eastern
Monaragala district, say the government's abrupt ban on chemical
fertilisers and pesticides has massively impacted the agrarian
community.
"We cannot convert to organic farming all of a sudden. Though it
is better to use natural manure, the government's current
approach is wrong", Mr Rathnayaka told the BBC.
He suggested that the country should move towards organic
farming "in a phased manner."
#Post#: 1641--------------------------------------------------
Fertilizer in Oz
By: RE Date: November 14, 2021, 1:12 am
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This article gives you a few numbers to work with to start to
make some estimates of food supply next year.
The number on chemically fertilized vs organicallly fertilized
is a 30% lower yield for organic. Perrmies heree may dispute
that< I don't know. However, for going organic, you need
Manure. This also in short supply, and I imagine most of it is
already spoken for by farms that are already organic. So this
stuff won't be readily available for farms that run short of
chemical fertilizers.
What does this mean for price? Well, currently here in the Food
Superstores, the Eggs purported to be 100% organic (as opposed
to just "free range" come in about triple the price of the basic
industrial chicken egg.
Overall, I think it is fair to estimate a doubling in food
prices and a 20% decrease in total food production over the next
couple of years. What would this mean globally?
On the price level, in countries where the population already
spends 50% of their income on food, they would have nothing left
for everything else you need to survive. In Western countries,
more people would be unable to pay rent or buy gas to get to
work.
On the supply level, I remember reading at some point, the
amount of grain in storage globally is only enough to cover 8
months. More knowlegable people on this topic can correct me if
I am wrong. A steady deficit in production of 20% would burn
through the buffer in 3-4 years under normal circumstances, but
unless there is strict rationing, people in rich countries will
start to hoard food. Food exporting countries will limit or ban
exports. Not good for the food importers, which are many.
HTML https://www.indexmundi.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/agricultural-imports-and-exports.png
HTML https://www.indexmundi.com/blog/index.php/2013/02/19/food-exports-and-imports-worldwide/
* This data is from 2010. I'm pretty sure China is a net
importer now.
I'd like to see an updated map for 2020. You can pretty much
guarantee the greatest dieoff will come in the red colored
countries.
RE
Record-high fertiliser prices in Australia could disrupt food
supplies
HTML https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/12/record-high-fertiliser-prices-in-australia-could-disrupt-food-supplies
#Post#: 1643--------------------------------------------------
Re: Food Errata
By: Nearings fault Date: November 14, 2021, 8:00 am
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Most subsistence agriculture countries have massive fertilizer
subsidy programs. Those countries might go bust financing that
but the result would not be famine next year ...
#Post#: 1644--------------------------------------------------
Re: Food Errata
By: Digwe Must Date: November 14, 2021, 12:12 pm
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[quote author=RE link=topic=66.msg1641#msg1641 date=1636873922]
This article gives you a few numbers to work with to start to
make some estimates of food supply next year.
The number on chemically fertilized vs organicallly fertilized
is a 30% lower yield for organic. Perrmies heree may dispute
that< I don't know. However, for going organic, you need
Manure. This also in short supply, and I imagine most of it is
already spoken for by farms that are already organic. So this
stuff won't be readily available for farms that run short of
chemical fertilizers.
Record-high fertiliser prices in Australia could disrupt food
supplies
HTML https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/12/record-high-fertiliser-prices-in-australia-could-disrupt-food-supplies
[/quote][quote author=Nearings fault
link=topic=66.msg1643#msg1643 date=1636898425]
Most subsistence agriculture countries have massive fertilizer
subsidy programs. Those countries might go bust financing that
but the result would not be famine next year ...
[/quote]
Well, I'm going to have to stop reading RE's posts before
hitting the sack. Hunger. disease. Famine. Conflict. Sweet
dreams.
NF is correct that most countries that subsidize fertilizer will
do anything to get the stuff to farmers. Without it, famine and
chaos. But, the reason the price is going so high is obviously
a matter of availability. The fertilizer becomes a
geo-political hammer. If the Russians are willing to play
hardball with the EU over gas for heating, why would countries
that produce surplus fertilizer for export play the game
differently? The subsistence ag countries may be distributing
far less to their farmers, like it or not. Actual widespread
famine may be put off a year as NF suggests - (likely in my
opinion ) but if played poorly by TPTB it could get that bad
much quicker. The chances for a good global harvest this coming
year get thinner and thinner. (bad pun intended)
There is a big difference between switching to organic methods
and simply running out of chem fertilizer.
Are pesticides, herbicides, fungicides, still available? Crops
grown on dead soil without fertilizer will be very susceptible
to bugs, weeds and disease. Big Ag hasn't developed GMO seed
stock with the idea of organic agriculture. They have gone in
the opposite direction. Seeds are developed on the basis of
withstanding sprays, harsh chemicals and chem fertilizer. These
seed strains are unlikely to perform well - at least initially -
using organic methods. This includes soy which does not have the
nitrogen requirements but still needs the other chems.
There is no way that enough manure and other organics can be
found to fill the void in a year - or 5 years. More manure
requires more critters - you are correct that there are not huge
piles of manure just lying around waiting to be utilized. Also,
application equipment can differ from chem to organic and the
schedule of application differs.
A successful transition to organic from chemical ag by a large
producer (small scale is easier) takes time. Years. If thrust
suddenly into chem fertilizer unavailability I believe a 30%
yield reduction would be wildly optimistic. My own cheery
guesstimate would be at least a 50% reduction. There will be
exceptions of course. I am talking about yield on a national
scale. The Amish get 20 -30% less yield from their corn than
their chemmy neighbors. However, they are more profitable per
acre because they don't buy all the Monsanto crap. Here, for
the purposes of this discussion, we are concerned with a total
harvest of calories to get to people - not the long term
nutritional benefits to humans and soil from employing organic
methods.
There are two non-chemical techniques I'm aware of (likely more
are out there) that will bring soil back to health at an
accelerated pace on a large field scale. The first is green
manuring. Not to get too far into the weeds (another deliberate
bad pun I'm afraid) but a field can grow it's own fertilizer.
Green manure crops dramatically increase fertility and can be
used to repair soil such as breaking up hardpan with Daikon
radish, followed by alfalfa or another legume that will send
down deep roots and bring up previously unavailable nutrition.
Those plants are turned in making all that organic material
available to top layers of soil. This works very well - but the
problems using this method in the situation we're discussing are
obvious. This technique - it should be done in rotation - takes
a large fraction of a farmer's fields out of immediate market
crop production. This is a hit to yield and annual profit - for
the short term. It also requires hefty equipment use and
expensive seed with no immediate financial return.
To make the point, I plant trees every year. It's an addiction.
Around the base of the trees I sow Dutch white clover. This
competes well with the native rhizome grass, which will compete
with the baby trees if I don't hold it back, and it gives the
trees a steady, mild source of nitrogen. Two years ago the
price for a 5lb bag of clover seed was about $12. Last year it
was $20. Mrs. Digwe just bought a bag to spread now and the
price was $40!!! They say it was crop failure. Hmmm... In any
event, project this to a field scale in terms of seed cost and
it becomes even more difficult to not obtain a yield and
financially survive. Of course a government could subsidize
this (they won't ) but that still doesn't solve the problem of
growing enough calories this year and next year to feed the
people.
The other technique with a great track record is intensive
rotational grazing - which I've discussed here before. This
would accelerate a move away from grain fed to grass fed-
freeing up grain for humans and improving soil health. Again,
this is done in rotation. It takes time we don't have.
There are also ferments which, when brewed and applied
correctly, dramatically enhance the good soil biota, rapidly
increasing fertility. I love this technique but I am unaware of
large scale - big ag- trials. It is sprayed from tanks so does
not require much new equipment, but I think the rapid adaptation
by big ag is... unlikely to say the least.
It is possible to sow low growing clover under a corn crop to
increase fertility for the corn and the next planting. But
before I completely give myself to channeling Fukuoka I will
draw this epic to a close.
In short, we're fuckin' screwed.
Digwe Must
#Post#: 1648--------------------------------------------------
Re: Food Errata
By: RE Date: November 14, 2021, 1:24 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Nearings fault link=topic=66.msg1643#msg1643
date=1636898425]
Most subsistence agriculture countries have massive fertilizer
subsidy programs. Those countries might go bust financing that
but the result would not be famine next year ...
[/quote]
Of course, but if there is not enough to go round, the highest
bidders buy first and the low bidders are left twisting in the
wind. The fertilizer shelf at the feed store is empty. You
can't buy at any price.
I did not say there would be widespread famine next year. I
said it would take 3-4 years to develop if the situation
continue.
RE
#Post#: 1649--------------------------------------------------
Re: Food Quadruple Whammy
By: RE Date: November 14, 2021, 1:29 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=BuddyJ link=topic=66.msg1646#msg1646
date=1636915391]
[quote author=RE link=topic=66.msg1590#msg1590 date=1636696360]
OK, maybe the Worst Case Scenario doesn't happen next year. But
we still have 8 more years until 2030. Are you ready to bet
that things will improve in Ag over the next 8 years? Or do you
believe in Skittle Shitting Unicorn Food Replicators?
RE
[/quote]
I think some of us believe that those who predict Elon was going
under years ago aren't the ones you ask about the future.
[/quote]
Liar. I never said any such thing. I said Tesla makes no
money, which it doesn't. It's funded on debt. Tesla has a
mountain of it.
Further lies and disinformation will earn you a new ticket to
the Great Beyond.
RE
#Post#: 1655--------------------------------------------------
Re: Food Errata
By: Digwe Must Date: November 14, 2021, 4:15 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=RE link=topic=66.msg1648#msg1648 date=1636917898]
[quote author=Nearings fault link=topic=66.msg1643#msg1643
date=1636898425]
Most subsistence agriculture countries have massive fertilizer
subsidy programs. Those countries might go bust financing that
but the result would not be famine next year ...
[/quote]
Of course, but if there is not enough to go round, the highest
bidders buy first and the low bidders are left twisting in the
wind. The fertilizer shelf at the feed store is empty. You
can't buy at any price.
I did not say there would be widespread famine next year. I
said it would take 3-4 years to develop if the situation
continue.
RE
[/quote]
This 3 -4 year time frame makes sense to me given the trends in
energy/fertilizer, extreme weather and geo-politics. Another
black swan like the pandemic would accelerate the process,
perhaps rapidly - but a benign turn in the weather might delay
it. I don't know to what extent the supply chain issue is
manipulated, but if it continues late into 2022, that will also
have an impact. Increasing tensions make me think serious
international conflict will be likely in the that time frame,
and the virus related problems will still be with us. We also
can't overlook labor issues. Finding parts for John Deere farm
equipment is a treasure hunt.
Having said all that, there are fragile elements holding
commerce and finance together that could easily rip a seam in
the entire global economic system if they let go. This would
have a very fast, negative effect on global food distribution,
making the 3-4 year prediction seem rosy.
This general outcome has been obvious for a long time. The hell
is in the details.
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