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#Post#: 3249--------------------------------------------------
Global doom, or when life gets too expensive to live.
By: K-Dog Date: April 9, 2022, 5:55 pm
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Avian flu, but who gives a cluck?
Thanks for the links.
#Post#: 3283--------------------------------------------------
Peru Risks Hunger Spike on Fertilizer Shortages, Food Producers
Warn
By: RE Date: April 22, 2022, 7:04 am
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Why do I think this will get worse?
HTML https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-21/peru-risks-hunger-spike-on-fertilizer-shortages-food-group-says
Peru Risks Hunger Spike on Fertilizer Shortages, Food Producers
Warn
RE
#Post#: 3286--------------------------------------------------
Hunger and blackouts are just the start of an emerging economic
crisis
By: RE Date: April 22, 2022, 5:07 pm
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Storm Clouds on the Horizon.
HTML https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/04/21/business/economy-business/hunger-blackouts-emerging-economy-crisis/
Hunger and blackouts are just the start of an emerging economic
crisis
RE
#Post#: 3287--------------------------------------------------
Peru Risks Hunger
By: K-Dog Date: April 23, 2022, 9:53 am
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[quote author=RE link=topic=66.msg3283#msg3283 date=1650629083]
Why do I think this will get worse?
HTML https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-21/peru-risks-hunger-spike-on-fertilizer-shortages-food-group-says
Peru Risks Hunger Spike on Fertilizer Shortages, Food Producers
Warn
RE
[/quote]
We should believe a guy from a think thank? - In this case
yes.
HTML http://www.grade.org.pe/en/investigadores/personal/ezegarra/
* Eduardo Zegarra is an economist from the Pontifical Catholic
University of Peru and has a PhD in Agricultural and Applied
Economics from the University of Wisconsin
About GRADE :
HTML http://www.grade.org.pe/en/about-us/
Thanks to the work it has carried out over the last two decades,
GRADE is considered one of the most important social research
centers in Peru and Latin America.
I looked because I don't trust Bloomberg.
Good thing Peru is in the Southern Hemisphere. A fertilizer
shortage after crops have started to grow lasting only a few
weeks would lock in light harvests even if fertilizer arrived
later. Just my hunch. Different crops may respond differently.
#Post#: 3288--------------------------------------------------
Re: Food Errata
By: Digwe Must Date: April 23, 2022, 12:04 pm
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Good thing Peru is in the Southern Hemisphere. A fertilizer
shortage after crops have started to grow lasting only a few
weeks would lock in light harvests even if fertilizer arrived
later. Just my hunch. Different crops may respond differently.
You are right, KDog. For big heavy feeders like corn there
needs to be plenty of N in the soil at planting.
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrewSDMH_AI&list=TLPQMjEwNDIwMjIdcnWXVN2ndw&index=2
There is much interest among US farmers -since the fertilizer
price spike - in applying extracts from certain types of compost
(Johnson Su bioreactors ) brews at planting. Here is a young
rancher/farmer who did an experiment on a scale that has
significance. The economics are a consideration that has to be
considered as fert prices increase and availability is in
question. But what excites the folks in the field (no pun
intended) is the yield they can get without applying nitrogen.
Not as heavy - but still -200 bushels+ per acre. This is a
treatment that does not require vast investments in new
equipment or technology. Actually a ray of hope. The problem -
of course - is going to be big Ag. No money in it for them.
#Post#: 3298--------------------------------------------------
Re: Food Errata
By: Phil Potts Date: April 25, 2022, 4:11 am
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HTML https://www.malaymail.com/news/money/2022/04/22/soy-oil-surges-to-record-high-as-indonesia-bans-palm-oil-exports/2055137
#Post#: 3315--------------------------------------------------
Can the world feed itself? Historic fertiliser crunch threatens
food security
By: RE Date: May 1, 2022, 3:21 pm
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No.
HTML https://www.deccanherald.com/business/business-news/can-the-world-feed-itself-historic-fertiliser-crunch-threatens-food-security-1105578.html
Can the world feed itself? Historic fertiliser crunch threatens
food security
RE
#Post#: 3334--------------------------------------------------
Price of fertilizer on the steep rise — farmers unsure who, what
's to blame
By: RE Date: May 6, 2022, 3:10 am
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Any Farmer "unsure" of who to blame or why this is ongoing is a
few cans short of a six pack. ::)
HTML https://www.startribune.com/price-of-fertilizer-on-the-steep-rise-farmers-unsure-who-whats-to-blame/600170427/
Price of fertilizer on the steep rise — farmers unsure who,
what's to blame
RE
#Post#: 3335--------------------------------------------------
Re: Price of fertilizer on the steep rise — farmers unsure who,
what's to blame
By: Phil Potts Date: May 6, 2022, 4:40 am
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[quote author=RE link=topic=66.msg3334#msg3334 date=1651824609]
Any Farmer "unsure" of who to blame or why this is ongoing is a
few cans short of a six pack. ::)
HTML https://www.startribune.com/price-of-fertilizer-on-the-steep-rise-farmers-unsure-who-whats-to-blame/600170427/
Price of fertilizer on the steep rise — farmers unsure who,
what's to blame
RE
[/quote]
I'll just opine that now beef and lamb prices are climbing quite
noticeably here. Most of that just eat grass, so I don't think
fertilizer plays a part. 7 yrs ago when I did a short stint in
canaduh, I noticed meat price was 50% higher than in Oz with a
same value currency. Also if it is getting old and dark red it
would be marked down here, not so there. It has to be almost
brown before going on clearance, at least in the stores I saw.
Now I would say the prices here are what I saw there, then. I
always thought the porterhouse, sirloin grade cuts you sometimes
bought on special, were still a lot more expensive than the
every day price here. Those now about 27-29$/kg Cuts like lamb
chops, or rump steak 16-17$/kg. It was 10-11$ before. T bone or
lamb loin about 20$ now. Mince aka ground beef was about 7-9$
now maybe 11-13$. People are talking about adding bread crumbs
in to just make a burger.
Meanwhile, eggs, fruit, vegetables, bread that definitely need
fertilizer have increased 10-15% at a guess. I'm thinking just
the diesel increase from say avg 1.60 to 2.10 ( with a 22c
reduction in govt excise otherwise it would be 2.32) , would
account for that much price hike alone.
#Post#: 3340--------------------------------------------------
Food Errata
By: K-Dog Date: May 6, 2022, 11:19 pm
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No ****
May 6th, 2022
Not enough of it anyway. Last I checked everyone is still full
of ****, but that is not enough. We need more **** than we have.
**** is old school fertilizer, and fertilizer the world can't do
without. Not with the world population being what it is. Famine
will result without fertilizer.
Russia and Belarus provided almost half of world potash before
the civil wars in Ukraine escalated into the Russian invasion.
Potash is an essential ingredient in fertilizer. A huge part of
world fertilizer supply came from Russia. No more. Sanctions
stopped Russian fertilizer exports. This will result in famine
somewhere. Americans riding with Biden may be riding a skinny
horse.
The world has eight billion people. You can't feed eight billion
people if a quarter of world fertilizer vanishes overnight. Lack
of fertilizer reduces crop yield. Increased fertilizer cost
increases food cost, and the price of food is skyrocketing. A
doubling of fertilizer cost over the last year is part of the
reason it is.
In the last year, American bacon increased in price by 28%. I
like bacon, and I am very concerned. Covid-19 hit the bacon
supply chain hard, causing the price to increase for many
reasons. Why bringing home the bacon is costs more is a
complicated story. Feed, freight and labor costs have gone up,
but not only for bacon. Everywhere food costs more.
Modern food is fossil fuel. People do not consume calories as
they once did. Calories came from the sun, now people eat
petro-calories along with the regular calories in food. Oil and
natural gas became key ingredients of food decades ago.
Contemporary agricultural yields are impossible without
fertilizer. Fertilizer comes from fossil fuels. A salad and all
other American foods use petro-calories as a key ingredient.
Petro-calories should be part of the label of ingredients on
food packages. Listed along with the regular calories already
listed.
An agricultural revolution took place in the 1960s. A green
revolution that increased agricultural yield across the globe.
Chemical fertilizers and other agrochemicals like pesticides,
all made from fossil fuels were essential to the revolution.
Fossil fuels powered the green revolution in other ways as well.
Heavy mechanization, which the green revolution required,
consumes large amounts of fossil fuels. Modern food is a product
of oil and gas as much as Sols' rays.
Progress forced on the world by elite American interests put
everyone in a pickle. The 1960s green revolution grew population
beyond the ability of the sun's rays to feed the world. This
made a problem. Our agricultural systems can't run without
fossil fuels now. Once they could, but now they can't and loss
of Russian fertilizer may lead to world famine.
Famine was going to happen anyway, perhaps in a decade or so.
Certainly within two. I expected more of a slow, protracted
slide into misery. Not a jump off Seneca's cliff. American war
sanctions may prevent the world from eating wery soon.
How much do Americans understand? Not much. Sanctions are not
considered a cause of increased food prices.
In America, Ukraine is off the radar. Ukraine is not taken
seriously. Recipients of sanctions demonized, sanctions praised.
"Fertilizer is probably not going down for a year or more." says
Dion Letcher, a man in the fertilizer business in Minnesota.
Noting production from China, Venezuela, and Russia. Letcher
adds, "Because a lot of fertilizer comes from kind of dictator-y
countries that kind of don't like us too much."
But things are not that simple. From 2020 to 2021 fertilizer
prices approximately doubled. In the same time period U.S.
natural gas prices also doubled. Nitrogen production uses
natural gas. Other ingredients used in fertilizer production
also consume fossil fuels.
The agricultural revolution of the 1960s caused an increase in
nitrogen fertilizer use four times over what it had been. Modern
Green revolution crop yields depend on fertilizer. If energy
cost in America climbs so does fertilizer cost. The products are
tied together.
Russia produces 9% of global nitrogen fertilizer, 10% of global
phosphate fertilizer, and 20% of global potash fertilizer. On
the bottom of a giant fertilizer bag holding all the Russian
fertilizer exports, a label could give 9-10-20 for the N-P-K
ratio.
Russia exports more than two thirds of its production. Belarus
produces 17% of total global potash and exports almost all of
it.
Predicting doom and gloom is not consistent with American war
propaganda. Mainstream news articles say predicting commodity
prices is a fool’s errand. I do not spread American war
propaganda. I will not dilute clear cause and effect. Food cost
is going to go out of sight as crop yields drop. Yields will
drop because fertilizer is not available.
If the price of fertilizer exceeds expected revenue from using
it, fertilizer use is not profitable. Prices of food must rise.
Fertilizer cost could become thirty percent of a farmers budget
this year, double what it was a year ago. In another year, food
rationing might be necessary.
In America, food rationing was instituted in WWII to hold down
food prices. It may happen in America again. Across the US, more
than 19.5 million households are now food insecure. Covid-19
problems contributed to the number of food insecure. The actual
number is hard to know. If fertilizer remains expensive and
diesel fuel cost rises to choke the American economy, the number
of people needing assistance with food will be millions more
than now.
The cost of diesel is already high enough to choke the
economy.ted revenue from using it, fertilizer use is not
profitable. Prices of food must rise. Fertilizer cost could
become thirty percent of a farmers budget this year, double what
it was a year ago. In another year, food rationing might be
necessary.
In America, food rationing was instituted in WWII to hold down
food prices. It may happen in America again. Across the US, more
than 19.5 million households are now food insecure. Covid-19
problems contributed to the number of food insecure. The actual
number is hard to know. If fertilizer remains expensive and
diesel fuel cost rises to choke the American economy, the number
of people needing assistance with food will be millions more
than now.
The cost of diesel is already high enough to choke the economy.
*
*
*
*
*
A couple of minor edits from what I posted on my webpage today.
Again I thank the collapse team for inspiration.
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