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#Post#: 766--------------------------------------------------
Re: Shortages & JIT Problems
By: Phil Potts Date: August 21, 2021, 2:17 pm
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Before I started reading it, I thought I had a fair idea of what
the problem is. It didn't take long to confirm. Casual gig work
for one and/or **** pay nowhere near inflation.
1 the restaurant who can't find bartenders and servers to cover
bridal events. Says before pandemic got plenty of applicasnts,
now they might not turn up for an interview even if they apply.
So she didn't have regular, full time, permanent staff, just
hired on/off as needed. They need to spend a day of travel to
and from and getting interviewed to travel again and get maybe
a 4 hour gig and get 60$ before tax. And then in a world that
suits the owner, they don't look for regular hours, just stand
by waiting to be available the next time they get called.
2. The precision machining shop. He says he's competing with
Amazon and mcdonalds and even training less experienced staff.
So the problem is not being able to offer a fully skilled
machinist the same as unskilled and lowest pay job. McDonald's
hires 15-17 yr olds to pay less than adult rates and those jobs
are just pocket money for kids still supported by parents.
So he's complaining that he can only find people with already
some experience but not as much as he would prefer, to take a
crap hourly rate that doesn't buy a home and car and pay the
bills.
3."The burrito chain Chipotle, for example, raised prices 3.5%
to 4% this summer, after boosting its average pay to $15 an
hour." It doesn't "boost prices and raise pay". I remember 5-10
years ago seeing all the furore over calls for a 15$ minimum
wage in that industry. 4% inflation over one summer is not an
indication of the food inflation of even that whole year, let
alone the last ten when they already needed 15$. Fuel prices
have stayed high and keep edging higher for the whole of this
year so far. Staying home and using a snap card that provides a
set amount of food might be a better way to eat than paying for
gas and getting 12$ hr at Chipotle.
They said one in three under 40 are reconsidering their career..
that doesn't mean retiring comfortably already or starting a
long course of study at 35. It means looking for a job they can
live on, ya wally!
#Post#: 767--------------------------------------------------
Re: Shortages & JIT Problems
By: RE Date: August 21, 2021, 5:34 pm
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Raising wages wouldn't help that much, since it would drive
price inflation as employers raised their prices to pay the
higher salaries. In the best times, the whole wage-price thing
is balanced out so if you make the average wage, you have JUST
enough to cover basic bills. Want anything else, you go in DEBT
for it. Dental bills for your kid? DEBT to the Dentista.
Tranny goes on the car? CC DEBT. etc. When the system goes
OUT of balance, you need DEBT just to cover basic bills. The
system has been WAY out of balance for quite some time. It
should have failed by now, except for the extend & pretend game
expanding Goobermint debt exponentially. Anybody's guess how
log that will continue to last.
RE
#Post#: 768--------------------------------------------------
Re: Shortages & JIT Problems
By: Nearings fault Date: August 21, 2021, 9:00 pm
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When I hear the old "people don't want to work" cliché I usually
add "for you" onto the end. Yes people work for money but they
also want to build trust and like to believe that someone has
their back. Industries that have spent decades proving just how
much they don't give a crap about the people they hire should
not be surprised that they have run out of suckers.
#Post#: 769--------------------------------------------------
Re: Shortages & JIT Problems
By: K-Dog Date: August 22, 2021, 3:57 am
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[quote]"There is just more churn than normal," says Betsey
Stevenson, a former White House economist who is now at the
University of Michigan. "It's like a giant game of musical
chairs, and it's taking everyone longer than usual to find a
good seat for themselves."[/quote]
Good seats are in short supply.
#Post#: 770--------------------------------------------------
Re: Shortages & JIT Problems
By: Digwe Must Date: August 22, 2021, 10:30 am
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"Sounds like keeping a Doomstead supplied and in good working
order is already getting pretty difficult. Also true is
Murphy's Law: No matter how many spare parts you have prepped
up with, you always need the one thing you DON'T have. LOL.
Owning a junk yard to cannibalize for spare parts might be a
good bizness to be in."
RE
I believe a salvage business would be a great gig right now and
in the future. I have said to others that we are entering an age
of salvage. We (or those who follow) will be picking over the
bones of empire to make a living. Couple the salvage with some
welding and mechanical skill and an innovative mindset and a
person will be very busy.
You are right, RE. You can't have everything you'll need and
you can't have every skill you'll need. For that matter you
can't keep your eyes open 24/7. You ain't going make it alone.
As I think about our situation in this regard I consider a
rollcall of our neighbors. Next to us about a 1/4 mile away is
a retired electrician and his retired nurse wife. Next to them
is a fellow who worked as a mechanic for the state for 35 years.
In a different direction lives a guy who just retired from
running a beer distributorship. He is always making cool stuff
in his shop - also a hell of a good shot. In that same general
direction about a mile away is the couple who just retired from
running the local VFD and EMT service. That is just a sampling
of some skills available around here. The obvious problem is
that the entire neighborhood is comprised of old farts. It's
not a sexy place to live. The cell reception is terrible and
there is no high speed internet. The children all moved into
towns and cities. The skills they are acquiring are much
different - centered around electronic devices. As we drop off
who fills in?
If you want to sit in a coffee shop surrounded by people staring
into their phones you have to drive a half hour. If you require
a real hipster community you'll be driving for a while.
Regarding any labor shortage, I also think there is a lot of
under-the-table gig work going on. More than usual. I see this
accelerating.
Then there is the problem of the health and fitness of the young
in the US. If (when) things deteriorate to an extent that
requires physical work from people to feed themselves, the
generation that follows ours is in deep sh*t. I find it hard to
imagine many of the young I see ever putting up hay or firewood
by hand - even partially assisted by machines. There's no app
for that and it is going to be very difficult for anyone 50lb
overweight. One can, of course, learn a great deal about
gardening and growing food online. However, at some point
someone actually has to fork the manure into the wheelbarrow and
take it to the garden and then spread it or dig it in. Not the
way to get "likes".
Speaking of work I gotta go move the sheep.
#Post#: 772--------------------------------------------------
Re: Shortages & JIT Problems
By: Digwe Must Date: August 22, 2021, 2:31 pm
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"The good news being, it is unlikely that conditions are going
to go from "now" to "Amish" without seeing it coming in the
developed world. It certainly isn't there yet. Folks have been
fighting for Amish living standards since the glory days of the
hippies, and for the same reasons, Eco doom, authoritarianism,
bad US government, end of resources, and on and on. And
yet...here we all are...half a century later...and we ain't
Amish yet."
I see this a lot. People seem to think if something requires
increased human physical effort it's either Amish or primitive.
Why?
When I was young (we wrote on clay cuneiform tablets) stevedores
unloaded ships handling cargo by hand, with nets, handcarts etc.
It wasn't Amish. There were more than 4 meatpacking companies
in the US and much of that work was done the old fashioned way.
Some places still split lamb by hand with a "lamb splitter" - a
giant cleaver - while other outfits were running power saws.
Neither was primitive or Amish, it's just that the work took a
team of men with skill and more physical effort than the same
work requires today. The building of a good house required far
more skill than it does today. Many different trades were
involved and people had to know their sh*t. And I don't mean
they took a picture of their lunch.
This year I had to make our own fence posts and rails. They
were unavailable at the farm supply store or VERY expensive.
Luckily I had cedar available that had to be thinned anyway. I
did the cutting with a very non-Amish chainsaw and paid a local
guy $15 an hour to peel them (sharpened shovel and a drawknife.)
The posts cost me about 1/3 of what I would have had to pay at
the farm store and there is no toxic residue or huge energy
footprint in manufacturing or distributing. I'm the supply
chain.
Gas and oil do not have to disappear for alternatives to make
sense. They just need to be expensive. Cutting and burning
firewood for heat beats the hell out of going broke trying to
pay heating bills. A guy can make a living selling firewood.
I've done it in hard times. We are already seeing people - more
all the time - who are successful at raising real food on small
acreage with labor intensive methods. They make a good living
but it takes real work.
People are going to need to be adaptable and innovative. What I
see are a generation of folks who can't find their way out of a
mall without their phones. They can't use a compass or map and
are only vaguely aware that the sun rises in the east. Hardship
is not getting a parking space close to the entrance. I don't
believe in generational blame. These folks have been programmed
to be skilled consumers. The programming has been successful.
These people are excellent at consuming and they feel entitled
to it and must share it with the world. The future will require
more of them than that. Unfortunately, many have physically
handicapped themselves with obesity and related illnesses,
making adapting to a more demanding future problematic.
We disagree about the pace of collapse. I am surrounded by the
evidence of an accelerating downward spiral. I think the
current crises of general shortages and supply issues are just
the beginning. I don't know how agricultural production is in
your area - but in Washington State the spring wheat crop is
graded 88% poor. This isn't the thread to talk about the
climate or ecological disaster - but it is here now.
The future is not going to be Amish. (except for the Amish) For
one thing that would require religious conversion and pacifism.
However, a closer connection to nature is certainly desirable
for many reasons. One does not have to be dipped in patchouli
oil to see that. By the way, the Amish make a hell of a good
wood fired cookstove and wood fired water heater.
The descent will be uneven and unequal. Traditional skills will
be of value.
Innovate. Mitigate. Adapt. Evolve. Survive. Pick up a shovel.
#Post#: 774--------------------------------------------------
Re: Shortages & JIT Problems
By: Digwe Must Date: August 23, 2021, 11:05 am
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Buddy J
Thanks for your reply.
I started this last night but lost it when I tried to copy a
graph from Limits to Growth. I decided to try again this
morning and it magically re-appeared. (reappeared mostly in
bold face ??) In a way it's good that I lost it because
following that I realized that I wasn't going to convince you of
anything anyway. No need to drag out graphs, charts and
relating anecdotes.
As long as the current system works for you and yours it is
unlikely that you will recognize and acknowledge collapse or
even serious disruption of that system. If your idea of real
crisis was the 70s oil embargo then God bless you. There is
that old-standby quote from Upton Sinclair: "It is difficult to
get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon
his not understanding it."
Last night:
Thanks for the well reasoned response. you make interesting
points and I'd like to respond. Hopefully I can be coherent.
It's been a long day.
By the way, I can't seem to make the quote highlight doodad work
- so you'll have to put up with my ineptitude.
Do you recall "Limits to Growth" put out by the Club of Rome
back in the 70s? Donella Meadows and company did some pretty
good work.
From Wikipedia:
In 2008, physicist Graham Turner[b] at the Commonwealth
Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in
Australia published a paper called "A Comparison of 'The Limits
to Growth' with Thirty Years of Reality".[12] It compared the
past thirty years of data with the scenarios laid out in the
1972 book and found that changes in industrial production, food
production, and pollution are all congruent with one of the
book's three scenarios—that of "business as usual". This
scenario in Limits points to economic and societal collapse in
the 21st century.[43] In 2010, Nørgård, Peet, and Ragnarsdóttir
called the book a "pioneering report". They said that, "its
approach remains useful and that its conclusions are still
surprisingly valid ... unfortunately the report has been largely
dismissed by critics as a doomsday prophecy that has not held up
to scrutiny."[3]
In 2020, an analysis by Gaya Herrington (Sustainability and
Dynamic System Analysis Lead at KPMG in the United States but in
a personal capacity) was published in Yale's Journal of
Industrial Ecology.[51] The study assessed whether, given key
data known in 2020 about factors important for the "Limits to
Growth" report, the original report's conclusions are supported.
In particular, the 2020 study examined updated quantitative
information about ten factors, namely population, fertility
rates, mortality rates, industrial output, food production,
services, non-renewable resources, persistent pollution, human
welfare, and ecological footprint, and concluded that the
"Limits to Growth" prediction is essentially correct in that
continued economic growth is unsustainable under a "business as
usual" model.[51] The study found that current empirical data is
broadly consistent with the 1972 projections, and that if major
changes to the consumption of resources are not undertaken,
economic growth will peak and then rapidly decline by around
2040.[52]
There is the famous graph. I can't seem to copy and paste it.
You've probably seen it. It shows human population peaking and
declining well after food and industrial production peak and
decline. That seems pretty logical to me. In other words, in
their scenario collapse is well underway before the human
population shrinks. When adding climate disruption into the
mix, I believe we are bringing collapse into play now - well
ahead of 2040.
As I said, I believe collapse is uneven and unequal. If you
live in Ethiopia, or Honduras or Lebanon or Haiti it's kicking
in the front door. Here, It's waiting in the car outside.
If you aren't aware of the rapidly deepening global ecological
collapse then there is nothing I can say that will bring it
home. It's here. Look around.
For only one example, the world is on the brink of several water
wars.
HTML https://www.dw.com/en/tensions-rise-as-iranian-dams-cut-off-iraqi-water-supplies/a-58764729
HTML https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210816-how-water-shortages-are-brewing-wars
Your point about the innovations in fracking technology is well
taken. Of course those innovations were only possible as a
result of immense government subsidy. When the ponzi/tax
charade no longer suffices I expect fossil fuel production to be
mandated.
Back to this morning.
I am surrounded by ongoing ecological catastrophe. And I live
in a relatively healthy place. (Although for weeks this summer
the thick grey air and blood red sun made it feel like Mordor.)
Dramatic losses in insect and bird populations are the most
obvious, but there is so much more. Entire tree species are
winking out. They have nowhere to run. The climate is now
changing so rapidly that natural phyto-migration doesn't come
close to keeping up. So, I'm ordering tree seeds from much
farther south. A drop in the bucket and perhaps futile - but we
do what we can do. All this ongoing decline in the health of
the natural world, if one is ensconced in a city or suburb, is
likely to go unnoticed, or at least unacknowledged. I get that.
Just because people can still go to McDs doesn't mean the Amazon
is functioning as intended.
Just because you can go to the lumberyard for a 2x4 doesn't mean
the forests are healthy - or even surviving.
We haven't even touched on the increasing likelihood of major
war between the big boys and serious geo-political disruption
with the resulting drain on resources and toll of human misery.
Collapse, as I see it, is a process that has been underway for a
while and will go on for a while yet. There will be stages of
various duration. For some, for a while, it might indeed seem
like "downsizing". The overall trend is accelerating and there
is no serious attempt at scale to mitigate impact. I don't see
collapse as a single event or final state of being. In my view,
skewed by reality, we are past the point of no return. As the
natural systems are violently disrupted the human systems
(constructs) don't stand a chance. I don't need to see the
elite and their minions boarding the the private jet for New
Zealand before I recognize it.
For many years I wondered if we were living through the collapse
and passing of an empire or something much larger - the passing
of a civilization. I don't wonder anymore.
#Post#: 775--------------------------------------------------
Re: Shortages & JIT Problems
By: RE Date: August 23, 2021, 4:08 pm
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Collapse is a PROCESS, not an individual event. Any given
location can be at any given stage of the process at any given
time. What is important here is the trajectory, and the rate of
change. It's a calculus problem. You also have past tense
versus present tense to deal with. Some places like Somalia for
instance HAVE COLLAPSED. Others ARE COLLAPSING. Is there any
place on Earth that is NOT collapsing, in one way or another?
In the future tense, is there anywhere on Earth you can identify
that is NOT collapsing, or already collapsed? Is there
somewhere you could go today where things are getting better
rather than worse? On the calculus level, do you see the rate
of change as slowing or accelerating?
To me, it is no more than a question of how LONG it will take
for the process to complete itself. Things are certainly a
whole lot worse now than when I began observing the process in
2007. I expect they will be a whole lot worse than this a
decade from now. The trajectory is all downhill, far as I can
see.
RE
#Post#: 778--------------------------------------------------
Re: Shortages & JIT Problems
By: RE Date: August 23, 2021, 8:38 pm
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You need Webster to tell you what collapse is? I doubt the
editors there spend any more time revising the definition for
that word than they do any of the other ones in the english
language.
Collapse is like Pornography, you can't define it but you know
it when you see it.
Anyhow, you didn't answer the questions I posed, so I see no
reason to answer yours. If you don't think we are immersed in
collapse, nothing I say can change your mind. I already tried
that tactic, explaining it to people who do not want to accept
it is a waste of time and energy. Clearly however, collapse has
not yet arrived for you.
RE
#Post#: 780--------------------------------------------------
Re: Shortages & JIT Problems
By: RE Date: August 23, 2021, 11:28 pm
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Somalia is a random example of a place you likely would not like
to live. I could run down a long list of other ones, from
Afghanistan to Zambia in alphabetical order like Webster's
dictionary.
You seem to think WV or the Smokies would be a good place, but
most people never chose to live there. Mainly only poor people
with no way out got stuck living there. Why go live there NOW,
other than to avoid the collapse somewhere else? It is also
unlikely WV is becoming a better place to live than it was,
otherwise more people would move there. In fact the population
there dwindles, as in most rural locations in the FSoA.
As to the rate of collapse, apparently it is not rapid enough
for you to consider it so. My opinion is it is plenty fast. As
big a shithole as the FSoA was in 2007 when I began writing
about collapse, it is an order of magnitude worse today. Do you
wish to make the case it is getting better? Staying even?
Those are your only 3 choices here.
RE
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