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#Post#: 1905--------------------------------------------------
Re: Energy Errata
By: K-Dog Date: November 30, 2021, 11:43 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Nearings fault link=topic=49.msg1830#msg1830
date=1637803998]
[quote author=Phil Potts link=topic=49.msg1827#msg1827
date=1637791085]
HTML https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Electric-vehicles-are-not-the-greenhouse-silver-bullet-many-think
[/quote]
That is a quality article that outlines the complexity of the
transition to EVs.
Thank you.
[/quote]
Yes, good perspective. In summary:
There is a higher initial CO2 bump when EVs are made. After
that the greenness of an EV depends on the greenness of the
electricity which charges the battery.
Thus counties that use no green energy gain nothing from EVs.
With a known average life for an EV a simple equation would be:
Fossil Fuel Impact. FFI = Initial Manufactured Carbon IMC +
Electric Carbon Per Kilometer ECPK * Average Battery Kilometers
ABK
FFI = IMC + (ECPK * ABK)
IMC is fixed with low ECPK and high ABK giving the best FFi.
High ABK is desired because new cars with new IMC terms are not
needed as replacements.
Ev's should be built to last forever with batteries that can be
swapped out. to make the greenness EVs possible.
Batteries will have an average life but electric motors don't
really wear out as fossil fuel engines do. My equation needs
more refinement to accommodate wear and lifetime issues of
parts. It is just an idea of how data measured in the article
could be used. An analogous equation can be built for fossil
fuel cars and the two options can be compared.
#Post#: 1910--------------------------------------------------
Re: Energy Errata
By: Phil Potts Date: December 1, 2021, 2:45 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
For now, our tracking and monitoring devices need regular
charging, so blackouts of more than a day can't be allowed. Nord
stream2 would be fully certified in 5 minutes if euros couldn't
digitally check in everywhere they go and started talking to
each other face to face. When ppl are chipped that can change,
because satellites and antennae don't rely on your domicile
having the lectrik.
#Post#: 1914--------------------------------------------------
Re: What Happens If Europe Runs Out Of Gas
By: Phil Potts Date: December 1, 2021, 6:52 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=BuddyJ link=topic=49.msg1911#msg1911
date=1638400248]
[quote author=Phil Potts link=topic=49.msg1901#msg1901
date=1638312516]
[quote author=BuddyJ link=topic=49.msg1900#msg1900
date=1638311556]
BuddyJ doesn't do tinkerbell collapse folks.
[/quote]
Like refusing to recognise cancer until pt is dead.
[/quote]
The result of life is death. Why are you so concerned with the
when and why? Is your life not satisfying in some way, that you
require a constant fixation not on the wonder of the journey but
the fact of its end?
[quote author=Phil Potts]
The electric grid is necessary for the control grid. There needs
to be enough lektrik for people to charge their digital tracking
devices, not just the online library at the agency. Less ice
privileged people means less energy consumed and the longer the
control grid can continue controlling. Living in dystopia,
waiting your turn to be put on ice is collapsed civilization to
me.
[/quote]
Sounds like you are quite disappointed with the world you live
in. But that alone shouldn't instill in you some irrational fear
of the consequences of living.
[/quote]
I thought working to prolong my own and progenies lives
indicated I value them. If I thought there was nothing to talk
about until after there is no net or refrigeration, you would
have a good point.
I'm seeing a few governors and judges over there also not ready
to replace the anthem with, 'land of Faustian bargain and home
of the Stockholm syndrome'. I'm not interested in the
comfortable slavery lifestyle. Democracy here is finally fully
dead, so I'm an anarchist.
HTML https://youtu.be/4wv2K3J__X0
#Post#: 1915--------------------------------------------------
Re: Energy Errata
By: monsta666 Date: December 1, 2021, 7:16 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=RE link=topic=49.msg1904#msg1904 date=1638328762]
It does seem highly unlikely gas would run out so quick, but I
also don't think BoJo can maintain a "market" approach if a
significant number of Brits are priced out of keeping the flat
warm. What is a significant number? 5%? 10%? You can't have
a significant number of people unable to afford heat in a
Western country. That is political suicide.
Pipeline Politics also factor in. How much can you actually get
shipped in from Mother Russia? What alternative suppliers can
you tap into? How fast can it be delivered?
Even if this winter has enough gas, this would be a good time to
start aclimatising to the cold. How long can you sit outside
smoking a cancerette when it is below freezing? How cold can
you keep your flat and stay comfortable?
RE
[/quote]
In the UK Ofgem; the government regulator for energy manages
prices across the industry. Every six months they mandate that
prices cannot rise above a set amount to protect consumers from
going bankrupt due to rapidly increasing prices. The price cap
is also there to contain profit margins and ensure there is
competition in the market. In the latest instance Ofgem allowed
prices to rise by 12% which is a record hike. However despite
this price increase numerous energy firms have gone bust. Since
1st September 2021 3.8 million households have lost their
primary energy supplier.
[B]Firms going bust since 1st September 2021[/b]
HTML https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/14439/production/_121910038_optimised-energy_gone_bust-nc.png
In normal circumstances when a energy supplier goes bankrupt
there are provisions in place that means customers still gets
energy and the bills they pay simply get switched over to
another provider. The big exception to this switching rule
occurred when Bulb Energy went bust as it was simply not
possible to switch 1.7 million customers to another company that
quickly. Instead of the big switch what happened is the company
went into a special type of administration where the government
has effectively taken control of the firm. If more and more big
firms die then perhaps there could be a scenario where the
government nationalises the entire industry through stealth. It
should be noted that bigger firms have more capacity to weather
the storm of high prices for longer. If high prices persist
however then things could get dicey. Who goes first the consumer
or big business? You can pop a guess there given what I just
explained. In any cases prices increases of 12% twice a year are
not sustainable even in the medium term (2-5 year timeframe I am
talking about) especially in this current climate of highish
inflation.
#Post#: 1917--------------------------------------------------
Re: What Happens If Europe Runs Out Of Gas
By: Phil Potts Date: December 1, 2021, 8:49 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=BuddyJ link=topic=49.msg1916#msg1916
date=1638408994]
[quote author=Phil Potts link=topic=49.msg1914#msg1914
date=1638406378]
I thought working to prolong my own and progenies lives
indicated I value them.
[/quote]
You are biologically bound to do so. Same as any mammal defends
themselves from attack, defends their progeny from harm, etc
etc.
None of this precludes individual fear of one's demise, or
projecting that into the world at large.
[/quote]
You're barking up the wrong tree on fear of death here, that's
mostly for the guilty of conscience.
There are exceptions to genus homo being K selected, typically
narcissists. Pessimists are proven to be more realistic than
optimists as well.
HTML https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/R/K_selection_theory
#Post#: 1918--------------------------------------------------
Re: Energy Errata
By: RE Date: December 1, 2021, 9:26 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=monsta666 link=topic=49.msg1915#msg1915
date=1638407781]
[quote author=RE link=topic=49.msg1904#msg1904 date=1638328762]
It does seem highly unlikely gas would run out so quick, but I
also don't think BoJo can maintain a "market" approach if a
significant number of Brits are priced out of keeping the flat
warm. What is a significant number? 5%? 10%? You can't have
a significant number of people unable to afford heat in a
Western country. That is political suicide.
Pipeline Politics also factor in. How much can you actually get
shipped in from Mother Russia? What alternative suppliers can
you tap into? How fast can it be delivered?
Even if this winter has enough gas, this would be a good time to
start aclimatising to the cold. How long can you sit outside
smoking a cancerette when it is below freezing? How cold can
you keep your flat and stay comfortable?
RE
[/quote]
In the UK Ofgem; the government regulator for energy manages
prices across the industry. Every six months they mandate that
prices cannot rise above a set amount to protect consumers from
going bankrupt due to rapidly increasing prices. The price cap
is also there to contain profit margins and ensure there is
competition in the market. In the latest instance Ofgem allowed
prices to rise by 12% which is a record hike. However despite
this price increase numerous energy firms have gone bust. Since
1st September 2021 3.8 million households have lost their
primary energy supplier.
[B]Firms going bust since 1st September 2021[/b]
HTML https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/14439/production/_121910038_optimised-energy_gone_bust-nc.png
In normal circumstances when a energy supplier goes bankrupt
there are provisions in place that means customers still gets
energy and the bills they pay simply get switched over to
another provider. The big exception to this switching rule
occurred when Bulb Energy went bust as it was simply not
possible to switch 1.7 million customers to another company that
quickly. Instead of the big switch what happened is the company
went into a special type of administration where the government
has effectively taken control of the firm. If more and more big
firms die then perhaps there could be a scenario where the
government nationalises the entire industry through stealth. It
should be noted that bigger firms have more capacity to weather
the storm of high prices for longer. If high prices persist
however then things could get dicey. Who goes first the consumer
or big business? You can pop a guess there given what I just
explained. In any cases prices increases of 12% twice a year are
not sustainable even in the medium term (2-5 year timeframe I am
talking about) especially in this current climate of highish
inflation.
[/quote]
Definitely goobermint subsidies have so far kept the heat and
electricity flowing out to consumers in the UK. Just like
India's Fertilizer subsidy makes that affordable for the
farmers. But where does India actually get the money to provide
this subsidy? More debt, more money printing, of course.
Everybody is doing that now, thus the high inflation rate. So
now the question becomes, how long will the supplier of the
energy (mainly Russia) keep accepting Indian Rupees in return
for the NG? Or Dollars, Euros, Pounds etc. It's all
irredeemable debt.
Now Vlad could simply Impale all of Europe and just close the
valve. That would of course initiate WW3, which he doesn't want
to do. So he will try to exact economic and political
concessions and dribble out the gas, for a while. How long is a
while? How small a Ration can he pipe to Europe without
initiating WW3? How little can the UK still function on? Those
are the questions to ponder on.
RE
#Post#: 1923--------------------------------------------------
Re: What Happens If Europe Runs Out Of Gas
By: Phil Potts Date: December 2, 2021, 6:03 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=BuddyJ link=topic=49.msg1922#msg1922
date=1638485468]
[quote author=Phil Potts link=topic=49.msg1917#msg1917
date=1638413388]
[quote author=BuddyJ link=topic=49.msg1916#msg1916
date=1638408994]
None of this precludes individual fear of one's demise, or
projecting that into the world at large.
[/quote]
You're barking up the wrong tree on fear of death here, that's
mostly for the guilty of conscience.
[/quote]
Oh, I'm not talking about those whom might already fear....who
knows....everything...or perhaps they have a religious
upbringing or whatever. I'm talking about those who might not
even know how strongly they project their fears into their
online hobbies and conversations, hopes and dreams.
As far as pessimism, there is nothing wrong with it. There is no
need for anyone to be a pessimist to recognize that none of us
will survive long term, nor the planet itself. Facts work that
way, reality. Pessimism is no more required of perma doomers
than the ability to read. The only thing required is belief. The
internet just makes it easy for those who believe to find the
information they want to support their perspective.
[/quote]
You said fear of one's own demise, ie fear of death. That is not
about the people who filled their closets with toilet paper and
stampede in whatever direction eugenecists like gates and schwab
suggest. It's about an afterlife and that is independent of
religion. Those who fear death suspect the universe is just,
just like those who do not fear it and even welcome a relatively
early 'good death'. They don't need bodies buried in their
backyard, run of the mill careerist duplicity is probably enough
to be uneasy about.
As for the planet having only a few trillion years left and not
being immortal, RE has said 'until the sun goes red giant' and
that he doesn't expect to live long, plenty of times.
Obviously you should be saying who exactly believes what
exactly, that they used the internet to find confirmation of?
Let's have the relevant facts and reality, then you may be able
to at least take comfort in X being wrong, before making the
inferential leap to Y and Z also being wrong about something
entirely different.
#Post#: 1927--------------------------------------------------
Re: What Happens If Europe Runs Out Of Gas
By: Phil Potts Date: December 3, 2021, 4:52 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=BuddyJ link=topic=49.msg1925#msg1925
date=1638507622]
[quote author=Phil Potts link=topic=49.msg1923#msg1923
date=1638489827]
[quote author=BuddyJ link=topic=49.msg1922#msg1922
date=1638485468]
[quote author=Phil Potts link=topic=49.msg1917#msg1917
date=1638413388]
[quote author=BuddyJ link=topic=49.msg1916#msg1916
date=1638408994]
None of this precludes individual fear of one's demise, or
projecting that into the world at large.
[/quote]
You're barking up the wrong tree on fear of death here, that's
mostly for the guilty of conscience.
[/quote]
Oh, I'm not talking about those whom might already fear....who
knows....everything...or perhaps they have a religious
upbringing or whatever. I'm talking about those who might not
even know how strongly they project their fears into their
online hobbies and conversations, hopes and dreams.
As far as pessimism, there is nothing wrong with it. There is no
need for anyone to be a pessimist to recognize that none of us
will survive long term, nor the planet itself. Facts work that
way, reality. Pessimism is no more required of perma doomers
than the ability to read. The only thing required is belief. The
internet just makes it easy for those who believe to find the
information they want to support their perspective.
[/quote]
You said fear of one's own demise, ie fear of death. That is not
about the people who filled their closets with toilet paper and
stampede in whatever direction eugenecists like gates and schwab
suggest.
[/quote]
This IS about people filling their closets with toilet paper, as
they project their own demise into something else (DOOM!) and at
least then can handle it in a reasonable (or not so reasonable)
way.
[quote author=Phil Potts]
As for the planet having only a few trillion years left and not
being immortal, RE has said 'until the sun goes red giant' and
that he doesn't expect to live long, plenty of times.
[/quote]
He has. He isn't a good example of the doomers projecting their
fears into collecting toilet paper. RE has done it more as a
hobby. It is the serious ones that you have to watch out for.
[quote author=Phil Potts]
Obviously you should be saying who exactly believes what
exactly, that they used the internet to find confirmation of?
[/quote]
Are you implying that you haven't seen people who can only
discuss the side of the issue they have researched? They aren't
hard to find at all.
[quote author=Phil Potts]
Let's have the relevant facts and reality, then you may be able
to at least take comfort in X being wrong, before making the
inferential leap to Y and Z also being wrong about something
entirely different.
[/quote]
Oh, you'll have to explain that request. My doomer career began
with peak oilers. Asking myself, what in engineering or geology
or economics these folks didn't understand, to be drawing such
wacky conclusions? Everything after those first 6 months has
been an examination of the psychology of faith based systems. It
isn't about comfort, it isn't about making leaps, it has been
collecting data in real time, waiting and watching as claims are
made, deadlines pass, and the world just keeps meandering on.
15+ years of real time evidence amongst about every doomer clan
there is. Powerswitchers, I bump into the website owners if I
can, ask RE, I talk to them on the phone, join their websites
and participate, spoke to Ruppert on via web call, do chats
during their radio and web video shows, go to their conferences,
exchange emails, and so on and so forth. Did a weird
conversation with David Hughes on REs old website when David
pulled a huge boner. Took that example right to some interested
scientists, that we might all be stunned together at his answer.
There is no right or wrong here Phil, there are just
observations, evidence, and hypotheses as to why some folks are
the way they are, and to what lengths they will go when they
truly believe. Or not. A moderator at peakoil.com committed
suicide, such is the power of these beliefs. Do you know his
username and approximate age? I do.
[/quote]
The worldwide run on toilet paper began in early 2020. The polar
opposite people to the 'perma doomers' suddenly needed something
comforting when they were told to be scared. What would cause
you to think it was the 'beans bullets and bullion , govt
engages in false flags' crowd.
I never followed peakoil.com but noticed you were particularly
bothered by Matt Savinar. If he suicided, why was it not for the
usual reasons; relationship, financial pressure, chronic pain,
loneliness?
Ruppert was well known for peak oil and apparently suicided. I
thought it was
Ruppert that only about a week ago you described as a
pamphleteer, one thing not recorded in his illustrious career of
law enforcement, author of numerous books, radio host, and
subject of several documentaries. Given he spent the 70s in the
police before blowing the lid on drug dealing corruption by the
drug squad, He was probably born in the early 50s and would have
been around 70 now.
You should periodically review notes and records of billable
work in tracking and countering potential threats like Ruppert.
Filing the Facebook page of GM/SUN for future reference, after
going to their meeting undercover should have been cross
referenced with her husband's conversation to you on Ruppert at
the time of his demise. LD of course asked you to be specific
about what Ruppert was wrong about, as he had been a reader of
his work that had been correct in predicting the 2008 financial
crisis, years in advance.
I have no idea what discussing only the side someone has
researched, has to do with asking you to be specific about who
is wrong about what and then what that has to do with anyone
else.
I thought DD was REs only website, guess not.
One minute you're saying you always get banned, now you're
saying you participate and interact. All I know is you can't
participate by simply saying everyone is wrong and refusing to
give any reasons.
#Post#: 1929--------------------------------------------------
Re: What Happens If Europe Runs Out Of Gas
By: RE Date: December 3, 2021, 5:38 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Phil Potts link=topic=49.msg1927#msg1927
date=1638528720]
I thought DD was REs only website, guess not.
[/quote]
Besides DD, I had the YouTube channel, Soundcloud Channel, SUN
website and Stats Polling site. YouTube channel is still up.
It's free. :)
RE
#Post#: 1931--------------------------------------------------
RE's November NG Bill
By: RE Date: December 3, 2021, 10:48 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Despite the fact Nov was much colder than Oct with mostly
sub-freezing temps and some sub 0F nights, my NG bill was even
LESS than last month, only $20! :o
I even turned up the thermostat a few degrees, so the only
thing I can figure is most of the other people living in this
building turned theirs up more than I did.
While just about everything else in AK is more expensive than
the lower 48, the NG comes CHEAP. This because unlike the Oil,
it's hard to ship out. We don't have a liquification plant and
no pipeline to carry it out of the state.
I'm a little surprized there isn't a Fertilizer plant up here,
at least not one I am aware of. This would seem to be a great
way to make money these days.
RE
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