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#Post#: 704--------------------------------------------------
Energy Errata
By: RE Date: August 7, 2021, 5:01 am
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HTML https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-06/the-era-of-cheap-natural-gas-ends-as-prices-surge-by-1-000
1000% ??? That's a 10X price jump. We heat here with NG. My
bill 2 years ago in winter averaged $50/mo. That would mean
this year it would be $500/mo!!! WTF could afford that ?!?! If
you have a whole McMansion to heat, $200/mo turns into $2000/mo
!!!
Something's gotta give.
RE
#Post#: 706--------------------------------------------------
Re: Energy Errata
By: Nearings fault Date: August 7, 2021, 9:52 am
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[quote author=RE link=topic=49.msg704#msg704 date=1628330471]
HTML https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-06/the-era-of-cheap-natural-gas-ends-as-prices-surge-by-1-000
1000% ??? That's a 10X price jump. We heat here with NG. My
bill 2 years ago in winter averaged $50/mo. That would mean
this year it would be $500/mo!!! WTF could afford that ?!?! If
you have a whole McMansion to heat, $200/mo turns into $2000/mo
!!!
Something's gotta give.
RE
[/quote]insulation, smaller homes and heat pumps... The new
house is right on trend. Bring on high energy costs, good for
the green building world
#Post#: 707--------------------------------------------------
Re: Energy Errata
By: RE Date: August 7, 2021, 11:45 am
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[quote author=Nearings fault link=topic=49.msg706#msg706
date=1628347960]
[quote author=RE link=topic=49.msg704#msg704 date=1628330471]
HTML https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-06/the-era-of-cheap-natural-gas-ends-as-prices-surge-by-1-000
1000% ??? That's a 10X price jump. We heat here with NG. My
bill 2 years ago in winter averaged $50/mo. That would mean
this year it would be $500/mo!!! WTF could afford that ?!?! If
you have a whole McMansion to heat, $200/mo turns into $2000/mo
!!!
Something's gotta give.
RE
[/quote]insulation, smaller homes and heat pumps... The new
house is right on trend. Bring on high energy costs, good for
the green building world
[/quote]
I live in an 800 sq ft unit of a modern well insulated multi
unit dwelling, which is far more efficient than single family
dwellings. fewer exterior walls per capita. I only expected to
pay about $50/mo for heating. I doubt the price will rise 10X,
but it could triple. That is a huge bight out of my budget.
Many low income seniors and the working poor cannot afford that
kind of hit. What do you propose for them?
RE
#Post#: 710--------------------------------------------------
Re: Energy Errata
By: Nearings fault Date: August 7, 2021, 2:08 pm
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I have no good answer for you of course. Times are changing
though. I would expect if prices go up the size of apts would
shrink to confirm to budgets. You know better than most that the
size of apartments has fluctuated with time and current norms
are a product of cheap energy.
#Post#: 713--------------------------------------------------
Re: Energy Errata
By: RE Date: August 7, 2021, 6:15 pm
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[quote author=Nearings fault link=topic=49.msg710#msg710
date=1628363316]
I have no good answer for you of course. Times are changing
though. I would expect if prices go up the size of apts would
shrink to confirm to budgets. You know better than most that the
size of apartments has fluctuated with time and current norms
are a product of cheap energy.
[/quote]
I could live easily in a much smaller space of course. Well set
up, I think I could get as small as 15X20 and have everything I
need including bathroom and kithen facilities. Alternatively, I
probably could share this unit with two other cripples, though
I don't like living with other people. However, such
transitions won't happen overnight, wheras your heating bill
tripling could happen overnight. Like COVID, this is something
which could radically affect the society very rapidly, like this
winter. Also not soluble with masks or vaxes. The only
solution I see is Gubermint subsidy, but how much more can they
really print?
RE
#Post#: 718--------------------------------------------------
Re: Energy Errata
By: Nearings fault Date: August 7, 2021, 9:17 pm
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It seems like goverents can print endless amounts... Until they
cannot. I think the transition could come fast. Probably in odd
ways at first like abandoning parts of apartments to the cold or
doubling up. I lived in a shared house where we had added a
room on the sly by boarding off the dining room to lower rent.
Vancouver rents were crazy even twenty years ago... Weird times.
#Post#: 743--------------------------------------------------
What Happens If We Stop Pumping Oil Tomorrow?
By: RE Date: August 16, 2021, 10:54 pm
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This is no big newz to anyone in the Peak Oil or Collapse
communities,, but it ignores the fact that a gradual transition
doesn't work all that much better. As soon as Growth goes
negative, the economy goes into recession. Better than
instantaneous chaos of course, but the end result after a couple
of decades would be about the same. No avoiding it, just
delaying it some. Good for people within 20 or so years of
dieing from Old Age anyhow who are a growing fraction of the
demographics, so none of them will vote to stop all oil
production. Neither will the Millenials, who once the iPhones
disappear from the shelves will go berzerk.
On that note, I was out shopping with my PCA yesterday at
Walmart, at the electronics section was barely half full. Only
a few models from major manufacturers like Apple and Samsung
were available. Probably a greater selection still available
Online from Amazon though.
Somehow, most of the population seems to ignore this is ongoing,
but once their current iPhone quits and they can't get a
replacement, they'll notice.
RE
HTML https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/What-Happens-If-We-Stop-Pumping-Oil-Tomorrow.html
What Happens If We Stop Pumping Oil Tomorrow?
By Irina Slav - Aug 16, 2021, 12:00 PM CDT
Join Our Community
In a traditionally slow news month such as August, any event of
relative significance gets abundant coverage. Yet the latest
report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was not
just an event of relative significance. It was, based on media
coverage, an event of huge significance. This significance lay
in a stark warning: quit fossil fuels or ruin the planet. The
report basically said that if we don't act immediately, we would
never be able to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius from
pre-industrial times. It also noted that some of the changes
human activity has inflicted on the planet are already
irreversible.
In comments on the report, UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres
said, "This report must sound a death knell for coal and fossil
fuels, before they destroy our planet," adding "Countries should
also end all new fossil fuel exploration and production, and
shift fossil fuel subsidies into renewable energy."
The world must urgently wind down fossil fuel supply in an
orderly and transparent way and halt high-risk high-cost oil and
gas exploration today," said the founder and executive chair of
Carbon Tracker.
These reactions—especially the UN's Guterres' call to end all
oil and gas exploration—sound quite familiar. The reason is that
they echo a call by the International Energy Agency for an end
to all new oil and gas exploration before the end of 2021. The
IEA made the call in its Net-Zero Roadmap, which saw demand for
oil and gas decline fast because of the availability of
alternative energy sources.
Soon after the report was released, however, the same
International Energy Agency that called for the end of all oil
and gas exploration made another call, this time to OPEC. The
agency asked the cartel to start pumping more oil as demand for
fuels was rebounding faster than expected, pushing prices
higher.
U.S. President Joe Biden, who has set a goal to make the U.S.
economy net-zero by 2050 and slash emissions by 50 percent by
2030, this week also called on OPEC to boost production. The
reason: prices at the pump were too high for American drivers.
The messages coming from IEA and the White House might seem
confusing, at best, and hypocritical, at worst. But let's say it
was possible for every oil company in the world to decide at the
same time to stop the pumps. What would happen then?
The short answer is, of course, chaos. The longer answer covers
pretty much every part of any and every economy on the planet
and virtually every industry. It will be a while before the full
effects begin to be felt because there are stockpiles of oil,
gas, and petrochemicals, but even before these begin to dwindle,
prices will skyrocket because of the impending supply outage.
And this means prices of everything.
“If there was no oil, iPhones, technology, computers, plastics,
all manufactured products, food and medicines would not be able
to be produced," says Jay R. Young, CEO of King Operating
Corporation, an oil and gas investment firm. "So the people in
the United States living the Amish lifestyle would be impacted
the least.
"We as a society have lost the ability to survive without the
food chain and delivery of products. Coal would continue to
increase and the CO2 and pollution would increase at a
dramatically increasing rate. Billions would die, societies
would fail, and the migration to a clean future would be over,"
Young says.
Related: Visualizing The Gradual Death Of EU Coal Production
It would be difficult to argue with such a vision, regardless of
whether it comes from the oil industry or not. Payal Rastogi,
founder principal at CarbonFixers, an Indian company working
with businesses to make them more environmentally sustainable,
shares Young's opinion.
"If we stop consumption and drilling for oil and gas; as of
today all the global products and life will come to stand
still," she says.
Before this standstill, however, there is bound to be a lot of
action, none of its friendly or peaceful. Right now, a price
rise of about $1 per gallon of gasoline is prompting the
President, who has made it clear he is not a supporter of the
oil industry or gasoline, to call on the world's oil-producing
cartel to increase oil production as unhappy drivers make for
unhappy voters. Now imagine what would happen if the price per
gallon of gasoline rose by not $1 but $5 in a matter of days.
You don't even need to imagine it: we've seen what happens when
fuel shortages hit in Venezuela, for example.
The U.S. has only a month's worth of oil supply, says Dr. Jerry
Bailey, chief executive of Utah-based oil company Petroteq
Energy Corp. if production stops, the country would be plunged
into an immediate depression because a vast amount of U.S.
industries depend on the commodity.
Since this is true of all economies and not just the United
States, multiplying the effect expected for it by the number of
countries in the world should provide the full picture, which
will not be pretty.
One might perhaps argue that these are the opinions of people
from the oil industry but it would be difficult to counter these
opinions in any rational way. The truth is that modern
civilization is dependent on hydrocarbons. A transition away
from this dependence cannot happen overnight and it cannot
happen forcibly because of the fallout: quitting cold turkey is
the hardest way to kick a bad habit and not always successful.
Maybe we have a better chance of weaning ourselves off oil and
gas if we approach the transition in a calmer, less alarmist
manner.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
#Post#: 744--------------------------------------------------
Re: Energy Errata
By: K-Dog Date: August 17, 2021, 1:42 am
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This article makes no sense to me. It speaks to people who
demand we stop all fossil fuel use at once. A confused response
to confused people who don't have their headphones plugged into
reality.
Too many people for any combination of renewable energies, and
oil is heroin. Starvation will result when oil fails. Be it
sooner or later it will happen. No ways will be changed. Oil
pumps will run dry. When that happens it is Mad Max time as
there will be no food.
#Post#: 745--------------------------------------------------
Re: Energy Errata
By: Phil Potts Date: August 17, 2021, 5:32 am
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Ordinarily it would be a silly question. However we have seen
the unthinkable already in suddenly stopping air travel
consumption of oil and most commuters suddenly stopping. Half
the people here are not allowed to travel more than 5km from
home and only for a few express purposes, If you get caught
further than 5km from home or with a passenger whose ID has a
different address, just say you're taking them to get vaxinated
and they let u go.
In any case, renewables can't supply enough power for
cryptocurrency mining, or the bandwidth to run YouTube. So yes
it would be disastrous if the only solid sources of income today
stopped because we stop pumping oil. I would have to run a
pyramid scheme on all of you.
#Post#: 746--------------------------------------------------
Re: Energy Errata
By: RE Date: August 17, 2021, 9:44 am
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Irina Slav is a regular reporter for OilPrice.com and knows
perfectly well the problems with Renewables for coming anywhere
CLOSE to providing the necessary energy to power industrial
civilization and feed 7.6B people on planet Earth. But OP is a
mainstream organization. not a Peak Oil or Doomer website. They
provide the HOPIUM that if we just extend and pretend long
enough, we can avoid the inevitable. Hopium sells; Doomerism
does not. Like most people also, she can't really come to grips
with the idea of Billions dying and a Mad Max world.
One does have to wonder when the mass starvation actually begins
how the MSM will report it and who will get the blame? What
kind of response will there be from the federal goobermint be
and how long will it last before it collapses? And of course
the CRUCIAL and still unanswerable question: HOW LONG do we
have left before the GREAT DIEOFF of Homo Saps begins?
RE
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