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#Post#: 353--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Nearings fault Date: May 19, 2021, 8:07 pm
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That is the classic fast collapse versus slow collapse debate
though. Do you need to train up enough animal traction that
fast? That point of view assumes you go from the status quo to
doing the same thing with horses. Right now more then half the
field crops we grow goes to feeding livestock in centralized
operations. As collapse shows up I would expect that world to
disappear. That is the low hanging fruit of agricultural waste.
I expect the GPS controlled combine to disappear but tractors? I
could see nationalized fuel for agriculture but not a return of
draft animals. Not at first. That gearing down would buy you
time. Time to turn all the wooded over farms back to pasture and
hay fields. Time to de centralise livestock to get the nutrients
back into a rotation and shrink the fossil fuel costs. Time to
re localize food production. Then maybe retire the tractors
maybe but lots of wasted energy to trim first.
#Post#: 354--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: RE Date: May 19, 2021, 8:44 pm
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[quote author=Nearings fault link=topic=14.msg353#msg353
date=1621472835]
That is the classic fast collapse versus slow collapse debate
though. Do you need to train up enough animal traction that
fast? That point of view assumes you go from the status quo to
doing the same thing with horses. Right now more then half the
field crops we grow goes to feeding livestock in centralized
operations. As collapse shows up I would expect that world to
disappear. That is the low hanging fruit of agricultural waste.
I expect the GPS controlled combine to disappear but tractors? I
could see nationalized fuel for agriculture but not a return of
draft animals. Not at first. That gearing down would buy you
time. Time to turn all the wooded over farms back to pasture and
hay fields. Time to de centralise livestock to get the nutrients
back into a rotation and shrink the fossil fuel costs. Time to
re localize food production. Then maybe retire the tractors
maybe but lots of wasted energy to trim first.
[/quote]
I was only responding to the idea of "Turning Amish", not to
stepping down the energy ladder through conservation and fuel
substitutes like wood gas or renewable electrics or adding more
nuke puke generating capacity. All of those can work to extend
out the perion of techno-farming to a century or even more,
especially with an ongoing population shrinkage through the time
period. This works out to a somewhat more "slow catabolic
collapse" or "long emergency" style end game, although in
geologic or evwen historical terms it is still pretty quick.
Even with this though you have the fact that it won't be uniform
geographically or politically because of the way the population
is currently distributed with the vast preponderance of global
population living in urban and suburban locales. The
inequality in resource distribution, power and money means there
will follow significant dieoff through warfare, which will
negatively make up for any relief on population pressure you
might get from conservation and fuel substitution. You're
likely to see similar dieoff numbers and outcomes in either
scenario. Basically, the system is FUBAR no matter how you cut
it.
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWWwM2wwMww
RE
#Post#: 355--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Phil Potts Date: May 19, 2021, 10:05 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
There will be no such managed deconstruction of high tech
digitised society unless there is first a lot of
decentralization. States having autonomy from federal govts and
then localities having even more and becoming truly democratic.
The Orwellian state will starve you to pay for its own apparatus
of control as long as possible. When that's gone there's a power
vacuum and only communities that already have trust among its
members as well as ability to feed itself can attempt new old
ways. That rules out all metropolitan population to begin with.
It seems clear there are moves toward a managed decline in
population over time with an overall reduction of per capita
consumption for the vast majority. As long as people are eating
they will comply, regardless of what they are fed such as insect
protein or lab grown meat. Middle classes are systematically
cheated out of assetts by such things as bans on evictions and
big corporations gain greater monopoly. Big fish being unable to
help themselves fucking everyone else over might not be able to
share the spoils. Also, as Gail states, conflict is a given and
not just from the early 20th C she cited. It's been a given
across the entirety of human history. I don't believe that can
be a controlled burn.
#Post#: 356--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: May 19, 2021, 10:23 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
We might be in for a slow collapse, but it wont be smooth...
I see sharp drops from time to time in standard of living when
something else becomes unobtainable.
More saw tooth than gentle curve down to stone age..
We live in such an interconnected world, that any disruption
seems magnified. Think shortage of chips right not and auto
production. Just in time= no safety stocks when SNAFU's occur.
An example: A small interruption to the power grid for a month
or 2 will result in chaos beyond belief in cities. No food,
sanitation, lighting, petrol (bowsers wont work). It can be
caused by something as simple as a computer virus, a storm or a
bit of sun spot activity, or be caused by the bankruptcy of a
power company or local government. Cities would burn as looting
takes place. Populations would flee or be killed in the mayhem.
Repeat for shortages of fuel, staple foods, common medicines and
basic antibiotics, infrastructure failures, water supply, GPS of
phone systems,
The next pandemic, but this time more deadly, or if some
fuckknuckle actually starts a hot war to get reelected. Worked
well for Thatcher in 83, and Bibi looks like he is using the
same play book.
JOW
#Post#: 360--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Digwe Must Date: May 20, 2021, 9:13 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Wow. Good points made by all of you. I look forward to
reading your further thoughts on this topic.
The pace of collapse is critical to how "civilized" we remain on
the way down. RE is correct that if we are to calculate the
human/animal ratio necessary for a full return to animal and
human power we need to go pre-railroad and 1850 is about right.
I believe it is also true that we are hard-wired for conflict.
The more rapid and complete the collapse the more likely the
all-against-all scenario. War will tend to f*ckup all the stuff
laying around that can be repurposed.
Railroad tracks will still be in place and, of course, rivers
and lakes will still be there for transport. In Montana the
steamboats ran all the way up the Missouri River to Fort Benton
until they were replaced by the railroads in the 1860s.
Although warfare is inevitable, the rapidly lowering sperm
counts and declining birth rates in the developed world may
obviate the need for conflict to adjust the population to a
viable level. The last I read the sperm count (now down 60%) is
on an inexorable march to zero - expected by 2045.
#Post#: 362--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: RE Date: May 20, 2021, 9:54 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Digwe Must link=topic=14.msg360#msg360
date=1621520012]
Although warfare is inevitable, the rapidly lowering sperm
counts and declining birth rates in the developed world may
obviate the need for conflict to adjust the population to a
viable level. The last I read the sperm count (now down 60%) is
on an inexorable march to zero - expected by 2045.
[/quote]
Children of Men time! :o
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VT2apoX90o&t=48s
That sort of reduction is asymptotic and I doubt it ever goes
completely to zero. One also has to suspect once the population
crashes and the industrial poisons start washing out of the
environment, fertility will go back on the increase. This is a
lot like the mice subjected to crowding conditions which has
been heavily researched. Then you also have techno-solutions
like cloning and selection for fertile males by governments. If
you happen to be the one fertile guy with 99% of the other guys
sterile, you would be in very high demand and put out to stud.
;D How many women can you service a month? Figure 3/day for
about 90 different ones. :o This would quickly start to seem
like a lot of work, lol. The fillies better all resemble
Genevieve Bujold to keep me going another round. ;D
[img]
HTML https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT4aLhJUQFiQmVO601tUOy9SWzMhe5lwwXbmQ&usqp=CAU[/img]
RE
#Post#: 365--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: K-Dog Date: May 20, 2021, 12:35 pm
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Slow collapse debate?
We can't have a slow collapse very long. Without coming
together to get through this thing, resource constraints will
lead to death and conflict. I say there is no way around it
under any business as usual scenario which is necessary in a
slow collapse. Look at how comfortable America is right now
with Israeli war crimes. The will to survive as a species is
simply not there. People only think of themselves.
“Growth is slow, while the road to ruin is fast.” Seneca.
The only reason there is a slow 'debate' is because John Greer
the former archdruid (before he decided to hide behind the
history of magic or some such) made it up just to be different.
JMG's motivation was literary and not having to do with how the
world really works. Unfortunately because he has a following
John was taken seriously.
[img]
HTML https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse1.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIP.qVdvQSFdWQDCioZmCb9WjgHaEA%26pid%3DApi&f=1[/img]
Things may start going in the direction of a slow collapse but
that kind of balancing act can't be maintained. It would be
like trying to make a pencil stand on its point. Collapse is
characterized by shortage. It will not take long before a
shortage becomes critical and mayhem results.
#Post#: 366--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: RE Date: May 20, 2021, 1:46 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=K-Dog link=topic=14.msg365#msg365
date=1621532132]a.
The only reason there is a slow 'debate' is because John Greer
the former archdruid (before he decided to hide behind the
history of magic or some such) made it up just to be different.
JMG's motivation was literary and not having to do with how the
world really works. Unfortunately because he has a following
John was taken seriously.
[/quote]
In fairness to Mr.Wizard, he's not the only famous Collapse
Pundit to promote this idea, Kunstler says basically the same
thing with his "Long Emergency". As you say. once something
critical goes MIA, the emergency won't last all that long.
Survivors will be neck deep in corpses in no time. David
Korowicz had it most accurately with his papers on supply chain
cross contagion and irreversibility of systems.
The main question remains just when that critical Domino will
fall, and where. After that,the whole of industrial
civilization is likely to tumble down about at the same rate as
a domino setup does.
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DQQN_79QrDY
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLRjiiAawGg
RE
#Post#: 368--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Digwe Must Date: May 20, 2021, 6:41 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
This is an important discussion. I believe this is significant
because it can help us focus on personal strategies. Also, at
least for me, it helps me avoid wishful thinking. The risks and
likelihood of worsening collapse are here now. Clear risk
assessment is critically important now and for the foreseeable
future. Our work here is to leave something that will hopefully
help those who follow navigate the times ahead. If we are to
have any success at all we need to clearly identify the greatest
threats. And keep working.
"The wheel is turning
and you can't slow down
You can't let go
and you can't hold on
You can't go back
and you can't stand still
If the thunder don't get you
then the lightning will
Won't you try just a little bit harder
Couldn't you try just a little bit more?
Won't you try just a little bit harder?
Couldn't you try just a little bit more?"
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzGWYShgmfk
RE is certainly correct when he states that collapse will not be
spread evenly about the landscape. It won't be democratic or
fair. Those who profit most from creating the conditions for
collapse may just get off to their private islands and have
wonderful lives.
Below are some particularly good points you all made.
Unfortunately, I think a slow descent to a more sustainable
future is the least likely outcome. So much can go wrong with
that scenario. As others point out once a key cog goes missing -
there goes the whole shootin' match.
I will say to KDog that I'm not really comfortable ascribing
motives to JMG. I often disagree with him - but respect his
mind and viewpoint. I don't think he needs a novel theory of
collapse to be considered different. That takes care of itself.
I have his book "The Long Descent" from 2008. It's held up
fairly well.
RE At my age I found your calculation of how many women per
day a fertile man would be expected to "visit" to be a
terrifying prospect. Not exactly a fate worse than death - but
death would be the probable result. Thankfully an issue I won't
need to...probe...any further.
[quote author=RE link=topic=14.msg354#msg354 date=1621475079]
[quote author=Nearings fault link=topic=14.msg353#msg353
date=1621472835]
That is the classic fast collapse versus slow collapse debate
though. Do you need to train up enough animal traction that
fast? That point of view assumes you go from the status quo to
doing the same thing with horses... Time to re localize food
production. Then maybe retire the tractors maybe but lots of
wasted energy to trim first.
[/quote]
Even with this though you have the fact that it won't be
uniform geographically or politically because of the way the
population is currently distributed with the vast preponderance
of global population living in urban and suburban locales. The
inequality in resource distribution, power and money means there
will follow significant dieoff through warfare, which will
negatively make up for any relief on population pressure you
might get from conservation and fuel substitution. You're
likely to see similar dieoff numbers and outcomes in either
scenario. Basically, the system is FUBAR no matter how you cut
it.
[quote author=Phil Potts link=topic=14.msg355#msg355
date=1621479920]
... The Orwellian state will starve you to pay for its own
apparatus of control as long as possible. When that's gone
there's a power vacuum and only communities that already have
trust among its members as well as ability to feed itself can
attempt new old ways.
. Also, as Gail states, conflict is a given and not just from
the early 20th C she cited. It's been a given across the
entirety of human history. I don't believe that can be a
controlled burn.
[/quote][quote author=Phil Potts link=topic=14.msg355#msg355
date=1621479920]
There will be no such managed deconstruction of high tech
digitised society unless there is first a lot of
decentralization. States having autonomy from federal govts and
then localities having even more and becoming truly democratic.
The Orwellian state will starve you to pay for its own apparatus
of control as long as possible. When that's gone there's a power
vacuum and only communities that already have trust among its
members as well as ability to feed itself can attempt new old
ways. That rules out all metropolitan population to begin with.
It seems clear there are moves toward a managed decline in
population over time with an overall reduction of per capita
consumption for the vast majority. As long as people are eating
they will comply, regardless of what they are fed such as insect
protein or lab grown meat. Middle classes are systematically
cheated out of assetts by such things as bans on evictions and
big corporations gain greater monopoly. Big fish being unable to
help themselves **** everyone else over might not be able to
share the spoils. Also, as Gail states, conflict is a given and
not just from the early 20th C she cited. It's been a given
across the entirety of human history. I don't believe that can
be a controlled burn.
[/quote]
RE
[/quote][quote author=John of Wallan link=topic=14.msg356#msg356
date=1621481026]
We might be in for a slow collapse, but it wont be smooth...
I see sharp drops from time to time in standard of living when
something else becomes unobtainable.
More saw tooth than gentle curve down to stone age..
We live in such an interconnected world, that any disruption
seems magnified. Think shortage of chips right not and auto
production. Just in time= no safety stocks when SNAFU's occur."
[quote author=K-Dog link=topic=14.msg365#msg365 date=1621532132]
Slow collapse debate?
We can't have a slow collapse very long. Without coming
together to get through this thing, resource constraints will
lead to death and conflict. I say there is no way around it
under any business as usual scenario which is necessary in a
slow collapse.
“Growth is slow, while the road to ruin is fast.” Seneca.
The only reason there is a slow 'debate' is because John Greer
the former archdruid (before he decided to hide behind the
history of magic or some such) made it up just to be different.
JMG's motivation was literary and not having to do with how the
world really works. Unfortunately because he has a following
John was taken seriously.
Things may start going in the direction of a slow collapse but
that kind of balancing act can't be maintained. It would be
like trying to make a pencil stand on its point. Collapse is
characterized by shortage. It will not take long before a
shortage becomes critical and mayhem results.
[/quote]
#Post#: 370--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Phil Potts Date: May 20, 2021, 8:35 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
I was thinking the same thing about kunstler being in that camp.
I always thought his 'world made by hand' in upstate NY was a
pipe dream.
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