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#Post#: 328--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Digwe Must Date: May 17, 2021, 2:31 pm
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HTML https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/
Interesting article on expected climate refugees in North
America.....
JOW
KDog is right. Fascinating. Thanks for posting.
Agriculture can't just move north further than where it is now.
You run into muskeg and boreal forest.
#Post#: 330--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: K-Dog Date: May 17, 2021, 7:55 pm
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[quote author=Digwe Must link=topic=14.msg328#msg328
date=1621279882]
You run into muskeg and boreal forest.
[/quote]
Yes, summer can get long and warm enough to grow something, but
rock and bog will not grow crops.
#Post#: 332--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: K-Dog Date: May 17, 2021, 8:44 pm
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[spoiler][quote author=BuddyJ link=topic=14.msg329#msg329
date=1621284408]
[quote author=John of Wallan]
Watch this:
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOMWzjrRiBg
Best short and entertaining documentary I have seen which sums
it all up nicely.
JOW
[/quote]
Sums it up nicely indeed. Loved the narrators voice. The video
appears to have been produced in 2012 or so, by a known advocacy
group. When confronted with a convincing argument, it is
sometimes useful to do some basic fact checking of the claims
and assertions made. Did you check out any of the interesting
assertions made in the video? Not the conclusion itself mind
you, conclusions can always have some interpretation of the data
involved, but the building blocks upon which they rested the
entire argument.
[/quote][/spoiler]
[quote]Sums it up nicely indeed. Loved the narrators
voice.[/quote]
The bit about topsoil loss is 25 minutes in. It is a good
primer on depletion resource issues. Which I hope the climate
change community tunes into soon.
HTML https://chasingthesquirrel.com/public/pics/philosoraptor2.png
What is taking them so long?
#Post#: 333--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: May 17, 2021, 9:18 pm
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I am glad when the debate get going. Brings a lot of new
perspectives to the table.
Buddy, here is how I see it:
1. EROEI can be temporarily off set by increasing debt to some
degree, but only for a short time, and only if we use one
available energy source to produce another. Think ethanol from
corn, or hydrogen using coal fired electricity..
2. Tar sands create a very low EROEI, but I am told is still
profitable... It does not however take into account ecological
costs. Poison rivers, scarred landscape. Bit like nuclear power;
if remediation/ de-commissioning costs are added to the equation
they don't make money.
3. We hit peak conventional oil in 2008. We could not increase
output even when prices spiked to $180 a litre of petrol here in
Shitsville. Since then unconventional oil such as fracking came
on stream, only because interest rates were at near zero
allowing companies to borrow money and invest in previously
non-profitable projects.
4. Low EROEI will not allow us to maintain our current high
standard of living which is possible due to excess energy. See
life before oil: Little house on the prairie, but less smiling
and more hard work....
JOW
#Post#: 335--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: May 18, 2021, 12:24 am
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EROEI decreases as the easy oil is exploited first. It
originally was very high in the US and allowed the rapid
expansion until thing slowed and stagnated in the 70's. Not a
coincidence US debt took off around the same time to try and
maintain standard of living.. Deep water oil, low grade reserves
and unconventional oil all have lower EROEI than the good old
days of Spindle top. The Saudis are running out of cheap oil
too, as wells require more and more water pumped down to pump
oil up. This requires more energy. In very simplistic terms you
can substitute energy for dollars. Lower EROEI = More expensive.
Gets to a point when cost in more than benefit. When EROEI is
high we can all live like kings on cheap goods produced by
excess cheap energy. When EROEI is low there is no excess.
Fracking and tar sands may be old technology, but it was not
economical at $5 a barrel oil out of OPEC. It took expensive oil
for it to make economic sense. Some say it never did, depending
on your accounting... Electric car technology has been around
120 years too. They seem to be making sense to some people now
more than previously it seems.
I think you will find conventional oil peaked in 2008 +/- a few
years. 2018 oil "Miracle" was from fracking. It will be short
lived due to high cost of production and high depletion rate of
wells. They have the Red queen syndrome: Have to drill more and
more wells to keep up wit current demand.
Really in the scheme of things +/- 10 years is a rounding error
and +/-100 years is still a blip in the human timeline, so your
definition of short term may differ to mine.
JOW.
#Post#: 336--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Digwe Must Date: May 18, 2021, 12:47 pm
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"Gail T has been much closer to the real Peak Oil story than
many other folks in that camp.
You mean, like those who predicted it even before she did in
2008? That was primarily Deffeyes and Campbell, but the most
interesting fact about the many other folks? The only claim of
peak oil circa 1990-2008 (when Gail did hers) that hasn't been
discredited by reality? The EIA and their call for 2037."
Sorry I wasn't more clear. Gail separated herself from the peak
Oil crowd a few years ago by asserting that it was not scarcity
and high prices that would crash oil production, but lower
prices (below production cost) that would result from the
consumer's inability to pay for it. (Remember no growth in US
wages for over 40 years). Demand falls and takes the price below
the level necessary to spur production. Being old and slow, it
struck me as counterintuitive at first, but after reading her
explanations a few times I got it. So far, her take on things
seems closer to the actual path we are on. Time will tell.
That is why and where (at least in the US) Ponzi finance and
government subsidies enter the equation. That is why there is
much consolidation and bankruptcy in the drillers, even in the
Bakken and Eagle Ford.
The Trump administration attempted a public land giveaway to big
oil and in several instances was successful. His administration
put oil and gas and mining lobbyists in charge of federal land
agencies. The Biden administration has put a moratorium on new
leasing but there are many, many leases still active. There are
26 million acres under lease, only half of which have been
developed.
HTML https://www.hcn.org/issues/53.3/north-public-lands-public-land-is-no-longer-on-sale-to-oil-and-gas-companies
As a disclaimer I should be out front and say that we have been
actively fighting oil and gas exploitation on public land for
over 25 years. I say "we" but it is my wife who is the person
responsible for saving a large chunk of sacred (to Native
Americans)and environmentally priceless landscape. All I did
was tell them they were going to have to run over me with the
first bulldozer. If big oil had been allowed to pillage the
Rocky Mountain Front the return to the US taxpayer for the sale
of drilling rights would have been about $10 per acre. It ain't
just physics.
Must go move irrigation. It is so dry - so early.
#Post#: 339--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Phil Potts Date: May 18, 2021, 6:18 pm
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[quote author=BuddyJ link=topic=14.msg331#msg331
date=1621299934]
A wise Air Force academy physics professor once told me, "Son,
there are only 2 things in this world that matter. Physics, and
the will of man." He ventured this comment during a debate on
the value of learning economics. The point being, the social
science describing the way humans behave is just as important to
how and what we are as the fundamental laws of the universe.
All depends on your definition of collapse. Your neighbor loses
his job? Recession. You lose yours? Collapse. Me, I pick an easy
metric. For example, has the number of deaths in a year exceeded
the number of births? Nope. But if that condition is met, you
can bet the world we live in might look somewhat like collapse.
That metric and us all discussing our favorite recipes for long
pork over a campfire? Now we might be getting close!
[/quote]
I'm wondering what the will of man is meant to inform us in this
instance. Is it faith that man will invent new energy sources or
simply survive as in previous civilization collapse. On every
continent there are ruins of high civilization that was lost and
replaced with simple subsistence of survivors. China being the
exception of being the only continuous civilization after 5000
yrs and Europe as continuos after 500 or1000 yrs. You can decide
whether you want to take it as beginning with the Renaissance or
beginning with the ability to build castles several centuries
after the Romans left, taking with them the ability to make
cement. It is incorrect to claim ancient Greece and Rome for
western civilization as they were extensions of Mediterranean
models.
across the developed world, we have already passed the falling
birth rates associated with previous civilizations that never
recovered, believed to be about 1.7 children per woman. If you
excluded recent immigrants that do the heavy lifting in that
regard and looked only at natives in Europe, second generation
immigrants in the rest of the anglosphere, plus Sth Korea and
Japan, birth rate would be below 1.5.
Yes, when EVERYONE has lost their jobs it probably can't be
mistaken as anything but collapse. Declining standard of living
overall now incorprates a lot more underemployment than just
unemployment. Casual contracts, gig economy and wages lagging
far behind inflation, resulted in most people living paycheck to
paycheck and in debt.
#Post#: 344--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: RE Date: May 19, 2021, 11:52 am
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[quote author=BuddyJ link=topic=14.msg334#msg334
date=1621306374]
I get collapse equating to living like the Amish.
[/quote]
I doubt Amish level living will be maintained all that long.
Depends too much on mining, metallurgy and supply lines for farm
implements. Also doubtful all the horses necessary can be bred
up fast enough. Stone Age technology is the more likely outcome
of collapse.
RE
#Post#: 345--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Digwe Must Date: May 19, 2021, 4:50 pm
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Good to hear from you, RE. Hope things are improving for you.
You are correct about the ability to breed the necessary number
of equines in short order to move agriculture to animal power.
As I noted earlier, there were about 108 million people in the
US in 1920. There were about 25 million equines. (some sources
say that number applies to horses, some to mules) You can train
up oxen quicker than equines but they are not as versatile.
There are about 9 million domestic equines in the US now, and
about 10 million dairy cattle. The gestation period for a horse
is 11-12 months.
As a brief side note I've been around mules just a little. Not
in agricultural settings but in the backcountry. They are sure
footed, strong as hell and smart. Someday I may tell you the
story of Percy the white mule and Pablo his horse buddy.
As collapse accelerates there will be a lot of salvage
available, so I expect clever people will cushion things a bit
on the way down. Don't know that we will reach stone age, but
that may be wishful thinking on my part.
As I recall, but don't have the time at this moment to look up,
Donella Meadows and the Limits To Growth publications from the
Club of Rome had a chart of how things would play out on a macro
scale. They've generally been pretty close. I don't think they
had the human population peak and retreat until after food and
other resources started to decline. We may be at the declining
food availability stage now. This summer will tell.
Every day I am more aware of the ongoing ecological collapse.
Missing insects, disappearing birds, dying trees, vanishing
wetlands, declining fish stocks, on and f*cking on. I claim no
expertise, but I know quite a few people who have spent their
professional lives as wildlife biologists, foresters soil
scientists, fisheries biologists, hydrologists etc. I do not
know one who thinks we aren't in severe crisis. There is not
debate among these folks. The climate and fossil fuel crises are
just part of the equation. It ain't just physics and will. It
ain't just a decline that might be somewhat difficult but can be
solved with the proper engineering.
Meanwhile, the ravens are after turkey eggs and they have their
eye on the goslings. Might have to shoot one. We cut lilacs for
wine today and the fruit trees have massive blooms. I'm
experimenting with fermented Korean style foliar sprays this
season.
We have a buff hen who set eggs this year. After 25 days it
became obvious that either the eggs weren't fertile or they'd
gotten cold before she set them. As it turned out the feed
store was giving away 6 chicks free with a purchase of chick
feed. My wife got the chicks and placed them under the hen.
She instantly accepted them and is now the proud mama. Pretty
cute. More chicks arrive in the mail tomorrow. I'm trying some
Bielefelders this year for the size.
We proceed on. "Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a
banana" - Groucho
#Post#: 351--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: RE Date: May 19, 2021, 7:11 pm
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[quote author=Digwe Must link=topic=14.msg345#msg345
date=1621461051]
Good to hear from you, RE. Hope things are improving for you.
You are correct about the ability to breed the necessary number
of equines in short order to move agriculture to animal power.
As I noted earlier, there were about 108 million people in the
US in 1920. There were about 25 million equines. (some sources
say that number applies to horses, some to mules) You can train
up oxen quicker than equines but they are not as versatile.
There are about 9 million domestic equines in the US now, and
about 10 million dairy cattle. The gestation period for a horse
is 11-12 months.
[/quote]
In 1920 Tractors were already replacing horses for planting and
harvesting. To get a reasonably accurate population ratio
humans/draft animals for going the Full Amish with Ag you would
probably need to go back to 1850 or so. Given current
population numbers you would need conservatively 50-100X as many
drafte animals as you did back then, and then you would need to
be able to grow all the foodin reasonable proximity to where
they worked to feed them as well. Needless to say, with deple
ted topsoil, drought conditions in many places and lack of FF
based fertilizers this would be mathematically impossible to do.
To even have a ghost of a chance at going the Full Amish you
would first need a Human Population Dieoff around 2 orders of
magnitude, or 99%. A dieoff of that magnitude over the short
term (say one generation or around 25 years) would so destroy
social cohesion you wouldn't be able to get in place the animal
breeding program and infrastructure necessary to accomplish this
changeover. So you would see another 1-2 order of magnitude
human population decrease down to 99.9 or 99.99% Dead People.
At that point the Animal Power is no longer necessary and your
global human popuation is at Paleolithic levels and you could
survive as H-Gs.
This is a Systems Irreversibility problem: While it was
possible to go from Horses to Tractors in one generation, you
can't go the other way from Tractors back to Horses in the same
time span. You're going to have a significant period of
Undershoot before you might get back up to Amish technology
levels and population numbers.
RE
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