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#Post#: 295--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: May 12, 2021, 6:31 pm
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Here are some numbers to interrogate:
They are definately alarmist. They alarm me. Would be relly good
if they are wrong.
We are experiencing heat waves and continental size wildfires in
summer, followed by record rainfall events in winter down here
in Oz. All the information I am reading show these events are
far outside normal distributions; ie 5 or 6 sigma events.
I am planning for the worst, (Alarmist predictions), and hoping
for something better... Reality on the ground is already
alarming enough.
You can argue that the person supplying the information is a
monster all you like. You may even be correct. Character
assassination does not automatically mean they are factually
incorrect. I see it so much in our society; want to discredit
some ones ideas, you first assassinate their character. Dirty
politics.
2 conclusions I have come to:
1. Ice free arctic spells huge problems for the whole planet,
not just humans and our modern Western way of life. We are going
to experience it very soon by all accounts.
2. Governments and a great deal of society have their head in
the sand, and will deny there is a problem, let alone the need
to change until the end.
JOW
Link:
HTML http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
THURSDAY, MARCH 18, 2021
Overshoot or Omnicide?
Questions and Answers with Sam Carana
Above image shows a non-linear blue trend based on 1880-2020
NASA Land+Ocean data that are adjusted 0.78°C to reflect a
pre-industrial base, to more fully reflect strong polar warming,
and to reflect surface air temperatures over oceans. This blue
trend highlights that the 1.5°C threshold was crossed in 2012
(inset), while the 2°C threshold looks set to be crossed next
year and a 3°C rise could be reached at the end of 2026.
Overshoot?
The blue trend in the image at the top shows the temperature
rise crossing 1.5°C in 2012. Could this have been a temporary
overshoot? Could the trend be wrong and could temperatures come
down in future, instead of continuing to rise, and could
temperatures fall to such extent that this will bring the
average temperature rise back to below 1.5°C?
To answer this question, let's apply the method followed by the
IPCC and estimate the average temperature rise over a 30-year
period that is centered around the start of 2012, i.e. from 1997
to the end of 2026. The IPPC used a 30-year period in its
Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 ºC, while assuming that,
for future years, the current multi-decadal warming trend would
continue (see image below).
As said, the image at the top shows the temperature rise
crossing 1.5°C in 2012. For the average temperature over the
30-year period 1997-2026 to be below 1.5°C, temperatures would
have to fall over the next few years. Even if the temperature
for 2021 fell to a level as low as it was in 2018 and remained
at that same lower level until end 2026, the 1997-2026 average
would still be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial.
Furthermore, for temperatures to fall over the next few years,
there would need to be a fall in concentrations of greenhouse
gases over the next few years, among other things. Instead,
greenhouse gas levels appear to be rising steadily, if not at
accelerating pace.
What did the IPCC envisage? As the image below shows, the IPCC
in AR5 did envisage carbon dioxide under RCP 2.6 to be 421 ppm
in 2100, while the combined CO₂e for carbon dioxide,
methane and nitrous oxide would be 475 ppm in 2100.
The image below, based on a study by Detlef van Vuuren et al.
(2011), pictures pathways for concentrations of carbon dioxide,
methane and nitrous oxide, for each of four Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCPs).
Above image shows that, for RCP 2.6 to apply in the above study,
there is little or no room for a rise in these greenhouse gases.
In fact, the study shows that methane levels would have to be
falling dramatically. At the moment, however, methane
concentrations show no signs of falling and instead appear to be
following if not exceeding RCP 8.5, as discussed in a recent
post and as also illustrated by the images below.
Greenhouse gas levels are rising
As the image below shows, the carbon dioxide (CO₂) level
recorded at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, was 421.36 parts per million
(ppm) on April 8, 2021.
The N20 satellite recorded a methane peak of 2862 ppb on the
afterrnoon of March 29, 2021, at 487.2 mb, as the image below
shows.
A similarly high methane peak was recorded by the MetOp-1
satellite at 469 mb on the morning of April 4, 2021.
Below are the highest daily mean methane levels recorded by the
MetOp-1 satellite at selected altitudes on March 10 or 12, for
the years 2013-2021, showing that methane levels are rising,
especially at the higher altitude associated with 293 mb.
Similarly, nitrous oxide levels show no signs of falling, as
illustrated by the image below.
Methane grew 15.85 ppb in 2020, how fast could CO₂e rise?
Rising greenhouse gas levels and associated feedbacks threaten
to cause temperatures to keep rising, in a runaway scenario that
cannot be reverted even if emissions by people were cut to zero.
Peaks in greenhouse gas levels could suffice to trigger the
clouds feedback, which occurs when a CO₂e threshold of
around 1,200 ppm is crossed, and the stratocumulus decks
abruptly become unstable and break up into scattered cumulus
clouds.
Once the clouds tipping point is crossed, it will be impossible
to undo its impact, in line with the nature of a tipping point.
In theory, CO₂ levels could come down after the
stratocumulus breakup, but the stratocumulus decks would only
reform once the CO₂ levels drop below 300 ppm.
A recent post repeated the warning that by 2026, there could be
an 18°C rise when including the clouds feedback, while humans
will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise and most life on Earth
will disappear with a 5°C rise. In conclusion, once the clouds
feedback gets triggered, it cannot be reverted by people,
because by the time the clouds feedback starts kicking in,
people would already have disappeared, so there won't be any
people around to keep trying to revert it.
[ click on images to enlarge ]
Methane levels are rising rapidly. The image to the right shows
a trend that is based on NOAA 2006-2020 annual gobal mean
methane data and that points at a mean of 3893 ppb getting
crossed by the end of 2026.
Why is that value of 3893 ppb important? On April 8, 2021,
carbon dioxide reached a peak of 421.36 ppm, i.e. 778.64 ppm
away from the clouds tipping point at 1200 ppm, and 778.64 ppm
CO₂e translates into 3893 ppb of methane at a 1-year GWP
of 200.
In other words, a methane mean of 3893 ppb alone could cause the
clouds tipping point to get crossed, resulting in an abrupt 8°C
temperature rise.
Such a high mean by 2026 cannot be ruled out, given the rapid
recent growth in mean annual methane levels (15.85 ppb in 2020,
see inset on image).
Additionally, there are further warming elements than just
carbon dioxide and methane, e.g. nitrous oxide and water vapor
haven't yet been included in the CO₂e total.
Moreover, it may not even be necessary for the global mean
methane level to reach 3893 ppb. A high methane peak in one
single spot may suffice and a peak of 3893 ppb of methane could
be reached soon, given that methane just reached a peak of 2862
ppb, while even higher peaks were reached over the past few
years, including a peak of 3369 ppb recorded on the afternoon of
August 31, 2018.
Abrupt stratocumulus cloud shattering
[ click on images to enlarge ]
Catastrophic crack propagation is what makes a balloon pop.
Could low-lying clouds similarly break up and vanish abruptly?
Could peak greenhouse gas concentrations in one spot break up
droplets into water vapor, thus raising CO₂e and
propagating break-up of more droplets, etc., to shatter entire
clouds?
In other words, an extra burst of methane from the seafoor of
the Arctic Ocean alone could suffice to trigger the clouds
tipping point and abruptly push temperatures up by an additional
8°C.
Omnicide?
This brings the IPCC views and suggestions into question. As
discussed above, for the average temperature to come down to
below 1.5°C over the period 1997-2026, temperatures would need
to fall over the next few years. What again would it take for
temperatures to fall over the next few years?
Imagine that all emissions of greenhouse gases by people would
end. Even if all emissions of greenhouse gases by people could
magically end right now, there would still be little or no
prospect for temperatures to fall over the next few years.
Reasons for this are listed below, and it is not an exhaustive
list since some things are hard to assess, such as whether
oceans will be able to keep absorbing as much heat and carbon
dioxide as they currently do.
By implication, there is no carbon budget left. Suggesting that
there was a carbon budget left, to be divided among polluters
and to be consumed over the next few years, that suggestion is
irresponsible. Below are some reasons why the temperature is
likely to rise over the next few years, rather than fall.
How likely is a rise of more than 3°C by 2026?
• The warming impact of carbon dioxide reaches its peak a decade
after emission, while methane's impact over ten years is huge,
so the warming impact of the greenhouse gases already in the
atmosphere is likely to prevent temperatures from falling and
could instead keep raising temperatures for some time to come.
• Temperatures are currently suppressed. We're in a La Niña
period, as illustrated by the image below.
[ click on images to enlarge ]
As NASA describes, El Niño events occur roughly every two to
seven years. As temperatures keep rising, ever more frequent
strong El Niño events are likely to occur. NOAA anticipates La
Niña to re-emerge during the fall or winter 2021/2022, so it's
likely that a strong El Niño will occur between 2023 and 2025.
• Rising temperatures can cause growth in sources of greenhouse
gases and a decrease in sinks. The image below shows how El
Niño/La Niña events and growth in CO₂ levels line up.
• We're also at a low point in the sunspot cycle. As the image
on the right shows, the number of sunspots can be expected to
rise as we head toward 2026, and temperatures can be expected to
rise accordingly. According to James Hansen et al., the
variation of solar irradiance from solar minimum to solar
maximum is of the order of 0.25 W/m⁻².
• Add to this the impact of a recent Sudden Stratospheric
Warming event. We are currently experiencing the combined impact
of three short-term variables that are suppressing the
temperature rise, i.e. a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event, a
La Niña event and a low in sunspots.
Over the next few years, in the absence of large volcano
eruptions and in the absence of Sudden Stratospheric Warming
events, a huge amount of heat could build up at surface level.
As the temperature impact of the other two short-term variables
reverses, i.e. as the sunspot cycle moves toward a peak and a El
Niño develops, this could push up temperatures substantially.
The world could be set up for a perfect storm by 2026, since
sunspots are expected to reach a peak by then and since it takes
a few years to move from a La Niña low to the peak of an El Niño
period.
• Furthermore, temperatures are currently also suppressed by
sulfate cooling. This impact is falling away as we progress with
the necessary transition away from fossil fuel and biofuel,
toward the use of more wind turbines and solar panels instead.
Aerosols typically fall out of the atmosphere within a few
weeks, so as the transition progresses, this will cause
temperatures to rise over the next few years. Most sulfates are
caused by large-scale industrial activity, such as coal-fired
power plants and smelters. A significant part of sulphur
emissions is also caused by volcanoes. Historically, some 20
volcanoes are actively erupting on any particular day. Of the 49
volcanoes that erupted during 2021, 45 volcanoes were still
active with continuing (for at least 3 months) eruptions as at
March 12, 2021.
• Also holding back the temperature rise at the moment is the
buffer effect of thick sea ice in the Arctic that consumes heat
as it melts. As Arctic sea ice thickness declines, more heat
will instead warm up the Arctic, resulting in albedo changes,
changes to the Jet Stream and possibly trigger huge releases of
methane from the seafloor. The rise in ocean temperature on the
Northern Hemisphere looks very threatening in this regard (see
image on the right) and many of these developments are discussed
at the extinction page. There are numerous further feedbacks
that look set to start kicking in with growing ferocity as
temperatures keep rising, such as releases of greenhouse gases
resulting from permafrost thawing and the decline of the snow
and ice cover. Some 30 feedbacks affecting the Arctic are
discussed at the feedbacks page.
• The conclusion of study after study is that the situation is
worse than expected and will get even worse as warming
continues. Some examples: a recent study found that the Amazon
rainforest is no longer a sink, but has become a source,
contributing to warming the planet instead; another study found
that soil bacteria release CO₂ that was previously thought
to remain trapped by iron; another study found that forest soil
carbon does not increase with higher CO₂ levels; another
study found that forests' long-term capacity to store carbon is
dropping in regions with extreme annual fires; a recent post
discussed a study finding that at higher temperatures,
respiration rates continue to rise in contrast to sharply
declining rates of photosynthesis, which under business-as-usual
emissions would nearly halve the land sink strength by as early
as 2040; the post also mentions a study on oceans that finds
that, with increased stratification, heat from climate warming
less effectively penetrates into the deep ocean, which
contributes to further surface warming, while it also reduces
the capability of the ocean to store carbon, exacerbating global
surface warming; finally, a recent study found that kelp off the
Californian coast has collapsed. So, both land and ocean sinks
look set to decrease as temperatures keep rising, while a 2020
study points out that the ocean sink will also immediately slow
down as future fossil fuel emission cuts drive reduced growth of
atmospheric CO₂.
Where do we go from here?
[ image from earlier post ]
The same blue trend that's in the image at the top also shows up
in the image on the right, from an earlier post, together with a
purple trend and a red trend that picture even worse scenarios
than the blue trend.
The purple trend is based on 15 recent years (2006-2020), so it
can cover a 30-year period (2006-2035) that is centered around
end December 2020. As the image shows, the purple trend points
at a rise of 10°C by 2026, leaving little or no scope for the
current acceleration to slow, let alone for the anomaly to
return to below 2°C.
The red trend is based on a dozen recent years (2009-2020) and
shows that the 2°C threshold could already have been crossed in
2020, while pointing at a rise of 18°C by 2025.
In conclusion, temperatures could rise by more than 3°C by the
end of 2026, as indicated by the blue trend in the image at the
top. At that point, humans will likely go extinct, making it in
many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen
beyond 2026. On the other hand, the right thing to do is to help
avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and
effective action as described in the Climate Plan.
#Post#: 298--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Digwe Must Date: May 13, 2021, 9:13 am
---------------------------------------------------------
JOW Yup. Things are bad and getting worse. We marvel at how OZ
has been taking the the worst of the changes. But, we aren't
far behind. This is shaping up to be a very dry year around the
West and the center of the US has seen very erratic weather.
Crop projections are down.
Guy M is a distraction. As you show, there are many other
people doing the work now. He shouldn't be a focus.
Thankfully, as others pointed out, the most extreme predictions
have not come to pass...so far. I haven't seen a model yet that
holds up without tweaking.
You mentioned the sunspot cycle and the magnetic field. The
field is so weak a relatively minor CME caused quite a fuss
yesterday.
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90EeTN2eXks&t=0s
I think preparing for the worst is a good strategy, if one can
do it. Part of that preparation is the knowledge that we don't
know precisely when the worst is going to show up or from what
direction it will approach.
#Post#: 300--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: May 13, 2021, 2:40 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=BuddyJ link=topic=14.msg299#msg299
date=1620917526]
[quote author=Digwe Must link=topic=14.msg298#msg298
date=1620915233]
I think preparing for the worst is a good strategy, if one can
do it. Part of that preparation is the knowledge that we don't
know precisely when the worst is going to show up or from what
direction it will approach.
[/quote]
Unfortunately, it is difficult to generate a solid reaction, or
even attract attention, if the claim or mechanism of doom must
be matched with "but maybe it'll happen after we're all dead and
gone". That would deflate Guy's gig pretty quickly, as just one
example.
[/quote]
I dont actually get too hung up on dates. I can see the storm
cloads coming, I dont need a soothsayer.
Preparing for the worst is actually better all around;
I am now totally out of debt, and have lived a frugal but
healthy lifestyle for at least 15 years with less stress than
most around me.
I have a stocked pantry so when fuck-knuckles buy all the loo
paper and white rice I have something to eat and dont have to
rub my arse on the front lawn....
I have a shed full of tools and fix things myself. (Saves a heap
of money and you actually learn something!)
I have a small generator, so when we have blackouts and
brownouts I can keep the fridge cold or the water pump going.
I have a garden which produces a small amount of excellent
produce and is enjoyable to look after, and helps keep us
healthy body and mind.
I have planted a shit load of trees and its made my homestead
the most beautiful and serene in the neighbourhood. The birds
love them!
Any minor setback, from a flat battery to leaking pipe or a
blown head gasket on my old 4WD we just handle without a fuss or
angst over how much it will cost. We just fix it.
Predictions are always best guesses. Right now things are a
little crazy, not just from climate change, which I see as the
big daddy of the issues which is relentlessly moving closer
while we deal with all the other short term calamities, many
amplified by climate change.... You find if you plan for one
disruption, such as climate change and associated fires,
droughts etc. it also makes you resiliant in the face of other
calamities, such as the covid lockdowns we have just been
through which resulted in my sons moving back in temporarily.
really did not cause a ripple in the homestead. Just went with
the flow. Only noticeable difference is we kept running out of
icecream...
In reality anyone can take steps to prepare for disruptions. It
can be as simple as getting out of debt to allow flexibility of
long term plans, or as I tell my oldest son, keep your petrol
tank topped off so you can head for the hills at the first sign
of trouble in an urban area. Learning a skill and trying to rely
less on others is a start. I am amazed at how many peopl dont
check the oil level intheir cars... They just drive it between
oil changes, which of course they pay others to do...
JOW
#Post#: 301--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: May 13, 2021, 2:41 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
What ?
This forum sensors my posts?
Shit
Fuck
Bastard
There goes half my vocabulary.
Pricks!
JOW
#Post#: 302--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Cam Date: May 13, 2021, 5:15 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=John of Wallan link=topic=14.msg300#msg300
date=1620934806]
I dont actually get too hung up on dates. I can see the storm
cloads coming, I dont need a soothsayer.
Preparing for the worst is actually better all around;
I am now totally out of debt, and have lived a frugal but
healthy lifestyle for at least 15 years with less stress than
most around me.
I have a stocked pantry so when ****-knuckles buy all the loo
paper and white rice I have something to eat and dont have to
rub my arse on the front lawn....
I have a shed full of tools and fix things myself. (Saves a heap
of money and you actually learn something!)
I have a small generator, so when we have blackouts and
brownouts I can keep the fridge cold or the water pump going.
I have a garden which produces a small amount of excellent
produce and is enjoyable to look after, and helps keep us
healthy body and mind.
I have planted a **** load of trees and its made my homestead
the most beautiful and serene in the neighbourhood. The birds
love them!
Any minor setback, from a flat battery to leaking pipe or a
blown head gasket on my old 4WD we just handle without a fuss or
angst over how much it will cost. We just fix it.
Predictions are always best guesses. Right now things are a
little crazy, not just from climate change, which I see as the
big daddy of the issues which is relentlessly moving closer
while we deal with all the other short term calamities, many
amplified by climate change.... You find if you plan for one
disruption, such as climate change and associated fires,
droughts etc. it also makes you resiliant in the face of other
calamities, such as the covid lockdowns we have just been
through which resulted in my sons moving back in temporarily.
really did not cause a ripple in the homestead. Just went with
the flow. Only noticeable difference is we kept running out of
icecream...
In reality anyone can take steps to prepare for disruptions. It
can be as simple as getting out of debt to allow flexibility of
long term plans, or as I tell my oldest son, keep your petrol
tank topped off so you can head for the hills at the first sign
of trouble in an urban area. Learning a skill and trying to rely
less on others is a start. I am amazed at how many peopl dont
check the oil level intheir cars... They just drive it between
oil changes, which of course they pay others to do...
JOW
[/quote]
This is how I see things as well. It's a fulfilling way to live.
[quote author=John of Wallan link=topic=14.msg301#msg301
date=1620934906]
What ?
This forum sensors my posts?
****
****
Bastard
There goes half my vocabulary.
Pricks!
JOW
[/quote]
Fuck this shit. Whoa it really does. I thought you were
self-censoring when I first read it, lol.
#Post#: 303--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Nearings fault Date: May 13, 2021, 5:29 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=John of Wallan link=topic=14.msg301#msg301
date=1620934906]
What ?
This forum sensors my posts?
****
****
Bastard
There goes half my vocabulary.
Pricks!
JOW
[/quote]
Let's try:
Ostie, tabarnac, kalisse...
Ok I'm covered, for those not french canadian that is
Holly host, tabernacle, and chalice.
My ancestors very very religious...
#Post#: 304--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Nearings fault Date: May 13, 2021, 5:32 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=John of Wallan link=topic=14.msg289#msg289
date=1620807860]
HTML https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/
Interesting article on expected climate refugees in North
America.....
JOW
[/quote]
That article tells me Canada better figure out what to do with
millions of Americans at the gate...
#Post#: 305--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: May 13, 2021, 5:43 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Nearings fault link=topic=14.msg304#msg304
date=1620945165]
[quote author=John of Wallan link=topic=14.msg289#msg289
date=1620807860]
HTML https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/
Interesting article on expected climate refugees in North
America.....
JOW
[/quote]
That article tells me Canada better figure out what to do with
millions of Americans at the gate...
[/quote]
I used to work with Merna from Mexico city. During your fat
bastard Emperors reign I used to tell her that in a few years
Mexico will be putting up their own wall to keep out the
Merikans trying to flee.
We are an island a long way from fucking anywhere here in
Shitsville, and we will be overrun with climate refugees, let
alone places with a land bridge to equatorial areas.
JOW
#Post#: 306--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: May 13, 2021, 5:45 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Shitsville got through.
I wonder in Fuckknuckleistan gets through.
JOW
#Post#: 311--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Phil Potts Date: May 14, 2021, 5:02 am
---------------------------------------------------------
The way I see it, even with warming Canada still has some -20
days in Ontario and -30C days in Ottawa and Quebec. Thats
hypothermia, so my concern going forward would be with gas and
electric supply if you don't have access to wood.
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