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#Post#: 584--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Eddie Date: July 11, 2021, 5:30 pm
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Major oil producers have quit spending money on
exploration.....and that is turning the majors into real cash
cows. In this world. businesses that have positive cash flow
remain valuable and will attract investment preferentially to
those businesses that don’t. Pretty simple.
The world is AWASH in money chasing return. Oil company stock,
all moral and political objections aside, currently represent a
good investment opportunity.
#Post#: 588--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: K-Dog Date: July 12, 2021, 8:47 pm
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[img]
HTML https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Frlv.zcache.com%2Fslick_devil_motor_oil_sticker-r87b9decf8048430698dbae1c0fb0a093_v9wz7_8byvr_540.jpg&f=1&nofb=1[/img]
[move]Concerning investments signed in blood. Yield on the
timescale of eternity is very low.[/move]
#Post#: 615--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom: The climate change panic button is coming
By: John of Wallan Date: July 18, 2021, 5:51 pm
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Most interesting who is concerned about climate change: Finance
industry and defence departments. They can see the disruption
coming.
All the while those with vested interest downplay issue.
JOW
Link:
HTML https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2021/07/19/climate-change-panic-alan-kohler/
Text:
FINANCE FINANCE NEWS
6:00am, Jul 19, 2021 Updated: 2h ago
Alan Kohler: The climate change panic button is coming
climate change alan kohler
Governments need to hit the panic button on climate change,
writes Alan Kohler. Photo: TND/Getty
This week it’s floods in Germany, 170 dead and terrible
devastation.
A few weeks ago people were dying from the heat in Canada, which
reached about 49 degrees Celsius in Lytton, British Columbia.
Wildfires are now breaking out across North America.
This is from the global warming that has already occurred, which
is about 1.2 degrees above the pre-industrial age.
The world is now trying to stop it going above 1.5 degrees by
getting emissions down to net zero by 2050.
Even if we succeed in that, which is far from guaranteed, the
extreme weather events will be significantly worse and more
frequent than they are now.
But at what point will governments hit the real panic button?
Because net zero by 2050 is not it.
Weighing up risk
The reason many are still negotiating, prevaricating and putting
it off is that governments and businesses are not looking at
global warming in terms of risk, but are using scenario analysis
instead.
For example, the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority
issued a draft prudential practice guide on climate change in
April, which included 4 degrees of warming as one of its two
“scenarios” for banks to use in their future planning.
A 4 degree rise in the average global temperature would make
large parts of the planet uninhabitable and lead to the total
collapse of the banking system. No need for any planning.
The other APRA scenario was for 2 degrees of warming or less,
consistent with the Paris Agreement, which should happen if all
countries meet their Paris pledges, which so far they’re not.
And even under that scenario, the banking system barely
survives.
There was nothing especially wrong with APRA’s guidance note –
it was just a typical example of the arse-covering required by
bureaucrats and corporate executives to cover their
environmental, social and governance (ESG) obligations, with a
paper trail to prove they did it.
But it highlights the problem with using scenarios instead of
risk analysis.
germany floods july 2021
The recent floods in Germany were the latest example of
devastating climate change. Photo: AAP
Since most countries are now committed to net-zero emissions by
2050, even though the policies to achieve that have not been
implemented, everyone can assume that the scenario of 1.5
degrees is locked in – a likelihood of 100 per cent. But that’s
not correct.
Even then there would still be a two-thirds risk of it being 2
degrees instead of 1.5, because of feedback loops caused by more
carbon dioxide being released by the warming that has occurred.
Current policies, unchanged, would result in 2.4 degrees of
warming, which would be terrible, but there would be a high risk
(about 67 per cent) of 3 degrees, which would be catastrophic.
Lessons from AstraZeneca
Precise risk analysis of global warming is difficult because
feedback loop tipping points are unknown and unpredictable.
It’s known that with 1.5 to 2 degrees of warming, the
combination of permafrost melt in Siberia, wildfires in the
world’s forests and warming of the ocean will release more
carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which means a feedback loop
could take the temperature to 2.5 degrees above pre-industrial
temperatures – and perhaps beyond – no matter what we do.
I was reminded of the power of risk analysis by the recent
reaction to the risk of blood clots and death from the
AstraZeneca vaccine.
It appears to be something like one in 88,000, or 0.0011 per
cent to get a clot.
If that happens, the chance of then dying is 4 per cent, which
boils down to a 0.00044 per cent chance of dying from having the
AstraZeneca vaccine.
On the strength of that risk, the UK discontinued AstraZeneca
for under-40s and the Australian medical authorities have warned
against it, and people are shunning it in droves and waiting for
Pfizer.
The risk of catastrophe and even extinction as a result of
global warming is a lot higher than 0.00044 per cent and yet
most of us are still driving petrol cars and eating steaks and
hamburgers, and governments are still talking about targets 30
years away (or not, in Australia’s case).
Climate panic button
Whatever the temperature gets to – whether it be 1.5, 2, 3 or 4
degrees of warming – it would be a global average, uneven across
the planet.
Anything much more than 1.5 degrees and heatwaves in some parts
of the world would make them too hot to survive for some of the
year, so humans couldn’t live there at all.
Daily life everywhere else would be an unbearable succession of
extreme weather events, as we are seeing in Germany at the
moment.
Sea level would rise by 1.5 to 2 metres, making many coastal and
low-lying areas uninhabitable.
As a result, millions, possibly billions, of people would be
displaced making a mess of global borders.
Banking and insurance would become impossible. The financial
system would collapse.
What’s the risk of that? 10 per cent? 1 per cent?
Even if it was 1 per cent, that would be like two or three
planes a day crashing after take-off in Australia – which would
lead to zero take-offs until it was fixed.
At some point well before 2050, governments will be forced to
switch to risk analysis for climate change, and to publish the
result.
Unless scientists say the risk is zero – which they won’t – then
whatever they come up with, political leaders will be forced to
hit the panic button by alarmed voters.
What does the panic button look like?
I’m not sure, but here are some thoughts: Fossil fuels would be
suddenly and totally banned, or made prohibitively expensive,
and oil, gas and coal would instantly go bust; physical tourism
would be banned and air travel confined to essentials and rich
elites so the airline industry would collapse; the lithium
battery and hydrogen would suddenly boom.
And so on.
Life would change more completely than it has during the
pandemic.
In short, it would look like war.
Alan Kohler writes twice a week for The New Daily. He is also
editor in chief of Eureka Report and finance presenter on ABC
news
#Post#: 616--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: July 18, 2021, 5:58 pm
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Proifit to the end at all cost.
JOW
[attachment deleted by admin]
#Post#: 618--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: July 19, 2021, 12:51 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=BuddyJ link=topic=14.msg617#msg617
date=1626651814]
[quote author=John of Wallan link=topic=14.msg615#msg615
date=1626648665]
What does the panic button look like?
[/quote]
The Great Dieoff happening by the end of the 1980's?
I appreciate the extra 30 years we've had instead, and like
everyone else, every morning, wonder if this day will indeed be
the day. 30 years of waiting, you can understand that some are
unlikely to get their panties in a wad with every iteration of
the rinse-repeat-recycle thing. Now...get a BOE arriving, and
causing everyone in S. Louisiana and Galveston and all of
Florida dying of wet bulb death, and I'm guessing more folks
will perk up to the importance of the topic.
As far as the future...well....there are no facts in the future,
and there are no side cases in the past.
[/quote]
Like I said: All the while those with vested interest downplay
issues.
JOW
#Post#: 619--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Phil Potts Date: July 19, 2021, 2:01 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=John of Wallan link=topic=14.msg618#msg618
date=1626673868]
[quote author=BuddyJ link=topic=14.msg617#msg617
date=1626651814]
[quote author=John of Wallan link=topic=14.msg615#msg615
date=1626648665]
What does the panic button look like?
[/quote]
The Great Dieoff happening by the end of the 1980's?
I appreciate the extra 30 years we've had instead, and like
everyone else, every morning, wonder if this day will indeed be
the day. 30 years of waiting, you can understand that some are
unlikely to get their panties in a wad with every iteration of
the rinse-repeat-recycle thing. Now...get a BOE arriving, and
causing everyone in S. Louisiana and Galveston and all of
Florida dying of wet bulb death, and I'm guessing more folks
will perk up to the importance of the topic.
As far as the future...well....there are no facts in the future,
and there are no side cases in the past.
[/quote]
Like I said: All the while those with vested interest downplay
issues.
JOW
[/quote]
Who is it that predicted die off by end of 80s anyway, out of
curiosity?
Club of Rome commissioned Limits to Growth in 1970, released
1972:
After reviewing their computer simulations, the research team
came to the following conclusions:[1]:23–24
Given business as usual, i.e., no changes to historical growth
trends, the limits to growth on earth would become evident by
2072, leading to "sudden and uncontrollable decline in both
population and industrial capacity". This includes the
following:
Global Industrial output per capita reaches a peak around 2008,
followed by a rapid decline
Global Food per capita reaches a peak around 2020, followed by a
rapid decline
Global Services per capita reaches a peak around 2020, followed
by a rapid decline
Global population reaches a peak in 2030, followed by a rapid
decline
Growth trends existing in 1972 could be altered so that
sustainable ecological and economic stability could be achieved.
The sooner the world's people start striving for the second
outcome above, the better the chance of achieving it.
If you look at Morgan Stanley 'the rise of the sheconomy',
they're predicting by 2030 the majority of women age 20-50 will
be single and childless in the US. Spain, Italy and Japan are
already predicted to have half the population by 2100.
So even though builders can't get the timber to build houses
after the bushfires, climate change is just a wild card.
Alan Kohler is as mainstream as you can get. He's speaking for
the plans of the real power players letting us know in advance
what they have in store. Lockdown to flatten the curve leading
to all sorts of things above and beyond flattening the curve
were a trial run of the panic button described. No non essential
air travel, for one. The whole GDP growth economic system is
planned to be packed up is what they're clearly telling us.
Money as metaphor for resources and energy. Take note of the
last feature described. Lithium and rare earth get very
valuable. So there's no total replacement of the number of cars
on the roads now with EV. The environmental destruction of
mining the lithium and rare earth, plus the battery disposal and
recycling alone, makes it improbable. Then there's the question
of what type of power charges them. Kohler and FT is letting us
know it ain't really happening Virginia. You walk down to buy a
bug burger. If you don't see much of a future ahead, you add not
even wanting offspring to every other barrier to bringing them
into being.
#Post#: 620--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: July 19, 2021, 3:40 am
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Looks like Club of Rome has been pretty good with their
predictions so far +/- 5 years.
I for one do not for one second think EV's will replace ICE
vehicles to transport us like we enjoy today.
Nope.
It will be ICE until there is nothing, and we go back to horse
and cart.
Technology wont save us. It may just buy us a bit more time to
screw things up a bit more until we start to screw things up a
lot less all of a sudden.
I just think this will happen a bit sooner than a lot of people
expected.
JOW
#Post#: 624--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Phil Potts Date: July 19, 2021, 3:49 pm
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[quote author=BuddyJ link=topic=14.msg622#msg622
date=1626709386]
Can you not get it in your neck of the woods, or have you just
not checked availability lately? And of COURSE climate change is
a wild card, it is probably the greatest long term investing
wild card going on right now.
Do you buy ocean front property now, while it is still 5m above
sea level, or not?
[quote author=Phil Potts]
Alan Kohler is as mainstream as you can get. [/quote]
I'll take your word for it, not having a clue who he is.
[/quote]
Here in Oz, a builder was telling me a couple of weeks ago most
of the Victorian plantation was burnt and there's nothing on the
racks at suppliers. I guess that's why there seemed to be triple
the log trucks lately here in Tassie, they have to harvest more
to ship to the mainland. No doubt more native forest then gets
cleared to try and make up for what's been cut early. Keep in
mind the fires were a couple of years ago, but where the tree
needs to be probably ten years old, it's not an easy thing to
restore full capacity.
On EVs, I'm not talking about the pros and cons of individuals
owning them (at current price of petrol/diesel and road taxes
paid only at the pump). I'm talking about the possibility of
mining the lithium and other rare earth minerals to build,
charge daily or nightly with renewable energy and dispose of at
least a billion batteries as big as a single bed mattress every
4 years.
In the article Kohler does adress your argument: " and yet most
of us are still driving petrol cars and eating steaks and
hamburgers, and governments are still talking about targets 30
years away (or not, in Australia’s case)".
I'm saying don't pay attention to what hasn't happened, pay
attention to what is happening. What policies are being planned
and legislated to achieve no net emissions in 29 yrs. Do cattle
farmers in Belgium block roads in protest of being put out of
business to cut the cows methane. Did bill gates become the
largest owner of farmland in the US so he can have tractors and
other machines belching emissions on it. Does he intend cutting
it's vegetation down to stubble or doing more for
photosynthesis. Is there a connection with the world's largest
insect protein plant being in the US instead of India or Africa.
Are dairy farmers here put out of business by not having access
to rivers and the price of milk kept lower than bottled water.
Other people bought the water in the river that the farmers
father thought he owned.
I don't read Kohler twice mentioning an end to the banking
industry as necessarily only if climate change makes half the
planet uninhabitable, as he mentioned. I read that as
cultivating our minds to consider and accept an end to the
banking industry, because it depends on GDP growth, which
depends on population and consumption growth.
I don't know about the rest of you, but I see with a lot of the
people I know, they're in their 30s and don't own a property or
can only do it with help of a boomer parent. Even if they're a
couple, they have no kids. There you have it, not supporting the
banks with 30yrs of mortgage and house payments and when they're
gone, no new consumers to take their place (if there is even
enough habitable environment). It's reasonable to ask if this is
a chicken and egg conundrum; the pressure on resources causes
pressure on cost of living, causing decline in population.
#Post#: 626--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: July 19, 2021, 6:30 pm
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Proof we are doomed.
The world is full of morons and has gone completely crazy.
JOW
Link:
HTML https://www.drive.com.au/news/ford-creates-petrol-fume-fragrance-for-electric-mustang-mach-e/?utm_campaign=syndication&utm_source=smh.com.au&utm_content=article_3&utm_medium=partner
Text:
Ford creates petrol fume fragrance for electric Mustang Mach-E
Some electric cars have fake petrol engine sounds, now there is
a fake petrol smell.
Joshua Dowling
Ford of Europe has created what it describes as a “premium
fragrance” for those who miss the whiff of petrol in the new
electric Mustang Mach-E.
A better description might be a premium unleaded fragrance.
For now, though, the Ford Mustang Mach-E petrol-inspired
fragrance is not available to the public to buy, but there’s a
chance this potion could put someone else on the scent of
creating something similar.
Mach-Eau GT was created by fragrance supplier Olfiction, with
input from Pia Long, an associate perfumer in the British
Society of Perfumers who has previously worked with some of the
world’s most famous perfume brands, according to Ford in a media
statement.
Ford said the fragrance was inspired by “chemicals that are
emitted from car interiors, engines and petrol” – including
benzaldehyde, “an almond-like scent given off by car interiors”,
and para-cresol which is “key in creating the rubbery scent of
tyres”.
Ford says these scents were blended with ingredients such as
“blue ginger, lavender, geranium and sandalwood that added
metallic, smoky and further rubbery accents”.
Meanwhile, a Ford-commissioned survey claims one in five drivers
said the smell of petrol is what they’d miss most when swapping
to an electric vehicle, “with almost 70 per cent claiming they
would miss the smell of petrol to some degree”.
“Petrol also ranked as a more popular scent than both wine and
cheese, and almost identically to the smell of new books” among
car enthusiasts, said Ford.
Ford revealed the fragrance at last weekend’s Goodwood Festival
of Speed in the UK.
“Judging by our survey findings, the sensory appeal of petrol
cars is still something drivers are reluctant to give up,” said
a Ford of Europe spokesperson. “The Mach-Eau fragrance is
designed to give them a hint of that fuel-fragrance they still
crave.”
#Post#: 628--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Phil Potts Date: July 20, 2021, 4:18 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=BuddyJ link=topic=14.msg625#msg625
date=1626730108]
my batteries are now 7 years old, and 6 years old, and why in
the world would I be replacing them every 4 years when they are
doing just fine, headed to half again to twice as much
longevity?
[/quote]
I see a lot of 'i get 40 mpg from a 10 yr old prius', but thats
about right for any 1.5 litre little car. I'm thinking a 5 yr
old prius probably gets 50 mpg and a new one 60mpg. I suspect
hybrid owners batteries are fine after 7 yrs because the car
doesn't lose range, just burns more gas.
Electric only cars will probably be getting 80% range after 5-7
yrs if they charge slowly like at least 4 hrs, not if they get
fast charged every day.
I got junior a full mechanics set of Milwaukee impact driver,
cordless screwdriver, electric ratchet and wheel nut rattle gun
cordless. I figured 5 yr warranty can't go wrong. After 3 yrs I
asked if he needs new batteries, he said they're still fine. I
thought the charger was a fast charger but it's probably a
slower one and that's how they make the warranty 5yrs. Builders
who fast charge cordless tools every day only get 3 yrs out of
batts and most warranty are 3 yrs.
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