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#Post#: 451--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: June 5, 2021, 1:52 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Guns and spam I tells ya, guns and spam.
JOW
Link:
HTML http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
THURSDAY, JUNE 3, 2021
Greenhouse gas levels keep rising at accelerating rates
At the Paris Agreement in 2015, politicians pledged to limit the
global temperature rise from pre-industrial levels to 1.5°C and
promised to stop rises in greenhouse gas emissions as soon as
possible and to make rapid reductions in accordance with best
available science, to achieve a balance between people's
emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases
in the second half of this century.
Yet, greenhouse gas levels keep rising and the rise appears to
be accelerating.
Carbon Dioxide
Annual growth rates of carbon dioxide (CO₂) have been
rising for decades.
The February 2021 global CO₂ level was 415.88 parts per
million (ppm), which was 2.96 ppm higher than the February 2020
global CO₂ level. On April 8, 2021, CO₂ levels at
Mauna Loa, Hawaii, reached a peak of 421.36 ppm.
Methane
The 2020 global annual methane (CH₄) growth rate of 15.85
ppb was the highest on record. The global CH₄ level in
January 2021 was 1893.4 ppb, 20 ppb higher than the January 2020
level.
The image at the top shows a trend indicating that CH₄
could reach a level of 4000 ppb in 2026, which at a 1-year GWP
of 200 translates into 800 ppm CO₂e, so just adding this
to the current CO₂ level would cause the Clouds Tipping
Point at 1200 CO₂e to be crossed, which in itself could
raise global temperatures by 8°C, as described in an earlier
post.
Nitrous Oxide
The 2020 global annual nitrous oxide (N₂O) growth rate of
1.33 ppb was the highest on record. The global N₂O level
in January 2021 was 333.9 ppb, 1.4 ppb higher than the January
2020 level.
Greenhouse gas levels are accelerating, despite promises by
politicians to make dramatic cuts in emissions. As it turns out,
politicians have not taken the action they promised they would
take.
Of course, when also adding nitrous oxide, the Clouds Tipping
Point can get crossed even earlier.
Elements contributing to temperature rise
Next to rising greenhouse gas levels, there are further elements
that can contribute to a huge temperature rise soon.
As illustrated by above image by Nico Sun, the accumulation of
energy going into melting the sea ice is at record high for the
time of year.
As illustrated by above combination image, the thickness of the
sea ice is now substantially less than it used to be. The image
compares June 1, 2021 (left), with June 1, 2015 (right).
The animation on the right shows that sea ice is getting rapidly
thinner, indicating that the buffer constituted by the sea ice
underneath the surface is almost gone, meaning that further heat
entering the Arctic Ocean will strongly heat up the water.
As described in an earlier post, this can destabilizate methane
hydrates in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean,
resulting in eruption of methane from these hydrates and from
methane that is located in the form of free gas underneath such
hydrates.
Such methane eruptions will first of all heat up the Arctic,
resulting in loss of Arctic sea ice's ability to reflect
sunlight back into space (albedo feedback), in disappearing
glaciers and in rapidly thawing terrestrial permafrost (and the
associated release of greenhouse gases).
The Snowball Effect
Temperatures are rising and they are rising at accelerating
pace, especially in the Arctic. A strong El Niño and a
distortion in the jet stream could cause the latent heat and
methane hydrates tipping points to be crossed soon, causing many
feedbacks to kick in with ever greater ferocity, and pushing up
the global temperature beyond 3°C, 4°C and 5°C above
pre-industrial, like a snowball that keeps growing in size while
picking up ever more snow, as it is racing down a very steep
slope.
Crossing of tipping points and further events and developments
can combine with feedbacks into a snowball effect of rapidly
rising temperatures.
Feedbacks include changes to the Jet Stream that result in ever
more extreme weather events such as storms and forest fires.
Such events can cause huge emissions of greenhouse gases.
Temperatures can also be expected to rise over the next few
years as sulfate cooling decreases. Aerosols can further cause
additional warming if more black carbon and brown carbon gets
emitted due to more wood getting burned and more forest fires
taking place. Black carbon and brown carbon have a net warming
effect and can settle on snow and ice and speed up their
decline.
Therefore, the 8°C rise as a result of crossing the Clouds
Tipping Point would come on top of the warming due to other
elements, and the total rise could be as high as 18°C or 32.4°F
from preindustrial, as ilustrated by the image on the right,
from an earlier post.
In conclusion, there could be a huge temperature rise by 2026.
At a 3°C rise, humans will likely go extinct, making it from
some perspectives futile to speculate about what will happen
beyond 2026.
Even so, the right thing to do is to help avoid the worst things
from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as
described in the Climate Plan.
Links
• Climate Plan
HTML https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
• Paris Agreement
HTML https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf
• NOAA: Trends in Greenhouse gases
HTML https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends
• Overshoot or Omnicide?
HTML https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/03/overshoot-or-omnicide.html
• Cryosphere Computing - by Nico Sun
HTML https://cryospherecomputing.tk
• Arctic Ocean invaded by hot, salty water
HTML https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/05/arctic-ocean-invaded-by-hot-salty-water.html
• Naval Research Laboratry - sea ice thickness
HTML https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html
• Feedbacks in the Arctic
HTML https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html
• A rise of 18°C or 32.4°F by 2026?
HTML https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/02/a-rise-of-18c-or-324f-by-2026.html
• Most Important Message Ever
HTML https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/07/most-important-message-ever.html
Posted by Sam Carana at 12:03 AM
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Labels: Arctic, clouds, greenhouse gases, ocean, rise, sea ice,
temperature, thickness
#Post#: 507--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: June 25, 2021, 6:09 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
UN comes out with usual wishy washy language to get past the
veto of all the climate change skeptic members.
JOW
Link:
HTML https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20210623-leaked-un-climate-report-warns-of-radical-changes-in-coming-years-ipcc-environment-global-warming
Text:
Leaked UN climate report warns of radical changes in coming
years
Issued on: 23/06/2021 - 22:07
With dangerous thresholds closer than thought, the choices that
societies make now will determine whether our species thrives or
simply survives during the 21st century, a leaked IPCC report
has warned.
With dangerous thresholds closer than thought, the choices that
societies make now will determine whether our species thrives or
simply survives during the 21st century, a leaked IPCC report
has warned. © ORLANDO SIERRA AFP
Text by:
Amanda Morrow
Follow
3 min
The crushing impacts of climate change will hit sooner than
expected – with millions of people afflicted by hunger, drought
and disease in the coming decades, a leaked UN report has
warned.
Advertising
The outlook for the planet is bleak, even if global climate
targets are met.
Scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
say species extinction, extreme weather, ecosystem collapse and
the spread of disease will be deeply felt within the next 30
years.
The draft report, which was seen by AFP but which will not be
made public until next year, is the most comprehensive
assessment on how global warming will affect both the planet and
humankind.
#EXCLUSIVE Climate change will fundamentally reshape life on
Earth in coming decades, even if humans can tame planet-warming
greenhouse gas emissions, says a landmark draft report from UN's
climate science advisors obtained by @AFP
HTML https://t.co/Q4ytmReVky
pic.twitter.com/gry8gRPjsF
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) June 23, 2021
Closer thresholds
With dangerous thresholds closer than thought, the choices that
societies make now will determine whether our species thrives or
simply survives during the 21st century, the report said.
While slashing emissions and promoting plant-based diets can
limit the damage to human health, the fallout resulting from
decades of unchecked carbon pollution will be unavoidable in the
short term.
Australia to challenge Unesco 'downgrade' of Great Barrier
Reef
Frost that devastated French vineyards linked to climate
change
Many land and marine ecosystems had reached, or surpassed, their
ability to adapt to climate change, the scientists said.
The world has warmed by more than 1° Celsius since
pre-industrial times, and is on track for 2.9C of warming under
existing policies. The Paris Agreement aims to limit warming to
“well below” 2C.
Grim outlook
The IPCC report found that in a world that was 2C hotter,
animals such as penguins, polar bears, seals and corals reefs
would be threatened.
In addition, 15 percent of the planet's permafrost would be lost
by 2100, releasing up to 67 billion tonnes of carbon from the
frozen soil into the atmosphere.
Warming of between 2C and 3C would see more than half of life on
earth threatened with extinction.
#Post#: 508--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: June 25, 2021, 6:11 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Florida is flooding... What could possibly be causing that?
JOW
Link:
HTML https://outline.com/F3q4Ev
Text:
‘The water is coming’: Florida Keys faces stark reality as seas
rise
Oliver Milman June 24, 2021
Long famed for its spectacular fishing, sprawling coral reefs
and literary residents such as Ernest Hemingway, the Florida
Keys is now acknowledging a previously unthinkable reality: it
faces being overwhelmed by the rising seas and not every home
can be saved.
Following a grueling seven-hour public meeting on Monday, held
in the appropriately named city of Marathon, officials agreed to
push ahead with a plan to elevate streets throughout the Keys to
keep them from perpetual flooding, while admitting they do not
have the money to do so.
The string of coral cay islands that unspool from the southern
tip of Florida finds itself on the frontline of the climate
crisis, forcing unenviable choices upon a place that styles
itself as sunshine-drenched idyll. The lives of Keys residents –
a mixture of wealthy, older white people, the one in four who
are Hispanic or Latino, and those struggling in poverty – face
being upended.
If the funding isn’t found, the Keys will become one of the
first places in the US – and certainly not the last – to inform
residents that certain areas will have to be surrendered to the
oncoming tides.
“The water is coming and we can’t stop it,” said Michelle
Coldiron, mayor of Monroe county, which encompasses the Keys.
“Some homes will have to be elevated, some will have to be
bought out. It’s very difficult to have these conversations with
homeowners, because this is where they live. It can get very
emotional.”
A town board meeting at the government building in Marathon,
Florida on June 21, 2021.
A town board meeting at the government building in Marathon,
Florida on June 21, 2021. Photograph: Saul Martinez/The Guardian
Once people are unable to secure mortgages and insurance for
soaked homes, the Keys will cease to be a livable place long
before it’s fully underwater, according to Harold Wanless, a
geographer at the University of Miami. “People don’t have a
concept of what sea level rise will do to them. They just can’t
conceive it,” he said.
On Monday, the county gave details of its plan to spend $1.8bn
over the next 25 years to raise 150 miles of roads in the Keys,
deploying a mixture of new drains, pump stations and vegetation
to prevent the streets becoming inundated with seawater. The
heightened roadways are eagerly anticipated by residents who
told the meeting of cars being ruined by the salt water and of
donning boots to wade to front doors.
“The roads are shot, they’re full of cracks, the water is
permeating up,” said Kimberly Sikora, who lives in a vulnerable
neighborhood of Key Largo called Stillwright Point that is still
awaiting a full road elevation proposal. “I’m just looking for
some kind of relief.”
Another resident, Robert Schaller of Twin Lakes, an area further
along in the planning process, muttered that he “should’ve done
my due diligence” when buying his house last year. “I literally
stand on my balcony and watch the water come up through my
street,” he said. “It’s coming up right through the pavement.”
But Monroe county’s budget will not cover the raising of all the
roads, nor any mass buyout of homes, and an appeal to Florida
state lawmakers to levy a new tax to cover these mounting costs
has been rebuffed. Further costs will pile up as the county
grapples with how – and who pays - to keep critical
infrastructure such as sewers and power substations, as well as
people’s homes, from being flooded along with the roads.
“If we can’t raise additional money then we will have to look at
prioritizing,” said Rhonda Haag, Monroe county’s chief
resilience officer.
“For example, should we spend money on raising roads if people
aren’t paying to raise their yards? We are blazing trails here.
We are ahead of everyone in having to think about this.”
Homes on a canal that frequently gets flooded, in Key Largo on
Monday.
Homes on a canal that frequently gets flooded, in Key Largo on
Monday. Photograph: Saul Martinez/The Guardian
The pancake-flat Keys are in jeopardy from rising seas that are,
as a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa)
scientist told the county commissioners in the Monday meeting,
accelerating upwards as the vast ice sheets of Greenland and
Antarctica melt away. Human-caused global heating means an extra
17in of sea level rise by 2040, according to an intermediate
Noaa projection used by the county.
Compounding this problem, the islands’ porous limestone allows
the rising seawater to bubble up from below, meaning it just
takes high tides on sunny days to turn roads into ponds, while
global heating is also spurring fiercer hurricanes that can
occasionally crunch into the archipelago.
“The Florida Keys are one of the most vulnerable places to
flooding in North America,” said Kristina Hill, an environmental
planner at the University of California, Berkeley, who warned
that the islands would face growing road and pipe maintenance
costs, more pollution leaks and harmful algal blooms.
“Without a change in strategy, parts of the Keys will become
accessible only by boat,” said Hill, adding that the islands
could have to resort to floating structures and navigable canals
to remain viable. “The islands will gradually disappear into a
higher ocean, potentially leaving a ruined landscape of leaky
underground storage tanks, old pipes, and flooded road segments
behind to pollute the water.”
A sign reads ‘Salt Water No Wake’ as ocean water floods a street
in Key Largo in October 2019.
A sign reads ‘Salt Water No Wake’ as ocean water floods a street
in Key Largo in October 2019. Photograph: Joe Raedle/Getty
Images
The threats faced by the Keys are shrugged off by some of its
wealthy retirees who view the situation with a certain fatalism,
while others in this Republican-voting bastion openly question
the science. Eddie Martinez, one of the county’s five elected
commissioners, challenged the Noaa scientist, William Sweet, on
his sea level rise projections on Monday.
The sea level rise to date is “really a nothing number”, said
Martinez, who told Sweet: “You’re a little bit more on this CO2
side, I’m more on the actual measurement side.” Another
commissioner, David Rice, said that “predicting the future is
probably best done with a crystal ball” and speculated that
global temperatures could change following several volcanic
eruptions.
“There are people who don’t want to sell because they love it
here, others who want to get out while they can and those in
complete denial who call you a troublemaker who is driving down
property values by talking about it,” said George Smyth, a
retiree who moved to Key Largo a decade ago for the quiet,
slow-paced lifestyle. In 2019, his neighborhood spent 90 days
partially submerged in water.
The nature of the Keys has changed in this time. While the
islands still include pockets of poverty, an influx of affluent
second-home owners has caused new properties to sprout up around
Smyth. “It used to be pretty rough and tumble, you’d see a few
fights on a Saturday night,” he said. “Now everyone looks like
they’ve just come from the cosmetic dentist.”
A view of the ocean from a local park that frequently gets
flooded when water levels rise, in Key Largo.
A view of the ocean from a local park that frequently gets
flooded when water levels rise, in Key Largo. Photograph: Saul
Martinez/The Guardian
Other new realities are more laborious – Smyth has to wash his
car continually to rid it of salt water and has to pay for
trucks to unload piles of crushed-up rocks around his property
as a buffer against the encroaching tides. While Smyth doesn’t
class himself as particularly wealthy, these protections are
beyond the means of low-income Keys residents, many of whom live
in exposed mobile homes dotted along the islands.
Smyth fears that the county will require poorer residents to
stump up the money for the roads, rather than put a levy on the
tourists that flock to the Keys. “We feel we are being held
hostage,” he said. “I feel sorrow for what is coming and the
loss of what is a wonderful community.”
But the mayor defiantly insists the Keys can be saved, even if
it is currently unclear how. “We know we live in paradise and we
want to keep it that way,” said Coldiron.
#Post#: 510--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: K-Dog Date: June 27, 2021, 10:59 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
It is going to be over 43 degrees C tomorrow in Seattle. I
might smoke from spontaneous combustion. Change is coming a bit
faster than anyone thought.
#Post#: 511--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: June 28, 2021, 5:26 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=K-Dog link=topic=14.msg510#msg510 date=1624852771]
It is going to be over 43 degrees C tomorrow in Seattle. I
might smoke from spontaneous combustion. Change is coming a bit
faster than anyone thought.
[/quote]
Oh shit. Seattle. Thats way up North West Coast!.
We get into the low 40s here for a week or 2 every summer. 43;
Thats starting to get pretty hot.
Much over this starts killing trees and birds very quickly, even
our natives eucalypts which are pretty heat tollerant, let alone
your more temperate species you guys have.
Water everything the day before and later the same afternoon
once heat has started to subside.
Stay in shade and drink plenty of water if AC goes out. Sit
under a tree you have watered.
If its humid you are fucked.
Every degree once you get over 42 makes a big difference.
Be carefull. Dont be complacent.
We are used to these temps and still every year people die of
heat stroke, and small children and animals die in cars within
mimutes.
Yep. Change is coming quicker than we think.
JOW
#Post#: 512--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Phil Potts Date: June 28, 2021, 4:02 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=John of Wallan link=topic=14.msg511#msg511
date=1624875985]
[quote author=K-Dog link=topic=14.msg510#msg510 date=1624852771]
It is going to be over 43 degrees C tomorrow in Seattle. I
might smoke from spontaneous combustion. Change is coming a bit
faster than anyone thought.
[/quote]
Oh ****. Seattle. Thats way up North West Coast!.
[/quote]
I heard it's also quite progressive, so gain extra airflow and
an all over tan by going the full monty. Don't keep it to
yourself, ask a few others to hang out
[attachment deleted by admin]
#Post#: 516--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: July 1, 2021, 1:35 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Its not real... Its a conspiracy I tells you.
Its not getting hotter. We are just measuring it differently.
Its mind control. No, its aliens.
Russians?
Oh well. Business as usual is fine as long as we are all ok and
making money. Oh, wait...
JOW
Link:
HTML http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
Heatwaves and the danger of the Arctic Ocean heating up
Heatwaves and Jet Stream Changes
Heatwaves are increasingly hitting higher latitudes, as
illustrated by the forecasts below. The background behind this
is that the temperature rise caused by people's emissions is
also causing changes to the jet streams.
[ click on images to enlarge ]
These changes to the Jet Stream are increasingly creating
conditions for heatwaves to strike at very high latitudes, as
also illustrated by the images on the right.
The first image on the right shows that surface temperatures as
high as 48°C or 118.3°F are forecast in the State of Washington
for June 30, 2021, at 01:00 UTC, at a latitude of 46.25°N. At
the same time, even higher temperatures are forecast nearby at
1000 hPa level (temperatures as high as 119.4°C or 48.6°C).
The next two images on the right show what happened to the jet
stream. One image shows instantaneous wind power density at 250
hPa, i.e. at an altitude where the jet stream circumnavigates
the globe, on June 26, 2021 at 11:00 UTC. The image features two
green circles. The top green circle marks a location where the
jet stream is quite forceful and reaches a speed of 273 km/h or
170 mph. The bottom green circle marks the same location where
the 48°C is forecast on June 30, 2021. This shows how heat has
been able to move north from as early as June 26, 2021.
The next image on the right shows the situation on June 30,
2021, 04:00 UTC, illustrating how such a jet stream pattern can
remain in place (blocked) for several days (in this case for
more than five days). The green circle again marks the same
location where the 48°C is forecast (in the top image on the
right).
This illustrates how a more wavy jet stream can enable high
temperatures to rise to higher latitudes, while holding a
pattern in place for several days, thus pushing up temperatures
over time in the area.
As said, these changes in the jet stream that are enabling hot
air to rise up to high latitudes are caused by global warming.
Accelerating warming in the Arctic is causing the temperature
difference between the North Pole and the Equator to narrow,
which in turn is making the jet stream more wavy.
The next image on the right shows that a UV index reading as
high as 12 (extreme) is forecast for a location at 51.56°N in
Washington for June 28, 2021, illustrating that such an extreme
level of UV can occur at high latitudes, due to changes in the
jet stream.
Accelerated Warming in the Arctic
As the temperature rise is accelerating due to people's
emissions, the acceleration is speeding up more in the Arctic
than anywhere else on Earth, due to numerous feedbacks and
tipping points, including:
• Albedo loss goes hand in hand with decline of the snow and ice
cover. Albedo is a measure of reflectivity of the surface.
Albedo is higher as more sunlight is reflected back upward and
less energy is getting absorbed at the surface. Albedo decline
can occur as snow and ice disappears and the underlying darker
soil and rock becomes exposed. Even when the snow and ice cover
remains extensive, its reflectivity can decline, due to cracks
and holes in the ice, due to formation of melt ponds on top of
the ice and due to changes in texture (melting snow and ice
reflects less light). Calving of the ice can take place where
warmer water can reach it, and such calving can increase as
storms strengthen and waves get larger.
• Furthermore, albedo loss can occur as dust, soot and organic
compounds that are caused by human activities get deposited on
the snow and ice cover, reducing the reflectivity of the
surface. Organic compounds and nutrients in meltwater pools can
lead to rapid growth of algae, especially at times of high
insolation.
• Latent heat loss. As sea ice gets thinner, ever less ocean
heat gets consumed in the process of melting the subsurface ice,
to the point where - as long as air temperatures are still low
enough - there still is a thin layer of ice at the surface that
will still consume some heat below the surface, but that at the
same time acts as a seal, preventing heat from the Arctic Ocean
to enter the atmosphere.
• Jet Stream changes can further amplify the temperature rise.
As the temperature difference between the North Pole and the
Equator narrows, the Jet Stream becomes more wavy, spreading out
widely at times. The changes to the jet stream cause more
extreme weather, including heatwaves, forest fires, storms,
flooding, etc. This can cause more aerosols to get deposited on
the snow and ice cover. It can also speed up the flow of warm
water into the Arctic Ocean.
Albedo loss, latent heat loss and changes to the jet stream can
dramatically amplify the temperature rise in the Arctic. The
temperature of the Arctic Ocean is rising accordingly, while
there are a number of developments that specifically speed up
the temperature rise of the water of the Arctic Ocean, as
discussed below.
Arctic Ocean heating up
The temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean is rising, due
to a number of events and developments:
[ from the insolation page ]
Solstice occurred on June 21, 2021. The Arctic is now receiving
huge amounts of sunlight (see image on the right, from the
insolation page).
Sea surface temperatures and temperatures on land are very high
in Siberia, Canada and Alaska. Strong winds can spread warm air
over the Arctic Ocean.
Arctic sea ice extent is low for the time of year, but at this
stage, there still is a lot of sea ice present (compared to
September). The sea ice acts as a seal, preventing ocean heat
from entering the atmosphere, resulting in more heat remaining
in the Arctic Ocean.
[ Lena River, Siberia ]
Warm water from rivers is flowing into the Arctic Ocean,
carrying further heat into the Arctic Ocean. Above image shows
that on June 23, 2021, sea surface temperatures were 22.3°C or
72.2°F at a spot where water from the Lena River flows into the
Arctic Ocean. The image on the right shows that at a nearby
location the sea surface temperature was 20°C or 36°F higher
than 1981-2011.
Warm water from the North Atlantic Ocean and the North Pacific
Ocean is flowing into the Arctic Ocean and the amount of ocean
heat flowing into the Arctic Ocean is rising each year.
As mentioned above, latent heat loss is contributing to the
rapid temperature rise in the Arctic. The remaining sea ice acts
as a buffer, consuming ocean heat from below. Sea ice is getting
thinner each year, so ever less ocean heat can get consumed in
the process of melting the sea ice from below.
Changes to the jet stream can also cause strong storms that can
dramatically speed up the amount of heat flowing into the Arctic
Ocean, as discussed at the Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
page.
The danger of the temperature rise of the Arctic Ocean
The danger of the temperature rise of the Arctic Ocean is that
it can cause destabilization of hydrates at its seafloor,
resulting in eruption of huge amounts of methane from hydrates
and from free gas underneath the hydrates.
[ The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ]
In conclusion, changes to the jet stream could cause a huge
temperature rise soon, while a 3°C rise could cause humans to go
extinct, which is a daunting prospect. Even so, the right thing
to do is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through
comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate
Plan.
#Post#: 517--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: July 1, 2021, 1:41 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Weather is topsy turvy everywhere as predicted.
As usual it always says these things will happen, when they are
already happening.
JOW
Link:
HTML https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/from-drying-rainforests-to-heavier-downpours-australia-s-climate-is-changing-20210630-p585lh.html
Text:
From drying rainforests to heavier downpours, Australia’s
climate is changing
Peter Hannam
By Peter Hannam
July 1, 2021 — 3.29pm
Australia’s tropical rainforests will dry out, marine and land
heatwaves will become more frequent and intense, and
thunderstorms will dump more rain and worsen floods as the globe
heats up.
These are among the many impacts from climate change that will
blight the nation further unless atmospheric levels of
greenhouse gases stabilise, according to the final report of the
federal government’s Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub.
’Hub research has shown a clear link between climate change
and worsening bushfire weather conditions over the past 70
years,” the centre’s final report finds.
’Hub research has shown a clear link between climate change and
worsening bushfire weather conditions over the past 70 years,”
the centre’s final report finds.CREDIT:NICK MOIR
The work of more than 100 researchers, to be expanded in a new
Climate Systems Hub that began operations on Thursday, made
advances across fields ranging from bushfire prediction to the
rapid identification of the role climate change rather than
natural variability plays in an extreme weather.
“It’s clear that climate change is already happening and having
impacts,” said David Karoly, the leader of the Earth Systems Hub
that ended its work on June 30. Hub achievements include the
“massively successful” improvements to the main ACCESS climate
model used by Australian governments and agencies to hone future
predictions to a smaller scale than before, he said.
Ancient Gondwanan rainforests in Queensland and NSW, which get
as much as 40 per cent of their moisture from being shrouded in
clouds, face a drier and hotter future with climate change.
Ancient Gondwanan rainforests in Queensland and NSW, which get
as much as 40 per cent of their moisture from being shrouded in
clouds, face a drier and hotter future with climate
change.CREDIT:BRIAN CASSEY
The final report said there was “a clear link between climate
change and worsening bushfire weather conditions over the past
70 years”, and singled out the World Heritage-listed Gondwana
Rainforests as one area of concern.
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The forests, which stretch from north of Newcastle in NSW up to
southern Queensland, were hard hit by the 2019-20 Black Summer
bushfires and are likely to become drier as clouds and fog that
provide as much as 40 per cent of moisture rise in a warmer
climate.
“Higher cloud height, especially during the dry season, could
lead to a dry climate that is beyond the tolerance of some
species, resulting in rainforest community changes,” the report
found, adding “even moderate increases in cloud height were
found to have significant implications for cloud-water dependent
species”.
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Professor Karoly said that, while the lineage of the forests
dates back many millions of years, changes were underway in a
matter of a hundred years, far faster than species could adapt.
Similarly rapid changes were underway in the oceans around
Australia although their remoteness from most people’s
experiences meant they were not well known.
The Tasman Sea is warming at four times the global average,
placing at risk giant kelp forests off the Tasmanian coast.
The Tasman Sea is warming at four times the global average,
placing at risk giant kelp forests off the Tasmanian
coast.CREDIT:CRAIG SANDERSON
The Tasman Sea, for instance, is warming four times faster than
the global average in part because the East Australian Current
is strengthening and dragging tropical water much further south.
Key ecosystems, such as the giant kelp forests off Tasmania, are
at risk from more frequent heatwaves.
“A marine heatwave [in the Tasman Sea] similar in intensity to
those in 2015–16 and 2017–18 is currently expected to occur
approximately once every 20 years,” the report said. “Under [a
global] low-emissions scenario, it is expected to occur once
every 15 years by the end of the century, and under the
high-emissions scenario, a marine heatwave is projected to occur
almost every year.”
Thunderstorms were another area of interest, including how the
number of danger so-called “pyrocumulonimbus” clouds formed out
of bushfire plumes.
At least 35 of them were detected during Black Summer,
increasing the risk of erratic winds on unpredictable fire
behaviour and ignite new blazes ahead of the fire front, the
report noted.
East coast lows, another big weather event affecting coastal
areas from Queensland to Victoria, were among phenomenon
undergoing change. The Hub developed new ways to analyse the
complex storms and found the most extreme rainfall near eastern
Australia was frequently caused by such low-pressure systems
combining with a front and a thunderstorm.
The researchers found short-duration events produced by
thunderstorms could potentially increase in intensity by about
15 per cent per degree of global warming.
A line of storms associated with an east coast low sweeping over
the Hawkesbury River north of Sydney in July 2020.
A line of storms associated with an east coast low sweeping over
the Hawkesbury River north of Sydney in July 2020.CREDIT:NICK
MOIR
Andy Pitman, head of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate
Extremes and a Hub advisor, said east coast lows were “one of
the least effectively studied phenomena in Australia” even
though their impacts can be huge in terms of floods, storm
surges and wind damage.
“I worry about how ill-prepared we are for any climate signal
for east coast lows,” he said.
At the other end of the weather spectrum was so-called flash
droughts, another of the Hub’s research areas. These are
triggered by lower-than-average rainfall, accompanied by
abnormally high temperatures, a dry atmosphere, clear skies and
more sunshine, and can be perilous for crops.
Drone vision of Lake Burrendong in the central-west region of
NSW in January 2020 when water levels fell to a couple of per
cent of capacity.CREDIT:NICK MOIR
The researchers showed the sudden dry spells could be forecast,
and they can happen even in winter.
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The outgoing Hub cost $23.4 million, with matching contributions
from CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology and five universities
including the University of Melbourne and the University of NSW.
Its successor has been allocated federal funding of $38 million
over six years.
While welcomed, “we are not investing remotely enough given the
scale of the risk”, Professor Pitman said, adding the new
funding was “not even one year’s salary of a top soccer player”.
Simon Marsland, a CSIRO senior scientist who will lead the new
Climate Systems Hub, said how communities could adapt to the
warming impacts still to come will be one priority as will
efforts to work closely with Indigenous populations that are
often particularly exposed to extreme weather.
Dr Marsland noted the current record-shattering heatwave in
Canada, with near 50-degree temperatures recorded even at a
latitude as far as 50 degrees north, were “a good reminder that
climate change is here now and not something in the far future”.
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#Post#: 518--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: K-Dog Date: July 1, 2021, 2:37 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[spoiler][quote author=BuddyJ link=topic=14.msg513#msg513
date=1624920852]
[quote author=K-Dog link=topic=14.msg510#msg510 date=1624852771]
It is going to be over 43 degrees C tomorrow in Seattle. I
might smoke from spontaneous combustion. Change is coming a bit
faster than anyone thought.
[/quote]
Nah. Guy claimed that the BOE in 2018 would cause us all to die.
Here it is 3 years later and we're just a bit warmer. Some more
than others, of course.
HTML https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E4q8hEwXIAAW2qI.jpg
[/quote][/spoiler]
You are right. But I never thought Guy was right to begin with.
I started out thinking Guy was at least harmless and made
people think. Then I found out most people are stupid and take
him at face value. A that moment I realized Guy is incredibly
dangerous.
#Post#: 519--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: July 1, 2021, 2:14 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Just read a report of somewhere in Canadq getting 49 degrees c.
1221 F.
Is this correct or a typo?
Thats off the charts and very disturbing if accurate..
JOW
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