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#Post#: 393--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Phil Potts Date: May 24, 2021, 7:06 pm
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[quote author=Digwe Must link=topic=14.msg391#msg391
date=1621884970]
Now I have to go shovel some real sh*t.
[/quote]
Suppose someone at Walmart steals a 98c candy bar, while you
fill a shopping trolley with 50 assorted items, all priced 98c,
$1.98, $4.98, etc and the supermarket rounds each one off to the
nearest 5c individually. Our opinions on this is what Walmart
still stole overall, 2c.
JMG loves being a minor celebrity, some people may not like that
and expect greater humility, too bad. He has provided tons of
free material.
I've explained why I believe his catabolic collapse thesis is
only correct re consumer culture standard of living but not to a
point of starvation and not applying to govt apparatus, so wrong
overall. I won't make the whole argument all over again. I'm
still happy to have his take and not going to hate him for
having a different opinion.
I have the same rule as you across social media, in fact this is
the only place Im not using my real name. One, don't say
anything I wouldn't say to someone face and six, don't say
anything out of pure meanness, only for the point of teaching
something.
#Post#: 394--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: K-Dog Date: May 25, 2021, 12:43 am
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[quote]I've explained why I believe his catabolic collapse
thesis is only correct re consumer culture standard of living
but not to a point of starvation and not applying to govt
apparatus[/quote]
I get from this you think gentle contraction in the form of
non-essentials is possible (consumer items) but essentials of
life can't enjoy a gradual contraction(starvation). I'm not
sure what you mean by government apparatus.
By choice government wants to grow but governments are also
replaced. Sometimes with replacements being of inferior
capability.
I think with population as big as it is now a catabolic collapse
can't happen. There will be a point where available energy
supplies can't move food to where it is needed. Then all hell
will break loose. Climate change will soon make trade of food a
critical necessity for peace or local food shortages will lead
to starvation and armed conflict.
We went into overshoot and built complex systems which require
huge energy inputs. Life depends on these complex systems
working because the only way current technology can feed
everybody is with these complex systems working. The complex
systems can't be shrunk. All they can do is break.
#Post#: 395--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: K-Dog Date: May 25, 2021, 1:03 am
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[quote]the first time he proclaimed the end was nigh, and in
that time imagine what would have happened if people had
listened to him? They wouldn't have become doctors and saved
people, they wouldn't have started families and discovered the
wonders of children, they wouldn't have bought that Corvette and
enjoyed the feeling of being Mario Andretti on an interstate
on-ramp, and so on and so forth.[/quote]
Exactly right. A few generations ago people did not live near
as long as they do now. A temporary state of affairs perhaps,
but for now it is true. When people only lived to 45 on average
they did not scream life is a **** sandwich, what is the point
of going on. No, they made the best out of what they had been
given and enjoyed life as much as they could. People thought
every day you were alive was a gift and thanking god for the
opportunity to live another day was normal. Life in a Star Trek
universe was not taken for granted, expected, or even known
about. Death is the way of all flesh. That was known and it
did not stop people from living.
#Post#: 396--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: K-Dog Date: May 25, 2021, 1:26 am
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[quote] I will say to KDog that I'm not really comfortable
ascribing motives to JMG. I often disagree with him - but
respect his mind and viewpoint. I don't think he needs a novel
theory of collapse to be considered different. That takes care
of itself. I have his book "The Long Descent" from 2008. It's
held up fairly well. [/quote]
All right, lets forget about motives and agree that the JMG is a
true blue golden child. Motives unquestioned.
The fact remains he is a self proclaimed druid who gives
spiritual advice to a flock in which he is the shepherd. He
wears an ankle length dress with a belt of dyed rope. He wears
a medieval turban or headgear of some kind from the middle ages.
He claims much esoteric wisdom.
So no, he does not need a novel theory of collapse to be
considered different. Being different is what he is. It is his
stock and trade.
#Post#: 397--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: May 25, 2021, 8:24 pm
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Ice is retreating.
Its not a good sign.
I think we have screwed the pooch. To me its just an argument
over timing for when the pooch screws back.
JOW
Link:
HTML https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/233/2021/
Partial Text only. Its a pretty big article with lots of graphs:
Abstract
We combine satellite observations and numerical models to show
that Earth lost 28 trillion tonnes of ice between 1994 and 2017.
Arctic sea ice (7.6 trillion tonnes), Antarctic ice shelves (6.5
trillion tonnes), mountain glaciers (6.1 trillion tonnes), the
Greenland ice sheet (3.8 trillion tonnes), the Antarctic ice
sheet (2.5 trillion tonnes), and Southern Ocean sea ice (0.9
trillion tonnes) have all decreased in mass. Just over half
(58 %) of the ice loss was from the Northern Hemisphere,
and the remainder (42 %) was from the Southern Hemisphere.
The rate of ice loss has risen by 57 % since the 1990s –
from 0.8 to 1.2 trillion tonnes per year – owing to increased
losses from mountain glaciers, Antarctica, Greenland and from
Antarctic ice shelves. During the same period, the loss of
grounded ice from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and
mountain glaciers raised the global sea level by
34.6 ± 3.1 mm. The majority of all ice losses
were driven by atmospheric melting (68 % from Arctic sea
ice, mountain glaciers ice shelf calving and ice sheet surface
mass balance), with the remaining losses (32 % from ice
sheet discharge and ice shelf thinning) being driven by oceanic
melting. Altogether, these elements of the cryosphere have taken
up 3.2 % of the global energy imbalance.
#Post#: 399--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: May 26, 2021, 4:26 am
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Might be able to graze some cattle or sheep on once tundra, but
not going to feed the world from the ground up there. Cant see
you running heavy equipment in thawed tundra. Bogged a 4WD SAME
tractor in an old filled in dam once. Took a 200hp dozzer to get
it out. The whole north will be one big filled in dam!
My Agricultural Scientist son tells me the soils up above the
arctic circle will not be good for growing much for a long time
after it thaws... Wrong structure and poor nutrients he tells
me. Also something about reduced photosynthesis efficiency at
high latitudes due to reduced light.. (I am an engineer not a
Agronomist).
Everything says less people to me.... Like I said, its just
timing thats up for grabs. I am seeing it pretty short term
before it all turns to shit. Maybe 5 to 10 years..
Ice free arctic in next 2 or 3 years. Crop failures in 2 or 3
years after that. Famine, conflict and mass migration 2 to 3
years after that.
I hope I am wrong.
JOW
#Post#: 412--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: May 27, 2021, 9:45 pm
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HTML https://news.mongabay.com/2021/03/as-arctic-sea-ice-hits-annual-maximum-concern-grows-over-polar-ice-loss-studies/
Interesting reading.
JOW
#Post#: 424--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: May 30, 2021, 3:56 am
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We are punching above our weight down here in Shitsville for do
our bit to fuck up the iosphere.
JOW
Link:
HTML https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
Methane and the mass extinction of species
by Andrew Glikson
“The smart way to keep people passive and obedient is to
strictly limit the spectrum of acceptable opinion, but allow
very lively debate within that spectrum.” Noam Chomsky (1998).
The level of atmospheric methane, a poisonous gas considered
responsible for major mass extinction events in the past, has
nearly tripled during the 20-21st centuries, from ~722 ppb
(parts per billion) to above ~1866 ppb, currently reinforced by
coal seam gas (CSG) emissions. As the concentration of
atmospheric methane from thawing Arctic permafrost, from Arctic
sediments and from marshlands worldwide is rising, the
hydrocarbon industry, subsidized by governments, is
progressively enhancing global warming by extracting coal seam
gas in defiance of every international agreement.
Methane (CH₄), a powerful greenhouse gas ~80 times the
radiative power of carbon dioxide (CO₂) when fresh,
sourced in from anaerobic decomposition in wetlands, rice
fields, emission from animals, fermentation, animal waste,
biomass burning, charcoal combustion and anaerobic decomposition
of organic waste, is enriched by melting of leaking permafrost,
leaks from sediments of the continental shelf (Figure 1) and
extraction as coal seam gas (CSG). The addition to the
atmosphere of even a part of the estimated 1,400 billion tons of
carbon (GtC) from Arctic permafrost would destine the Earth to
temperatures higher than 4 degrees Celsius and thereby demise of
the biosphere life support systems.
During the last and present centuries, global methane
concentrations have risen from approximately ~700 parts per
billion (ppb) to near-1900 ppb, an increase by a factor of ~2.7,
the highest rate in the last 800,000 years.
Since the onset of the Industrial age global emissions of carbon
have reached near-600 billion tonnes of carbon (>2100 billion
tonnes CO₂) at a rate faster than during the demise of
dinosaurs. According to research published in Nature Geoscience,
CO₂ is being added to the atmosphere at least ten times
faster than during a major warming event about 55 million years
ago.
Australia, possessing an abundance of natural gas, namely
methane resources, is on track to become the world's largest
exporter. Leaks from hydraulic fracturing (fracking) production
wells, transport and residues of combustion are bound to
contribute significantly to atmospheric methane. However,
despite economic objections, not to mention accelerating global
warming, natural gas from coal seam gas, liquefied to -161°C, is
favored by the government for domestic use as well as exported
around the world.
In the Hunter Valley, NSW, release of methane from open-cut coal
mining reached above 3000 ppb. In the US methane released in
some coal seam gas fields constitutes between 2 and 17 per cent
of the emissions.
While natural gas typically emits between 50 and 60 percent less
CO₂ than coal when burned, the drilling and extraction of
natural gas from wells, fugitive emissions, leaks from
transportation in pipelines result in enrichment of the
atmosphere in methane, the main component of natural gas, 34
times stronger than CO₂ at trapping heat over a 100-year
period and 86 times stronger over 20 years. So, while natural
gas when burned emits less CO₂ than coal, that doesn’t
mean that it’s clean – the reason summed up in one word:
methane.
Global warming triggered by the massive release of CO₂ may
be catastrophic, but release of CH₄ from methane hydrates
may be apocalyptic. According to Brand et al. (2016), the
release of methane from permafrost and shelf sediment has
constituted the ultimate source and cause for the dramatic
life-changing global warming. The mass extinction at the end of
the Permian 251 million years ago, when 96 percent of species
was lost, holds an important lesson for humanity regarding
greenhouse gas emissions, global warming, and the life support
system of the planet (Brand et al. 2016, Methane Hydrate: Killer
cause of Earth's greatest mass extinction).
The pledge for zero-emissions by 2050 is questioned as
governments continue to subsidize, mine and export hydrocarbons.
Examples include Saudi-Arabia, the Gulf States, Russia, Norway
and Australia. A mostly compliant media highlights a
zero-emission pledge, but is reluctant to report the scale of
exported emissions as well as the ultimate consequences of the
open-ended rise of global temperatures.
Norway, a country committed to domestic clean energy, is
conducting large scale drilling for Atlantic and Arctic oil.
Australia, the fourth-largest producer of coal, with 6.9% of
global production, is the biggest net exporter, with 32% of
global exports in 2016. 23 new coal projects are proposed n the
Hunter Valley, NSW, with a production capacity equivalent to 15
Adani-sized mines.
Australian electricity generation is dominated by fossil fuel
and about 17% renewable energy. Fossil fuel subsidies hit $10.3
billion in 2020-21, about twice the investment in solar energy
in 2019-2020. State Governments spent $1.2 billion subsidizing
exploration, refurbishing coal ports, railways and power
stations and funding “clean coal” research, ignoring the pledge
for “zero emissions by 2050”.
The pledge overlooks the global amplifying effects of cumulative
greenhouse gases. At the current rate of emissions, atmospheric
CO₂ levels would be near 500 ppm CO₂ by 2050,
generating warming of the oceans (expelling CO₂),
decreased albedo due to melting of ice, release of methane,
desiccated vegetation and extensive fires.
Claims of “clean coal”, “clean gas” and “clean hydrogen” ignore
the contribution of these methods to the rise in greenhouse
gases. Coal seam gas has become an additional source of methane
which has an 80 times more powerful greenhouse effect than
CO₂. This adds to the methane leaked from Arctic
permafrost, with atmospheric methane rising from ~ 600 parts per
billion early last century to higher than 2000 ppb. In the
Hunter Valley, NSW, release of methane from open-cut coal mining
reached above 3000 ppb. In the US, methane released in some coal
seam gas fields constitutes between 2 and 17 per cent of the
emissions.
The critical index of global warming, rarely mentioned by
politicians or the media, is the atmospheric concentration of
CO₂. During 2020-2021 CO₂ rose from 416.45 to 419.05
parts per million at a rate of 2.6 ppm/year, a trend
unprecedented in the geological record of the last 55 million
years. The combined effects of greenhouse gases such as cabon
dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide
(N₂O) have reached near ~500 ppm CO2-equivalent.
Since 1880, the world has warmed by 1.09 degrees Celsius on
average, near ~1.5°C on the continents and ~2.2°C in the Arctic,
with the five warmest years on record during 2015-2020. Since
the 1980s, the wildfire season has lengthened across a quarter
of the world's vegetated surface. As extensive parts of Earth
are burning, “forever wars” keep looming.
It is not clear how tracking toward +4 degrees Celsius by the
end of the century can be arrested. A level of +4°C above
pre-industrial temperature endangers the very life support
systems of the planet. The geological record indicates past
global heating events on a scale and rate analogous to the
present have led to mass extinctions of species. According to
Professor Will Steffen, Australia’s top climate scientist “we
are already deep into the trajectory towards collapse”. While
many scientists are discouraged by the extreme rate of global
heating, it is left to a heroic young girl to warn the world of
the greatest calamity since a large asteroid impacted Earth some
66 million years ago.
Andrew Glikson
A/Prof. Andrew Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist
The University of New South Wales,
Kensington NSW 2052 Australia
#Post#: 430--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: K-Dog Date: May 31, 2021, 4:49 pm
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[quote]As a species are voting with our dollars and actions
every single day that we have no intention of changing our
behavior.[/quote]
[img]
HTML https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2F11points.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2019%2F02%2Fofficespace-miltonend.jpg&f=1&nofb=1[/img]
Everyone wants to eat the worm.
#Post#: 432--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Phil Potts Date: June 1, 2021, 5:42 am
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[quote author=K-Dog link=topic=14.msg430#msg430 date=1622497786]
[quote]As a species are voting with our dollars and actions
every single day that we have no intention of changing our
behavior.[/quote]
[img]
HTML https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2F11points.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2019%2F02%2Fofficespace-miltonend.jpg&f=1&nofb=1[/img]
Everyone wants to eat the worm.
[/quote]
chance for some air bnb bucks and charging for parking while
the convention is in town
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