DIR Return Create A Forum - Home
---------------------------------------------------------
Global Collapse
HTML https://globalcollapse.createaforum.com
---------------------------------------------------------
*****************************************************
DIR Return to: General Discussion
*****************************************************
#Post#: 372--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: RE Date: May 20, 2021, 9:27 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Digwe Must link=topic=14.msg368#msg368
date=1621554060]
RE At my age I found your calculation of how many women per
day a fertile man would be expected to "visit" to be a
terrifying prospect. Not exactly a fate worse than death - but
death would be the probable result. Thankfully an issue I won't
need to...probe...any further.
[/quote]
The closest equivalent you could get would be the male porn
stars of the 70s like John Holmes who relied on a variety of
drugs to be able to "perform" for the camera several times
during a shooting day. Imagine trying to do that day in and day
out, nearly endlessly. Add to the problem that not every one
would be a stunner like Genevieve or your favorite fantasy girl
from your sexual peak years. Imagine you have had a long day
and your last filly of the day to mount is Roseanne
Barr...AAACCCCKKK! lol.
The fantasy turned into nightmare reality was depicted in a the
cult classic Apocalypse film "A Boy & his Dog", where Don
Johnson ends up hooked to a machine that extracts his semen as
he is "married" to a succession of girls to refresh the genome
of Topeka, KS gone underground.
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzEOWIOnmpc
RE
#Post#: 378--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Digwe Must Date: May 22, 2021, 9:02 am
---------------------------------------------------------
A pretty good essay on Collapse by Tom Murphy. I saw this on
Resilience. org. It was originally published on Do The Math.
HTML https://www.resilience.org/stories/2021-05-19/why-worry-about-collapse/
#Post#: 384--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: May 23, 2021, 2:05 am
---------------------------------------------------------
A usually upbeat Paul Beckwith is starting to sound a bit
worried... Has a bit of an alarmisty headline.
Seems timelines are getting shorter not longer.
Me thinks we are right to be alarmed.
A Smorgasbord of Abrupt Climate System Disruption Science and
Dire Consequences to Humanity
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0mlZvG7Alw
JOW
#Post#: 385--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: K-Dog Date: May 23, 2021, 9:51 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[spoiler][quote author=John of Wallan
link=topic=14.msg384#msg384 date=1621753559]
A usually upbeat Paul Beckwith is starting to sound a bit
worried... Has a bit of an alarmisty headline.
Seems timelines are getting shorter not longer.
Me thinks we are right to be alarmed.
A Smorgasbord of Abrupt Climate System Disruption Science and
Dire Consequences to Humanity
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0mlZvG7Alw
JOW
[/quote]
[/spoiler]
Yeah, Paul should probably take a break from watching paint dry
for a while. Watching a pot of water waiting to boil might be a
better analogy than paint drying.
If the new 'findings' about Pacific Ocean water going through
the Bearing Straight creating 'heat bombs concerns' you but you
can't figure out the exact same bombs must have happened when
Nero was Caesar. you need a break.
Research has coming out saying heat bombs are lurking in the
Arctic depths sometimes for years and they can come up at any
time melting ice. A balance between high salinity and
temperature expansions making warm water sink.
I like Paul and think he has a good head on his shoulders. But
this idea of heat bombs coming up the Bearing Straight like a
monster from outer space to lurk in the depths is more
infectious than Covid. And a great waste of mental resources.
[img]
HTML https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.tenor.com%2Fimages%2F3bffc89b5c0c504fb13a1c416f8f0a30%2Ftenor.gif&f=1&nofb=1[/img]
I assume the Cali researchers contemplating heat bombs learned
how much energy it takes to melt ice at some point.
This is a situation where an accurate computer model would be
the only way to reveal if there could and not if, there be a
danger. You have to get a river of water flowing along a
shallow continental shelf with colder water coming back over on
top of it.
For 800 Kilometers with no prime mover.
[quote]
The Chukchi Sea bottom is the 700-kilometer-long (430 mi) Hope
Basin, which is bound to the northeast by the Herald Arch.
Depths less than 50 meters (160 ft) occupy 56% of the total
area.[/quote]
So much for lurking in the depths. Given that the temperature
and salinity differences are small and the area huge, math of
chaos theory says it is not going to happen. Development of
chaos theory benefited from the study of thermal convection,
which is interesting but not otherwise relevant.
I am not able to find evidence that there is significant current
through the Bearing Straight. I can't imagine a significant
physical process that could drive one.
#Post#: 386--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: May 24, 2021, 3:47 am
---------------------------------------------------------
I will fan the flames even more:
Link:
HTML https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
A lot of data and a few videos including one from the favorite
Guy.
JOW
#Post#: 387--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: May 24, 2021, 3:49 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Smoke them if you got them.
JOW
Text of previous link:
Arctic Ocean invaded by hot, salty water
Sea surface temperatures on the Northern Hemisphere have been
rising dramatically over the years, as illustrated by above
image, indicating that the latent heat tipping point is getting
crossed, while the methane hydrates tipping point could get
crossed soon, depending on developments.
At the moment, the surface temperature of most of the Arctic
ocean's is still below 0°C.
Heat is entering the Arctic Ocean from the south, as illustrated
by the image on the right. Hot, salty water is entering the
Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean as currents dive underneath
the ice, causing the ice to melt from below.
[ click on images to enlarge ]
The image on the right, from the NSIDC article A step in our
Spring, compares sea ice age between March 12 to 18 for the
years 1985 (a) and 2021 (b).
The bottom graph (c) shows a time series from 1985 to 2021 of
percent ice coverage of the Arctic Ocean domain. The Arctic
Ocean domain is depicted in the inset map with purple shading.
At the end of the ice growth season in mid-March, 73.3% of the
Arctic Ocean domain was covered by first-year ice, while 3.5%
was covered by ice 4+ years old.
This compares to 70.6% and 4.4% respectively in March 2020.
In March 1985, near the beginning of the ice age record, the
Arctic Ocean region was comprised of nearly equal amounts of
first-year ice (39.3%) and 4+ year-old ice (30.6%).
Sea ice that hasn't yet survived a summer melt season is
referred to as first-year ice. This thin, new ice is vulnerable
to melt and disintegration in stormy conditions. Ice that
survives a summer melt season can grow thicker and less salty,
since snow that thickens the ice contains little salt. Thickness
and salt content determine the resistance of the ice to melt.
Multiyear ice is more likely to survive temperatures that would
melt first-year ice, and to survive waves and winds that would
break up first-year ice.
The image on the right shows a forecast of the thickness of the
sea ice, run on May 20, 2021 and valid for May 21, 2021.
An area is visible north of Severnaya Zemlya toward the North
Pole where thickness is getting very thin, while there is one
spot where the ice has virtually disappeared.
The spot is likely a melting iceberg, the animation on the right
shows that the spot has been there for quite a few days, while
the freshwater in this spot appears to result from melting amid
salty water.
Overall, sea ice is getting very thin, indicating that the
buffer constituted by the sea ice underneath the surface is
almost gone, meaning that further heat entering the Arctic Ocean
will strongly heat up the water.
As the animation underneath on the right shows, freshwater is
entering the Arctic Ocean due to runoff from land, i.e.
rainwater from rivers, meltwater from glaciers and groundwater
runoff from thawing permafrost.
At the same time, very salty water is entering the Arctic Ocean
from the Atlantic Ocean.
The map below shows how salty and hot water from the Atlantic
Ocean enters the Arctic Ocean along two currents, flowing on
each side of Svalbard, and meeting at this area north of
Severnaya Zemlya where thickness is getting very low.
The blue color on the map indicates depth (see scale
underneath).
The image below, by Malcolm Light and based on Max & Lowrie
(1993), from a recent post, shows vulnerable Arctic Ocean slope
and deep water methane hydrates zones below 300 m depth.
Malcolm Light indicates three areas:
Area 1. Methane hydrates on the slope;
Area 2. Methane hydrates on the abyssal plane;
Area 3. Methane hydrates associated with the spreading Gakkel
Ridge hydro-thermal activity (the Gakkel Riidge runs in between
the northern tip of Greenland and the Laptev Sea).
The freezing point of freshwater is 0°C or 32°F. For salty
water, the freezing point is -2°C or 28.4°F.
During April 2021, sea ice was about 160 cm thick.
In June and July 2021, thickness will fall rapidly, as
illustrated by the image on the right by Nico Sun.
Sea ice acts as a buffer, by consuming energy in the process of
melting, thus avoiding that this energy causes a temperature
rise of the water.
As long as there is sea ice in the water, this sea ice will keep
absorbing heat as it melts, so the temperature will not rise at
the sea surface and remain at zero°C. The amount of energy that
is consumed in the process of melting the ice is as much as it
takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero°C to 80°C.
The accumulated ice melt energy until now is the highest on
record, as illustrated by the image on the right, by Nico Sun.
The image below further illustrate the danger. As the
temperature of the water keeps rising, more heat will reach
sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean that contain vast
amounts of methane, as discussed at this page and in this post.
Ominously, methane levels reached a peak of 2901 ppb at 469 mb
on May 13, 2021.
In the extract of a 2008 paper, Natalia Shakhova et al.
conclude:
". . we consider release of up to 50 Gt of predicted amount of
hydrate storage as highly possible for abrupt release at any
time."
The video below contains excerpts from Nick Breeze's interview
with Natalia Shakhova at the European Geophysical Union in
Vienna, 2012, on the likelihood and timeframe of a large methane
release from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.
Natalia Shakhova: "The total amount of methane in the atmosphere
is about 5Gt. The amount of carbon in the form of methane in
this Arctic shelf is - approximately - from hundreds to
thousands Gt and, of course, only 1% of [such an] amount is
required to double the atmospheric burden of methane."
"But to destabilize 1% of this carbon pool, I think, not much
effort is needed, considering the state of the permafrost and
the amount of methane involved, because what divides the methane
from the atmosphere is a very shallow water column and the
weakening permafrost, which is losing its ability to seal, to
serve as a seal, and this is, I think, not a matter of thousands
of years, it's a matter of decades, at most hundred years."
(Natalia talks with Igor Semiletov)
Natalia Shakhova: "Just because this area is seismically and
tectonically active, and there was some investigation that the
tectonic activity was increasing, and the seismic activity, the
destabiliation of the ground, just mechanical forcing
destabiliation [may suffice to act as] additional pathway for
this methane to escape. There are many factors that are very
convincing for us [to conclude] that it might happen."
Elaborating on the timeframe.
Natalia Shakhova: "Not any time, any time sounds like it might
happen today, it might happen tomorrow, the day after tomorrow .
. "
Igor Simelitov: "It might!"
In the video below, Peter Wadhams analyses the threat of Arctic
methane releases.
The video below Nick Breee interviews Igor Semiletov on methane
plumes detected during 2020 field research over the East
Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS).
In the video below, Guy McPherson discusses the situation.
In conclusion, temperatures could rise dramatically soon. A 3°C
will likely suffice for humans to go extinct, making it in many
respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen in
the longer term. On the other hand, the right thing to do is to
help avoid the worst things from happening, through
comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate
Plan.
Links
• NOAA Climate at a Glance
HTML https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series/nhem/ocean/ann/4/1997-2020
• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic temperature
HTML http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
• Freezing point of water - Climate Change: Arctic sea ice
HTML https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent
• Arctic surface temperature
HTML http://ocean.dmi.dk/anim/index.uk.php
• NSIDC: A step in our Spring, image credit: T. Tschudi,
University of Colorado, and W. Meier and J.S. Stewart, National
Snow and Ice Data Center/Image by W. Meier
HTML https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2021/05/a-step-in-our-spring
• Arctic sea ice - thickness and salinity - navy.mil
HTML https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html
• CryosphereComputing - by Nico Sun
HTML https://cryospherecomputing.tk
• A 4.5 km resolution Arctic Ocean simulation with the global
multi-resolution model FESOM 1.4 - by Qiang Wang et al.
HTML https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/11/1229/2018/
• Max, M.D. & Lowrie, A. 1993. Natural gas hydrates: Arctic and
Nordic Sea potential. In: Vorren, T.O., Bergsager, E.,
Dahl-Stamnes, A., Holter, E., Johansen, B., Lie, E. & Lund, T.B.
Arctic Geology and Petroleum Potential, Proceedings of the
Norwegian Petroleum Society Conference, 15-17 August 1990,
Tromso, Norway. Norwegian Petroleum Society (NPF), Special
Publication 2 Elsevier, Amsterdam, 27-53.
HTML https://www.elsevier.com/books/arctic-geology-and-petroleum-potential/vorren/978-0-444-88943-0
• Extinction by 2027- by Malcolm Light
HTML https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/05/extinction-by-2027.html
• MetOp satellite - methane
HTML https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi
• Anomalies of methane in the atmosphere over the East Siberian
shelf: Is there any sign of methane leakage from shallow shelf
hydrates? - by Shakhova, Semiletov, Salyuk and Kosmach (2008)
HTML https://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU2008/01526/EGU2008-A-01526.pdf
• The Threat
HTML https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/threat.html
• When will we die?
HTML https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html
• A rise of 18°C or 32.4°F by 2026?
HTML https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/02/a-rise-of-18c-or-324f-by-2026.html
• Most Important Message Ever
HTML https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/07/most-important-message-ever.html
• Climate Plan
HTML https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
#Post#: 388--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: K-Dog Date: May 24, 2021, 9:09 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote]I will say to KDog that I'm not really comfortable
ascribing motives to JMG. I often disagree with him - but
respect his mind and viewpoint. I don't think he needs a novel
theory of collapse to be considered different. That takes care
of itself. I have his book "The Long Descent" from 2008. It's
held up fairly well. [/quote]
JMG was in the Seattle area before he went east. He hammed as
much time as he could on our local news.
I have been following JMG for thirty years and the only doomers
who have followed him that long are right here in Seattle with
me or were. I have also had personal interaction with JMG.
I damn well will ascribe motives to him if I want to.
AND:
Among the doom gurus he is the one I respect the most.
I am K-Dog true. But I am not anonymous and am easily
contacted. If I ascribe motives to anyone and they have a
problem with me. They can be in my face about it easy enough.
I am not hiding.
#Post#: 389--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Digwe Must Date: May 24, 2021, 9:49 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Mr Kdog
Just a quick point. I did not say YOU should not ascribe
motives to JMG. Sorry if I wasn't clear. I said I was not
comfortable doing so - even though I have also had a few
personal interactions with the guy. You can, of course, "damn
well" say anything you want. I was referring to my own
viewpoint. The rest of that brief statement of mine that you
quoted stands.
Who is accusing you of hiding? Where did you get that from my
statement?
Did you wake up this morning and decide to pick a fight? Or, do
you just want this forum for those who agree only with you? If
so, let me know and I will not darken your door again.
#Post#: 390--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: K-Dog Date: May 24, 2021, 12:31 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote]I did not say YOU should not ascribe motives to
JMG.[/quote]
Thank you for being clear. I don't mind emphasizing the point.
* Anonymous people can say things which make them trolls. If a
person can be identified they place themselves open for rebuttal
and that changes the equation. So real people can say critical
things without being a troll. Hence my reference to not hiding.
#Post#: 391--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Digwe Must Date: May 24, 2021, 2:36 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
This is the last remark I will make on this subject as I don't
think it can be of much interest to most of the folks who opine
here.
"If I ascribe motives to anyone and they have a problem with me.
They can be in my face about it easy enough.
No they can't. You are insulated by technology from actually
facing anyone. In my own opinion it doesn't take guts or
integrity to insult people online. Perhaps not being anonymous
has some virtue, but you are still not looking the person in the
eye.
Because I am damn near computer illiterate I found a simple rule
to be much easier for me to follow than trying to parse some
subtleties of online etiquette. When online I don't say
anything to, or about, anyone that I wouldn't say to their face,
in person. Easy. Simple. Old fashioned. Having been in real
scuffles occasionally through my life I simply do not see the
courage or integrity in insulting people from thousands of miles
away. I better be careful here. Someone might send me a
mean-faced emoji. The horror.
Now I have to go shovel some real sh*t. We're finally getting a
little rain. Thank God.
I may visit with you all again. I may not. I wish you all
well.
*****************************************************
DIR Previous Page
DIR Next Page