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#Post#: 139--------------------------------------------------
Climate Doom
By: K-Dog Date: April 26, 2021, 2:36 pm
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HTML https://youtu.be/DTt31p3AWTc
The Methane Bomb.
If you finish the math (which Guy McPherson never does). You
find out that the Methane Bomb is going to aggravate the
situation. Enough that we likely nuke each other into oblivion.
[img]
HTML https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fdrkelley.info%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2001%2F11%2Fnuke_bomb__test_kelley.jpg&f=1&nofb=1[/img]
But we will NOT go Venus. Where the ground is so hot, lakes of
molten lead could exist.
Methane is going to super sauce global heating.
[img]
HTML https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.shopify.com%2Fs%2Ffiles%2F1%2F0043%2F9553%2F2386%2Fproducts%2FMega_Death_Hot_Sauce_1024x1024%402x.jpg%3Fv%3D1543646903&f=1&nofb=1[/img]
Adding 1 gigatonne of methane to the atmosphere increases
atmospheric concentration of methane by 370 parts per billion
(ppb). Multiply that number by 100 for a guestimate of immediate
effects comparable to CO2 emissions. (The 20-year GWP value of
86 is not immediate enough.) This multiplication gives 37,000
ppb which is the same as 37 parts per million (ppm)). This about
equals 10 years worth of CO2 emissions at the present CO2
emission level. You can get data for a year of CO2 emissions
increase in my right sidebar. I update it every month. It only
goes up. One gigatonne of methane emissions is very bad news. To
find the relationship I had to find out the volume of the
Earths' atmosphere at Standard Temperature and Pressure (STP).
That volume is 4.2 x 10^9 kilometer^3.
And if anybody quotes this for DOGS SAKE! USE A SPOILER TAG.
like this: [spoiler]{spoiler} content goes here {/spoiler}
replace the { } with [ ]. I could not do that and show you or
it would be a spoiler tag inside a spoiler tag. This is easy to
do. Just wrap what you are quoting in the tags.[/spoiler]
#Post#: 141--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Cam Date: April 26, 2021, 6:30 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[spoiler][quote author=K-Dog link=topic=14.msg139#msg139
date=1619465806]
The Methane Bomb.
If you finish the math (which Guy McPherson never does). You
find out that the Methane Bomb is going to aggravate the
situation. Enough that we likely nuke each other into oblivion.
[/quote][/spoiler]
I'm curious what you mean when you say McPherson doesn't do the
math. I haven't visited his site in over a year so I am behind
on any new stuff. Also I hope I did the spoiler right!
#Post#: 143--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: K-Dog Date: April 26, 2021, 6:55 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[spoiler][quote author=Cam link=topic=14.msg141#msg141
date=1619479845]
[quote author=K-Dog link=topic=14.msg139#msg139 date=1619465806]
The Methane Bomb.
If you finish the math (which Guy McPherson never does). You
find out that the Methane Bomb is going to aggravate the
situation. Enough that we likely nuke each other into oblivion.
[/quote]
I'm curious what you mean when you say McPherson doesn't do the
math. I haven't visited his site in over a year so I am behind
on any new stuff. Also I hope I did the spoiler right!
[/quote]
[/spoiler]
Oh yes the spoiler worked out great.
The only math McPherson knows is binary. If there is a problem
we are all going to die. That is his attitude. He jumps to
conclusions.
[img]
HTML https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fimages-na.ssl-images-amazon.com%2Fimages%2FI%2F91EDI7zrnHL._SX466_.jpg&f=1&nofb=1[/img]<br
/>
McPherson has been responsible for spreading a lot of
misinformation about feedback. He wins blind obedient worship
or he turns people off. Both responses do nothing to address
the global heating problem in a responsible way.
I don’t like the tipping point concept as it does not describe
the issue of feedback well enough. The fact is global heating
causes changes which cause more heating, yes. An AMPLIFICATION
which happens all the time in a continuous process and not just
when a ‘point’ is reached. It also suggests a runaway situation
as the only option. That is not correct. Possibilities are more
complex. Non-linearity introduces a concept of tipping point;
but overall the notion makes people passive, defeated, and then
they stop thinking. They start ragging on everybody else and
become ineffective. McPherson gives people the Dunning-Kruger
disease. Realistically the earth is big which dilutes the
effect of any single alleged tipping point. Properly
appreciating that fact makes responsibility hard to dodge and
not the other way around as it at first, seems.
If all the methane from the Arctic shelf were release at once we
would be toast. But the world does not work that way. It can't
happen like that and even if all the methane were released the
Earth would still not go Venus. The human race would only be
extinct and things would get back into an ice age cycle. In
time there would be large critters again.
I don't recall McPherson walking to Belize. Apparently he has
more than just love left after all. He has plane tickets.
People who profit from fear do not play on my team.
#Post#: 144--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: K-Dog Date: April 26, 2021, 7:47 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[spoiler][quote author=BuddyJ link=topic=14.msg142#msg142
date=1619480979]
[quote author=Cam link=topic=14.msg141#msg141 date=1619479845]
[quote author=K-Dog link=topic=14.msg139#msg139 date=1619465806]
The Methane Bomb.
If you finish the math (which Guy McPherson never does). You
find out that the Methane Bomb is going to aggravate the
situation. Enough that we likely nuke each other into oblivion.
[/quote]
I'm curious what you mean when you say McPherson doesn't do the
math. I haven't visited his site in over a year so I am behind
on any new stuff. Also I hope I did the spoiler right!
[/quote]
He does quite a bit on Facebook. Does regular Zoom meetings now
that he has moved to Vermont with what's her name. Opened up
another Facebook page as well, Earth Hospice or something like
that.
[/quote][/spoiler]
Thanks, I found it.
HTML https://guymcpherson.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Planetary-Hospice.pdf
It starts with a quote.
[quote]“Truly the blessed gods have proclaimed a most beautiful
secret:death comes not as a curse but as a blessing to
men.”[/quote]
- Ancient Greek Epitaph from Eleusis
Attributing this to the ancient Greeks makes this poison
palatable. I don't deny it works. It makes this bullshit pass
for wisdom. But lets be clear on this. This is 100% bullshit.
There is nothing about that quote that is wise.
The quote epitomizes McPhersons' attitude and my objection to
his charlatanism.
#Post#: 145--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Cam Date: April 26, 2021, 8:56 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[spoiler][quote author=K-Dog link=topic=14.msg143#msg143
date=1619481324]
[quote author=Cam link=topic=14.msg141#msg141 date=1619479845]
[quote author=K-Dog link=topic=14.msg139#msg139 date=1619465806]
The Methane Bomb.
If you finish the math (which Guy McPherson never does). You
find out that the Methane Bomb is going to aggravate the
situation. Enough that we likely nuke each other into oblivion.
[/quote]
I'm curious what you mean when you say McPherson doesn't do the
math. I haven't visited his site in over a year so I am behind
on any new stuff. Also I hope I did the spoiler right!
[/quote]
Oh yes the spoiler worked out great.
The only math McPherson knows is binary. If there is a problem
we are all going to die. That is his attitude. He jumps to
conclusions.
[img]
HTML https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fimages-na.ssl-images-amazon.com%2Fimages%2FI%2F91EDI7zrnHL._SX466_.jpg&f=1&nofb=1[/img]<br
/>
McPherson has been responsible for spreading a lot of
misinformation about feedback. He wins blind obedient worship
or he turns people off. Both responses do nothing to address
the global heating problem in a responsible way.
I don’t like the tipping point concept as it does not describe
the issue of feedback well enough. The fact is global heating
causes changes which cause more heating, yes. An AMPLIFICATION
which happens all the time in a continuous process and not just
when a ‘point’ is reached. It also suggests a runaway situation
as the only option. That is not correct. Possibilities are more
complex. Non-linearity introduces a concept of tipping point;
but overall the notion makes people passive, defeated, and then
they stop thinking. They start ragging on everybody else and
become ineffective. McPherson gives people the Dunning-Kruger
disease. Realistically the earth is big which dilutes the
effect of any single alleged tipping point. Properly
appreciating that fact makes responsibility hard to dodge and
not the other way around as it at first, seems.
If all the methane from the Arctic shelf were release at once we
would be toast. But the world does not work that way. It can't
happen like that and even if all the methane were released the
Earth would still not go Venus. The human race would only be
extinct and things would get back into an ice age cycle. In
time there would be large critters again.
I don't recall McPherson walking to Belize. Apparently he has
more than just love left after all. He has plane tickets.
People who profit from fear do not play on my team.
[/quote] [/spoiler]
It's always more complex than it seems at first glance. I'm
finding this out about just about every hot-button issue of the
day. Thanks for the explanation.
#Post#: 147--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: K-Dog Date: April 26, 2021, 11:54 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[spoiler][quote author=BuddyJ link=topic=14.msg146#msg146
date=1619491710]
[quote author=K-Dog link=topic=14.msg143#msg143 date=1619481324]
I don't recall McPherson walking to Belize. Apparently he has
more than just love left after all. He has plane tickets.
People who profit from fear do not play on my team.
[/quote]
I believe he drove a U-Haul to Vermont. I don't recall him ever
complaining about using fossil fuels.
[/quote][/spoiler]
[quote]I believe he drove a U-Haul to Vermont. I don't recall
him ever complaining about using fossil fuels.[/quote]
When only love remains you can do whatever you want.
#Post#: 150--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: RE Date: April 27, 2021, 7:50 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=K-Dog link=topic=14.msg147#msg147 date=1619499253]
When only love remains you can do whatever you want.
[/quote]
I have never been convinced that love actually does remain.
RE
#Post#: 152--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: Blade of Grass Date: April 27, 2021, 8:17 am
---------------------------------------------------------
"I don't believe in all that climate warming alarm talk because
I LOVE the planet just the way it is."
"If you LOVED me you would do what I want you to."
"If were gonna die anyway let's just spread LOVE to everyone."
"I LOVE heroin."
"I LOVE you so much I would do anything for you."
"I LOVE God and so His will be done."
"I LOVE to watch things fall apart and die. That's why I Love
Doom."
IT seems like the word "Love" can be used in most any sentence
and in any context.
#Post#: 154--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom - The Time Lag
By: Blade of Grass Date: April 27, 2021, 8:55 am
---------------------------------------------------------
There is a time lag between cause and effect in our climate, and
the ecological and socio-economic systems that depend on it.
Thus, some of the impacts of human activity on climate change
may be slow to become apparent, meaning we could cross some
irreversible thresholds before we know it.
That isn’t to say that climate change is unavoidable, whether we
cut emissions or not. Studies have shown that the time between a
pulse of greenhouse gas (GHG) and most of its warming is around
a decade. Thus, we will experience the full effect of today’s
emissions in 10 to 20 years time, but we can still avoid the
worst of it.
HTML https://u4d2z7k9.rocketcdn.me/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/TimelagCO2.jpg
What if emissions stopped today?
Would we return to the pre-industrial climate?
Unfortunately, the time lag works both ways, so no. We’ve
accumulated enough GHGs in the atmosphere to keep trapping heat
for some time, leading to the release of more GHGs like methane
in the Arctic circle. Atmospheric CO2 levels would drop, but
sinks like our ocean surface are saturating, and sediment uptake
is slow.
Thus it is essential for us to combine emission mitigation with
adaptation strategies, using our best estimates of future
climates to create sustainable practices.
Geoengineering remains an option, albeit a dangerous one. It
involves human tampering with the climate to reduce the effects
of climate change, such as dispersing particles in the air,
seeding clouds or using giant mirrors to reflect heat back into
space.
HTML https://u4d2z7k9.rocketcdn.me/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/GeoengineeringMethods-ClimateCentral_900_639_s_c1_c_c.jpg
The long term knock on effects of such methods are unknown and
rife with destructive potential too, so it is best to be wary.
The bottom line is we’ve already locked in a more difficult
future, which is all the more reason to take drastic
counter-measures now, even at an economical loss. It is
difficult to estimate, but the consequences of putting short
term benefits first will be far worse long-term loss.
References
Ricke, Katharine L., and Ken Caldeira. “Maximum warming
occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission.”
Environmental Research Letters 9.12 (2014): 124002.
Climate Central: Geoengineering methods.
HTML https://earth.org/data_visualization/the-time-lag-of-climate-change/
#Post#: 160--------------------------------------------------
Re: Climate Doom
By: John of Wallan Date: April 28, 2021, 6:00 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Blade of Grass link=topic=14.msg154#msg154
date=1619531736]
There is a time lag between cause and effect in our climate, and
the ecological and socio-economic systems that depend on it.
Thus, some of the impacts of human activity on climate change
may be slow to become apparent, meaning we could cross some
irreversible thresholds before we know it.
That isn’t to say that climate change is unavoidable, whether we
cut emissions or not. Studies have shown that the time between a
pulse of greenhouse gas (GHG) and most of its warming is around
a decade. Thus, we will experience the full effect of today’s
emissions in 10 to 20 years time, but we can still avoid the
worst of it.
HTML https://u4d2z7k9.rocketcdn.me/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/TimelagCO2.jpg
What if emissions stopped today?
Would we return to the pre-industrial climate?
Unfortunately, the time lag works both ways, so no. We’ve
accumulated enough GHGs in the atmosphere to keep trapping heat
for some time, leading to the release of more GHGs like methane
in the Arctic circle. Atmospheric CO2 levels would drop, but
sinks like our ocean surface are saturating, and sediment uptake
is slow.
Thus it is essential for us to combine emission mitigation with
adaptation strategies, using our best estimates of future
climates to create sustainable practices.
Geoengineering remains an option, albeit a dangerous one. It
involves human tampering with the climate to reduce the effects
of climate change, such as dispersing particles in the air,
seeding clouds or using giant mirrors to reflect heat back into
space.
HTML https://u4d2z7k9.rocketcdn.me/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/GeoengineeringMethods-ClimateCentral_900_639_s_c1_c_c.jpg
The long term knock on effects of such methods are unknown and
rife with destructive potential too, so it is best to be wary.
The bottom line is we’ve already locked in a more difficult
future, which is all the more reason to take drastic
counter-measures now, even at an economical loss. It is
difficult to estimate, but the consequences of putting short
term benefits first will be far worse long-term loss.
References
Ricke, Katharine L., and Ken Caldeira. “Maximum warming
occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission.”
Environmental Research Letters 9.12 (2014): 124002.
Climate Central: Geoengineering methods.
HTML https://earth.org/data_visualization/the-time-lag-of-climate-change/
[/quote]
All the stuff I have read points to a number of thresholds we
have already crossed.
Biggest canary in the coal mine will be Ice Free Arctic. Thats
coming very soon. Spells disaster for food production. Thats
when you need your bunker full of tinned peaches and spam...
I do believe we have screwed the pooch already. I am not giving
up in despair, just trying to make a life boat for whoever gets
through this clusterfuck.
Plant trees. Consume less. Thats all we can do. I have given up
trying to change people or the system. They will self correct
shortly.
JOW
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