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#Post#: 632--------------------------------------------------
Re: TWG CXXIII: Desperation (Day 1)
By: hoezzy Date: April 14, 2020, 10:26 am
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Re: Penguin's lynch of Lena Leia does articulate a decent
defence of it. Just one more thing I would like to know: Penguin
already lynched L_S before Lena. Why would he need to lunch
someone else to gather information?
#Post#: 633--------------------------------------------------
Re: TWG CXXIII: Desperation (Day 1)
By: Cosmic Date: April 14, 2020, 11:17 am
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I can only assume he was looking for a reaction from everyone.
He wanted to see what people thought of him by making what
seemed to the naked eye to be a fairly random lynch. He
certainly succeeded in that regard.
#Post#: 634--------------------------------------------------
Re: TWG CXXIII: Desperation (Day 1)
By: JessieFae Date: April 14, 2020, 11:27 am
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unlynch for now, that clarifies things a lot more for me
#Post#: 635--------------------------------------------------
Re: TWG CXXIII: Desperation (Day 1)
By: Le_Shrub Date: April 14, 2020, 11:30 am
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This is literally the first time I've gone to bed and not had
any plan on what to do the next day (usually that's when I make
my plans, like the jailkeeper/wolf plan last game).
I'm under suspicion because I made what seems like a very
choreographed mistake but it really wasn't, I panicked because I
forgot the meta (as I said, background Minecraft killed me) and
typed really fast to make sure no one else made the same stupid
mistake I did.
Usually when my posts are confusing I scramble and I have a blue
role to claim quickly (see Psychic in AEI). I don't have that
here and my normal sporadic posting looks wolfy because I have
no clue what to do this game. I'm getting pulled in a lot of
different directions here.
Now I think leia's convinced by so I'm going to change my lynch
to KKE. I don't think both KKE and Penguin can be wolves,
especially not if they're bussing each other so hard on day 1.
It's going to be really easy for the quieter players to hide in
this town if they do happen to be wolves, especially because of
all this chaos between the more active ones.
#Post#: 636--------------------------------------------------
Re: TWG CXXIII: Desperation (Day 1)
By: Penguin022 Date: April 14, 2020, 1:21 pm
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[quote author=hoezzy link=topic=27.msg625#msg625
date=1586854857]
Hoello guys!
This is my first TWG or ToS game in a while so I cannot really
agree or disagree with you all when you point to someone
behaving in a similar way as in a past game where they were
guilty, so oops.
Reading through everything I cannot really see who among KKE and
penguin looks more guilty, although I am leaning towards one, so
I would not lynch anyone for now. I would like to see more
discussion before I decide to vote.
[/quote]
yaaaaaaaaaay I'm so happy you're here it's been too long!
Leia basically said close to everything I wanted to say better
than I could (thanks Leia). I'm sorry if it's difficult for me
to articulate what I mean sometimes, but I'll keep trying to
explain anything that doesn't make sense. I'll quickly respond
to a few things now --
[quote author=hoezzy link=topic=27.msg629#msg629
date=1586875221]
Yeah, I am waiting for KKE's defence. To answer Leia's
question, let's go over some keypoints:
- L_S walking back on his statement is quite suspicious and we
seem to be agreeing on this.
- I haven't played a lot of recent games so can't say anything
about KKE's points about repeating patterns in behavior of some
users. However, what I remember is that Penguin definitely tries
to lead the town when he's scum. He's also active and assumes a
leadership position when he's town. Likewise, KKE is active and
prominent both as scum and as town.
-Penguin's lynch of Lena is suspicious and I don't really but
his reasoning. Penguin is smarter than this, and that lynch of
Lena seems out of character for him.
-KKE keeps changing her lynch. She thought L_S was town
initially and lynched Zech, then did a 360 on that, and now
she's lynching Penguin. Her behaviour is strange, especially
given she changed her position on L_S after Penguin said L_S
seems scum which can be chalked up to two things: either
Penguin's reasoning convinced her or that she's scum and wants
the day over with safe and sound. If the latter is the case, you
can argue that Zech is innocent too. However, given that she
seems to be accusing almost anyone including Cosmic where there
is nearly a consensus that Cosmic is town seems suspicious.
However there isn't any hard evidence against KKE apart from
some assumptions, so I want to wait for her defence before
lynching anyone.
To answer Leia's question, there seems to be more suspicious
behavior from L_S right now than Penguin or KKE, so if I had to
go with someone, I would go with L_S. However, other members are
considering his actions as something to be revisited later on
and not to lynch him right now, and it seems like the real
question here is whether KKE or Penguin022 are the real
contenders for the gallows. Among them, KKE's behavior seems
more suspicious than Penguin's for reasons I have discussed, so
I am slightly leaning towards lynching her. However, I need to
see KKE's defence before voting on who to lynch.
[/quote]
- I agree that it might be difficult to determine who is wolf or
human since KKE and I can often be very loud players whether we
are wolf or not, so I suggest trying to read between the lines
to assess whether or not it seems like we are working pro-town
or against town (based on the ways in which we speak), and also
try to think of the reasoning we would do what we're doing from
both a townsperson's perspective and a wolf's perspective.
- As Leia said, I lynched to get information. As I've said in
previous games, I don't like how conservatively evereyone plays
with their lynch vote, and I think specifically on day 1, you
should use your lynch vote to push people to get information. I
used my lynch vote for just that -- to generate a reaction from
Lena and the rest of the town. I certainly did get a reaction
from KKE, and a few other players, but I got most of what I
wanted from the vote. I detailed all of the info we got from my
vote a page back.
- Worth noting that I'm not sure there had been a concensus on
Cosmic when KKE suspected him, I think I was the only person at
that point who thought Cosmic was specifically townleaning. I'm
not sure we will ever be able to have the "hard evidence"
against KKE that you want since it is day 1, but I think all of
the points Leia and I made together make the evidence pretty
hard.
- I'm still suspicious of L_S, but much less-so than I am of
KKE. If you're more suspicious of L_S, feel free to lynch him
since I think he's more active to respond atm.
I agree with everything Leia said and the only thing I'd add is
that the first few pages were just the beginning of her being
sketchy, and I outlined where she started to seem super wolfy on
the last page (which I'm still willing to clarify if you don't
get it, ik I can be pretty bad at getting my point across).
[quote author=hoezzy link=topic=27.msg632#msg632
date=1586878012]
Re: Penguin's lynch of Lena Leia does articulate a decent
defence of it. Just one more thing I would like to know: Penguin
already lynched L_S before Lena. Why would he need to lunch
someone else to gather information?
[/quote]
I'm pretty lackadaisical with my vote, especially on day 1, L_S
was already going to have to defend himself since he had a
couple votes against him besides me, but I knew that Cosmic was
right that we weren't gonna get very far with it, L_S would come
online and say "whoops sorry if I seemed wolfy" and we would
either lynch him or not based on that. I wanted to continue
generating discussion like I did with my L_S lynch, so I went
after Lena and then left without giving reasoning, since I knew
there was a lot you could draw from that, and it became even
more interesting since I had started the last leading
lynchtrain.
[quote author=Cosmic link=topic=27.msg633#msg633
date=1586881066]
I can only assume he was looking for a reaction from everyone.
He wanted to see what people thought of him by making what
seemed to the naked eye to be a fairly random lynch. He
certainly succeeded in that regard.
[/quote]
I don't think I could've put it better myself, thanks.
[quote author=Le_Shrub link=topic=27.msg635#msg635
date=1586881842]
This is literally the first time I've gone to bed and not had
any plan on what to do the next day (usually that's when I make
my plans, like the jailkeeper/wolf plan last game).
I'm under suspicion because I made what seems like a very
choreographed mistake but it really wasn't, I panicked because I
forgot the meta (as I said, background Minecraft killed me) and
typed really fast to make sure no one else made the same stupid
mistake I did.
Usually when my posts are confusing I scramble and I have a blue
role to claim quickly (see Psychic in AEI). I don't have that
here and my normal sporadic posting looks wolfy because I have
no clue what to do this game. I'm getting pulled in a lot of
different directions here.
Now I think leia's convinced by so I'm going to change my lynch
to KKE. I don't think both KKE and Penguin can be wolves,
especially not if they're bussing each other so hard on day 1.
It's going to be really easy for the quieter players to hide in
this town if they do happen to be wolves, especially because of
all this chaos between the more active ones.
[/quote]
Since you seem to suspect the quieter players more, which of the
players in the middle right now do you suspect the most? It'll
be easier to get stuff from them if you push 'em a bit.
#Post#: 637--------------------------------------------------
Re: TWG CXXIII: Desperation (Day 1)
By: Le_Shrub Date: April 14, 2020, 1:43 pm
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Right now I'm mildly suspicious of those in the middle
-CM definitely knows what he's doing now after a few games, so
the random appearance and human claiming seemed a bit off to me,
especially because I feel he should have read through the topic
before claiming human.
- Similar reads on Zech and Boomen, although I feel like their
claims suit their playstyles more so I'm not too suspicious of
them.
-Lena isn't really contributing much, but this point's already
been touched upon.
- I don't know how to read jerk at the moment, but you could
argue this is another player that's been quieter and
non-contributive so far.
- Not a real point, but where is Sky? Has he posted yet?
I do think this is a situation where we have one loud wolf and a
couple quieter wolves in the background, or maybe a pair of loud
wolves. Regardless, the quiet people aren't off the hook and I'd
like to push them.
Because I still think there's a loud player leading them, I'm
keeping my KKE lynch. I hope she comes on with a defense.
#Post#: 638--------------------------------------------------
Re: TWG CXXIII: Desperation (Day 1)
By: hoezzy Date: April 14, 2020, 2:01 pm
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Miss you too Penguin! Blame KKE who we're gonna lynch for
dragging me back in this mess 😂
I think I get your reasoning for the most part, and reading your
and Leia's replies again I do think there is good evidence that
KKE is wolfy. Brilliant day 1 strategy though - back in my day
we didn't have these fancy ideas. We just random lynched someone
on D1 😂
Considering everything, I am convinced enough that KKE is scum.
My vote may change if KKE's defence is good, but for now...
Lynch KKE.
#Post#: 639--------------------------------------------------
Re: TWG CXXIII: Desperation (Day 1)
By: ZechAkari Date: April 14, 2020, 3:15 pm
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I'll lynch KKE
#Post#: 640--------------------------------------------------
Re: TWG CXXIII: Desperation (Day 1)
By: emertxEtaKtiK Date: April 14, 2020, 3:43 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Alright, first off, because I am being accused, worst comes to
worst, I am Human. Although I did not want to say it, I might as
well because of how I am getting accused. You guys can lynch me
if you’d like because honestly, it would do town more of a favor
in case I was Bomb or somehow fucked by the Bomber Wolf. If I
die, at least you aren’t losing a Seer or Guardian or anything
like that. It would have saved other town roles from visiting me
and potentially risking death in case I am bomb/visited by Bomb
Wolf. You will also see that I am not a Wolf upon a Lynch if you
really wish. (IDK why my MacBook keeps making Lynch capital but
just stick with it).
Re: Meta with me not being skeptical
It seems like the vast majority of the argument against me is
based on how I suddenly changed my mind and wasn’t as confident
in what I was saying or lynching. People probably think I am
always super confident according to past game.
This is not true. If you are going to base an argument that I am
not wishy-washy usually, it’s only if I have definitive
evidence. Last game, I was Seer; I had not played a single game
in over a year since then and I honestly forgot my play style
before last game because it’s been god knows how long. I Seer’ed
Lena as Blue while others called her out for scum-leaning
behavior. Since I knew L_S was Warden and that I was Seer, I had
a STRONG gut feeling he wanted to hear more from SB/Lena because
they were his two visitors and because I knew Lena was blue for
a fact (given that there are only 3 blue roles, I’d know Lena is
JK as long as Shrub told the truth, and I saw no reason in Shrub
lying about being Warden, so it would make sense that SB would
be the other visitor since then I’d know Lena is JK cuz the odds
of Dauber/Hypno are already slim enough and the odds of that
wolf fucking around with me or Lena is even slimmer). There was
minor risk involved, but I had information that still was
beneficial. After all, it would make sense as I know Lena would
be Blue and SB did not particularly claim, so I felt very solid
in my decision to call out SB and defend Lena last game. In all
honesty, I chose to Seer Lena specifically because I got a scum
read from her. Had it not been for the Seer check, I almost
could have gone with lynching Lena the next day. If you saw any
other situations, I was always doubtful of others. I’ve read
posts from Kowhai, Jess, Nick, and even Leia (suspecting
Independent then), and I think people, especially Penguin the
host last game, would know that I am always skeptical. I always
think of worst case scenario. [Like last game, worst case
scenario for me was that Leia was Independent because Town was
starting to trust her a lot] along with Zech being Human [bc
people were dead set on him being Independent]. Just wanted to
bring all this up because a lot of the contention seems to be
around me doing full 180s, yet NO ONE seems to even bring to
attention how I flipped 180s from pushing a SB Lynch to
suspecting Nick, and then later trying to push more out of
Kowhai before Kowhai decided to be put out of her misery.
However, if I don’t have the information, I play always thinking
about worst case scenario and struggle to make game decisions
sometimes. However, what really surprised me was how Leia and
Penguin based [and initiated] discussion on how the wishy-washy
behavior of mine is unusual. What was weird was that they should
have known my behavior last game was wishy washy whenever I did
not have evidence. The only evidence I had was on Lena; I was
wishy washy on other players, and switched suspicions back and
forth b/w Zech, Nick, Kowhai, and later even Jess/Leia. I change
my mind when new things come up easily. Like, I was fine with
Leia until she made a post saying we’d win as long as we Lynch
the last wolf and jail SB each night, and that post leaned
Independent for me. I was skeptical of how SB hinted at wanting
to Lynch Nick and then going like “We can Lynch his accusers”
(which he said before he was confirmed as Wolf)…after we all
realized he was wolf. I found it funny how they just did not
seem to even think about trying to see how I played last game
given my role. Yes, I came off as firm and confident in
decisions initially, but that was because of the one Seer check
along with information from LS.
“And then she's been throwing out so many different scenarios,
it's hard to keep track of. Could these be literally all of her
thoughts? Sure. Could it also just be a solid strategy to make
it seem like you're participating and actively contributing to
town when really you're just trying to distract and confuse?
Also yes.” —Leia’s post for reference [/spoiler]
[spoiler=Penguin’s Strategy of Generating More Discussion]
First of all, in Penguin’s long post (84), he presents this test
and ASSUMES/PREDICTS that two predominant black and white
situations will occur
1. People follow the train against Lena
2. People end up lynching Penguin022
I think we can all agree both scenarios would provide very
interesting situations. However, I would like to note that so
far, the bulk of Penguin’s points were examples of my posts of
me being wishy-washy and changing my vote, and how I kind of
swayed back and forth after falling for the second scenario.
It’s based upon the assumption that I have usually been
confident in the past and had a “lead-the-town” mentality, but
this isn’t even always the case. If I know information, I won’t
stop from trying to lead the town, but like WHAT EVERYONE has
said, it is Day 1. We have NOTHING THAT IS DEFINITIVE.
It’s always been a personality of me to try and bring stuff up
if other people aren’t talking as much, but then end up
following other people’s suggestions or taking others’
suggestions into consideration, whether it’s in person or
online. The only exception is if I have a strong reason why they
would be wrong. (Like with me knowing Lena was Blue before she
revealed as JK)
In all honesty I want to admit my mistake. I wasn’t really
thinking about anything; I was so invested *no pun intended* in
my literal test on investments that I honestly wasn’t really
thinking through. I made an impulsive mistake, on my behalf. I
honestly think trying to pull a plan like Penguin’s
justification on Day 1 would be way too risky for anyone’s play,
after giving it some more consideration. Like it could seriously
go wrong in some cases just as much as it can help find a scum
role. Looks like it was thought out, and if he really is a wolf,
props to him for tricking everyone and trying to screw me over.
But yeah, honestly wouldn’t Lynch Penguin for now even if his
whole argument is against me, because in all honesty, he backed
his assumptions going into this strategy, and my behavior fit
those assumptions, like if he was looking for a specific type of
behavior from a pre-established plan, then I honestly would have
appeared pretty sketch. I just really don’t understand why him
and Leia thought me being wishy washy was new all of a sudden
considering I still displayed cautious/always thinking of
different scenario behavior back and forth ish stuff in the last
game as a Seer.
I will admit I didn’t make the smartest moves or maybe just
behaved too recklessly bc I had other stuff going on. I give
Penguin credit on his argument that I did not place much
effort/thinking on why you lynched Lena. I just realized it was
an odd move from you and wanted to question it more and push
more of why you chose to Lynch Lena by placing a Lynch on you.
As what players have said before, lynches are used to place more
pressure and to try to get a player to talk it out more, and I
wanted to hear more from you in that sense. Along with the fact
that I had externalities going on outside the Internet, I don’t
always have the right mindset to be thinking of explanations for
every little bitty detail each day. Either way, I got the
explanation I wanted from Penguin’s behavior.
PS - @57, do you think I’d really be that stupid to say that if
I am a wolf lmao, I would not try to bring attention to that if
I was a wolf tbh
[/spoiler]
#Post#: 641--------------------------------------------------
Re: TWG CXXIII: Desperation (Day 1)
By: CalaMity Date: April 14, 2020, 3:51 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
I think it was Lena who asked but I'm most suspicious of KKE and
Penguin because very heavy-hitting, early game leaders always
seem a little odd to me. I've seen wolves do things similar to
how they're playing.
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