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#Post#: 1331--------------------------------------------------
The Coronavirus Covid 19 Pandemic is No Hoax - Check the Numbers
DIR By: Doug K
Date: October 21, 2020, 11:36 am
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Against my better judgement I will post about a topic other than
the Erie Canal, on the Forum, just to see if we get a
conversation going.
You wouldn't expect any less from an Engineer, looking at a
pandemic, it will always come down to logic & numbers. Here's
how to best show and understand the impact of Covid on the
United States, it's just math. And that math shows that we still
have quite a long way to go still, before we start winning the
Covid battle.
It won't be easy, especially when many folks in this country are
saying that the Covid Pandemic is a hoax.
The numbers on Covid 19 speak for themselves, it's no hoax.
Here's a breakdown of the Top 10 causes of deaths in the United
States, a term that we now find can only be applied loosely, we
are not "united" anymore as this Covid pandemic has shown.
These numbers are from a study done for MD Linx - Public Health
section, looking at 2018 mortality data for the country. I have
updated the numbers shown for cause of deaths from deaths per
100,000 to per 1,000,000 to compare with other data you will see
in this post.
This information came out BEFORE the Covid Pandemic was becoming
an issue here in the USA.
HTML https://www.mdlinx.com/article/top-10-causes-of-death-in-the-us-in-2020/MNpEowpA8DXKBUNcbmkpY
[attachimg=1]
Here are the Covid 19 Numbers as reported and collected by
Worldometer, a company who's been tracking World Population
numbers for years and has now changed and added Coronavirus
information to their website. There are slight differences in
how the data is displayed as Worldometer does add US Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico to the counts, they don't just cut off
at 50 stated and the District of Columbia like some other Covid
counting website chose to do. In the end the data is supported
by sources they verify like John Hopkins & the WHO & CDC.
HTML https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
[attachimg=2]
Look at the two circled numbers, one red, one black... alarming
when you compare to other diseases like Cancer & COPD in that
top chart.
Folks, these aren't fake numbers made up to scare anyone, it's a
measure of how deadly this new virus is compared to others
things measured that kill people.
It's the best way to show how potent this virus can kill, and it
shows that many people in the United States have become
complacent to something that kills every 90 seconds. The rate of
death in this country has been as high as every 20 seconds, and
yesterday, October 20, 2020, the GLOBAL death rate for Covid 19
exceeded that... more than 4 people died every minute from this
pandemic yesterday on this planet.
For those who want to dismiss the pandemic and say masks are not
needed, the Death & Transmission rates for Covid say your wrong!
And for those who want to minimize these deaths by simply saying
it's all "fake news and behind us now", YOUR ignorance of a
problem doesn't make it go away magically.
Covid 19 is no hoax, but a continued denial of "simple math" in
the Semi-United States of America, is the real joke... a deadly
joke at that.
Think twice before trying to argue with these numbers.. it could
cost you more than you know.
#Post#: 1334--------------------------------------------------
America's Response to the Covid Pandemic is Horrible - Check the
Numbers
DIR By: Doug K
Date: October 24, 2020, 10:31 am
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Because some of you wanted to know.. here's another look at
Covid from the perspective of the entire world. Because in the
end it's always good to look at anything with something that has
been lost in our Country lately... that is Perspective.
[attachimg=1]
Anyone that says OUR country has done a good job fighting this
pandemic is a fool who has lost all perspective, or refuses to
acknowledge facts.
Here's the latest Covid Numbers from one of the several Covid
Tracking websites out there, it's called World-ometer and keeps
a critical perspective needed for a pandemic like Covid, what a
given country or states POPULATION is.
[attachimg=2]
In the USA we have had almost 230,000 deaths now from this
virus... that amounts to over 691 deaths per million inhabitants
of our country
For Saint Lucia and Barbados that death total would be almost
100% their entire country's population, along with over 40 other
smaller countries being tracked for Coronavirus.
Perspective tells us that the size of the country, and the
amount of people who live in that country will have a roll in
understanding Covid data.
So let's look at the Covid numbers by Country, looking from most
populated down... once again the numbers for the United States
show the true tale. The response of the Leadership in Washington
DC, at the FEDERAL level has been poor at best, but borders on
pure neglection and dereliction of duty when compared to other
countries fighting the EXACT same virus.
[attachimg=3]
Now as an Data Analyst & Engineer I could show quite a few more
data views, maybe a few graphs thrown in for good measure. Some
would like it, some would say "boring". But NOTHING that I could
do will change the simple fact that the United States has
performed the WORST of most global countries with over 20
million people. There are SIXTY countries in that list... all
with over 20 million inhabitants.
And the United States of America ranks LAST in performance
against this pandemic compared to the rest of the world.
Successfully fighting against the Covid Crisis in this country
has been hampered by only one thing.. a lack of UNITY.
No united response to the pandemic by each state, no united
message or plan by Mr. Trump and his administration. In fact
this country can't even agree about mask wearing or whether we
measure the impact of a national pandemic using death rates or
dollar signs... how sad.
How ironic for a country who used to pride itself on that simple
word... unity. We used to feel so strongly that when we started
this democracy our country was named itself after the meaning of
that word...the United States of America.
No one could have said it better than this person.. watch the
video
HTML https://youtu.be/uCOzVYjwZrY?list=PLlvHlI3rc2tPpeqTH1YjFfgqZIZ4ljDyA
#Post#: 1335--------------------------------------------------
Covid 19 in Monroe County, When is it safe to go out again?
DIR By: Doug K
Date: October 24, 2020, 1:42 pm
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Great question in that Post Title...but sadly there is no magic
answer folks.
Like many times in Life the best answer is "It depends".
First, understand that there's a data driven method to most good
answers, while the best answers use as much data as needed to be
about 80% confident that the path being chosen would work the
best for the majority of people. There is no 100% solution
because of that old saying about pleasing everyone, all the
time.
And right now these "United States" of America seem to be
divided POLITICALLY about a problem that is MEDICAL in nature...
Here's a look at the USA for Covid data on October 23. I've
chosen that day because it set a new record on Covid cases in a
day. I have also sorted the data by State Population because in
a viral based problem the population will determine the final
numbers based on a rate per million people that live somewhere.
It is no surprise that states who've tried to ignore or minimize
the Virus (similar to the White House) are now seeing their
numbers grow as their plan to "do nothing" appears to have
backfired
[attachimg=1]
And for perspective let's chose numbers of other viral based
diseases that get tracked in this country...the best to use is
Influenza data.
I looked around many websites trying to find one that showed
Influenza data by state easily, this one is perhaps the best
with a nice map that shows the entire USA by Flu deaths rates
per 100K in 2018. The year 2018 was an especially bad year for
the US with the Flu.. about 60,000 deaths recorded
HTML https://www.livestories.com/statistics/us-influenza-flu-pneumonia-deaths-mortality
To adjust for a Covid Comparison in rate per Million people,
it's a factor of 10, so simply move the decimal point. That puts
the NY State Rate around 184 flu deaths per million. NY State
has a population of 19.5 million people.. you do the math.
[attachimg=2]
In our worst year NY did see about 3600 deaths by Influenza,
according to this data set. Again, when you talk about disease
type deaths it's key to keep perspective and reference to
something, like population size. NY is the fourth biggest state,
and has one of the larger cities as well.
So with all things considered a rate of 10 deaths per day in the
STATE of NY for a viral type disease is a big number... and
quite a bit depends on where you may live in that state.
Obviously New York City will be very different than Rochester in
Monroe County. For many of us living in Upstate NY, the
happenings of NYC do not accurately show what's happening in
less crowded counties, cities & townships.
So lets look at JUST Monroe County so we can see what the "old
normal" used to look like with just Influenza & Pneumonia data.
Here's the past three years of Influenza & Pneumonia figures for
our own County. It shows cursory information on flu contraction
& deaths and is a good gauge to use for understanding similar
types ailments that kill of the herd here.
[attachimg=3]
So on average Monroe County sees about 6000 cases per year of
Influenza/Pneumonia and about 18 deaths per season, we have
about a 6-7 months long season for Flu here. Now back to
Worldometer for the COVID-19 numbers on Monroe County, and those
numbers don't look good overall:
In Monroe County we have just under 7000 total Covid cases now,
and just over 300 deaths. And that is for the first 10 months of
this new virus so the numbers show that Covid-19 is way more
efficient at what it does.. kill vulnerable humans. That is a
fact, not an opinion, and the numbers support the statement.
[attachimg=4]
It's all just math at the end of the day. If you look at the
Monroe County Flu numbers, we see 16-20 deaths annually, divided
by months makes sense when looking at Covid. From what we see,
the Flu normally accounts for about 1 or 2 deaths per month...
three would be a high number.
And Monroe County also has around 6000 flu cases per season
which would mean less than 17 per day putting that rate across
365 days, as Covid doesn't have a season. So give it some room
for an annual amount to use for Covid Comparisons, and you get
around 20 cases per day for normal influenza & pneumonia cases
So, back to that question... When is it safe to go out outside
again?
Maybe when Monroe County sees less than 2 or 3 deaths per month
would be a good start... more than that and it's Covid adding to
the totals.
Or maybe this is better: When Monroe County sees less than 20
new cases of Covid per day. Because that's what the Flu looked
like around here before we were overly consumed by those "USA
Daily Covid Case Numbers"
And just maybe the citizens of this country should unite and ask
Mainstream Media to start reporting RATES of infection & death,
not just the biggest numbers they can find to sensationalize the
pandemic even more. Maybe they have forgotten that is also
increasing the fear for many older folks and that "fear" may not
warranted.
Right now it actually looks good for Monroe County... we are
trending below past those NORMAL influenza & pneumonia levels &
rates with Covid 19. But like with any virus, especially this
Coronavirus strain, it only takes a small gathering of people
who don't want to be "bothered" by mask wearing or keeping a
distance to turn those numbers into what we know as a "Covid
cluster event".
HTML https://mappingmonroe.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/217749730f174776a3896b3e8950e03b
[attachimg=5]
But who can say what "normal" is for Covid in our country, it's
anyone's guess.
And that is SADLY because Covid-19 isn't just about a medical
problem plaguing this country now, it has become a political &
social hot button for many, who don't seem to care about the
toll this pandemic is taking on human lives. There are many in
this country, mostly Republicans it seems, who want to count the
cost of Covid in numbers that start with Dollar Signs.. $$$.
We all have the same rights in this United States of America or
should have. But some folks think that a US citizens right "not
to die from the Covid pandemic" should also be weighed the same
as others' right to frequent their favorite gym or restaurant,
or maybe take in a movie.
Or even to wear a MASK to protect others & themselves, pretty
sad when that selfishness is resulting in sorrow and death for
others.
Right now the BEST way for anyone to FIGHT against the Covid
Pandemic is simple...
Do it with your VOTE, and elect Joe Biden... a President who
won't simply ignore the problem and "hope" it goes away.
#Post#: 1336--------------------------------------------------
Re: The Coronavirus Covid 19 Pandemic is No Hoax - Check the
Numbers
DIR By: Michael Caswell
Date: October 24, 2020, 4:57 pm
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It's very simple! If you want to avoid getting COVID, then
take these simple steps.
If you see a TRUMP SIGN on someone's lawn, stay away.
If you see someone with a TRUMP sticker on their car, stay away.
If you see someone without a mask, that person is likely
following the GOP/Trump philosophy of not wearing masks, stay
away.
Republicans are spreading this pox with their lack of social
distancing, lack of mask use, and generally following procedures
that are super-spreader events.
See what I mean
HTML https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/24/politics/mac-short-coronavirus-positive-test/index.html
#Post#: 1337--------------------------------------------------
Re: The Coronavirus Covid 19 Pandemic is No Hoax - Check the
Numbers
DIR By: Michael Caswell
Date: October 25, 2020, 8:32 am
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Health Agency Scraps Coronavirus Ad Campaign, Leaving Santa
Claus in the Cold
HTML https://www.wsj.com/articles/health-agency-scraps-coronavirus-ad-campaign-leaving-santa-claus-in-the-cold-11603630802
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