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#Post#: 137--------------------------------------------------
Defenders
By: Josephus Date: July 29, 2013, 2:31 pm
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I seldom spend much on defence at the beginning on the season.
There is too much uncertainty. Attacking points from defenders
are virtually impossible to predict and as teams gel together
for the season there are fewer clean sheets at the beginning of
the season. I'm not happy when my 4.5 mill defender scores me 1
point. I really don't like it when my 6 mill investment does the
same.
I thought that for defenders I would pick my standout player
from each team. As its my list I reserve the option to pick 2
defenders if there is an abundance of quality ;D
The number at the end of each team name is the average number of
goals they conceded per game last season in the league.
Arsenal 0.97
With the second best defensive record last year you have your
choice of defender at 5.5 mill a pop. As previously discussed,
Sagna wins my vote based purely on the lack of competition for
the right back slot.
Aston Villa 1.82
The Villa defence was all over the place last year. They
conceded 41 goals away and 27 at home. In 25% of their games
they conceded 3 or more goals. It will take a brave soul to back
the defence this year. Luna at 4.5 is new to the squad and
advertised as an attacking left back. The Villa fans appear
quite happy with the signing which is probably relief that
Bennett will be on the bench opposed to Luna's record of 2 goals
in 96 career games.
Cardiff 0.98
Cardiff had the second best defensive record in the Championship
last year conceding 45 times in 46 games. Over the season they
kept a 18 clean sheets and of their 23 home games, only conceded
more than 1 goal on two occasions. The big question is can they
maintain this form with the big boys? Turner at 4 mill is a
regular starter in central defence - what could go wrong?
Chelsea 1.03
Chelsea's defence is full of if's, butt’s and maybes. Ivanovic
being last seasons stand out performer is predicted to start
game 1, but possibly give way to Azpilicueta for game 2. Cole at
6.5 looks to be the most nailed on, but with Bertrand pushing
for his job I can see Cole getting a rest against easier
opponents which is just great for the Cole owners :'(
Crystal Palace 1.34
Palace's defence struggled to contain the Championship sides
last season with only 11 clean sheets. Of the remaining 23 teams
in the league, only 9 of them conceded more goals than Palace.
Parr at 4 mill is the best of a bad bunch. He is currently on
his way back from injury and him being fit for week 1 is in the
balance.
Everton 1.05
A new manager and a new formation. Baines 7.5 and Coleman 5
could be played as wingers with Everton playing 3 defenders at
the back. With Gibson as a holding midfielder he allows these
two the freedom to join the attack. Out of position players are
amazing value and Everton are throwing them at us. Baines is
likely to be joining Man U where he will loose some dead ball
opportunities and he will become over priced. If Baines stays,
then you could do worse than two Everton defenders. Everton kept
7 clean sheets at home and 4 on the road last season. Everton
conceded more than 2 goals in a game only once last season.
Fulham 1.58
Hangeland's heroic 154 points in 10/11 when he scored 6 goals is
now a distant memory. Fulham are a team in decline. Reither at 5
mill was a stand out performer last season with 1 goal and 6
assists.
Hull 1.13
Chester 4 mill is a product of Man U's academy and should be a
fixed starter in Hull's back 3. He has missed 2 league games in
each of the last two seasons for Hull. I have concerns for Hull
this year but with Norwich, Cardiff, West Ham, Villa, Sunderland
and Palace representing the first 6 teams to visit the KC
Stadium it's feels it now or never for this team.
Liverpool 1.13
The Liverpool defence offers lots of choice. Johnson and Enrique
at 6 and Toure with tempting 5 mill price tag. With goals,
assists and clean sheets from both full backs last year I've
created teams with both players present. Possibly overkill, I've
decided that Johnson just pips Enrique out of the two. Enrique's
forward positioning for a few weeks last year has inflated his
potential and I feel that Johnson was unlucky to have not scored
more points last season. It’s so much easier to fit Toure in
with his 1 mill saving - I think he has been brought into the
team as a 1st team starter but he is still going to be rotated
more than I'm comfortable with.
Man City 0.89
The best defence in the league last season. 10 clean sheets at
home and 8 away. The only worrying stat is that they let in 3
goals on 5 occasions. It's hard to see past Zabaleta at 6 mill
who established his starting position last season. His stats are
much lower than I remember with just 2 goals and 2 assists.
Another worrying statistic is that he only played in 12 out of
Man C's 18 clean sheets due to rotation.
Man U 1.13
Man U have a tough start and I can see them conceding in most of
their first 5 games. Its really hard to even pick 1x regular
starter so its probably best to stay away from Man U until their
fixtures become easier and their preferred starting players are
more obvious. Rafael is suspended for the start of the season.
Newcastle 1.75
Newcastle had a poor season last time out and their defence is
looking shaky pre-season. Coming in at around 5 mill for a
starting defender it does feel that the FPL have over priced
Newcastle’s backline. With just 4 clean sheets at home and 2
away I foresee much of the same this season.
Norwich 1.53
10 clean sheets from last season is a tempting stat. However,
away from home last year they conceded 5 goals, 4 goals and 3
goals twice. There were also 2 home games where they conceded 5
and 4 goals once. Norwich's transfer appear to add strength to
their attacking options. Turner at 4.5 mill gives us a cheap
route into the Norwich defence. At this price he can happily sit
on your bench and you if he is ever called upon to make an
appearance in your team you can be sure of either a 6 or 0
point return.
Southampton 1.58
Southampton offer up two budget priced full backs at 4.5 mill.
Clyne and Shaw offer a tempting route into their defence. There
is a lot of hype around these two players but with only 7 clean
sheets last season and the only attacking returns from the pair
came from Clyne with 1 goal and 3 assists. If Southampton can
build on last years success then there could be value here.
Stoke 1.18
Stoke had a bad defensive spell last year but still finished the
season conceding just 2 more goals than Man U. With Hughes now
at the helm and promising attacking football I have concerns
that the defence may not be as solid as previous seasons.
Pieters is 5 mill and the cheapest of the starting 11. The Stoke
defence appear to have collectively stopped scoring goals. With
Huth at 5.5 mill and scoring 3/6/3 goals over the 9/10, 10/11
and 11/12 seasons I'm hoping Hughes will spark a return to his
goal scoring form.
Sunderland 1.42
With home games against Arsenal, Liverpool, Man U, Man C,
Chelsea and Spurs representing 6 out of Sunderland’s first 8
home games not even the staunchest Sunderland fan are building
their FPL team with defenders from their own club.
Swansea 1.34
Swansea's impressive 10 clean sheets paired with Rangel's 3
goals from last season has seen an overall price increase for
the Swan's defenders. At 5.5 mill Rangel has potential but I
feel at this price I would prefer a defender from say Arsenal.
Throw in the Europa League and Swansea may be pulled in too many
directions this season leading to poor FPL returns.
Tottenham 1.21
Vertonghen kept on scoring towards the end of last season. As
payment for his 5 goals his price has now skyrocketed to 7 mill
which is 1 to 2 mill more than his backline colleagues. Spurs
only kept 9 clean sheets last season and its my experience that
few defenders are able to maintain their scoring record. 7 mill
its a big chunk of change.
West Brom 1.5
West Brom finished 8th in the league. Their record has 8 clean
sheets. In 17 games they conceded more than 1 goal which is a
worrying statistic if you have a Baggies defender in your team.
McAuley at 5.5 mill played all bar 2 games last season and
scored and assisted 3 times. He had also scored twice in the
previous season so small attacking returns could be expected.
West Brom are another yoyo club in regards to defensive returns.
West Ham 1.39
The Hammers had 11 clean sheets last season and the price for
their defenders has increased to reflect this. With a fairly
easy opening fixture list there could still be value in one of
their players. Rat is a new acquisition and at 5 mill offers a
more attacking role than the cheaper Collins at 4.5. Rat is in
the twilight of his career and having only scored 3 goals in the
past 7 seasons it would take a remarkable turn in form to make
the extra half a mill worth it.
Taking wildcards out of the equation I would start the season
with the following 5:
Sagna (5.5) Arsenal
Johnson (6.0) Liverpool
Coleman (5.0) Everton
Turner (4.0) Cardiff
Chester (4.0) Hull
Total (24.5)
If this is too much then I would consider bringing in West Ham’s
Collins at 4.5 mill for either Sagna or Johnson. Which could see
my defensive squeezing into a 23 mill budget.
#Post#: 138--------------------------------------------------
Re: Defenders
By: farside Date: July 29, 2013, 5:36 pm
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Thanks for doing this, this is very very helpful!
#Post#: 139--------------------------------------------------
Re: Defenders
By: Wiseowl65 Date: July 30, 2013, 10:40 am
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Thanks and a great write up one thing to note with Everton is
Alcaraz has done his hamstring and could miss the start of the
season so Martinez may postpone his much talked about 3 at the
back it only leaves Heitinga as the 3rd senior defender so may
start with the back four Coleman should still start but not as a
miss classified defender.
#Post#: 149--------------------------------------------------
Re: Defenders
By: Isalla Date: July 31, 2013, 10:31 am
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Excellent post, Josephus.
In long term, I was thinking about Sagna, Evans (if he becomes a
regular, which I think he will; two years ago he saved my
season, last year, well... meh) and Toure (again, if he becomes
regular) + 2 cheap defenders. The idea is to almost always play
three forementioned. It's around 24 mil for all of them. Of
course, I'll monitor form, other "bigger" defenders, but somehow
I'm not completely sold onto five 4.0-4.5 mil defenders everyone
seems to use, at least not in the first few GWs until things
become more clear.
#Post#: 150--------------------------------------------------
Re: Defenders
By: Josephus Date: July 31, 2013, 4:21 pm
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I tried the 5x cheap defenders before and it's a little
uncomfortable. If you have 1x premium player and then choosing 2
from 4 it's not too bad.
I tend to spend most of my transfers on my front eight players
which forces me to choose a defence that I can leave. A general
rule of thumb is the cheaper the defender is, the more at risk
of rotation they are.
#Post#: 151--------------------------------------------------
Re: Defenders
By: Isalla Date: August 2, 2013, 8:03 am
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Off topic (and I didn't want to open a new one just for this),
I'll be going on vacation and will return that weekend PL
starts. I'll only have my smart phone with me, so please excuse
me for not writing any comments and insights in this period.
#Post#: 152--------------------------------------------------
Re: Defenders
By: Josephus Date: August 2, 2013, 7:05 pm
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Have a great holiday 8)
#Post#: 153--------------------------------------------------
Re: Defenders
By: farside Date: August 3, 2013, 12:09 am
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seconded!!
#Post#: 154--------------------------------------------------
Re: Defenders
By: Wiseowl65 Date: August 3, 2013, 6:16 am
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Enjoy your break I am also away from Friday 16th to Monday 19th
only going UK based so will have Wi-Fi and internet access and
should be able to post and finalise any last minute changes :)
great planning from the other half though couldn't have timed it
any better could she.
#Post#: 155--------------------------------------------------
Re: Defenders
By: farside Date: August 3, 2013, 2:50 pm
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Does she not understand the important of the 17th?!?! :p
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