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#Post#: 119--------------------------------------------------
RVP - 14 Mill?
By: Josephus Date: July 27, 2013, 6:12 am
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How good is Robin van Persie?
At 14 mill you need to be really confident that he will get you
a regular return especially as he is more than often captain
material.
Last season RVP scored 262 FPL points which compiled of 26 goals
and 15 assists. He played in every Premiership game and scored
in 21 of them. He also scored 5 goals in 4 out of 5 of Hollands
World Cup qualifiers and 3 goals in 2 out of 6 Champion League
games.
So what does 14 Mill get you?
I put together a quick list of potential players we may consider
for our forward positions:
Price Minutes per
Point Points per Mill
RVP. 14. 12
18.7
Suarez. 11 14
15.1
Lambert. 7.5 17
24.9
Benteke. 9 17
18.4
Berbatov. 7.5 17
21.7
Giroud. 8.5 19
14.2
Aguero. 11 16
11
Sturridge. 9 13
11
Of all these players, RVP played the most minutes out of all of
them with the exception of Lambert who was on the field for 3
more minutes. These players played 3123 and 3126 minutes
respectively. To put this feat into perspective the 3rd highest
game time was Suarez who played 2953 mins followed by Berbatov
on 2844.
RVP scored the most points per minute which clearly backs up his
regular captaincy choice.
It's a little fuzzy, but based on this years price and last
years points, only Lambert and Berbatov offer better value.
Berbatov turns 33 in January and in footballing terms he is
likely to now be in decline.
It feels like Man U are prepared to spend this summer which can
only boost RVP's appeal. Last season, Man U's wingers were
atrocious. Combined, Valencia, Young and Nani provided 15
assists which is equal to RVP despite being on the pitch for
1083 more minutes. Because of their poor form, RVP was starved
of goal scoring opportunities and players like Kagawa were
played out of position to compensate. Assuming a return to form
by the wingers and players being utilised to their strengths,
RVP could eclipse last years tally.
The biggest concern is the Moyes effect. I can see it going
either way which is an opinion of zero worth - sorry.
Last season not having RVP cost me. For most of last season my
strategy was to pick the best players with the highest
ownership. I worked on the assumption that I'd spread my risk.
From around weeks 28 to 32 I was ranked top 10. With most of
the teams around me having similar players I knew I was running
out of weeks to catch the leader who was around 30 points ahead
of me. Whilst catching him was possible, in order to do so many
of the teams above me would also do the same so I'd just be in a
situation with a different leader to catch up. RVP had been
through a barren spell and I decided to sell up and bring in
Rooney :o RVP then scored 6 in the next 4 games and as
everyone except me had him as captain my ranking fell like a
stone.
If Bale leaves then ownership of RVP will skyrocket. It's a boat
I'm pretty sure I don't want to miss. The great thing is that
with Man U's tough early fixtures you may be able to get away
without him. Even if he scores I can't see a big price increase
as so many people already have him. If anything, his price may
drop if he fails to score in just 1 game.
From week 6, Man U have a great run with only Spurs and Arsenal
being potential problems before they play Spurs again in week
20. It's highly possible I need to have Van P in by then. I
currently have no idea how I'm going to raise 14 mill in week 6
so the transfers from weeks 3, 4 & 5 need to be saving me some
cash. With the above games, Arsenal and Liverpool's fixtures
become trickier from week 10 so this may be the best route to
raise the cash. Maybe I'll just bite the bullet and bring RVP in
for week 2 with my wildcard. If he scores well in week 1 then
this may be my only realistic option.
#Post#: 121--------------------------------------------------
Re: RVP - 14 Mill?
By: Wiseowl65 Date: July 27, 2013, 6:59 am
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Your post makes perfect sense Josephus and is what I was
thinking of doing, maximise the DGW without RVP then look at the
w/c in week 2 to evaluate the price rise or drop depending on
his performance in the first game hopefully an early season
picture of the standout very early season cheap performers will
give us a clue as who to shoehorn into the team enabling us to
afford RVPs 14m price tag if you decide to include him into your
game week 2 plan.
#Post#: 126--------------------------------------------------
Re: RVP - 14 Mill?
By: farside Date: July 27, 2013, 9:36 am
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I think this is interesting and was going to do this for all the
top players at some point. Briefly though..
points per million minutes per point
lukaku : 19 12
Walcott : 20 11.7
kone : 20 20
Snodgrass: 23 20
Walcott is the best overall player followed by lukaku of anyone
I found whilst doing this, if they get the same gametime as RVP
they both get more points that him. This does seem to be an
argument for risking lukaku in gw1. I included kone and
Snodgrass as sorta the best of the cheaper alternatives as
comparison. If you are going to have one long term player it
really should be Walcott.
The points per million stat can be a little misleading as there
are players we would expect to maybe get a little more or maybe
less gametime this season and that vastly affects that number.
Sturridge, for example, will probably get way more game time
which makes him way more FPLable.
The main problem with RVP isn't the question of how good he is
but the fact his price is SO high you don't build the best
points per million team. Let me put it this way, lets say you
could pick 1 player more than once, you wouldn't pick 7 RVP's,
you would pick 11 lamberts. It's better to include him in a team
if you have the opening rather than to start with him and work
around him, you just don't build a very efficient team.
#Post#: 127--------------------------------------------------
Re: RVP - 14 Mill?
By: Josephus Date: July 27, 2013, 9:52 am
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[quote author=farside link=topic=19.msg126#msg126
date=1374935780]
Briefly though..
points per million
lukaku : 19
[/quote]
I omitted Lukaku because he played for West Brom last season. I
decided that too many variables had changed with him playing at
Chelsea this year.
#Post#: 133--------------------------------------------------
Re: RVP - 14 Mill?
By: Isalla Date: July 27, 2013, 12:44 pm
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I may be mistaken, but I don't see too much relevance of the ppm
from last season. There are lot of variables that had given rise
to that, for example, Walcott's biggest hauls were when all
attackers were injured and he played practically lone striker
with Cazorla providing. Although he continued to play more
offensive after Giroud was there and got some points, will that
stay this was if Suarez joins? Speaking of him, with Arteta,
Cazorla and Walcott providing, could he surpass his last year's
ppm? RVP's ppm could also drastically change for better if
Fabregas joins; I don't think it can drop too much since he
techically doesn't need good providers that much. Best examples
would be Silva from 2 years ago and last year, as well as
Aguero, Walters, Sessegnon and, to some extent, Pienaar - just
because their team changed the style of play.
Michu 9.0 16 (mpp) 21.1 ppm
#Post#: 134--------------------------------------------------
Re: RVP - 14 Mill?
By: Josephus Date: July 27, 2013, 1:19 pm
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I agree that the ppm stats are not the best and I indicated that
they were 'fuzzy'. With so many variables to consider it's
really tough to compare footballers. The best you can do is
build up your knowledge and then pick the players that you're
confident with.
In hindsight, it would have been better if I used the points per
minute stat for value comparison.
Having the knowledge of a change of tactics or personal allows
you to put a perspective on last seasons figures. By example,
Toure at Man C is rumoured to be played in a more holding role
this season so his attacking returns from the previous couple of
years may be a red herring this year.
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