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#Post#: 113546--------------------------------------------------
Re: England Team vs Chile
DIR By: Yareet
Date: September 25, 2023, 5:42 am
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--- Quote from: never sleep link ---
>
> This is making my head hurt :-)
>
> The thing you may have missed is that Argentina still need to
play Japan. So, both teams can't get to 14 or more points.
> So, if Japan get 15 points, then Arg can only get to 11 max.
(4pts + 1 bp win + 2 lbp)
>
> But - yeah - I will be cheering Japan.
>
>
--- End Quote ---
Likewise, I have a piece of paper with numerous possibilities.
I've written 14, 5, 5, 4 so many times! And yeah you're right
about Arg only getting to 11.
#Post#: 113549--------------------------------------------------
Re: England Team vs Chile
DIR By: Brown Bottle
Date: September 25, 2023, 6:42 am
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Well, I was about to agree with Yareet's first post, having also
missed the point about not using the worst case scenarios.
However, luckily I popped out to the shops and missed all the
head hurting. Thanks for that, Yareet and never sleep!👍
#Post#: 113552--------------------------------------------------
Re: England Team vs Chile
DIR By: deadlyfrom5yardsout
Date: September 25, 2023, 7:46 am
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yikes!
#Post#: 113554--------------------------------------------------
Re: England Team vs Chile
DIR By: RodneyRegis
Date: September 25, 2023, 9:44 am
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--- Quote from: T-Bone link ---
>
> The reaction to that win and Arundel's performance is
predictably ott
>
--- End Quote ---
Don't be ridiculous. It's not a reaction to beating Chile, it's
a reaction to playing some rugby.
Arundel scored 5 tries. Nobody has done that since Lewsey, and
we've played plenty of dross in that time. Always seems funny to
me that people dismiss performances against minnows - if 5 tries
is the standard then Smith had a shocker.
Irne couldn't have finished them because he wouldn't have been
there.
#Post#: 113555--------------------------------------------------
Re: England Team vs Chile
DIR By: RodneyRegis
Date: September 25, 2023, 9:48 am
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--- Quote from: Yareet link ---
>
> Thanks for this. I hadn't consider the impact of a team not
getting full points.
>
> We could however qualify during our bye weekend, I think. If
Japan get a 4-point win v Samoa but Samoa get 2 BPs, the worst
it could be would a Japan and us on 14, Samoa and Argentina on
12. So we'd top the group.
>
> Is that right?
>
> If Japan get a 5-point win v Samoa, they can get to 15 points
but Argentina can only match our 14 (so we go through as we beat
them) and Samoa can only get to 12.
>
> So, we're heering on Japan next weekend?
>
--- End Quote ---
Not really. We just need to beat Samoa, who are really really
bad :)
#Post#: 113558--------------------------------------------------
Re: England Team vs Chile
DIR By: T-Bone
Date: September 25, 2023, 10:10 am
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--- Quote from: RodneyRegis link ---
>
> Don't be ridiculous. It's not a reaction to beating Chile,
it's a reaction to playing some rugby.
>
> Arundel scored 5 tries. Nobody has done that since Lewsey, and
we've played plenty of dross in that time. Always seems funny to
me that people dismiss performances against minnows - if 5 tries
is the standard then Smith had a shocker.
>
> Irne couldn't have finished them because he wouldn't have been
there.
>
--- End Quote ---
Smith was not playing on the wing. Had Smith been on the wing,
with 3 unmarked run-ins then, yes, I'd expect him to score them
all. Arundell did finish nicely for the try where he chipped and
chased. I'm not confident Malins would have finished that.
The Smith example is silly, as he's not a winger and wasn't
playing there. I would very much expect any wing to finish the
three run-ins. I think I missed one try, so not sure how easy /
hard it was.
I don't dismiss good performances against minnows, but not sure
how scoring a few tap ins against minnows means you should be
nailed on to play against better teams.
Having said that, I don't think May, Daly or Malins should be
our starting wings, but I've thought that all along. Arundell
should probably be starting ahead of them because May and Daly
are not up to it anymore and Malins isn't playing very well. Not
because of his performance against Chileh.
#Post#: 113559--------------------------------------------------
Re: England Team vs Chile
DIR By: poorfour
Date: September 25, 2023, 10:24 am
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Just an aside on Smith. He now has 9 international tries from 29
caps (including 12 Borthwick-era caps in which his average game
time has been around 20 minutes, so counting as about 3 real
caps).
9 tries in 29 games would be a very decent showing for a winger
- until Saturday, Arundell had 2 in 9, and Malins (unfair
comparison, I know...) has 2 in 21. But if we discount his sub
10 minute Borthwick cameos, he's on around 9 in 21, which
compares quite well with May (35 in 72). Considering how poor
England as a whole have been for much of his tenure, that gives
an indication of what he adds in attack.
#Post#: 113560--------------------------------------------------
Re: England Team vs Chile
DIR By: Brown Bottle
Date: September 25, 2023, 12:08 pm
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--- Quote from: poorfour link ---
>
> Just an aside on Smith. He now has 9 international tries from
29 caps (including 12 Borthwick-era caps in which his average
game time has been around 20 minutes, so counting as about 3
real caps).
>
> 9 tries in 29 games would be a very decent showing for a
winger - until Saturday, Arundell had 2 in 9, and Malins (unfair
comparison, I know...) has 2 in 21. But if we discount his sub
10 minute Borthwick cameos, he's on around 9 in 21, which
compares quite well with May (35 in 72). Considering how poor
England as a whole have been for much of his tenure, that gives
an indication of what he adds in attack.
>
--- End Quote ---
Sorry but if you're going to massage the figures then do it for
everyone. Or don't do it in the first place.
#Post#: 113561--------------------------------------------------
Re: England Team vs Chile
DIR By: poorfour
Date: September 25, 2023, 1:49 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Brown Bottle link ---
>
> Sorry but if you're going to massage the figures then do it
for everyone. Or don't do it in the first place.
>
--- End Quote ---
Ok then.
Malins actually had a surprising number of short appearances at
the start of his career. If we apply the same metric, it works
out at about 2 in 11, which is still not very good.
Arundell, it turns out, has only played about 3.25 matches'
worth of game time, which makes his 2 in 2 or 7 in 3 pretty
exceptional if he can maintain it.
I am not going to work that out for May, but he's had 3 matches
in his international career where he was on for 10 minutes or
fewer. So you can take those off but you should perhaps add one
for that game against Argentina where he played Daly's position
as well.
#Post#: 113566--------------------------------------------------
Re: England Team vs Chile
DIR By: Brown Bottle
Date: September 25, 2023, 3:44 pm
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Steve Hanley scored a try a game.
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