DIR Return Create A Forum - Home
---------------------------------------------------------
ComeAllWithin (Harlequins Rugby)
HTML https://comeallwithin.createaforum.com
---------------------------------------------------------
*****************************************************
DIR Return to: ComeAllWithin Board
*****************************************************
#Post#: 113533--------------------------------------------------
Re: England Team vs Chile
DIR By: Yareet
Date: September 25, 2023, 3:08 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: MaidstoneQuin link ---
>
> My prediction for the backs against Samoa
>
> 9 Mitchell
> 10 Ford
> 11 Daly
> 12. Farrell
> 13 Tuilagi
> 14 Arundell
> 15 Steward
>
> I can’t see SB having all 3 10s starting so will see a bench
of Marchant Care Smith for the backs
>
--- End Quote ---
I think it'll be Youngs over Care. IMO, Danny was brought into
the squad as 3rd choice 9 and for games like Chile. He's also an
experienced campaigner who can better handle the pressure of
being dropped in to cover last minute injuries, etc. than JVP or
Mitchell can.
Although Mitchell was a replacement, I don't see that dynamic
changing. Danny (as far as I can see) stays as number 3 so
envisage it'll be Mitchell and Youngs but not necessarily in
that order.
#Post#: 113535--------------------------------------------------
Re: England Team vs Chile
DIR By: never sleep
Date: September 25, 2023, 3:16 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: MaidstoneQuin link ---
>
> My prediction for the backs against Samoa
>
> 9 Mitchell
> 10 Ford
> 11 Daly
> 12. Farrell
> 13 Tuilagi
> 14 Arundell
> 15 Steward
>
> I can’t see SB having all 3 10s starting so will see a bench
of Marchant Care Smith for the backs
>
--- End Quote ---
I think that he may want to play Smith at 15 again to give him
some experience in this position before the knockout stages.
I do wonder if he will do something a little random to get
Stewart in the team as well. Maybe to test his defence against a
hard running Samoa team. Lets face it, defence is an area he
needs to work on.
Malins has to be in the team. He wasn't good on Saturday - so he
needs more game-time to get back on track.
I suspect that Arundell will be subbed really early. Wrap him in
cotton wool.
Maybe:
9 Mitchell
10 Ford
11 Steward/Malins
12. Farrell
13 Tuilagi
14 Arundell
15 Smith
and Steward/Malins, Care, Smith
#Post#: 113536--------------------------------------------------
Re: England Team vs Chile
DIR By: MaidstoneQuin
Date: September 25, 2023, 3:19 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Steward on the wing would be a man option for sure. Perhaps he
will keep Faz at 10 and have a midfield of Tuilagi and Marchant.
Daly abs Malins aren’t good enough at the top level sadly so
would be happy to see how Steward goes at wing with Henry.
#Post#: 113539--------------------------------------------------
Re: England Team vs Chile
DIR By: never sleep
Date: September 25, 2023, 3:30 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: MaidstoneQuin link ---
>
> Steward on the wing would be a man option for sure. Perhaps he
will keep Faz at 10 and have a midfield of Tuilagi and Marchant.
>
> Daly abs Malins aren’t good enough at the top level sadly so
would be happy to see how Steward goes at wing with Henry.
>
--- End Quote ---
If my maths is correct, we only need one point from the game to
guarantee getting through to the knock-outs.
So, this is the last option to try things out.
I think we will see some of the "under-cooked" players getting a
run out. E.g. Billy V.
#Post#: 113540--------------------------------------------------
Re: England Team vs Chile
DIR By: Yareet
Date: September 25, 2023, 4:06 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: never sleep link ---
>
> If my maths is correct, we only need one point from the game
to guarantee getting through to the knock-outs.
> So, this is the last option to try things out.
>
> I think we will see some of the "under-cooked" players getting
a run out. E.g. Billy V.
>
--- End Quote ---
I'm trying to see what I've missed that means we haven't already
qualified.
Points as it stands are:
Eng 14
Samoa 5
Japan 5
Arg 4
Worst case is that Japan v Samoa is 5 points for Samoa and 2 for
Japan. Arg then thump Chile.
E 14
S 10
A 9
J 7
Final round is EvS and AvJ. Worst case would be 5 points for
Sam, 0 for us and Arg gets 5. That makes:
S 15
E 14
A 14
J out of it
First tiebreak decider is the result between the two teams. We
beat Arg so we’d go though.
What am I missing?
#Post#: 113541--------------------------------------------------
Re: England Team vs Chile
DIR By: never sleep
Date: September 25, 2023, 4:44 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Yareet link ---
>
> I'm trying to see what I've missed that means we haven't
already qualified.
>
> Points as it stands are:
>
> Eng 14
> Samoa 5
> Japan 5
> Arg 4
>
> Worst case is that Japan v Samoa is 5 points for Samoa and 2
for Japan. Arg then thump Chile.
>
> E 14
> S 10
> A 9
> J 7
>
> Final round is EvS and AvJ. Worst case would be 5 points for
Sam, 0 for us and Arg gets 5. That makes:
>
> S 15
> E 14
> A 14
> J out of it
>
> First tiebreak decider is the result between the two teams. We
beat Arg so we’d go though.
>
> What am I missing?
>
--- End Quote ---
Hmm - you could be right.
We can eliminate Argentina. The best they can get is 14 points
which would mean that we still go through based on head to head.
So, Japan would need 2 x bonus point wins to finish above us.
(i.e. need to win both games)
Samoa would need 9 points to finish above us. (i.e. need to win
both games)
As Japan still have to play Samoa, they can't both get their
targets of 2 wins each.
#Post#: 113542--------------------------------------------------
Re: England Team vs Chile
DIR By: never sleep
Date: September 25, 2023, 5:05 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: never sleep link ---
>
> Hmm - you could be right.
> We can eliminate Argentina. The best they can get is 14 points
which would mean that we still go through based on head to head.
> So, Japan would need 2 x bonus point wins to finish above us.
(i.e. need to win both games)
> Samoa would need 9 points to finish above us. (i.e. need to
win both games)
> As Japan still have to play Samoa, they can't both get their
targets of 2 wins each.
>
--- End Quote ---
According to the Independent
HTML https://tinyurl.com/yd69vwca
The victory means England have taken a decisive stride towards
the quarter-finals. They top Pool D on 14 points after three
victories and can only be denied a knockout berth if they lose
to Samoa and results conspire to produce a three-way tie, when
points difference would be decisive.
So - it is complicated.
Here are the rules:
1.1.3 Rankings at the completion of the pool phase
At the completion of the pool phase, the Teams in a pool are
ranked one through five based on their cumulative Match points,
and identified respectively as winner, runner-up, third, fourth
and fifth.
If at the completion of the pool phase two or more Teams are
level on Match points, then the following criteria shall be used
in the following order until one of the Teams can be determined
as the higher ranked:
The winner of the Match in which the two tied Teams have played
each other shall be the higher ranked;
The Team which has the best difference between points scored for
and points scored against in all its pool Matches shall be the
higher ranked;
The Team which has the best difference between tries scored for
and tries scored against in all its pool Matches shall be the
higher ranked;
The Team which has scored most points in all its pool Matches
shall be the higher ranked;
The Team which has scored most tries in all its pool Matches
shall be the higher ranked;
Should the tie be unresolved at the conclusion of steps 1
through 5, the rankings as per the updated Official World Rugby
World Rankings on October 12, 2015 will determine the higher
ranked Team.
In the event that three teams are tied on match points, the
above criteria will be applied to determine first place in the
Pool, and then the criteria will be applied again (from Criteria
1) to determine second place in the Pool.
So, in the event of Samoa, Eng + Arg all being on 14 points:
- Eng would be ranked higher than Arg
- Sam would be ranked higher than Eng
- Arg would be ranked higher than Sam
So - I think it would go to points difference.
Either way - get one point from the game and we are through.
#Post#: 113543--------------------------------------------------
Re: England Team vs Chile
DIR By: Yareet
Date: September 25, 2023, 5:21 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: never sleep link ---
>
> According to the Independent
>
HTML https://tinyurl.com/yd69vwca
>
> The victory means England have taken a decisive stride towards
the quarter-finals. They top Pool D on 14 points after three
victories and can only be denied a knockout berth if they lose
to Samoa and results conspire to produce a three-way tie, when
points difference would be decisive.
>
> So - it is complicated.
> Here are the rules:
>
> 1.1.3 Rankings at the completion of the pool phase
> At the completion of the pool phase, the Teams in a pool are
ranked one through five based on their cumulative Match points,
and identified respectively as winner, runner-up, third, fourth
and fifth.
>
> If at the completion of the pool phase two or more Teams are
level on Match points, then the following criteria shall be used
in the following order until one of the Teams can be determined
as the higher ranked:
>
> The winner of the Match in which the two tied Teams have
played each other shall be the higher ranked;
> The Team which has the best difference between points scored
for and points scored against in all its pool Matches shall be
the higher ranked;
> The Team which has the best difference between tries scored
for and tries scored against in all its pool Matches shall be
the higher ranked;
> The Team which has scored most points in all its pool Matches
shall be the higher ranked;
> The Team which has scored most tries in all its pool Matches
shall be the higher ranked;
> Should the tie be unresolved at the conclusion of steps 1
through 5, the rankings as per the updated Official World Rugby
World Rankings on October 12, 2015 will determine the higher
ranked Team.
>
> In the event that three teams are tied on match points, the
above criteria will be applied to determine first place in the
Pool, and then the criteria will be applied again (from Criteria
1) to determine second place in the Pool.
>
>
> So, in the event of Samoa, Eng + Arg all being on 14 points:
> - Eng would be ranked higher than Arg
> - Sam would be ranked higher than Eng
> - Arg would be ranked higher than Sam
>
> So - I think it would go to points difference.
>
> Either way - get one point from the game and we are through.
>
>
--- End Quote ---
Thanks for this. I hadn't consider the impact of a team not
getting full points.
We could however qualify during our bye weekend, I think. If
Japan get a 4-point win v Samoa but Samoa get 2 BPs, the worst
it could be would a Japan and us on 14, Samoa and Argentina on
12. So we'd top the group.
Is that right?
If Japan get a 5-point win v Samoa, they can get to 15 points
but Argentina can only match our 14 (so we go through as we beat
them) and Samoa can only get to 12.
So, we're heering on Japan next weekend?
#Post#: 113544--------------------------------------------------
Re: England Team vs Chile
DIR By: never sleep
Date: September 25, 2023, 5:33 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Yareet link ---
>
> Thanks for this. I hadn't consider the impact of a team not
getting full points.
>
> We could however qualify during our bye weekend, I think. If
Japan get a 4-point win v Samoa but Samoa get 2 BPs, the worst
it could be would a Japan and us on 14, Samoa and Argentina on
12. So we'd top the group.
>
> Is that right?
>
> If Japan get a 5-point win v Samoa, they can get to 15 points
but Argentina can only match our 14 (so we go through as we beat
them) and Samoa can only get to 12.
>
> So, we're heering on Japan next weekend?
>
--- End Quote ---
This is making my head hurt :-)
The thing you may have missed is that Argentina still need to
play Japan. So, both teams can't get to 14 or more points.
So, if Japan get 15 points, then Arg can only get to 11 max.
(4pts + 1 bp win + 2 lbp)
But - yeah - I will be cheering Japan.
#Post#: 113545--------------------------------------------------
Re: England Team vs Chile
DIR By: Yareet
Date: September 25, 2023, 5:39 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Yareet link ---
>
> Thanks for this. I hadn't consider the impact of a team not
getting full points.
>
> We could however qualify during our bye weekend, I think. If
Japan get a 4-point win v Samoa but Samoa get 2 BPs, the worst
it could be would a Japan and us on 14, Samoa and Argentina on
12. So we'd top the group.
>
> Is that right?
>
> If Japan get a 5-point win v Samoa, they can get to 15 points
but Argentina can only match our 14 (so we go through as we beat
them) and Samoa can only get to 12.
>
> So, we're heering on Japan next weekend?
>
--- End Quote ---
Also, our points difference is currently +110. Samoa are at +24,
Japan at +8 and Argentina at -8. For us not to be beaten on
points difference, needs the 3-way tie on 14 and for Argentina
to overturn a 120+ points difference.
It's possible but would probably require them to put c.90 points
on Chile AND us to lose to Samoa by 30 without scoring 4 tries.
*****************************************************
Page 4 of 6
DIR Previous Page
DIR Next Page