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#Post#: 108627--------------------------------------------------
Re: Next season
DIR By: KentQuin
Date: May 8, 2023, 9:12 am
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The signings should rectify our key deficiencies from this
season, namely no decent back up at 9 and having to rely on 36
year old DC to play 80mins every week, and being an experienced
body short at lock.
With Louw and Marchant off, I'd argue our best starting 15 on
paper isn't quite as good next season, but that we have better
strength in depth. Not just with the signings made, but also
with the youngsters coming through. Riley and Beard look
premiership ready and I'm expecting them to push for starts.
Anwanyu, Hammond and Baxter will all have improved from their
first team run outs this season.
Re the debate on lineout, the big question for me is who's our
go to leader when Lewies is out. He made a huge difference when
he did return for two games.
#Post#: 108629--------------------------------------------------
Re: Next season
DIR By: Banstead Quin
Date: May 8, 2023, 9:31 am
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Some really good points KQ. I do worry about 13 though,
Northmore has never really put together a run of successive
games since the Premier win and he hasn't been as elusive in his
running. Maybe with a full pre-season and starting at 13 will
make a difference as there's no doubting he could be a hell of a
player.
I'd add Mattas into the list above as well, I think he's a good
back row and line out option and doesn't shirk the physical side
of the game. I hope they're going off on their long holiday now
and those that get back to Guildford in July are ready to pick
up on what defence can look like...
#Post#: 108630--------------------------------------------------
Re: Next season
DIR By: KentQuin
Date: May 8, 2023, 10:09 am
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Northmore was woeful against Sarries. The fact we've barely seen
him since suggests he was underbaked and they've taken the
decision to make sure he's fit and firing for next season.
On paper we are short at centre, and if Northmore is out for an
extended period of time then Beard or Anwanyu are going to have
a great opportunity. I've no doubts about either of them going
forward, but yet to see either of them really examined
defensively in the 13 channel, as more often than not Beard has
played wing and Anwanyu 12 when they have appeared for the first
team shirt.
With the salary cap the coaches have tough choices to make and
the fact they've chosen to bolster elsewhere suggests they must
have faith in the two youngsters.
And agree on Jurevicius. He's always impressed me when he's made
first team cameos. He seems to be one of those Jonny on the spot
types, coming up with a rip, steal or intercept, which suggests
he's got the intellect. He's been almost exclusively playing for
Scottish this year so I've not seen anything of him. Has he done
well? And has he been playing lock or blindside?
#Post#: 108631--------------------------------------------------
Re: Next season
DIR By: Quinston Churchill
Date: May 8, 2023, 11:14 am
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--- Quote from: KentQuin link ---
>
> The signings should rectify our key deficiencies from this
season, namely no decent back up at 9 and having to rely on 36
year old DC to play 80mins every week, and being an experienced
body short at lock.
>
> With Louw and Marchant off, I'd argue our best starting 15 on
paper isn't quite as good next season, but that we have better
strength in depth. Not just with the signings made, but also
with the youngsters coming through. Riley and Beard look
premiership ready and I'm expecting them to push for starts.
Anwanyu, Hammond and Baxter will all have improved from their
first team run outs this season.
>
> Re the debate on lineout, the big question for me is who's our
go to leader when Lewies is out. He made a huge difference when
he did return for two games.
>
>
--- End Quote ---
.
Yeah I agree with all of this.
Re. the second paragraph, I’d be slightly more specific. I think
the first XV is marginally weakened, but the 23 is stronger. In
other words, the depth we have is in the most useful areas,
rather than simply having plenty of bodies.
With any new signings, you never quite know how it will go but
here’s how I see it. JEv should be a better fit than Allan which
will allow more continuity when Marcus is away, Launchbury
should be an upgrade on any of our other second rows (plus
adding the leadership experience we’ve lacked), Porter is a
level above any of the other understudies we’ve had for DC and
Lewis is about as good a replacement for Wilco as we could have
hoped for (personally I always felt Louw was a little overrated
while Lewis seems to be underestimated).
The other massive factor I don’t think anyone has mentioned so
far (?) is the RWC. It could either be difficult for us or …
not. It would be controversial, but IMO, a fit Ford could be a
massive threat to Smith’s inclusion and Dombrandt and Walker
aren’t established enough to be considered certainties for the
RWC squad. Dombrandt might be in possession of the 8 shirt, but
he hasn’t replicated his Quins form and I could easily see
Mercer and potentially Tom Willis edging him out. Walker hasn’t
really had a chance to show what he’s made of, but with the
relative dearth of experienced hookers behind George and LCD, he
might have a decent shout. Murley is still making an excellent
case to be a bolter, but I’d argue he’s the most ‘replaceable’
of the four given the back three options we have.
I could see us with 4 or 5 in the squad, but I could see it
being as few as 1 or 2. If Smith and Dombrandt aren’t picked,
I’d go as far as saying we’ll win the league.
#Post#: 108642--------------------------------------------------
Re: Next season
DIR By: The Absolute Quintet
Date: May 9, 2023, 8:22 am
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The poor red zone issue is bound up with how unsuccessful our
forwards have been with slow ball. With fast ball, it seems to
me, we have generally scored. Once the ruck speed drops, we're
just get a bit desperate and try silly offloads or get turned
over on the floor due to a non-dominant carry. Other sides are
able to make progress with slow ball, in the Exeter mode, we
just can't. Lack of heavy ball carriers, yes certainly, but also
a technique issue? I just wonder if it's the downside of the
Speed over Shape approach? Sometimes it just has to be grunt and
commitment.
#Post#: 108644--------------------------------------------------
Re: Next season
DIR By: poorfour
Date: May 9, 2023, 9:32 am
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--- Quote from: The Absolute Quintet link ---
>
> The poor red zone issue is bound up with how unsuccessful our
forwards have been with slow ball. With fast ball, it seems to
me, we have generally scored. Once the ruck speed drops, we're
just get a bit desperate and try silly offloads or get turned
over on the floor due to a non-dominant carry. Other sides are
able to make progress with slow ball, in the Exeter mode, we
just can't. Lack of heavy ball carriers, yes certainly, but also
a technique issue? I just wonder if it's the downside of the
Speed over Shape approach? Sometimes it just has to be grunt and
commitment.
>
--- End Quote ---
I imagine a big part of it is Evans and Kenningham both having
been out for large parts of the year, but your point about ruck
speed is well made. We're not set up to just keep rumbling at
the line until it breaks.
We've also tended to struggle when the opposition are allowed to
flop over the ruck or encroach offside - our attacking gameplan
relies heavily on being able to get quick ball, and is generally
successful if the ref keeps the opposition honest.
#Post#: 108661--------------------------------------------------
Re: Next season
DIR By: The Kid
Date: May 10, 2023, 6:08 am
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The “taking the three” debate has been on this board for years
as we play aggressively and live and die by it, and we all get
frustrated when it’s the wrong call. Our two best wins this year
on the road have been where we got this right, at Leicester and
at Sale.
It is a conundrum because while we don’t do it enough, it’s not
always the right thing to do and when it goes right, we get
vindicated by kicking to the corner 90% of the time. What’s
clear is we do it less than other teams in the league and most
that do it more finish above us, especially this year. The team
as it stands is capable of scoring very quickly and if we stayed
in touch longer by kicking points, we would win more of these
games where we have snuck an LBP in the past. The stormers game
was one example, as was Bristol at home.
If working for Quins is as much like working for Google as the
players say it is, you’d like to think they’d execute analytics
on this sort of stuff thing and use it to situationally game
plan. But maybe they don’t? If they do, it was probably part of
their review and why maybe we are seeing a maul coach come in to
convert the 5 point opportunities more regularly. Could be due
to the lineout breaking more generally, but an easy way of
solving the debate is scoring more frequently when you kick to
the corner.
There’s loads to it; when you are in the game, what the score
is, whether the opponent has 14 men or not, and success rate. We
probably have a decent sample size, to see where we are more
likely to succeed than not, and react accordingly. When, for
example, are we better off taking a chance at a rolling maul, or
a tap, with say a 30% chance of scoring 7 points vs a 90% chance
of taking three.
You can then react accordingly, working on your maul or phase
play (seemingly what we have decided to do by bringing in a
specialist coach) to tip the odds accordingly, or getting in a
90%+ goalkicker and playing the percentages the other way (this
is what Saracens do) to ensure you get the best out of what you
have. It won’t work the same way in every game, but it would
make sense to play the best possible way we can with the guys we
have.
#Post#: 108666--------------------------------------------------
Re: Next season
DIR By: Quinston Churchill
Date: May 10, 2023, 6:45 am
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There are masses of variables, but if I had the time and
resources to do it, I’m pretty confident that I would be able to
come up with some good data points to improve decision-making on
taking the 3. I would be surprised if someone at the club isn’t
doing it, but I think it’s fair to say that hasn’t successfully
translated to what we’re seeing on the pitch.
Hopefully Wilson sorts out the maul and the lineout to the
extent that it’s more of a moot point.
#Post#: 108669--------------------------------------------------
Re: Next season
DIR By: JammyGit
Date: May 10, 2023, 7:00 am
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There's also the idea that if you're not doing something all the
time on the pitch in a live contest - i.e. going for the corner
- then you'll not be anywhere near as good at it when you do
actually try it.
Our biggest problem has been our inability to finish off good
attacking positions. My belief is that it's a case of too much
disruption over the course of the season; we have not dealt well
with having to constantly chop and change to fill big holes.
Maybe that's a coaching issue, maybe it's a squad depth issue,
maybe it's something else entirely.
#Post#: 108671--------------------------------------------------
Re: Next season
DIR By: never sleep
Date: May 10, 2023, 7:03 am
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One point about “taking the three” is that it may win games -
but, you may lose out on 4 try bonus points.
Is it more important to gamble and go for the 4 try BP (aka TB)
rather than a conservative win?
I think the answer to that question is in the league bale for
this season.
We got the TB 11 times this season
Chiefs won more games than us but only got 4 TBs. Therefore, we
finished above them.
In the season where Gustard left, it appeared as though he was
going for a more conservative approach - i.e. kicking 3 to win
games.
I calculated it during that season and saw that even if a team
had won every game of the season, but didn't get a single TB,
then they may have still had an away semi-final.
And, if they didn't get a single bonus, then they would only
scrape the top 4.
So, winning isn't everything - but maximising bonus points is
important.
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