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#Post#: 105024--------------------------------------------------
Re: Smith out Ford in
DIR By: Quinston Churchill
Date: March 3, 2023, 4:49 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: poorfour link ---
>
> Got a bit fed up of people writing off Smith on 606v2, so I
did a bit of analysis of England since 2020 with different 10/12
combos:
>
> I may not have this entirely accurate as I had to cobble it
together flipping between pages on the RFU website, but since
the 2020 6N (not counting sub appearances.):
> Ford is 2W-0D-2L, all against Tier 1 opposition and with
Farrell at 12
> Farrell (at 10) is 2W-0D-1L, all T1 with Lawrence at 12
> Smith is:
> 3W-1D-4L with Farrell at 12 (all T1)
> 0W-0D-3L with Slade at 12 (all T1)
> 3W-0D-0: against T1 and 2W-0D-0L with anyone else at 12.
>
> Or looked at another way:
> Farrell at 12: 5W-1D-6L
> Slade at 12 0W-0D-3L
> Any other 12: 7W-0D-0L
>
> Reasonable conclusions to draw:
> 1) Slade should not play 12
> 2) Farrell is not as bad as Slade, but also probably shouldn’t
play 12
> 3) Having a proper 12 produces significantly better results
than not having one
>
--- End Quote ---
I did my own analysis on this @poorfour
A couple of corrections. Smith has actually started 5 games with
Slade at 12 and it’s also worth noting that they resumed this
partnership for the majority of the game vs. SA when Tuilagi
went of very early. It doesn’t change much as it’s still only a
50% win rate.
Not sure where the 7 W with ‘any other 12’ comes from? I make
this just 3 - 1 start each with Dan Kelly, Ollie Lawrence and
the short lived one with Tuilagi mentioned above.
I’m no fan of Farrell’s and not much of Slade fan (Henry not the
band) but it’s factually inaccurate to say Smith’s had 7 wins
with another 12. It’s 3 if we’re being generous and 2 of those
vs. tier 2 opposition.
#Post#: 105026--------------------------------------------------
Re: Smith out Ford in
DIR By: RodneyRegis
Date: March 3, 2023, 4:58 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Quinston Churchill link ---
>
> I went on Simon Chi’s website just now:
HTML https://www.vanguard403.com/.
Some interesting stuff there
including an analysis of Robbo’s choice to kick for the corner
in 2015 and Tabs is on a lot of the videos too.
>
>
>
--- End Quote ---
This is the crux of that matter:
Perhaps the better question to pose was why England chose to
throw to the front for that pivotal lineout
#Post#: 105038--------------------------------------------------
Re: Smith out Ford in
DIR By: Yareet
Date: March 3, 2023, 6:19 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: RodneyRegis link ---
>
> This is the crux of that matter:
>
> Perhaps the better question to pose was why England chose to
throw to the front for that pivotal lineout
>
--- End Quote ---
Even Sam Warburton agrees with that.
Same for the womens World Cup Final v NZ ☹️
#Post#: 105057--------------------------------------------------
Re: Smith out Ford in
DIR By: Account_109
Date: March 3, 2023, 11:22 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: poorfour link ---
>
> Reasonable conclusions to draw:
> 1) Slade should not play 12
> 2) Farrell is not as bad as Slade, but also probably shouldn’t
play 12
> 3) Having a proper 12 produces significantly better results
than not having one
>
--- End Quote ---
There are no reasonable conclusions to draw based on the data
you've given, since the sample sizes are far, far too small, and
it doesn't take account of any other context, such as who the
opposition was, or other selections. Win rate can be (but isn't
always) a good rough measure of past performance, but it's a
pretty poor predictor of future performance - unless you think
that Lawrence playing 12 when England beat the USA in 2021 means
that England are more likely to beat Ireland in Dublin if they
pick him.
#Post#: 105116--------------------------------------------------
Re: Smith out Ford in
DIR By: deadlyfrom5yardsout
Date: March 5, 2023, 1:58 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Bolly-Quin link ---
>
> Here are the top 5 fly halves (>100 mins played):
>
> 1. Romain Ntamack 🇫🇷 15.73
> 2. Johnny Sexton 🇮🇪 6.89
> 3. Ross Byrne 🇮🇪 5.89
> 4. Tommaso Allan 🇮🇹 2.23
> 5. Finn Russell
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
0.53
>
> Some way below: Farrell: -7.89 [emoji33] [emoji35] [emoji23]
[emoji1]
>
> Smith didn't qualify as not enough minutes...
>
>
>
>
--- End Quote ---
I'm not sure what those figures mean Bolly? Is it some sort of
composite across a number of factors?
#Post#: 105199--------------------------------------------------
Re: Smith out Ford in
DIR By: Bolly-Quin
Date: March 6, 2023, 1:05 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: deadlyfrom5yardsout link ---
>
> I'm not sure what those figures mean Bolly? Is it some sort of
composite across a number of factors?
>
--- End Quote ---
Simon Chi's "EPA" number - as discussed in Yareet's original
link. I have no idea how he compiles/computes these but I just
thought it was illustrative that Farrells were so low...
#Post#: 105211--------------------------------------------------
Re: Smith out Ford in
DIR By: Yareet
Date: March 7, 2023, 3:31 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Bolly-Quin link ---
>
> Simon Chi's "EPA" number - as discussed in Yareet's original
link. I have no idea how he compiles/computes these but I just
thought it was illustrative that Farrells were so low...
>
--- End Quote ---
An earlier post from Simon explains EPA
HTML https://www.vanguard403.com/post/2021-six-nations-player-ratings-wings
#Post#: 105212--------------------------------------------------
Re: Smith out Ford in
DIR By: deadlyfrom5yardsout
Date: March 7, 2023, 4:12 am
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Pretty comprehensive analysis then!
#Post#: 105218--------------------------------------------------
Re: Smith out Ford in
DIR By: BedfordshireBoy
Date: March 7, 2023, 7:07 am
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I would have expected Smith or Ford to have been released back
to their club by now.
#Post#: 105219--------------------------------------------------
Re: Smith out Ford in
DIR By: JammyGit
Date: March 7, 2023, 7:33 am
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There's no pressure on Borthwick to do so, and plenty of reasons
not to.
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