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#Post#: 94682--------------------------------------------------
Re: Top 4 prediction
DIR By: Banstead Quin
Date: August 30, 2022, 7:09 am
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Ok, controversial time. I think Sarries have had their day with
their current big name players. Thanks to idiots like Stephen
Jones and sadly, Chris Jones the whole 'redemption' nonsense
kept them going and as players like Mako & Billy will be absent
from the England squad I wonder what will be their motivator?
That said, of course they have ridiculous strength in depth but
I believe they may just scrape top 4 but won't find it as easy.
Farrell will be so focused on staying fit because of the WC next
year so will play less games, not to the ridiculous level Johnny
Sexton will but they will only roll him out for Europe and
bigger club games.
I also think Saints and Glaws will be good but drop at the end
with maybe one of them making Top 4 but next season they will
both be great and challenging at the end.
Agree that Tigers will not be the same force as a whole. Pollard
has looked disappointing in the summer and he won't play enough
games to be a major contributor. Outstanding signing that Watson
is, he won't want to put his last WC opportunity at risk so I
see them being very indifferent.
Sharks will look ok for a while but when Ford and Tuilagi stop
playing, it'll be tougher after the turnover of players and
Quirke will be a huge miss ahead of his transfer to Quins next
season (again, sorry Yareet)
We'll finish top 4 again but I think this won't be a vintage
season across the league as a whole and all of the teams
mentioned above in other posts have a good chance of winning it.
I'll proffer that the team with the best run-in form wins it...
#Post#: 94683--------------------------------------------------
Re: Top 4 prediction
DIR By: Fursty
Date: August 30, 2022, 7:18 am
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Sarries
Quins
Gloucester
Saints
#Post#: 94684--------------------------------------------------
Re: Top 4 prediction
DIR By: Audi Quintro
Date: August 30, 2022, 7:41 am
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Sarries are nailed on for a top 4 spot.
The others will probably be three of the following Quins,
Saints, Glos, Tigers and possibly Sale.
#Post#: 94685--------------------------------------------------
Re: Top 4 prediction
DIR By: T-Bone
Date: August 30, 2022, 8:18 am
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Sarries are nailed on. I don't see how you can write off tigers,
who lead from start to finish last season. I know they're losing
two important players, but as far as I'm aware they've kept most
of the others.
I think internationals will really hurt us. I doubt we'll lose
Danny and we have decent back up for Marchant. The problem is if
Allan gets called up as well as Smith, and there's a huge drop
off in the replacements for Marler and Andre
I really think we'll miss Symons and Tiz too, despite the
replacements.
So I fear we'll miss top 4 this season. That said, other than
Sarries and Tigers I don't think anyone can be very certain.
Pick any 2 from Exeter, Saints, Quins and Glos. I can't see
anyone else getting there
#Post#: 94697--------------------------------------------------
Re: Top 4 prediction
DIR By: poorfour
Date: August 30, 2022, 11:31 am
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I thought I read that Ford was potentially out for most of the
season with the injury he picked up in the final. That's a big
problem for Sale of it's true.
Yup: here it is:
HTML https://www.planetrugby.com/george-ford-sale-sharks-and-england-fly-half-to-miss-rest-of-the-year-due-to-achilles-injury/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CGeorge%20ruptured%20his%20Achilles%20going,really%20good%20pushing%20it%20through.
#Post#: 94699--------------------------------------------------
Re: Top 4 prediction
DIR By: Quinky
Date: August 30, 2022, 11:44 am
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I wouldn't be surprised it Tigers drop off a little, but would
expect the to be top 4. As said earlier, Pollard hasn't been
great for SA- but I think he'll shine at club level.
Sarries - the team that was near invincible is getting older
now. Injuries/callups will impact them, and the domination will
surely fizzle out (a la All Blacks). Maybe not this year, but I
expect them to suffer more defeats.
Quins - a lot depends on weather (we're great on fast, dry
turf), callups, injuries. Also, if our locks "click" and our
front & back rows continue to excel, they could well be the top
pack in the league.I think we'll be top 4.
Outside of that, it's really anybody's guess. Until around the
third week of the season we won't know who's injured, who's
settled quickly, and who's just treading water.
#Post#: 94713--------------------------------------------------
Re: Top 4 prediction
DIR By: Yareet
Date: August 30, 2022, 4:50 pm
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--- Quote from: poorfour link ---
>
> I thought I read that Ford was potentially out for most of the
season with the injury he picked up in the final. That's a big
problem for Sale of it's true.
> Yup: here it is:
HTML https://www.planetrugby.com/george-ford-sale-sharks-and-england-fly-half-to-miss-rest-of-the-year-due-to-achilles-injury/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CGeorge%20ruptured%20his%20Achilles%20going,really%20good%20pushing%20it%20through.
>
--- End Quote ---
To be fair, we started the last couple of seasons without our
first choice 9 and 10s. Looks like we�re doing the same again
&#9785;&#65039;
#Post#: 94719--------------------------------------------------
Re: Top 4 prediction
DIR By: Yareet
Date: August 31, 2022, 3:57 am
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On the subject of settled teams:
[img]
HTML https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fa3prFdWAAA2ebB?format=jpg&name=4096x4096[/img]
Analysis of the percentage of games started by players who have
left. eg the 4 spot for Quins might cover Tizard and Symons.
Gloucester would look to be the most settled. Saints and Tigers
looking pretty good. Sarries only really suffering the loss of
Koch and Swinson.
#Post#: 94721--------------------------------------------------
Re: Top 4 prediction
DIR By: Quinston Churchill
Date: August 31, 2022, 4:36 am
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Saracens may have lost Swinson but their cash has bought them an
excellent replacement we know very well [emoji22]. Koch will be
a big loss for them though.
From our POV, call-ups might not be as bad as we fear.
Smith and Esterhuizen are big losses but probably our only
players who are certain to be picked (Andre already has been).
Marler isn�t a certainty to a) be selected or b) make himself
available, but with it being a RWC year, I�m assuming he�ll want
to be involved.
Marchant was really shoddily treated in Australia. IMO, he
should be England�s starting 13 but Eddie Jones doesn�t seem to
agree. I still think he�ll be in the wider squad, but if he�s
not in he 23, it�s possible we could get him back?
Similar for Allan. He�s no longer Italy�s first choice 10 so
even if he does get called-up, it�s not necessarily for the
whole AIs/6N.
Dombrandt is probably the most negatively impacted by Billy
Vunipola�s return to the England squad and with Mercer now
available for selection for the RWC squad, he has a bit of a
battle on his hands. I�d like to see him in the squad, but
whether he will be is definitely debatable.
Care�s trip to Australia was a bit of a pointless exercise.
After his early substitution in the 3rd test, I don�t see him
staying in the squad.
Walker didn�t see a single minute of game time. He�s another who
could get called up and released when he doesn�t make the match
day squads.
#Post#: 94724--------------------------------------------------
Re: Top 4 prediction
DIR By: Quinky
Date: August 31, 2022, 5:36 am
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--- Quote from: Yareet link ---
>
> On the subject of settled teams:
>
>
>
[img]
HTML https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fa3prFdWAAA2ebB?format=jpg&name=4096x4096[/img]
>
> Analysis of the percentage of games started by players who
have left. eg the 4 spot for Quins might cover Tizard and
Symons.
>
> Gloucester would look to be the most settled. Saints and
Tigers looking pretty good. Sarries only really suffering the
loss of Koch and Swinson.
>
--- End Quote ---
That is really interesting. Seems like Newcastle are either very
shaken up or selected inconsistently. Or both.
I think it needs to be balanced with two other factors - the
calibre of repacement, and the strength in depth. The former may
need time to settle, but the latter is key. For example, if we
change a selection at wing, we're rarely weak; similarly, if
Sarries drop their entire first choice XXIII, the rest of their
underpaid internationals should see little drop in
performance...
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