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#Post#: 89187--------------------------------------------------
Last 3 rounds
DIR By: Quintessential
Date: April 24, 2022, 11:21 am
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It's bizarre how this season's fixtures have worked out, because
the playoff contenders are almost all playing each other in the
final 3 rounds!
That makes the run-in a bit of a mindbender in terms of
permutations.
If I've got it correct:
Tigers pretty much nailed on for top or at least 2nd. They have
Briz (H), Falcons (A), Wasps (H)
Sarries - hard to see how they don't finish 2nd or even top.
They have Worcs (A), Saints (H), Glocs (A)
Chiefs losing today makes it extremely unlikely they can
overhaul us for 3rd as they only have 2 games left. But 4th is
possible. They have Briz (A) , Quins (H)
Saints - I think this is our biggest threat if things don't go
well on Friday. They have Quins (H), Sarries (A), Falcons (H)
Glocs - They have Bath (H), Quins (A), Sarries (H). Looks
unlikely they can go ahead of Saints as they're a point down and
well behind on points difference.
So we're stuck between Saints/Glocs pulling off miracle wins
against Sarries and opening up the possiblity of a home semi for
us...but that increases the chances of them both overhauling us.
I guess it's as simple as we need to beat Saints or at least
take points from next week, beat Gloucester at HQ and then hope
Chiefs are over and out before the final round!
#Post#: 89191--------------------------------------------------
Re: Last 3 rounds
DIR By: RodneyRegis
Date: April 24, 2022, 12:07 pm
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Chiefs can only overtake us if we lose every game without a
bonus, and they win both theirs with. They also need to overhaul
a 50 point difference. Pretty slim.
#Post#: 89195--------------------------------------------------
Re: Last 3 rounds
DIR By: KentQuin
Date: April 24, 2022, 12:16 pm
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Saints and Gloucester can reach 78 and 77 points respectively if
they win all three remaining games with try bonus points. I
think Gloucester have a slight edge in the way the fixtures fall
as Sarries may rest a few going in to the last game if they
have a home semi-final assured and mathematically can't overhaul
Leicester for first.
I don't see Saints or Gloucester returning maximum points, and
we're scoring plenty of tries so confident we'll gather enough
points. Realistically one more win needed and we'll be in the
playoffs.
#Post#: 89196--------------------------------------------------
Re: Last 3 rounds
DIR By: Brown Bottle
Date: April 24, 2022, 12:43 pm
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--- Quote from: KentQuin link ---
>
> Saints and Gloucester can reach 78 and 77 points respectively
if they win all three remaining games with try bonus points. I
think Gloucester have a slight edge in the way the fixtures fall
as Sarries may rest a few going in to the last game if they
have a home semi-final assured and mathematically can't overhaul
Leicester for first.
>
> I don't see Saints or Gloucester returning maximum points, and
we're scoring plenty of tries so confident we'll gather enough
points. Realistically one more win needed and we'll be in the
playoffs.
>
--- End Quote ---
Agreed, we should be there: but a home semi is probably too much
to hope for.
#Post#: 89201--------------------------------------------------
Re: Last 3 rounds
DIR By: Sketchley
Date: April 24, 2022, 1:27 pm
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It's not impossible for Exter to jump ahead of us but we only
need 1 point to be certain and as someone said above they need
all 10 from last 2 plus 50pt difference. But those 50pts will
disappear quickly if we lose all three without bonus points, if
my math is correct that would be a minimum swing of 32 pts, if
we lost all games by just 8, (exter counts double)
Likewise 1pt means gloucester need to win all three games
including us, Sarries and Bath. Or win 2 and pick up losing and
try bonus in third.
And 2pts on Friday would leave Northampton in similar spot
needing 2 beat Sarries and Newcastle.
Also I don't see Sarries taking foot of the gas against
Northampton or Gloucester unless 2nd is certain going into last
week.
Equally if we beat Northampton it's very possible for sarries to
then lose to both Northampton and Gloucester who would be very
up it. Which gives us a shot at 2nd.
Last game is going to be interesting, I think I'd rather play
Tigers at Welford Rd than Sarries on thier plastic pitch which
might involve me be happy if we lose.
Anyhow I'm fairly certain if we beat Saints on Friday we are
sure of at least 4th. So going to stop speculating and just
focus on that!
#Post#: 89207--------------------------------------------------
Re: Last 3 rounds
DIR By: Quinston Churchill
Date: April 24, 2022, 3:05 pm
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Saints know that they need to take maximum points on Friday.
That makes them dangerous, but it also means they have to go for
it, which probably works in favour to some degree.
It should be a fast and loose game which we like and I’d argue
we’re better at that kind of rugby than they are.
#Post#: 89214--------------------------------------------------
Re: Last 3 rounds
DIR By: East Sussex Chris
Date: April 25, 2022, 2:02 am
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If we must play away in Semi Final I would rather play Leicester
than Sarries our record against Sarries is appalling especially
away.
#Post#: 89217--------------------------------------------------
Re: Last 3 rounds
DIR By: number_seven
Date: April 25, 2022, 3:30 am
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Personally I'd fancy a trip to Hendon. Sarries won't want to
play us, we can take plenty of support up there (and it's easy
to get tickets).
#Post#: 89221--------------------------------------------------
Re: Last 3 rounds
DIR By: Maggiephilquin
Date: April 25, 2022, 4:15 am
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On the contrary. If we do have to go to Sarries, they will do
everything possible to keep our support to a minimum. I think it
only holds 10k, we will want to take 2.5k, so they’ll limit our
numbers, split us up, and blast out ‘Stand up for the Saracens’,
as we get our now famous away noise going.
#Post#: 89222--------------------------------------------------
Re: Last 3 rounds
DIR By: never sleep
Date: April 25, 2022, 4:52 am
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--- Quote from: Maggiephilquin link ---
>
> On the contrary. If we do have to go to Sarries, they will do
everything possible to keep our support to a minimum. I think it
only holds 10k, we will want to take 2.5k, so they’ll limit our
numbers, split us up, and blast out ‘Stand up for the Saracens’,
as we get our now famous away noise going.
>
>
--- End Quote ---
I am sure that with a bit of organising, we could still drown
out the noise of the other 7.5k
Vuvuzelas anyone?
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