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       #Post#: 72554--------------------------------------------------
       Tabai’s Premiership Roadmap
   DIR By: poorfour
       Date: July 27, 2021, 5:50 pm
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       First, a warm welcome to Tabai Matson, who probably doesn’t need
       this article. And that’s because one of the first tasks he’ll
       have undertaken once the match schedule for next season came out
       is to draw up his own version.
       How’s it work, mister?
       Despite what recent experience may have led us to believe, you
       can’t win every match. Some games are harder than others, and
       some games are more important than others.
       To help manage that, the coaching team will form a view of how
       many points they need to secure a given league position, and
       which games might be the best place to get them.
       We can be reasonably scientific about the points needed for each
       position – the league is actually very consistent from season to
       season. We can also be at least systematic about which games are
       more or less winnable. Home games are usually easier to win than
       away games. And games against teams that finished lower in the
       previous year’s table are usually easier than games against
       those that finish higher. Although as Quins’ opponents in the
       latter half of last season learned, past performance is not a
       guarantee of future performance.
       That enables us to look at the table after a sobering defeat and
       realise that, actually, we can take the hit and still do OK, or
       to add a little extra excitement to an unexpected win.
       More importantly, for the coaches their version of the roadmap
       enables them to make decisions like whether we are tracking well
       enough to afford to risk rotating players or resting someone
       with a niggle.
       So what do we need this year?
       Those of you who follow the roadmap regularly will know that we
       begin by setting target scores to hit the key table positions
       (1st, 4th, 6th and 11th) – and we do that by looking at what it
       takes to achieve the position below those ones, so we can go one
       better. The figures are surprisingly consistent over the past 20
       years:
       [table][tr][td] Premiership
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