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#Post#: 64775--------------------------------------------------
Why rugby is benefitting from ringfencing
DIR By: deadlyfrom5yardsout
Date: April 28, 2021, 4:20 am
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My apologies but my skills do not extend to importing the
graphics tables....
Rugby Nerd: Since Premiership relegation was scrapped, there
have been more tries, offloads and clean breaks alongside a drop
off in kicking
By
Jake Goodwill (Daily Telegraph)
26 April 2021 • 2:25pm
Last weekend's action was compelling and full of tries
Following a traumatic week in the world of football,
ring-fencing’s stock has never been so low.
Back in February it was announced that there would be no
relegation from the Premiership this campaign, with discussions
ongoing about whether this should be extended for a number of
years.
Away from the moral arguments and financial considerations, what
impact has scrapping relegation had on the pitch? Has the rugby
improved and become more entertaining? Or has the competitive
edge of the teams with nothing to play for at the bottom of the
table been dulled?
Last weekend’s action was particularly compelling. There were
tries galore and not a blowout in sight. All six games finished
with 11 points or fewer between the sides with the average
winning margin sitting at 6.8 points. But was this reflective of
the Premiership since February 12 or an outlier?
When the data for this Premiership season before and after the
announcement is compared a number of trends emerge. There are,
of course, wider factors at play including the improved weather
conditions of recent weeks and the unavailability of
international players during the Six Nations, although the
latter also applies to the first half of the season during the
Autumn Nations Cup.
Caveat aside, a number of categories have seen an alteration.
Tries scored, points per game, clean breaks, defenders beaten
and offloads have all grown, albeit not dramatically. On the
other hand, the number of penalties kicked at goal has decreased
as has the number of kicks from hand throughout a game. Once
again, these are relatively marginal decreases and not a drastic
alteration.
Premiership 2020/21: Match Averages before and after relegation
was scrapped
Bar chart with 2 data series.
View as data table, Premiership 2020/21: Match Averages before
and after relegation was scrapped
The chart has 1 X axis displaying categories.
The chart has 1 Y axis displaying Values. Range: 0 to 100.
End of interactive chart.
Unsurprisingly, given the improved attacking statistics, the
average tackle completion percentage has decreased from 88 per
cent to 86 per cent which perhaps lends credence to the argument
that the quality and desire of defences has diminished.
The one thing that has drastically changed in the league since
the no relegation announcement was made is the number of four
try bonus-points that are being collected between the two teams
per match.
Four try bonus-points attained per game pre and post
announcement
Bar chart with 2 data series.
This average is across the two teams playing in each match
View as data table, Four try bonus-points attained per game pre
and post announcement
The chart has 1 X axis displaying categories.
The chart has 1 Y axis displaying values. Range: 0 to 0.9.
End of interactive chart.
There has been an increase from 0.53 try bonus-points per game
to 0.81. Essentially, before relegation was scrapped, across a
two match period one team would score four tries or more. That
has dramatically shot up. This indicates that teams are playing
with more attacking intent and are going for more aggressive
potential try-scoring opportunities - the number of penalties at
goal per game has decreased, for example.
One surprising and perhaps even counter-intuitive change since
the announcement is that ball in play time has in fact
decreased. Given the uptick in attacking stats as a whole, it
would be natural to assume that the ball was in play for a
greater duration but the opposite is the case. Admittedly, there
is only a 10 second drop off per game (from 35 minutes and 19
seconds to 35 minutes and nine seconds) but it remains
noteworthy that there has been a decrease. This suggests that
teams are less willing to slowly build through the phases,
instead looking for more incisive opportunities.
On the whole, it would be difficult to argue that more tries,
offloads and clean breaks with a slight drop off in kicking is a
bad thing. It was only in the Autumn that international rugby in
particular came under intense scrutiny for being overly
attritional and even downright boring.
The counter-argument to ring-fencing on the pitch is that it
makes the competition less compelling. The number of matches
that would become irrelevant would shoot up and the need for
teams to churn out dogged performances diminishes.
Following this logic, the average margin of victory in the
Premiership should have increased as teams can now throw in the
towel after a tough start to a match with the jeopardy of
relegation removed. The average margin of victory before the
announcement was nine points per game, following the
announcement it is 15.8. A significant increase. But perhaps
that is the price that needs to be paid for more attacking
rugby?
Although there have been instances where teams have folded with
more ease than usual (a number of Worcester performances spring
to mind), these matches have been relatively few and far between
and it is not like drubbings did not exist in seasons when
relegation was in play.
Overall, the changes that have been seen are relatively minor
but in a positive direction. The rugby played in the Premiership
has not undergone a metamorphosis into an unrecognisable sport.
It has just become slightly more open and attacking. A change
which was much-needed in the eyes of many.
Off the pitch, ring-fencing is contrary to the competitive
nature of sport. However, from what we have seen so far,
Premiership rugby has benefitted on it.
#Post#: 64777--------------------------------------------------
Re: Why rugby is benefitting from ringfencing
DIR By: poorfour
Date: April 28, 2021, 4:30 am
---------------------------------------------------------
The drop off in ball in play might actually suggest that there
are more mistakes being made, and that periods of intense
running rugby are being followed by everyone standing around
catching their breath. But I doubt it's statistically
significant.
#Post#: 64778--------------------------------------------------
Re: Why rugby is benefitting from ringfencing
DIR By: QuincyJones
Date: April 28, 2021, 4:55 am
---------------------------------------------------------
The things mentioned in that article are things you would expect
to happen. I absolutely hate it when ridiculous articles like
this are written in favour of ring-fencing because they leave
out some very important things.
It's all well and good saying "oh look, there have been so many
more tries" but that can be for a number of reasons. Also, more
tries does not equal more entertainment. A try that means
something is SO much more entertaining than a try for a try's
sake. It's the match-winning try that guarantees a team safety
from the drop, or even a 4 try bonus point in a losing effort
that secures premiership status that means the most, and is then
more entertaining because of it. The sense of drama.
Not just watching 10th team in the league score 15 tries past
12th in the league because 12th are resigned to finishing bottom
and know the result doesn't matter anymore. Once the game is
getting away from them they'd have no incentive to put the same
effort in.
Although it was for promotion and not relegation, anyone who
watched the 2nd leg of Bristol v Worcester for premiership
promotion in (I think) 2014 can see why ring-fencing isn't good.
The same principle applies.
#Post#: 64779--------------------------------------------------
Re: Why rugby is benefitting from ringfencing
DIR By: JammyGit
Date: April 28, 2021, 5:24 am
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Ehhh... Worcester are bottom and lost to 3rd place Sale 32-35 at
the weekend. They've been smashed by a few teams, because
they're bad, but the times they've played teams closer to them
it's all been pretty tight, before and after the announcement
(I'm pretty sure everyone knew relegation was going to be
scrapped long before then).
I don't think professional players and clubs approach matches
that way. Everyone tries, regardless of what there is to fight
for. I do think that teams would be more likely to pick "weaker"
teams with an eye on the future, but it's very likely that would
pay off in the seasons ahead.
Relegation is a good idea in principle, but then it runs
straight into the brick wall of English rugby reality. We have a
handful of yo-yo clubs. Most seasons, relegation is a foregone
conclusion or realistically only affects 2 teams. This season,
Worcs have been awful and are 9 points behind the next worst,
Falcons (guessing the "we want Deano back" people are quieter
now...) who have won three more matches - partly because the
bottom team HAS been scrapping for those losing bonus points and
gotten a few try bonus points.
To save the typing, here's something I wrote back in Feb:
--- Quote ---
> have to be honest, I've never found the relegation battle to
be exciting.
>
> Last season - might have been exciting were it not for COVID
and Sarries being deducted points.
> 2018/19 - Newcastle were miles off the pace and nailed on for
the drop, though Tigers added some interest
> 2017/18 - Irish were properly dreadful and nailed on for the
drop
> 2016/17 - Bristol were properly dreadful and nailed on for the
drop
> 2015/16 - Irish and Newcastle were properly dreadful, but
Irish were the worst.
>
> It just seems that in most seasons you have one or maybe two
clubs in danger, playing godawful rugby, and they're destined
for the drop. There's no enjoyment in watching them play -
they're at the bottom for a reason - and it's usually obvious
quite some time before the end of the season that they're gonna
go down.
--- End Quote ---
The other problem is pro rugby is largely unsustainable in its
current format and there's barely any teams outside of the
current Premiership who can make a real go of it. It requires a
huge amount of money and it loses a huge amount of money if you
don't have your own ground and a big fanbase, and COVID has only
made that much worse. Ealing, for example, might be the latest
moneybags club trying to make it in the big time, but they're
watched by three men and a dog and would have to borrow another
ground. The division immediately below the Premiership is
stocked with teams who don't want to get promoted, which speaks
volumes.
#Post#: 64781--------------------------------------------------
Re: Why rugby is benefitting from ringfencing
DIR By: QuincyJones
Date: April 28, 2021, 5:55 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: JammyGit link ---
>
> Ehhh... Worcester are bottom and lost to 3rd place Sale 32-35
at the weekend. They've been smashed by a few teams, because
they're bad, but the times they've played teams closer to them
it's all been pretty tight, before and after the announcement
(I'm pretty sure everyone knew relegation was going to be
scrapped long before then).
>
> I don't think professional players and clubs approach matches
that way. Everyone tries, regardless of what there is to fight
for. I do think that teams would be more likely to pick "weaker"
teams with an eye on the future, but it's very likely that would
pay off in the seasons ahead.
>
> Relegation is a good idea in principle, but then it runs
straight into the brick wall of English rugby reality. We have a
handful of yo-yo clubs. Most seasons, relegation is a foregone
conclusion or realistically only affects 2 teams. This season,
Worcs have been awful and are 9 points behind the next worst,
Falcons (guessing the "we want Deano back" people are quieter
now...) who have won three more matches - partly because the
bottom team HAS been scrapping for those losing bonus points and
gotten a few try bonus points.
>
> To save the typing, here's something I wrote back in Feb:
>
> The other problem is pro rugby is largely unsustainable in its
current format and there's barely any teams outside of the
current Premiership who can make a real go of it. It requires a
huge amount of money and it loses a huge amount of money if you
don't have your own ground and a big fanbase, and COVID has only
made that much worse. Ealing, for example, might be the latest
moneybags club trying to make it in the big time, but they're
watched by three men and a dog and would have to borrow another
ground. The division immediately below the Premiership is
stocked with teams who don't want to get promoted, which speaks
volumes.
>
--- End Quote ---
Yes Worcester did run them close at the weekend, but let's not
pretend this is a normal season, with empty stadiums etc. I
don't think it's something you could genuinely say has happened
over the last 10 yrs.
Regarding the point about foregone conclusions and only
affecting a couple of teams.. what difference does that make?
Though that certainly wasn't the case the last couple of seasons
(Sarries aside). There are four points of particular interest as
you reach the business end of the season... Winning the league,
making the playoffs, champs cup qualification and then staying
in the prem. It gives every team and more importantly, fans of
every team, something to hope for and to focus on when it's
clear which bracket of the table they fall into in the last 8 or
so weeks. Very often, there are only a couple of teams that look
realistically good enough to win the league, so I don't see why
it should be of any less interest just because the contest is
happening at the other end of the table.
I agree regarding the current state of teams in the championship
and borrowing grounds etc. but feel that's more an issue of
teams trying to run before they can walk. They try to go for the
quick win rather than the long game. Every new money club has a
5 yr plan, rather than a 10-15yr plan. Exeter went about things
the right way, but, until the point they got promoted and
cemented their place, who honestly saw it coming a few years
before hand?! So, really, who are we to decide who should and
shouldn't be promoted! A big part of the issue is how the RFU
treats the Championship.
Re player effort levels in dead rubbers.. I'm not suggesting for
a second that teams approach games differently. However, the
subconscious mind is far more relevant in that situation than
the conscious one! Mentally, the urgency won't be there. All
teams try to win, but it's just not the same when your league
survival depends on it.
#Post#: 64783--------------------------------------------------
Re: Why rugby is benefitting from ringfencing
DIR By: JammyGit
Date: April 28, 2021, 7:00 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote ---
> Yes Worcester did run them close at the weekend, but let's not
pretend this is a normal season, with empty stadiums etc. I
don't think it's something you could genuinely say has happened
over the last 10 yrs.
--- End Quote ---
I'm not sure what you mean by this. My point is that Worcs
haven't just rolled over, despite relegation being off the
table. I completely agree that this season and last season are
bizarre - hence my quotes talking about the previous seasons.
--- Quote ---
> Regarding the point about foregone conclusions and only
affecting a couple of teams.. what difference does that make?
Though that certainly wasn't the case the last couple of seasons
(Sarries aside). There are four points of particular interest as
you reach the business end of the season... Winning the league,
making the playoffs, champs cup qualification and then staying
in the prem. It gives every team and more importantly, fans of
every team, something to hope for and to focus on when it's
clear which bracket of the table they fall into in the last 8 or
so weeks. Very often, there are only a couple of teams that look
realistically good enough to win the league, so I don't see why
it should be of any less interest just because the contest is
happening at the other end of the table.
--- End Quote ---
Well, the difference it makes is fairly straightforward: in most
cases only one or two teams are actually fighting for survival,
so it's not much interest to the rest of the league - usually
the bottom team is terrible, so there's very little difference
between "just bad" and "not trying as much as they could" to the
naked eye. The relegation battle towards the end of the season
very, very rarely concerns teams outside of the bottom two,
there's usually clear daylight between the worst and second
worst. Which means that you usually get a number of teams who
genuinely have little to play for except the outside shot of
stealing 6th place for a European slot. It's never a big furball
at the bottom of the table.
You said it wasn't the case in the last couple of seasons;
obviously last season was bizarre, but the season before that,
Newcastle were 10 points off the 2nd worst team, having scored 1
try bonus point all season. Tigers definitely flirted with
relegation, not going to argue otherwise, but Newcastle were
fifteen points behind 10th place. They lost 5 in a row at the
end of the season, and won 3 in the 11 matches of the second
half of the season. They were always going to be relegated.
The season before, London Irish ended up 14 points behind Worcs
in 11th. Similar story. Most seasons, it's really clear just who
the fall guy is going to be; if we're lucky, another team is
equally bad and there might be an actual fight to avoid
relegation. But it won't really include more than those 2 at
most.
On Exeter - they had been building for years before hand.
They've always had big crowds, and always been seen as the big
power in the division just waiting to make the step up. I think
it's important to note that I would not exclude any club forever
- any ringfencing should involve constant reviews, and the
initial set of clubs should be as broad as feasibly possible -
but my point is there's no mass of clubs who could be good
Premiership sides if only they had the chance. Most of them are
struggling to make a go of the Championship and have neither the
players, the ground, or the funding to compete.
As for trying harder to win, I don't know how much that helps.
Look at us - Gustard had us terrified of losing. The pressure of
relegation can really inhibit teams. Play with more freedom and
you might just win more games.
#Post#: 64801--------------------------------------------------
Re: Why rugby is benefitting from ringfencing
DIR By: marlowish
Date: April 28, 2021, 8:37 am
---------------------------------------------------------
I have zero interest in watching games where defence is not
relevant. Defence is part of sport. If I wanted to see high
scores I would watch basketball.
#Post#: 64804--------------------------------------------------
Re: Why rugby is benefitting from ringfencing
DIR By: QuincyJones
Date: April 28, 2021, 9:16 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Understand what you're getting at JG, but as an example, even a
team being 10pts adrift at the bottom of the table takes it to
the final two games of the season to pull something out of the
bag. It might not often happen but creates interest.
I think the reason Worc haven't rolled over is because they have
a new head coach and players are looking to impress, however,
it's not very often you see last running 3rd so close. So I
don't think too much can be read into it and wouldn't expect it
to happen much again in the future.
The bottom line for me is, I don't want more tries, unless they
mean something. I think there are plenty that see it the same
way. Ring-fencing has its short-term merits but long-term I
think it'd be a disaster in terms of growing interest in the
game.
#Post#: 64808--------------------------------------------------
Re: Why rugby is benefitting from ringfencing
DIR By: JammyGit
Date: April 28, 2021, 9:28 am
---------------------------------------------------------
That makes sense. I like the increase in attacking rugby as I
think it makes for better rugby players and teams, but I do
agree it should always be competitive. We just disagree on
whether it's less competitive with no relegation!
#Post#: 64812--------------------------------------------------
Re: Why rugby is benefitting from ringfencing
DIR By: Monte
Date: April 28, 2021, 10:08 am
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To my mind harder pitches makes a big difference
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