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#Post#: 50721--------------------------------------------------
Re: First club to fold?
DIR By: poorfour
Date: September 29, 2020, 12:17 pm
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Quick one re Brentford Stadium. The stadium itself is pretty
hemmed in, but there's a large open area across the railway
bridge that I guess will be the station carpark. On weekdays
it'll be full of commuters but I would imagine it will be usable
for fans on matchdays.
Of the other teams, from memory Bristol, Exeter, Sale, Worcester
and Wasps have out(ish) of town stadia with parking (for
Worcester they use the carparks of offices on the industrial
estate, which may be an option for LI). Leicester and Newcastle
are more central but have big car parks.
Saints I am not sure about. Bath (I think), Gloucester and
Saracens are a bit stuffed because the nearest parking is a
decent walk away.
#Post#: 50722--------------------------------------------------
Re: First club to fold?
DIR By: JammyGit
Date: September 29, 2020, 12:18 pm
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--- Quote from: Fursty link ---
>
> Sure - global life expectancy is heavily correlated with
economic growth, particularly in developing nations. The global
economic downturn will reduce the global growth in life
expectancy far more than this virus, deaths need to be looked at
in the light of life expectancy lost rather than as an absolute
number.
>
> for context the average age of people to have died from COVID
in the UK is 82 (average life expectancy in Scotland is 77).
>
--- End Quote ---
That's a lot of handwaving and not many actual numbers.
You're ignoring a lot here:
1) A lot more people get the virus and have a really bad time of
it but don't die
2) Without lockdown, vastly more people will get infected
meaning vastly more vulnerable people getting infected and/or
dying
3) Ill people can't work
4) Lots of deaths tend to be not conducive to economic growth
either
5) Lots of vulnerable people are of working ages
6) "Long Covid" is a thing.
I'm more than happy to read actual analysis of the public health
impact of lockdown vs the public health impact of no lockdown,
if you have any handy. The choice isn't "lockdown or a healthy
economy", though. The economy is in for a hammering whatever we
do.
#Post#: 50726--------------------------------------------------
Re: First club to fold?
DIR By: MadMax
Date: September 29, 2020, 1:37 pm
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Personally I'm more than happy not to read an actual analysis of
the public health impact of lockdown vs the public health impact
of no lockdown as it would only be yet another opinion and
frankly I'm getting a little fed up with so many threads turning
into arguments about coronavirus.
I appreciate others will have different views.
#Post#: 50730--------------------------------------------------
Re: First club to fold?
DIR By: dr_miles
Date: September 29, 2020, 2:00 pm
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It's a fair point.
So, assuming there are no crowds and the government doesn't prop
up individual clubs, what options do Quins have?
#Post#: 50734--------------------------------------------------
Re: First club to fold?
DIR By: JammyGit
Date: September 29, 2020, 2:50 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: MadMax link ---
>
> Personally I'm more than happy not to read an actual analysis
of the public health impact of lockdown vs the public health
impact of no lockdown as it would only be yet another opinion
and frankly I'm getting a little fed up with so many threads
turning into arguments about coronavirus.
>
> I appreciate others will have different views.
>
--- End Quote ---
I'm not looking for opinion, I'm looking for facts to base
opinion on (and presumably the facts that Fursty's based their
opinion on). So when I say actual analysis, I mean something
official / produced by people with relevant knowledge.
We can't really talk about what the response to COVID should be
without knowing these things.
#Post#: 50736--------------------------------------------------
Re: First club to fold?
DIR By: Fursty
Date: September 29, 2020, 3:03 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: JammyGit link ---
>
> That's a lot of handwaving and not many actual numbers.
>
> You're ignoring a lot here:
>
> 1) A lot more people get the virus and have a really bad time
of it but don't die
> 2) Without lockdown, vastly more people will get infected
meaning vastly more vulnerable people getting infected and/or
dying
> 3) Ill people can't work
> 4) Lots of deaths tend to be not conducive to economic growth
either
> 5) Lots of vulnerable people are of working ages
> 6) "Long Covid" is a thing.
>
> I'm more than happy to read actual analysis of the public
health impact of lockdown vs the public health impact of no
lockdown, if you have any handy. The choice isn't "lockdown or a
healthy economy", though. The economy is in for a hammering
whatever we do.
>
--- End Quote ---
1) Lots of people have suffered mental health issues having been
forces to isolate for months on end - there’s no good outcome to
responding to the virus
2) Firstly I’m not advocating no measures whatsoever - but
secondly and more importantly lockdowns only defer the
consequences, they don’t deal with the problem.
3) the main symptom of COVID is not knowing you have it
4) the vast vast majority of people dying are economically
inactive
5) vulnerable people should shield - why should everyone else
suffer in their behalf
6) it’s not uncommon for a few people to have a severe long term
to any virus - we’ve known about ME for years.
But back to the numbers point - less than 0.02% of the world’s
population has been killed by COVID (most of whom were elderly)
and yet we’ve seen most major economies GDP fall by the region
of 8-12 ( even temporarily) - given the heavy correlation
between GDP and life expectancy - it stands to reason that the
economic damage will harm life expectancy more than the virus.
#Post#: 50738--------------------------------------------------
Re: First club to fold?
DIR By: Fursty
Date: September 29, 2020, 3:24 pm
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And Jammy I should add that whilst the correlation between GDP
and economic growth is well documented, it’s also non linear and
so I’m not about to write a model that demonstrates the impact
on the UK. However on a global level, a 100% increase in GDP
roughly gives a 5 year increase from in life expectancy,
therefore even if we assumed that everyone who died with COVID
was a toddler there is clear evidence that the global slowdown
is far more harmful than the virus.
#Post#: 50747--------------------------------------------------
Re: First club to fold?
DIR By: JammyGit
Date: September 30, 2020, 3:19 am
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I'm not asking you to model anything. I'm asking you for links
to the science and research that you've based your understanding
on on how many deaths we can expect from a financial crash due
to lockdown rather than financial issues due to not lockdown.
Side note: weirdly enough, when GDP goes up, deaths go up too:
HTML https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/10/the-relationship-between-gdp-and-life-expectancy-isnt-as-simple-as-you-might-think
However I think you're really missing the point I'm making. Mass
deaths - even if the majority of those dying aren't working age
- will hammer the precious economy. Old people buy stuff. Old
people have family and friends who will be impacted by this. Old
people flooding the hospitals will impact younger people needing
the same hospitals. All of my points are about the economic
impact of not doing lockdowns and how COVID is going to hurt us
economically one way or the other.
The long and short of it is: I need some sort of factual basis
for the claim that "far more than a million people around the
world will die early because of the economic damage caused by
overly aggressive lockdowns".
#Post#: 50752--------------------------------------------------
Re: First club to fold?
DIR By: Mayor West
Date: September 30, 2020, 3:34 am
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I notice that last week it was reported that we have the oldest
population in history with 1300ish being 100 or older.
There is a lot of fact based or real science (data for
things that have actually happened) out there to study from
previous epidemics. Also the figures so far from this one. It’s
interesting stuff and I can’t help thinking that there has been
a lot of speculation and wild prediction and not enough notice
taken of previous figures.
#Post#: 50758--------------------------------------------------
Re: First club to fold?
DIR By: deadlyfrom5yardsout
Date: September 30, 2020, 4:33 am
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So, what does the future hold for Quins or any of the other Pro
Clubs? Absolutely no idea but I will still be supporting them.
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