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       #Post#: 50689--------------------------------------------------
       Re: First club to fold?
   DIR By: honkytonk
       Date: September 29, 2020, 5:40 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       --- Quote from: dr_miles link ---
       >
       > What are the rates of infection/death in those countries?
       >
       --- End Quote ---
       From looking at that map, not a huge difference from us (if I
       have read it correctly)
       #Post#: 50708--------------------------------------------------
       Re: First club to fold?
   DIR By: dr_miles
       Date: September 29, 2020, 7:26 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       This paints a very bleak picture, but doesn't have an answer. I
       don't think that anyone has an answer.
  HTML https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/sep/29/rugby-union-players-fear-for-future-as-covid-typhoon-sweeps-through-sport
       #Post#: 50710--------------------------------------------------
       Re: First club to fold?
   DIR By: honkytonk
       Date: September 29, 2020, 7:54 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Just read online, Dartford fc are able to stream their game at
       the weekend, to 40 (I think) fans in their club house.  This is
       a home game and the fans will be sitting in the bar, about 100
       yards from where the game is taking place!!! Why not just let
       them in the ground!! its madness
       #Post#: 50711--------------------------------------------------
       Re: First club to fold?
   DIR By: dr_miles
       Date: September 29, 2020, 8:03 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       --- Quote from: honkytonk link ---
       >
       > Just read online, Dartford fc are able to stream their game at
       the weekend, to 40 (I think) fans in their club house.  This is
       a home game and the fans will be sitting in the bar, about 100
       yards from where the game is taking place!!! Why not just let
       them in the ground!! its madness
       >
       --- End Quote ---
       There are a lot of people who have disregarded the rules
       throughout the pandemic, and therefore if you have any situation
       where you let in some fans to a game then there will be other
       teams who will point to it and say "what about them", and if the
       limit is 40 people then there will be someone who will say "1
       more won't make any difference", and the whole thing collapses.
       Even when the Quins game allowed spectators in, the police still
       had to ask people without tickets to stay away. The police don't
       have the resources to manage attendances at sporting events
       across the country.
       It has to be a controlled and managed process, with the
       necessary enforcement. Relying on "common sense" will not get us
       anywhere.
       #Post#: 50712--------------------------------------------------
       Re: First club to fold?
   DIR By: honkytonk
       Date: September 29, 2020, 8:07 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       But if that is the case, how do you know more than 40 will not
       turn up to the club house!!!
       #Post#: 50714--------------------------------------------------
       Re: First club to fold?
   DIR By: poorfour
       Date: September 29, 2020, 8:32 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       --- Quote from: dr_miles link ---
       >
       > Other industries and workplaces can put in measures to
       prevent/reduce the transmission of infections (working from
       home, making workplaces safe, table service in pubs etc.).
       Sports stadia cannot, they rely on "getting back to normal"
       since you have people travelling together on public transport,
       then mingling and sitting closely together in the ground.
       >
       > If this situation continues then industries that cannot adapt
       to it will fail, and that may include some professional sports
       organisations.
       >
       --- End Quote ---
       That's making some assumptions about sports stadia that I don't
       think hold up.
       For the Bath game, people were encouraged not to travel by
       public transport and asked to arrive at staggered intervals to
       spread the load. Car parking was available and if attendance
       stays around 3000 people there's potentially capacity for a much
       higher proportion of supporters to drive than normal.
       Entrance, seating and exit were socially distanced, and the food
       and drink delivery model worked pretty well and reduced the risk
       that people would break social distancing. Mask wearing
       compliance could have been a bit better, but for the most part I
       would say I was exposed to fewer people for a shorter period of
       time during the game than I would have been doing a large
       supermarket shop.
       There's a big difference between being "an industry that cannot
       adapt to it" and "an industry whose efforts to adapt to it are
       being constrained by (seemingly arbitrary) policy".
       Quins (and most other clubs) have historically lost around
       £500k-1m per annum, but they are losing £400k per game played
       without crowds (versus £50k profit on the Bath game). It was a
       pretty impressive effort to get the crowds back for Bath and the
       other pilot games, but now they're being restricted from doing
       that for reasons that aren't particularly clear. I can't see
       much more the clubs can do to shore up their revenues. It's not
       as if BT and Sky are going to be handing out big new contracts.
       I'm trying to be objective and look at the numbers as much as
       possible. The countervailing view seems to be based on the idea
       that professional sportsmen are quite well paid and clubs are
       mostly owned by rich people who can afford to take on losses
       that effectively double the losses they've underwritten for 20
       years in a single season. However much you might want to inflict
       some financial damage on Nigel Wray, that's a big enough hit
       that it's likely to damage the sport as a whole severely.
       There's also a question of cost/benefit analysis. How many jobs
       does supporting sport, or the arts or any other sector protect
       relative to what it costs? If we do let it - or part of it -
       fail, what is the long term cost of what we lose and of
       rebuilding? To take an extreme example what is the cost to the
       economy and public health if the RFU goes into administration
       and the 2m registered adult players no longer have the framework
       or insurance to play? What happens to the mini and youth rugby
       setups?
       From what I can see the relative cost of ensuring our sports
       survive is fairly small in the context of the overall support
       package, and worth doing because of the long tail of impacts it
       has beyond the clubs themselves.
       #Post#: 50716--------------------------------------------------
       Re: First club to fold?
   DIR By: dr_miles
       Date: September 29, 2020, 10:30 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       --- Quote from: poorfour link ---
       >
       > That's making some assumptions about sports stadia that I
       don't think hold up.
       >
       > For the Bath game, people were encouraged not to travel by
       public transport and asked to arrive at staggered intervals to
       spread the load. Car parking was available and if attendance
       stays around 3000 people there's potentially capacity for a much
       higher proportion of supporters to drive than normal.
       >
       > Entrance, seating and exit were socially distanced, and the
       food and drink delivery model worked pretty well and reduced the
       risk that people would break social distancing. Mask wearing
       compliance could have been a bit better, but for the most part I
       would say I was exposed to fewer people for a shorter period of
       time during the game than I would have been doing a large
       supermarket shop.
       >
       > There's a big difference between being "an industry that
       cannot adapt to it" and "an industry whose efforts to adapt to
       it are being constrained by (seemingly arbitrary) policy".
       >
       > Quins (and most other clubs) have historically lost around
       £500k-1m per annum, but they are losing £400k per game played
       without crowds (versus £50k profit on the Bath game). It was a
       pretty impressive effort to get the crowds back for Bath and the
       other pilot games, but now they're being restricted from doing
       that for reasons that aren't particularly clear. I can't see
       much more the clubs can do to shore up their revenues. It's not
       as if BT and Sky are going to be handing out big new contracts.
       >
       > I'm trying to be objective and look at the numbers as much as
       possible. The countervailing view seems to be based on the idea
       that professional sportsmen are quite well paid and clubs are
       mostly owned by rich people who can afford to take on losses
       that effectively double the losses they've underwritten for 20
       years in a single season. However much you might want to inflict
       some financial damage on Nigel Wray, that's a big enough hit
       that it's likely to damage the sport as a whole severely.
       >
       > There's also a question of cost/benefit analysis. How many
       jobs does supporting sport, or the arts or any other sector
       protect relative to what it costs? If we do let it - or part of
       it - fail, what is the long term cost of what we lose and of
       rebuilding? To take an extreme example what is the cost to the
       economy and public health if the RFU goes into administration
       and the 2m registered adult players no longer have the framework
       or insurance to play? What happens to the mini and youth rugby
       setups?
       >
       > From what I can see the relative cost of ensuring our sports
       survive is fairly small in the context of the overall support
       package, and worth doing because of the long tail of impacts it
       has beyond the clubs themselves.
       >
       --- End Quote ---
       I posted a link to an article recently that articulated better
       than I can, but there is certainly a better case for financially
       supporting the RFU and funding grass roots clubs than there is
       for supporting the professional game where all the clubs lose
       money anyway.
       My point around the management of stadia is not specific to the
       Stoop. For example, what about London Irish and their new
       ground? I would bet that there's not a huge amount of parking
       there. (Before anyone jumps on this - this is an example - I
       have not been there) Are you then in a situation where you are
       limiting a club attendance based on how safely people can travel
       to it? Or are you restricting access to only people who have
       cars?
       And I appreciate that these aren't your numbers, but how does a
       £400k loss turn around to a £50k profit with a crowd of 3000?
       That implies that everyone attending pays £150, ignoring the
       additional costs involved in putting the game on.
       #Post#: 50717--------------------------------------------------
       Re: First club to fold?
   DIR By: honkytonk
       Date: September 29, 2020, 10:39 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       I thought he said 30k profit??  I guess not having to refund
       3000 tickets helps!!  I wondered if "loss" meant losing out on
       the money for the game we would have made, not actual money we
       lost (as in paid out)??
       #Post#: 50719--------------------------------------------------
       Re: First club to fold?
   DIR By: poorfour
       Date: September 29, 2020, 11:52 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       You're right - it's not entirely clear how those numbers work.
       They used to reckon on £300k of net income per home game, which
       is about £200 per head if we're near capacity. I'm guessing that
       the hospitality suites make up a lot of that, but I wouldn't be
       surprised if the typical attendee spends over £100 once you add
       up ticket + food + drink + merch.
       #Post#: 50720--------------------------------------------------
       Re: First club to fold?
   DIR By: Fursty
       Date: September 29, 2020, 12:10 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       --- Quote from: JammyGit link ---
       >
       > Can I see the calculations on this one?
       >
       --- End Quote ---
       Sure - global life expectancy is heavily correlated with
       economic growth, particularly in developing nations. The global
       economic downturn will reduce the global growth in life
       expectancy far more than this virus, deaths need to be looked at
       in the light of life expectancy lost rather than as an absolute
       number.
       for context the average age of people to have died from COVID in
       the UK is 82 (average life expectancy in Scotland is 77).
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