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#Post#: 50646--------------------------------------------------
Re: First club to fold?
DIR By: Domestos
Date: September 29, 2020, 3:04 am
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--- Quote from: honkytonk link ---
>
> 29 countries in Europe are allowing fans into sports (in some
shape or form), and more around the world.
>
--- End Quote ---
And the point you are making is - what precisely?
#Post#: 50647--------------------------------------------------
Re: First club to fold?
DIR By: honkytonk
Date: September 29, 2020, 3:05 am
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--- Quote from: Domestos link ---
>
> And the point you are making is - what precisely?
>
--- End Quote ---
Precisely, how comes they can manage it and we cannot.
#Post#: 50650--------------------------------------------------
Re: First club to fold?
DIR By: Saintquin
Date: September 29, 2020, 3:17 am
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--- Quote from: honkytonk link ---
>
> Precisely, how comes they can manage it and we cannot.
>
--- End Quote ---
Though at the moment we don't know at what cost.
#Post#: 50651--------------------------------------------------
Re: First club to fold?
DIR By: honkytonk
Date: September 29, 2020, 3:25 am
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--- Quote from: Saintquin link ---
>
> Though at the moment we don't know at what cost.
>
--- End Quote ---
That is true, although some of these countries have been doing
this for a while, not just the last week or so. Dalrymple said
himself last night that after the test event against Bath, there
have been no indications that there has been any "Break out" as
such related to it.
#Post#: 50655--------------------------------------------------
Re: First club to fold?
DIR By: JammyGit
Date: September 29, 2020, 3:45 am
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--- Quote from: Fursty link ---
>
> Far far more than a million people around the world will die
early because of the economic damage caused by overly aggressive
lockdowns.
>
--- End Quote ---
Can I see the calculations on this one?
#Post#: 50663--------------------------------------------------
Re: First club to fold?
DIR By: poorfour
Date: September 29, 2020, 4:36 am
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--- Quote from: dr_miles link ---
>
> A million people around the world have died because of this
disease, and that’s with all the restrictions in place. Ther
won’t be crowds at rugby for a minimum of 6 months, but that
could stretch to a couple of years. How long would you propose
that the government support any sports? 6 months, a year?
>
--- End Quote ---
How long are we willing to support other industries and other
jobs? What's the scientific basis for allowing people in pubs
but not in sports venues? How long is the different handling of
the two going to persist? What is the long term cost to the
country of allowing a professional sport to collapse?
In partial answer to that last one, RWC 2015 added just under
£1bn to the UK economy. The UK can be reasonably confident of
hosting the RWC once every 16 years or so, because World Rugby
needs to go to the UK or France every other RWC to make its own
economics work. The 6 Nations add £375m to the economies of the
participating countries, of which the UK probably takes at least
half. I couldn't find a number for the Autumn Internationals,
but given that each team will host 4 matches rather than 2-3,
it's probably worth around 50% more than the 6 Nations, say
£250m.
So international rugby alone is probably worth around £400m per
year to the UK economy.
The cost of supporting it for a year is probably a little over
half that (at most), and a tiny fraction of the overall support
package, as I pointed out above.
With 3,000 supporters in the stadium, which Laurie Dalrymple
confirmed last night hasn't led to a spike in cases, Quins did a
little better than break even on the day, but they are not even
being allowed to repeat that. If there is a clear justification
for it then I would like to see it. What's the evidence that
shutting well-run stadia is the right thing to do? (As opposed
to the evidence that this Government - even allowing for the
unprecedented situation - is just making shit up as it goes
along)
#Post#: 50673--------------------------------------------------
Re: First club to fold?
DIR By: never sleep
Date: September 29, 2020, 5:02 am
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I think that the current more drastic measures are a good idea
at the moment. There is a clear spike in the cases.
You need to give the current 'rule of 6' a chance to change
direction of the curve.
Also, there are clearly challenges getting the right number of
tests to the right place and getting them processed in time.
These is after all an unusual and constantly evolving situation.
But, the result of this is that we don't know how bad (or not so
bad) the current situation actually is.
I would hope that the trial events will start again once that
the curve moves again in the right direction.
There are very few reliable statistics that show what the actual
situation is - but, there does seem to be an improvement in
England since 21st September. I just think they need to give it
another week or two to see if this trend continues.
#Post#: 50683--------------------------------------------------
Re: First club to fold?
DIR By: dr_miles
Date: September 29, 2020, 5:27 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: honkytonk link ---
>
> 29 countries in Europe are allowing fans into sports (in some
shape or form), and more around the world.
>
--- End Quote ---
What are the rates of infection/death in those countries?
#Post#: 50685--------------------------------------------------
Re: First club to fold?
DIR By: never sleep
Date: September 29, 2020, 5:32 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Here is a good map that shows the current situation in Europe
HTML https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/styles/is_full/public/images/w37_38_COVID_subnational_Last_2week.png?itok=PVN0hNeD
#Post#: 50686--------------------------------------------------
Re: First club to fold?
DIR By: dr_miles
Date: September 29, 2020, 5:35 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: poorfour link ---
>
> How long are we willing to support other industries and other
jobs? What's the scientific basis for allowing people in pubs
but not in sports venues? How long is the different handling of
the two going to persist? What is the long term cost to the
country of allowing a professional sport to collapse?
>
> In partial answer to that last one, RWC 2015 added just under
£1bn to the UK economy. The UK can be reasonably confident of
hosting the RWC once every 16 years or so, because World Rugby
needs to go to the UK or France every other RWC to make its own
economics work. The 6 Nations add £375m to the economies of the
participating countries, of which the UK probably takes at least
half. I couldn't find a number for the Autumn Internationals,
but given that each team will host 4 matches rather than 2-3,
it's probably worth around 50% more than the 6 Nations, say
£250m.
>
> So international rugby alone is probably worth around £400m
per year to the UK economy.
>
> The cost of supporting it for a year is probably a little over
half that (at most), and a tiny fraction of the overall support
package, as I pointed out above.
>
> With 3,000 supporters in the stadium, which Laurie Dalrymple
confirmed last night hasn't led to a spike in cases, Quins did a
little better than break even on the day, but they are not even
being allowed to repeat that. If there is a clear justification
for it then I would like to see it. What's the evidence that
shutting well-run stadia is the right thing to do? (As opposed
to the evidence that this Government - even allowing for the
unprecedented situation - is just making **** up as it goes
along)
>
--- End Quote ---
Other industries and workplaces can put in measures to
prevent/reduce the transmission of infections (working from
home, making workplaces safe, table service in pubs etc.).
Sports stadia cannot, they rely on "getting back to normal"
since you have people travelling together on public transport,
then mingling and sitting closely together in the ground.
If this situation continues then industries that cannot adapt to
it will fail, and that may include some professional sports
organisations.
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