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#Post#: 50217--------------------------------------------------
Re: The end of rugby?
DIR By: Domestos
Date: September 24, 2020, 5:54 am
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--- Quote from: JammyGit link ---
>
> Is there any reason you chose 2018? 2020 is the current year
and is the only time we've had these measures in place that
reduce death rates from all kinds of things.
>
> For a while there thanks to lockdown and other things, COVID
wasn't killing many people. That's great! That doesn't mean it's
"only responsible for 1% of deaths" and therefore nothing to
worry about.
>
--- End Quote ---
2018 was the latest year I could find statistics on.
I have no agenda on this matter. At the moment, very roughly 1%
of those dying, are dying with Covid.
Since people starting dying from Covid at the beginning of
March, some 41,000 have died out of, roughly, 320,000 normal
deaths. That means that in approximately 200 days, 13% of those
dying have died from/with Covid.
Apologies if this is rather blunt and offends anyone.
#Post#: 50218--------------------------------------------------
Re: The end of rugby?
DIR By: Mr_B
Date: September 24, 2020, 6:07 am
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--- Quote from: Domestos link ---
>
> 2018 was the latest year I could find statistics on.
>
> I have no agenda on this matter. At the moment, very roughly
1% of those dying, are dying with Covid.
>
> Since people starting dying from Covid at the beginning of
March, some 41,000 have died out of, roughly, 320,000 normal
deaths. That means that in approximately 200 days, 1.3% of those
dying have died from/with Covid.
>
> Apologies if this is rather blunt and offends anyone.
>
--- End Quote ---
might be my poor maths but surely 41,000 deaths out of a total
320,000 deaths from covid is more like 12.8%?
#Post#: 50219--------------------------------------------------
Re: The end of rugby?
DIR By: JammyGit
Date: September 24, 2020, 6:13 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Domestos link ---
>
> 2018 was the latest year I could find statistics on.
>
> I have no agenda on this matter. At the moment, very roughly
1% of those dying, are dying with Covid.
>
> Since people starting dying from Covid at the beginning of
March, some 41,000 have died out of, roughly, 320,000 normal
deaths. That means that in approximately 200 days, 1.3% of those
dying have died from/with Covid.
>
> Apologies if this is rather blunt and offends anyone.
>
--- End Quote ---
Well, I gave you actual numbers. So here:
HTML https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/static-reports/mortality-surveillance/excess-mortality-in-england-latest.html
Since 20th March, 271k people have died. There have been 53,318
excess deaths; 49k of them were people with COVID-19.
49K of 271K is not 1.3%. It's 18%
41k of your 320K is also not 1.3%. It's just under 13%.
And it's not just deaths. We've had 136,369 people hospitalised
thanks to COVID. It does horrible things to people, even those
who survive. "Long Covid" is a thing.
We have had a huge lockdown, we implemented major measure
that've seen a massive drop-off in deaths from other causes, and
we still have had anywhere from 45k-53k deaths thanks to COVID.
#Post#: 50220--------------------------------------------------
Re: The end of rugby?
DIR By: Domestos
Date: September 24, 2020, 6:14 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Mr_B link ---
>
> might be my poor maths but surely 41,000 deaths out of a total
320,000 deaths from covid is more like 12.8%?
>
--- End Quote ---
You are absolutely right. My apologies. Believe it or not, I
realised my mistake, came back to the forum to change it before
anyone spotted it, but you were too quick for me.
#Post#: 50221--------------------------------------------------
Re: The end of rugby?
DIR By: Domestos
Date: September 24, 2020, 6:16 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: JammyGit link ---
>
> Well, I gave you actual numbers. So here:
HTML https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/static-reports/mortality-surveillance/excess-mortality-in-england-latest.html
>
> Since 20th March, 271k people have died. There have been
53,318 excess deaths; 49k of them were people with COVID-19.
>
> 49K of 271K is not 1.3%. It's 18%
> 41k of your 320K is also not 1.3%. It's just under 13%.
>
> And it's not just deaths. We've had 136,369 people
hospitalised thanks to COVID. It does horrible things to people,
even those who survive. "Long Covid" is a thing.
>
> We have had a huge lockdown, we implemented major measure
that've seen a massive drop-off in deaths from other causes, and
we still have had anywhere from 45k-53k deaths thanks to COVID.
>
--- End Quote ---
Yes, you are right. Sorry. Our posts crossed. I am not trying to
prove anything one way or the other. It is a horrible disease.
#Post#: 50222--------------------------------------------------
Re: The end of rugby?
DIR By: JammyGit
Date: September 24, 2020, 6:22 am
---------------------------------------------------------
OK, fair enough!
I do worry that the focus on death rate - which is bad enough,
don't get me wrong - also ignores the reality of what happens
when people get it "severely" but not fatally. That's a big
batch of people left with possibly permanent lung and heart
damage, and more with the "Long Covid" symptoms:
--- Quote ---
> Writing in the Journal of the American Medical Association, a
team of researchers from Italy reported that nearly nine in 10
patients (87 per cent) discharged from a hospital in Rome were
still experiencing at least one symptom 60 days after onset.
>
> They found that 13 per cent of the 143 people were completely
free of any symptoms, while 32 per cent had one or two symptoms,
and 55 per cent had three or more.
--- End Quote ---
plus those who weren't hospitalised but just can't shake it:
--- Quote ---
> “Profound fatigue” was a common symptom in most people with
long covid, she said, but added that a wide range of other
symptoms included cough, breathlessness, muscle and body aches,
and chest heaviness or pressure, but also skin rashes,
palpitations, fever, headache, diarrhoea, and pins and needles.
“A very common feature is the relapsing, remitting nature of the
illness, where you feel as though you’ve recovered, then it hits
you back,” she said.
>
> Nick Peters added to this definition by highlighting a
“distinction between very sick people who have recovered to an
extent and [and have been] left with some impact of their severe
sickness, versus those who had a relatively mild sickness from
the start, in whom it is ongoing.”
>
> Alwan described the fluctuations of her own illness: “It’s a
constant cycle of disappointment, not just to you but people
around you, who really want you to recover.”
>
--- End Quote ---
(
HTML https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3489
)
These are not things that society can handle en masse.
#Post#: 50223--------------------------------------------------
Re: The end of rugby?
DIR By: KiltedQuin
Date: September 24, 2020, 6:46 am
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--- Quote from: Yareet link ---
>
> I’m pretty sure they all would’ve died. Most people tend to.
>
--- End Quote ---
Everybody dies Yareet but it's when they die that's important.
The vast majority of these people would not have died if they
had not contracted COVID. COVID has caused a large number of
additional deaths due to COVID infection. There has probably
been a number of other additional and avoidable deaths due the
effects of the pandemic: suicides, delays in treatment, people
not attending hospital when needed, etc.
#Post#: 50224--------------------------------------------------
Re: The end of rugby?
DIR By: honkytonk
Date: September 24, 2020, 7:05 am
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There are also alot of people dying with Covid, not because of
it, but still being counted as a Covid death. That I find
ridiculous. Man gets hit by a bus, dies. Turns out he has
Covid - Covid death (which it isnt). Im not doubting anything
else said above etc, but I find that stupid tbh.
#Post#: 50229--------------------------------------------------
Re: The end of rugby?
DIR By: poorfour
Date: September 24, 2020, 7:25 am
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This is worth a quick (if scary) read, particularly p8 onwards.
HTML https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/risk-comms-updates/update-36-long-term-symptoms.pdf?sfvrsn=5d3789a6_2
- Over 50% of COVID patients report at least 1 symptom
persisting for more than 14-21 days after diagnosis
- 35% of patients have not returned to good health after 3
weeks, including 20% of healthy 18-34 year olds (meaning that
the proportion among older, less fit people is going to be a
fair bit higher than 35%)
- 40% of people who recovered from SARS still had chronic
fatigue symptoms 3.5 years after being diagnosed.
We can argue about the death rate, though it does seem to be
reducing as we get better at treating the most severe cases. But
the risk of long term health problems is the one that worries
me.
Thought experiment: what if the Government had stuck with its
herd immunity strategy, and COVID turns out to be similar to
SARS with its long term health effects? Let's say we need 50% of
the population to get it (estimates range between 60 and 43%
from a quick scan), and 40% of patients have long term symptoms.
Would you be comfortable with a 1 in 5 risk of long term health
problems if it meant opening up the economy earlier?
#Post#: 50233--------------------------------------------------
Re: The end of rugby?
DIR By: Carbonm
Date: September 24, 2020, 9:53 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: honkytonk link ---
>
> There are also alot of people dying with Covid, not because of
it, but still being counted as a Covid death. That I find
ridiculous. Man gets hit by a bus, dies. Turns out he has
Covid - Covid death (which it isnt). Im not doubting anything
else said above etc, but I find that stupid tbh.
>
--- End Quote ---
but also what about the number of people who died from Covid who
died without having a test? (people who died at home or care
homes before they had testing in place) you could argue the
number could actually be much higher.
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