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#Post#: 9491--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2014 Rafa Garros (French Open): Colloque Printemps (Spring
Symposium)
By: Clay Death Date: February 12, 2014, 5:35 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=masterclass link=topic=357.msg9478#msg9478
date=1392216172]
Nadal is like the hunted beast at Rafael Garros. Everybody
knows he is the favorite every year he plays.
He is one of the top 3 clay court players in history, maybe the
best.
Best of 5 sets on clay is always on his racquet. The only thing
that can stop him is himself if he overplays and gets himself
hurt or exhausted.
He only needs about 15 matches on clay before RG to be ready.
I would not play Madrid if I were in his shoes.
Play Monte-Carlo the week of April 13-20.
Play Barcelona the following week - April 21-27.
Skip Madrid the week of May 4-11.
Play Rome the following week, May 12-18.
Rest a week and get to Roland Garros May 25th, fresh and ready
to win his 9th French Open and 14th slam overall to tie him with
the great Pete Sampras.
Before the clay season, he should limit his hard court play.
Play Indian Wells, singles only. Withdraw from Miami and get
back to Majorca and start practicing on the clay.
If he does all of the above, he can make it to each of the clay
finals, and probably win them all. Then he might have enough
gas to do better at Wimbledon. If he overplays before RG,
either on hard or clay, I think he is risks getting beaten at
RG.
Respectfully,
masterclass
[/quote]
great post general.
I could not agree more.
he is likely to get a few more match than just 15 going into
that final at RG:
1. he will get 6 at RG (going into the final)
2. he may get 4 at rio open. I think he loses to ferru there
while he gradually tries to increase intensity
3. he gets 5 at monte carlo: (he is going to take back monte
carlo this year)
4. he will get 5 in Barcelona: he wins barcelona
5. he will get 5 in rome: he wins rome masters
i am not sure if he is going to skip Madrid. lets assume he
does. that gives him a total of 25 matches on clay going into
the final.
historically----before nadal's reign of terror at rg---winners
there have needed to play 20 matches on clay on the average
going into paris.
I changed the equation for nadal: we might as well count the 6
that he is going to play going into the final.
he is going to be very hard to stop in the final.
#Post#: 9519--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2014 Rafa Garros (French Open): Colloque Printemps (Spring
Symposium)
By: thetruth Date: February 13, 2014, 12:39 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=masterclass link=topic=357.msg9484#msg9484
date=1392221525]
Lady TT, if you hear about someone being bet as even money, that
is 1-1 odds. It usually means they have a great chance of
winning compared to the rest of the field.
From a monetary point of view it means for every dollar (or
whatever currency), you put in, if your pick wins, you get your
dollar back plus another dollar. Bet a dollar get back a total
of 2 dollars. 2 to 1 or 2/1, means put in a dollar and you
get a total of 3 dollars back, your original dollar plus 2
dollars.
So in Rafa's case at 4/5 it means bet 5 dollars and get 9
dollars back, your 5 plus 4.
Djokovic - 19/10 - bet 10 and get 19 back plus your original 10
for a total of 29.
Stan - 25/1 - For every dollar you bet, you get back 25 plus
your dollar. So a $40 bet on Stan would return you $1000 plus
your original $40.
Now how do they decide what the odds are? Usually the bookies
or some authority determine the starting odds. But then as
money is bet, the odds change, reflecting the money bet per
contestant, as compared to the total pool.
In Thoroughbred Horse racing, the sport of kings, I recall the
great Secretariat going off at 1/10 odds, an overwhelming
favorite to win the Triple Crown at the Belmont Stakes, the
third and final leg of the Thoroughbred USA Triple Crown races.
He paid $2.20 for a 2 dollar bet to win in his thrilling record
breaking romp. Or if you had bet $10 you would get $11 dollars
back, 1 dollar plus your original 10.
Here is that race for your viewing pleasure. Set view settings
for HD.
I'll never forget the announcer exclaiming:
"He's moving like a tremendous machine..."
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfCMtaNiMDM
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfCMtaNiMDM
Respectfully,
masterclass
[/quote]
Thank you so much. It's still a little confusing figuring out
how much you would win, math phobia and all. But, it sounds like
the favorite would pay less and longshots would pay more.
If I'm understanding this, Nadal wouldn't pay much considering
he's a favorite, but Nole would pay more if you bet on him, and
Stan would be off the chart.
I used to go to the horse races and put down cheapie bets. It
was exciting even though I didn't know what I was doing.
It seems that if you want to gamble on sports or whatever, you
really need to know what you're doing. Too hard, considering
injuries and all, but at least I have a better understanding.
Thanks again.
#Post#: 14028--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2014 Rafa Garros (French Open): Colloque Printemps (Spring
Symposium)
By: Clay Death Date: April 21, 2014, 6:58 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
anybody see this? Federer believe that he and wawrinka will
challenge nadal for the title at RG:
HTML http://www.stevegtennis.com/2014/04/federer-believes-he-and-wawrinka-will-challenge-nadal-and-djokovic-for-the-french-open-title/
#Post#: 14697--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2014 Rafa Garros (French Open): Colloque Printemps (Spring
Symposium)
By: Clay Death Date: May 14, 2014, 11:09 am
---------------------------------------------------------
this is the big one sports fans.
I am all fired up already.
#Post#: 14730--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2014 Rafa Garros (French Open): Colloque Printemps (Spring
Symposium)
By: thetruth Date: May 15, 2014, 3:16 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Clay Death link=topic=357.msg14697#msg14697
date=1400083756]
this is the big one sports fans.
I am all fired up already.
[/quote]
I kind of figured that. I started laughing what I saw the
thread.
Do you think Rafa will be ready in time?
#Post#: 14774--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2014 Rafa Garros (French Open): Colloque Printemps (Spring
Symposium)
By: masterclass Date: May 16, 2014, 1:21 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Many are asking who are the favorites to win Roland Garros this
year.
Don't delude yourselves.
There is only 1, that's right, [B]ONE[/B], favorite to win at
Roland Garros. ;)
If you don't know who that is, I'm not telling. 8)
The rest will be either fighting for the runner up spot, or
getting in good ground work preparing for Wimbledon, or looking
for a bigger paycheck than usual in whichever round they lose.
:-\
Respectfully,
masterclass
#Post#: 14775--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2014 Rafa Garros (French Open): Colloque Printemps (Spring
Symposium)
By: masterclass Date: May 16, 2014, 1:38 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Clay Death link=topic=357.msg9491#msg9491
date=1392248116]
[quote author=masterclass link=topic=357.msg9478#msg9478
date=1392216172]
Nadal is like the hunted beast at Rafael Garros. Everybody
knows he is the favorite every year he plays.
He is one of the top 3 clay court players in history, maybe the
best.
Best of 5 sets on clay is always on his racquet. The only thing
that can stop him is himself if he overplays and gets himself
hurt or exhausted.
He only needs about 15 matches on clay before RG to be ready.
I would not play Madrid if I were in his shoes.
Play Monte-Carlo the week of April 13-20.
Play Barcelona the following week - April 21-27.
Skip Madrid the week of May 4-11.
Play Rome the following week, May 12-18.
Rest a week and get to Roland Garros May 25th, fresh and ready
to win his 9th French Open and 14th slam overall to tie him with
the great Pete Sampras.
Before the clay season, he should limit his hard court play.
Play Indian Wells, singles only. Withdraw from Miami and get
back to Majorca and start practicing on the clay.
If he does all of the above, he can make it to each of the clay
finals, and probably win them all. Then he might have enough
gas to do better at Wimbledon. If he overplays before RG,
either on hard or clay, I think he is risks getting beaten at
RG.
Respectfully,
masterclass
[/quote]
great post general.
I could not agree more.
he is likely to get a few more match than just 15 going into
that final at RG:
1. he will get 6 at RG (going into the final)
2. he may get 4 at rio open. I think he loses to ferru there
while he gradually tries to increase intensity
3. he gets 5 at monte carlo: (he is going to take back monte
carlo this year)
4. he will get 5 in Barcelona: he wins barcelona
5. he will get 5 in rome: he wins rome masters
i am not sure if he is going to skip Madrid. lets assume he
does. that gives him a total of 25 matches on clay going into
the final.
historically----before nadal's reign of terror at rg---winners
there have needed to play 20 matches on clay on the average
going into paris.
I changed the equation for nadal: we might as well count the 6
that he is going to play going into the final.
he is going to be very hard to stop in the final.
[/quote]
Well, now that time has passed, let's see how many clay matches
Rafa will actually have..
General, I'm not going to count Rio, since he played 2
tournaments on hard court after that and didn't keep practicing
on clay. And his results on clay thereafter show that lack of
preparation.
So that leaves us with:
Monte Carlo: 3
Barcelona: 3
Madrid: 5 (almost had to play here after MC and Barca fiascos)
Rome: 2 so far
RG:
So he has only 13 so far. He must make it to the final in Rome,
which will give him 2 or 3 wins more for 15 or 16 maximum.
That's a bit light historically going into Rafa Garros, but then
as you say, he'll have 6 matches prior to the final, which will
give him 21 or 22 matches going into the final at RG. That
should be enough as long as he makes it to the final. He knows
his way around RG.
Respectfully,
masterclass
#Post#: 14776--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2014 Rafa Garros (French Open): Colloque Printemps (Spring
Symposium)
By: thetruth Date: May 16, 2014, 2:51 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Um guys,I don't know. While I am not that good on the technical
aspects, Rafa seems to be pretty far from a lock this year.
So far, no one looks very good. This has been a patchy clay
court season.
#Post#: 14780--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2014 Rafa Garros (French Open): Colloque Printemps (Spring
Symposium)
By: masterclass Date: May 16, 2014, 4:00 am
---------------------------------------------------------
All true Lady TT. Even if Rafa hasn't impressed, no one else
has either. So in best of 5 on clay, he is still the favorite
to win, but that doesn't mean he will, even though he has only 1
loss there in many many years.
If someone is in his draw that has good endurance and plays at a
good level prior to the QF, and catches Rafa on one of his "off"
days, they can beat him, even in best of 5, because he is light
on matches and not in top form yet.
But I think if he can make it to the semifinal stage, he'll have
20 matches on clay under his belt and will be difficult to beat.
But there is another factor if he makes the final. The pressure
will build to take his 14th major to tie Sampras. We can't
dismiss it.
Respectfully,
masterclass
#Post#: 14785--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2014 Rafa Garros (French Open): Colloque Printemps (Spring
Symposium)
By: Clay Death Date: May 16, 2014, 9:04 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=masterclass link=topic=357.msg14775#msg14775
date=1400222316]
[quote author=Clay Death link=topic=357.msg9491#msg9491
date=1392248116]
[quote author=masterclass link=topic=357.msg9478#msg9478
date=1392216172]
Nadal is like the hunted beast at Rafael Garros. Everybody
knows he is the favorite every year he plays.
He is one of the top 3 clay court players in history, maybe the
best.
Best of 5 sets on clay is always on his racquet. The only thing
that can stop him is himself if he overplays and gets himself
hurt or exhausted.
He only needs about 15 matches on clay before RG to be ready.
I would not play Madrid if I were in his shoes.
Play Monte-Carlo the week of April 13-20.
Play Barcelona the following week - April 21-27.
Skip Madrid the week of May 4-11.
Play Rome the following week, May 12-18.
Rest a week and get to Roland Garros May 25th, fresh and ready
to win his 9th French Open and 14th slam overall to tie him with
the great Pete Sampras.
Before the clay season, he should limit his hard court play.
Play Indian Wells, singles only. Withdraw from Miami and get
back to Majorca and start practicing on the clay.
If he does all of the above, he can make it to each of the clay
finals, and probably win them all. Then he might have enough
gas to do better at Wimbledon. If he overplays before RG,
either on hard or clay, I think he is risks getting beaten at
RG.
Respectfully,
masterclass
[/quote]
great post general.
I could not agree more.
he is likely to get a few more match than just 15 going into
that final at RG:
1. he will get 6 at RG (going into the final)
2. he may get 4 at rio open. I think he loses to ferru there
while he gradually tries to increase intensity
3. he gets 5 at monte carlo: (he is going to take back monte
carlo this year)
4. he will get 5 in Barcelona: he wins barcelona
5. he will get 5 in rome: he wins rome masters
i am not sure if he is going to skip Madrid. lets assume he
does. that gives him a total of 25 matches on clay going into
the final.
historically----before nadal's reign of terror at rg---winners
there have needed to play 20 matches on clay on the average
going into paris.
I changed the equation for nadal: we might as well count the 6
that he is going to play going into the final.
he is going to be very hard to stop in the final.
[/quote]
Well, now that time has passed, let's see how many clay matches
Rafa will actually have..
General, I'm not going to count Rio, since he played 2
tournaments on hard court after that and didn't keep practicing
on clay. And his results on clay thereafter show that lack of
preparation.
So that leaves us with:
Monte Carlo: 3
Barcelona: 3
Madrid: 5 (almost had to play here after MC and Barca fiascos)
Rome: 2 so far
RG:
So he has only 13 so far. He must make it to the final in Rome,
which will give him 2 or 3 wins more for 15 or 16 maximum.
That's a bit light historically going into Rafa Garros, but then
as you say, he'll have 6 matches prior to the final, which will
give him 21 or 22 matches going into the final at RG. That
should be enough as long as he makes it to the final. He knows
his way around RG.
Respectfully,
masterclass
[/quote]
you are 100% spot on general. now he is in a bit of a bind:
not sufficient practice on clay and certainly not enough match
play on clay.
he just could not help himself. you and I have been saying this
for years. he just wont let go of his infatuation with hard
courts.
he also wont let go of his infatuation with a multitude of
extracurricular activities.
he totally neglected clay and now finds himself behind the
curve.
that is not my biggest worry:
my biggest worry is that he has neglected his fitness. you heard
what general Tee said about rafa's performance in Miami. he said
that Rafa looked slow and sluggish.
that is very true. he has looked slow and sluggish to me on clay
also.
his movement is not there and he does not look lean and mean.
there is some loss of lean muscle tissue also.
even the analysts have made a few remarks about the speed of his
shots. they were not up to speed in monte carlo.
his shots lack the usual speed and the venom in rome also. that
is what is enabling all the players to get to them so easily.
he is also making it easier for them by continuing to run around
his backhand. they are able to read his shots better when he
gives up the control of the center of the court.
all that being said, I think he is still the man to beat at RG.
I don't see anybody being able to stop him there in the final.
he needs to play only one great match and he can do that in the
final.
it is a lot harder for the players to deal with him in a best of
5 sets matches on the red clay even when he is not quite
himself. he usually finds a way.
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