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#Post#: 4305--------------------------------------------------
Re: Ukraine
By: macliam Date: February 20, 2022, 4:02 pm
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[quote author=caretaker link=topic=155.msg4302#msg4302
date=1645393451]
The propaganda organs of the United Russia Party have been
trying for a long time to rewrite history to justify their
direction and actions, and without a knowledge of the history of
southern Russia, some people believe it. Ukrainians and most of
the other ethnic groups who lived and continue to live in that
area have good reason historically to hate and distrust
Russians. The situation today would be different if Yeltsin
hadn't been a ****-tank and promoted Dr Evil to where he could
become the ultimate crime boss,and it might even be different if
Trotsky had succeeded Lenin (like he wanted) instead of Stalin.
Putin knows that the Ukrainian army now isn't the same one he
and the DPR rolled over in 2014. He knows what the economic and
human costs of invading are likely to be. We'll just have to
wait and see.
[/quote]Believe me, I bear no goodwill for Russia and certainly
not for Putin. I feel sorry for a people who have never known
democracy, but that doesn't give them a free pass. However,
where Ukraine is concerned, I also know what it is to live in a
country that was colonised and dominated, I know the fractures
that arise even when those days pass and I know the difficulty
of having to pick up the pieces. I know the weight of history
and the damage that extremists do on both sides of the equation.
What I thankfully don't know is all of this being amplified by
being a proxy for bigger nations to compare the size of their
d***s.
I don't believe that Putin will invade, because I don't think he
has to. The pressure on Ukraine will expose any fractures and
the rebels will take their opportunities - covertly backed by
Russian forces. All Putin needs is to destabilise Ukraine and
make it a basket-case - and he certainly doesn't need a war to
do that. However, someone needs to wake up and smell the coffee
to see that the present-day Ukraine has deep fractures which
need to be addressed. Either that, or any attempt to put Russia
back in its box is likely to end badly.
#Post#: 4306--------------------------------------------------
Re: Ukraine
By: Dakota44 Date: February 20, 2022, 4:08 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=macliam link=topic=155.msg4300#msg4300
date=1645392858]
I'd be interested to know what part of Ukraine they came from
(although that doesn't always mean anything). As I've been
trying to point out in the "other place", Ukraine is a big
territory made up of regions and people that were historically
part of other countries, the USSR, Poland, Austria-Hungary - so
there are different traditions, religions and languages.... all
subsumed by the fact that they became part of the USSR. This
became obvious in WW2 when people in the western Ukraine were
quick to side with the invading forces against the soviets. The
biggest mistake people make is to look at lines on a map and
think they define the people there - Ukraine has to straddle
that divide, not helped by being the plaything being fought over
by Russia and the west.
As an Irishman, I believe in self-determination, so I applaud
the "freedom" of the ethnic Ukrainians and anyone who identifies
as such - but it also means I must be concerned with the
ethnic-Russians who find themselves cut off from their like on
the other side of a line drawn on a map and targeted by very
vocal ultra-nationalists who see them as foreigners in their own
land.
[/quote]
\What you suggest about the ethnic makeup of Ukraine also
applies to literally every country in Europe. For example, my
maternal side is Italian...to a degree. My grandparents came
from the province of Abruzzo and they would insist that they are
100% Italian. One problem. The majority ethnicity in Sicily
and the area around Calabria in the southern part of the
mainland....was Greek a many centuries ago. There are, in fact,
the remains of 4 or 5 ancient Greek temples on Sicily and the
mainland. But wait....when the Ottoman Empire was marauding
through the Baltics, a lot of Balkans fled across the Aegean to
eastern Italy...to around the same area as Abruzzo. As a
result....my maternal dna includes almost half of it divided
between Greek and Balkan. Lest I forget, Lombardi in Northern
Italy is filled with red or blonde haired folks due to their
ancestors tracing back to when the Lombard's invaded the area
They came from the Germanic area of old Europe. Hell, Italy was
not even a nation state until 1861. Before that it was just a
collection of individual states on the mainland and the kingdoms
of the two Sicilies.
My paternal side is German. I have a friend who swears he is
100% German and will not be swayed from that point. Pity that
it is impossible for him to be even close to that. The old
Germanic area included Scandinavian areas as well as areas of
what is France today...the Alsace Lorraine is a prime example.
As a result, the dna from my fathers line is a good 1/3
Scandinavian and French and the rest comes from my grandmothers
side which was Scottish and a lot of English, Irish and Welsh in
her ancestry.
Don't get me started on Switzerland. Four official languages.
German, French, Italian and Romansh.
Every European nations current borders were fabricated for
convenience or the of war and included more than one ethnicity.
It is just the way it is. Ukraine is not unique in that
respect.
#Post#: 4311--------------------------------------------------
Re: Ukraine
By: macliam Date: February 20, 2022, 5:07 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Dakota44 link=topic=155.msg4306#msg4306
date=1645394894]
\What you suggest about the ethnic makeup of Ukraine also
applies to literally every country in Europe. For example, my
maternal side is Italian...to a degree. My grandparents came
from the province of Abruzzo and they would insist that they are
100% Italian. One problem. The majority ethnicity in Sicily
and the area around Calabria in the southern part of the
mainland....was Greek a many centuries ago. There are, in fact,
the remains of 4 or 5 ancient Greek temples on Sicily and the
mainland. But wait....when the Ottoman Empire was marauding
through the Baltics, a lot of Balkans fled across the Aegean to
eastern Italy...to around the same area as Abruzzo. As a
result....my maternal dna includes almost half of it divided
between Greek and Balkan. Lest I forget, Lombardi in Northern
Italy is filled with red or blonde haired folks due to their
ancestors tracing back to when the Lombard's invaded the area
They came from the Germanic area of old Europe. Hell, Italy was
not even a nation state until 1861. Before that it was just a
collection of individual states on the mainland and the kingdoms
of the two Sicilies.
My paternal side is German. I have a friend who swears he is
100% German and will not be swayed from that point. Pity that
it is impossible for him to be even close to that. The old
Germanic area included Scandinavian areas as well as areas of
what is France today...the Alsace Lorraine is a prime example.
As a result, the dna from my fathers line is a good 1/3
Scandinavian and French and the rest comes from my grandmothers
side which was Scottish and a lot of English, Irish and Welsh in
her ancestry.
Don't get me started on Switzerland. Four official languages.
German, French, Italian and Romansh.
Every European nations current borders were fabricated for
convenience or the of war and included more than one ethnicity.
It is just the way it is. Ukraine is not unique in that
respect.
[/quote]
I agree, but Ukraine was controlled by external masters for
centuries until relatively recently - far more recently than
those countries you quote. I'm sure you recognize the fact that
most European countries have also seen thir borders change over
time, so the situation in Ukraine is nothing new either. My own
country is only 100 years old and had its own unresolved border
issues and disputes with it's former "master", so I do recognize
the issues at play - and that's without the extra elephant in
the room.
The real problem is that Ukraine is being used as a proxy by the
big boys in a continuance of the Cold War and this is stoking
internal divisions within the country that have had no time to
heal. To be clear, I would not support Russia in invading
accepted Ukrainian territory - and I don't condone what was done
in Crimea, but I do think we are being teed up for a showdown
for reasons other than those being publicised - and that
showdown has nothing really to do with Ukraine.
#Post#: 4312--------------------------------------------------
Re: Ukraine
By: Dakota44 Date: February 20, 2022, 5:23 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=macliam link=topic=155.msg4311#msg4311
date=1645398449]
I agree, but Ukraine was controlled by external masters for
centuries until relatively recently - far more recently than
those countries you quote. I'm sure you recognize the fact that
most European countries have also seen thir borders change over
time, so the situation in Ukraine is nothing new either. My own
country is only 100 years old and had its own unresolved border
issues and disputes with it's former "master", so I do recognize
the issues at play - and that's without the extra elephant in
the room.
The real problem is that Ukraine is being used as a proxy by the
big boys in a continuance of the Cold War and this is stoking
internal divisions within the country that have had no time to
heal. To be clear, I would not support Russia in invading
accepted Ukrainian territory - and I don't condone what was done
in Crimea, but I do think we are being teed up for a showdown
for reasons other than those being publicised - and that
showdown has nothing really to do with Ukraine.
[/quote]
I put it all on Russia. I don't think the U.S. is
interested in seeing a war. Putin, in my view, is going over
the edge, as most authoritarian leaders do. He wants to act the
big man by threatening a smaller country. Like all rulers of
his ilk, he is arrogant with an inflated ego. Sadly, I doubt
Russia will ever have a leader who is not corrupt and who does
not cater to the oligarchs. It is a shame.
#Post#: 4314--------------------------------------------------
Re: Ukraine
By: macliam Date: February 20, 2022, 5:50 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Dakota44 link=topic=155.msg4312#msg4312
date=1645399383]
I put it all on Russia. I don't think the U.S. is
interested in seeing a war. Putin, in my view, is going over
the edge, as most authoritarian leaders do. He wants to act the
big man by threatening a smaller country. Like all rulers of
his ilk, he is arrogant with an inflated ego. Sadly, I doubt
Russia will ever have a leader who is not corrupt and who does
not cater to the oligarchs. It is a shame.
[/quote]I wish history supported your view. The USA has the
biggest "defence" budget in the world and has involved itself in
wars all over the globe. It must be a constant irritant that
Russia and Putin have not gone away and the expansion of NATO is
proof positive that what started as an anti-USSR organization
has now morphed into an anti-Russian one - it really has no
other raison d'etre.... and 70,000 US troops in Europe are not
just there on their holidays.
I have no alleigiance to Putin, Xi, Russia, China or anywhere
else outside my native and adopted lands, but equally I have
seen enough naked ambition and cynicism from both sides of the
new Cold War to make me question everything.
#Post#: 4315--------------------------------------------------
Re: Ukraine
By: Dakota44 Date: February 20, 2022, 6:14 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=macliam link=topic=155.msg4314#msg4314
date=1645401024]
I wish history supported your view. The USA has the biggest
"defence" budget in the world and has involved itself in wars
all over the globe. It must be a constant irritant that Russia
and Putin have not gone away and the expansion of NATO is proof
positive that what started as an anti-USSR organization has now
morphed into an anti-Russian one - it really has no other raison
d'etre.... and 70,000 US troops in Europe are not just there on
their holidays.
I have no alleigiance to Putin, Xi, Russia, China or anywhere
else outside my native and adopted lands, but equally I have
seen enough naked ambition and cynicism from both sides of the
new Cold War to make me question everything.
[/quote]
I know too well about the vast military industrial complex and
the countries history in uncalled for wars. I do, however, think
that most Americans have had their fill of wars, from the
disastrous adventure in Vietnam to the fiasco in Iraq and the
screw up in Afghanistan. I doubt that many are enthusiastic
about another war any time soon. As for NATO, it exists as a
protective barrier against any attack on an individual member or
members. An attack on one is and attack on all. A common
defense force. Emphasis on defense, not an offensive force to
attack another nation. Frankly, I would love to see the world
disarm. Einstein once said: "I do not know what weapons WW3
will be fought with, but WW4 will be fought with sticks and
stones."
Marine Corps Major General Smedley Butler laid out the truth of
U.S. adventurism in years gone by. I agree with him completely.
“WAR is a racket. It always has been. It is possibly the oldest,
easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the
only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the
profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives. I
spent 33 years and four months in active military service and
during that period I spent most of my time as a high class
muscle man for Big Business, for Wall Street and the bankers. In
short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism. I helped
make Mexico and especially Tampico safe for American oil
interests in 1914. I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place
for the National City Bank boys to collect revenues in. I helped
in the raping of half a dozen Central American republics for the
benefit of Wall Street. I helped purify Nicaragua for the
International Banking House of Brown Brothers in 1902-1912. I
brought light to the Dominican Republic for the American sugar
interests in 1916. I helped make Honduras right for the American
fruit companies in 1903. In China in 1927 I helped see to it
that Standard Oil went on its way unmolested. Looking back on
it, I might have given Al Capone a few hints. The best he could
do was to operate his racket in three districts. I operated on
three continents.”
#Post#: 4317--------------------------------------------------
Re: Ukraine
By: zzrmark Date: February 20, 2022, 7:51 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
My two cents echoes much of what has been said - on both sides
of the argument.
Does Putin want a drawn out guerilla war, losing him support at
home when his soldiers get picked off in small but consistent
numbers over the years? I don't think so.
But, the Russian people do like a strongman type figure leading
them. Did Putin mess up in calculating that the international
community would roll over and say they wouldn't accept Ukraine
into NATO? Quite possibly. Now he is left with the option of
looking weak at home or entering into a conflict he possibly
didn't want.
The NATO community is about as likely to ever state publicly
that a country will be forbidden from entry as the CSTO is from
saying the same.
And as Dakota said, I get the impression that there is little
public support in the US to send troops into another conflict
that will be of little to no immediate benefit to them.
Both Putin and the US are as bad as each other when it comes to
messing with others territory, to claim that one is worse than
the other is a joke, they both have a history of unwarranted
interfering in other nations affairs and they've both had their
fingers burnt in Afghanistan.
As a chess game goes it is quite intriguing to watch unfold,
especially as this one has more than two players. Nobody was
likely to provoke the sleeping tiger in the East while the
Olympics were underway and there is little mention of the tiny
splinter fourth player, which I find odd. The US retreat from
Afghanistan has left Russia's southernmost territories open to
interference from the Taliban. With an easily mobilised military
the Taliban were unlikely to make any overt waves but if Russia
ties significant numbers of its army up in a conflict in Ukraine
then why not make a nuisance of themselves with the Tajiks,
Uzbeks and Kyrgz?
#Post#: 4319--------------------------------------------------
Re: Ukraine
By: macliam Date: February 20, 2022, 8:24 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=zzrmark link=topic=155.msg4317#msg4317
date=1645408266]
My two cents echoes much of what has been said - on both sides
of the argument.
Does Putin want a drawn out guerilla war, losing him support at
home when his soldiers get picked off in small but consistent
numbers over the years? I don't think so.
But, the Russian people do like a strongman type figure leading
them. Did Putin mess up in calculating that the international
community would roll over and say they wouldn't accept Ukraine
into NATO? Quite possibly. Now he is left with the option of
looking weak at home or entering into a conflict he possibly
didn't want.
The NATO community is about as likely to ever state publicly
that a country will be forbidden from entry as the CSTO is from
saying the same.
And as Dakota said, I get the impression that there is little
public support in the US to send troops into another conflict
that will be of little to no immediate benefit to them.
Both Putin and the US are as bad as each other when it comes to
messing with others territory, to claim that one is worse than
the other is a joke, they both have a history of unwarranted
interfering in other nations affairs and they've both had their
fingers burnt in Afghanistan.
As a chess game goes it is quite intriguing to watch unfold,
especially as this one has more than two players. Nobody was
likely to provoke the sleeping tiger in the East while the
Olympics were underway and there is little mention of the tiny
splinter fourth player, which I find odd. The US retreat from
Afghanistan has left Russia's southernmost territories open to
interference from the Taliban. With an easily mobilised military
the Taliban were unlikely to make any overt waves but if Russia
ties significant numbers of its army up in a conflict in Ukraine
then why not make a nuisance of themselves with the Tajiks,
Uzbeks and Kyrgz?
[/quote]
Much of what you say is sound - although I'd argue that Putin
has already shown himself as the "strongman" by getting his
agenda discussed, by having politicians fly in and out of Moscow
to see hom or Lavrov and by having the western media in
hysterics for a few weeks.
I agree that there's little to choose between the two sides in
terms of foreign interference.... although it seems that I am
branded a Putin fanboy just for suggesting such a thing.
However, France and Germany have already said they will not
accept any proposal to give NATO membership to Ukraine whilst it
has ongoing disputes, so that's off the agenda for a while - and
I really don't think Biden wants to commit US troops, he'd
rather fight a war by proxy whilst talking tough.
I also don't think Putin has any intention of a formal invasion
of Ukraine, certainly not beyond the line of Russian-separatist
support - why would he? A compromised Ukraine is a weak Ukraine,
a Ukraine in conflict is not likely to be accepted for NATO
membership and he gets the kudos for "saving" the
ethnic-Russians.
I understand your suggestion about a potential second front in
the south, but Russia has more than enough soldiers to handle
both, if western estimates are correct. With 1m regular and 2m
reserve in the defence forces, 160,000 is only a fraction of the
troops at his disposal. I also think it unlikely that the
Taliban would do anything..... they are not Al Quaeda or IS and
have not threatened outside their borders, though I'm sure that
Langley has plans to cause issues there, just like their well
thought out plans to arm the mujahadeen against the Soviets back
in the day - and look how well that turned out for us all
subsequently!
#Post#: 4335--------------------------------------------------
Re: Ukraine
By: caretaker Date: February 21, 2022, 4:21 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
"Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered his Defense
Ministry to send Russian troops into eastern Ukraine's two
breakaway regions, according to a decree published early on
Tuesday after he said Moscow would recognize their
independence."
HTML https://www.dw.com/en/putin-orders-russian-troops-into-eastern-ukraine-separatist-provinces-live-updates/a-60866119
#Post#: 4336--------------------------------------------------
Re: Ukraine
By: macliam Date: February 21, 2022, 5:19 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=caretaker link=topic=155.msg4335#msg4335
date=1645482106]
"Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered his Defense
Ministry to send Russian troops into eastern Ukraine's two
breakaway regions, according to a decree published early on
Tuesday after he said Moscow would recognize their
independence."
HTML https://www.dw.com/en/putin-orders-russian-troops-into-eastern-ukraine-separatist-provinces-live-updates/a-60866119
[/quote]
This has wrong-footed NATO, but is a dangerous escalation. The
issue is that (I think) he has recognized not just the
rebel-held enclaves, but the entire oblasts - some of which
territory is still in Ukrainian government hands. This would put
pressure on Ukraine to withdraw, or risk Russia "aiding" these
rebel area overtly, now that they are "no longer part of
Ukraine" according to Putin. It may also stoke friction within
Ukraine, with the ultra-nationalists calling for confrontation
and others hoping for a negotiated settlement.
I smell a suggested "deal" by Putin, where he offers to drop his
claim on the Ukrainian-held territory in return for recognition
of the independence of the declared "people's republics" and of
his absorbtion of Crimea. I'd then expect the "people's
republics" to vote for "unity" with Russia in short order.
I certainly hope that it doesn't lead to physical conflict, but
it isn't looking good.
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