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#Post#: 129968--------------------------------------------------
Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
DIR By: JR
Date: May 13, 2013, 9:25 am
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With Vitters, there's part of me that thinks if he stays parked
at Triple-A for a while, he might break out like Geovany Soto
did in his third year in Iowa and wind up having a respectable
major league career. The bar to being a useful 3B in the majors
isn't as high as it used to be.
#Post#: 129969--------------------------------------------------
Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
DIR By: Deeg
Date: May 13, 2013, 9:29 am
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It's high enough that Vitters will never play there regularly.
Maybe he can make a career as a DH/1B/LF in his late 20's but
that's a pretty optimistic take.
#Post#: 129994--------------------------------------------------
Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
DIR By: JR
Date: May 13, 2013, 11:31 am
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Revisiting Szczur, yes his numbers are better than last year,
and he's figuring out Double-A.
Still I've always kind of hoped there was at least a sliver of a
chance he had a Kenny Lofton/Jacoby Ellsbury type ceiling, but
it's looking less and less likely that's the case (And I'm
probably very late to the party on this one). Maybe he'll be a
late bloomer with the pop in his bat, but it looks like he just
doesn't have the kind of pop to be that dynamic of a leadoff
hitter.
I'm sort of resigning myself to the idea that Szczur's best case
scenario is more along the lines of John Cangelosi than they are
Kenny Lofton. (And I'm sure Jeff will remind me soon that we'll
be extremely fortunate if he becomes another Chico Walker.)
#Post#: 129998--------------------------------------------------
Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
DIR By: craig
Date: May 13, 2013, 11:56 am
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--- Quote from: JR link ---
>
> It's hard to say any hitting prospect has taken a huge leap
forward or been super impressive. The ones who have are mostly
second or third tier guys, like Shoulders or Bruno. I guess if
you were going to take stock of our position player prospects so
far, it could look something like this: ....
>
> UNCHANGED
> Jorge Soler
> Dan Vogelbach......
--- End Quote ---
I generally agree with your thinking, JR. If you aren't
improving when you're a prospect based on potential that you'll
get better later, then time that passes without improvement is
stock down. I'd put Jackson in the "stock down" group, and
include Candelario/Amaya/Villanueva/Szczur in that group as
well.
"Unchanged" versus "stock up" means different things depending
on where you started in the prospect list. For an elite
prospect, "unchanged" IS "stock up". If somebody comes in with
a great reputation, and that remains unchanged despite a
promotion and further exposure, that equals "stock up". I think
Soler might be like that. Obviously if you come in as a #31
guy, and your status is "unchanged", that's not going to get you
where you need to go.
#Post#: 130001--------------------------------------------------
Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
DIR By: craig
Date: May 13, 2013, 12:18 pm
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--- Quote from: JR link ---
>
> Revisiting Szczur, yes his numbers are better than last year,
and he's figuring out Double-A.
>
> Still I've always kind of hoped there was at least a sliver of
a chance he had a Kenny Lofton/Jacoby Ellsbury type ceiling, but
it's looking less and less likely that's the case (And I'm
probably very late to the party on this one). Maybe he'll be a
late bloomer with the pop in his bat, but it looks like he just
doesn't have the kind of pop to be that dynamic of a leadoff
hitter.
>
> I'm sort of resigning myself to the idea that Szczur's best
case scenario is more along the lines of John Cangelosi than
they are Kenny Lofton. (And I'm sure Jeff will remind me soon
that we'll be extremely fortunate if he becomes another Chico
Walker.)
>
--- End Quote ---
I totally understand your view. deeg saying that he's just
being what he's always been is fine, other than his Daytona
fling as an anomaly last year. But people who ranked him as a
top-15 prospect have always done so under the assumption that he
might become something better. Given his small-college-baseball
background with a football focus, and given his inconsistency as
a pro, I think there has been some justification that he might
perform better than his career averages; or hopes that he might
perform more at the Daytona-2012 level than at the Daytona-11 or
Tennessee-12 levels.
We'll see where he goes. He's been on a binge the last four
games, with 8 singles, a double, two walks, and no K's in 19 AB.
He's needed that to get his OBP up to .365 and his OPS over
.700, and currently up to .737. The Cubs could certainly do
with a plus-fielding CFer who could lead off with a .365 OBP.
So maybe he's still got a chance. But most .365-OBP AA
singles-hitters don't end up having very good OBP's in the
majors.
#Post#: 130009--------------------------------------------------
Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
DIR By: JR
Date: May 13, 2013, 12:45 pm
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I was kind of hoping there was an off chance Szczur might break
out this year, post a low to mid .800's type OPS, and establish
himself as a really legitimate, top notch CF prospect. I didn't
have great expectations of it happening, but for guys like
Szczur who were signed to first round money, we really need some
guys like him to break out and establish themselves as exciting
prospects.
In a bubble, it's not a bad thing if your $1.5 million signing
bonus guy like Szczur does turn out to have a John Cangelosi
type career, for instance. But for the Cubs to get out from
being last place in the NL Central, we need a couple of guys
like this to step it up, surprise us occasionally, and turn into
star prospects and star players.
#Post#: 130012--------------------------------------------------
Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
DIR By: Playtwo
Date: May 13, 2013, 12:52 pm
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It's still only May.
#Post#: 130020--------------------------------------------------
Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
DIR By: JR
Date: May 13, 2013, 1:08 pm
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True point.
#Post#: 130026--------------------------------------------------
Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
DIR By: jacey1
Date: May 13, 2013, 1:48 pm
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--- Quote from: JR link ---
>
> I was kind of hoping there was an off chance Szczur might
break out this year, post a low to mid .800's type OPS, and
establish himself as a really legitimate, top notch CF prospect.
I didn't have great expectations of it happening, but for guys
like Szczur who were signed to first round money, we really need
some guys like him to break out and establish themselves as
exciting prospects.
>
> In a bubble, it's not a bad thing if your $1.5 million signing
bonus guy like Szczur does turn out to have a John Cangelosi
type career, for instance. But for the Cubs to get out from
being last place in the NL Central, we need a couple of guys
like this to step it up, surprise us occasionally, and turn into
star prospects and star players.
>
--- End Quote ---
The thing that bothers me about Sczur is that he does not get
many xbh's. I like him otherwise but i was hoping for a bit more
than an xbh every two weeks. He would be a nice trade chip in a
deal for something more of value. Cangelosi, also is who i
compare him too. I want something a bit more
#Post#: 130037--------------------------------------------------
Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
DIR By: Chris27
Date: May 13, 2013, 2:53 pm
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Vogelbach: 2-4
Johnson: 6-7-4-3-1-6
HTML http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2013_05_13_kccafx_cliafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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