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#Post#: 130393--------------------------------------------------
Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
DIR By: davep
Date: May 15, 2013, 9:21 am
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.302 in Tennessee isn't bad. He still needs to raise his number
of doubles and triples, but he looks like he might be a decent
4th outfielder who can play regularly for stretches at a time
without hurting the team.
#Post#: 130397--------------------------------------------------
Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
DIR By: craig
Date: May 15, 2013, 9:55 am
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He's on a tear; he's got 14 hits in his last 6 games.
His present numbers: .373 OBP, 21K/15BB/139AB, .345 BABIP. His
15% K-rate is down from 18% last year, his walk rate is also
down but is still pretty good. So he's not Juan Pierre in
either area. In past his BABIP hasn't always been very good.
We'll see. What goes up must come down, etc.. It's taken a
blazing week to get up to .302/.373/.763. Will he be able to
sustain, or perhaps continue to elevate it? Or a month from now
will he be back towards .280/.350/.730?
I'd still like to get more input on his defense. I assume it
should be better than DeJesus, but I wonder if it's something
that's really good, and something in his favor? Or whether it's
average or perhaps a bit below average, relative to the high
standard for big-league CF defense.
Hopefully he can keep producing. We don't have any long-term
CFer right now. So while 4th OFer seems like a good goal, I
admit I'd still hope for more, for a good-OBP leadoff guy who
plays asset CF defense.
#Post#: 130421--------------------------------------------------
Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
DIR By: JR
Date: May 15, 2013, 11:23 am
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Szczur's IsoP has typically been in the .120 to .130 range, so
he's underperforming that so far this year at .080.
If he can somehow maintain a .300 batting average with
.120-.130 isolated power, that'd be pretty interesting. I'm
pretty doubtful he's a true .300 hitter, though.
#Post#: 130436--------------------------------------------------
Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
DIR By: JR
Date: May 15, 2013, 11:57 am
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Actually Szczur at this point has played the exact same number
of games and had the exact same number of plate appearances as
he had in Tennessee last year. I love comparing stat lines like
this, by the way.
[table] [tr] [td]Year[/td] [td]Age[/td] [td]Tm[/td]
[td]Lg[/td] [td]Lev[/td] [td]Aff[/td] [td]G[/td] [td]PA[/td]
[td]AB[/td] [td]R[/td] [td]H[/td] [td]2B[/td] [td]3B[/td]
[td]HR[/td] [td]RBI[/td] [td]SB[/td] [td]CS[/td] [td]BB[/td]
[td]SO[/td] [td]BA[/td] [td]OBP[/td] [td]SLG[/td] [td]OPS[/td]
[td]TB[/td] [td]GDP[/td] [td]HBP[/td] [td]SH[/td] [td]SF[/td]
[td]IBB[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]2012
HTML http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/league.cgi?year=2012[/td]<br
/>[td]22[/td] [td]Tennessee
HTML http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/team.cgi?id=9881f7a2[/td]<br
/>[td]SOUL
HTML http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/league.cgi?id=ee8b6c63[/td]<br
/>[td]AA[/td] [td]CHC[/td] [td]35[/td] [td]158[/td] [td]143[/td]
[td]24[/td] [td]30[/td] [td]7[/td] [td]4[/td] [td]2[/td]
[td]6[/td] [td]4[/td] [td]2[/td] [td]14[/td] [td]29[/td]
[td]0.210[/td] [td]0.285[/td] [td]0.357[/td] [td]0.641[/td]
[td]51[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]1[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]0[/td]
[td]0[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]2013
HTML http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/league.cgi?year=2013[/td]<br
/>[td]23[/td] [td]Tennessee
HTML http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/team.cgi?id=17dcb03f[/td]<br
/>[td]SOUL
HTML http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/league.cgi?id=83863286[/td]<br
/>[td]AA[/td] [td]CHC[/td] [td]35[/td] [td]158[/td] [td]139[/td]
[td]24[/td] [td]42[/td] [td]4[/td] [td]1[/td] [td]2[/td]
[td]18[/td] [td]13[/td] [td]2[/td] [td]15[/td] [td]21[/td]
[td]0.302[/td] [td]0.373[/td] [td]0.388[/td] [td]0.762[/td]
[td]54[/td] [td]2[/td] [td]2[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]2[/td]
[td]0[/td] [/tr] [/table]
The only real differences between last year and this year . . .
1. 12 more base hits.
2. 8 fewer strikeouts.
3. 6 fewer extra base hits. (interesting he has fewer extra
base hits when he has increased the number of base hits from
last year)
Everything else is relatively the same for him as last year.
So is he trading power for more contact?
#Post#: 130438--------------------------------------------------
Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
DIR By: Cubsin
Date: May 15, 2013, 12:21 pm
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I'd say the nine extra SB offset the seven fewer XBH, and the
improved OPS is an important distinction. He also tripled his
RBI's..
#Post#: 130450--------------------------------------------------
Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
DIR By: JR
Date: May 15, 2013, 12:50 pm
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--- Quote from: Cubsin link ---
>
> I'd say the nine extra SB offset the seven fewer XBH, and the
improved OPS is an important distinction. He also tripled his
RBI's..
>
--- End Quote ---
Well what you'd like to see is for him to hit at the same XBH
clip as he has in the past (and improve on it) to go along with
the extra stolen bases. That's the difference in a guy being an
anti-awful starter/4th outfielder and a guy who can be an
all-star.
I guess that's just the problem with I've had with Szczur. When
he's hitting well and finally has a new level figured out, the
absolutely only thing missing from his profile is extra base
hits. His K and BB ratios are usually very good, so he usually
has a nice BA and OBP. If he can develop some modest pop, he
can be a force at the top of a lineup and be pretty much the
perfect leadoff hitter to have setting the tables for
(hopefully) Baez, Soler, Rizzo, etc. down the road.
The Hendry/Wilken scouts always seemed to be a lot more bullish
on Szczur's potential for hitting with 10-20 home run power than
just about everyone else, though. I guess we'll see.
Unfortunately, if anything in the early going this season, his
power is taking a slight step backwards instead of forwards.
#Post#: 130454--------------------------------------------------
Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
DIR By: davep
Date: May 15, 2013, 1:05 pm
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I think the odds are greatly against Ceasar being a future all
star, especially a future perennial all star.
But there is a great spectrum between perennial all star and a
bust. Right now, having performed reasonably well in AA, it is
not unreasonable to expect that he can be a valuable 4th
outfielder, and the difference between that and being an
acceptable starting outfielder is not that great. I don't think
it is a stretch to hope that he becomes a DeJesus-type starting
outfielder, and that is not an insignificant of valueless thing.
Good systems produce a few all stars, but they also have to
produce a lot of DeJesus type players.
If Ceasar develops 20 HR power, he can be an all star. But even
without that, he could be a valuable contributor on a good team.
Michael Bourne is not a perennial all star. But he is a pretty
good and valuable player, and Ceasar seems to have a lot of
talents similar to his. That is not a prediction, but it is not
an unreasonable hope, given his performance thus far.
#Post#: 130459--------------------------------------------------
Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
DIR By: jacey1
Date: May 15, 2013, 1:32 pm
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It just bothers me that he is not turning out to be a star (at
this point). Again, a good reserve OF to have on your team, or a
trade chip. Damn I wish he was a star prospect
#Post#: 130465--------------------------------------------------
Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
DIR By: Playtwo
Date: May 15, 2013, 2:20 pm
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It's premature to be conclusive about Szczur's ceiling, IMO.
#Post#: 130479--------------------------------------------------
Re: On the Farm (5/9/13 - 11/4/14)
DIR By: davep
Date: May 15, 2013, 3:54 pm
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I am not saying that he WON'T be an all star. But by the time a
player makes it to AA, much of the potential is behind him, and
what you see is more and more likely what you will get. Just as
the odds of his being a bust are reduced, so are the odds of his
being a top ten type of player. The most likely end game is
more likely to be in the middle, just as 90% of those that make
it are in the middle.
I don't think his ceiling has changed. But the odds of reaching
that ceiling are reduced.
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