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#Post#: 126607--------------------------------------------------
Re: Today's Game
DIR By: JR
Date: April 22, 2013, 11:19 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Ray link ---
>
> A -18 run differential with a 5-13 record. Can't say I
expected them to be a game out in the win column for the number
1 pick 18 games into the season, but the run differential
insinuates the Cubs really should have a better record when
comparing theirs to the run differential the rest of the crappy
teams have.
>
> I think a lot of it falls on the coaching. The team looks
poorly coached.
>
--- End Quote ---
The Pythagorean formula would project the Cubs to have 6.78 wins
based on their runs scored/runs allowed. So we basically are
one or two wins below what we ought to be right now.
#Post#: 126608--------------------------------------------------
Re: Today's Game
DIR By: brjones
Date: April 22, 2013, 11:20 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Eastcoastfan link ---
>
> They are just so devoid of talent. They probably need another
5 years of top 5 picks. But, man: How long until they bottom
out? Distressing to see their future "core" look like very
flawed players.
>
--- End Quote ---
--- Quote from: StrikeZone link ---
>
> Honestly, I can't imagine how anyone -- fan, manager, front
office personnel, media member, Ronnie Woo Woo, anyone -- could
have looked at this team and thought it was anything but a total
disaster.
>
--- End Quote ---
You guys just aren't looking at the same team I am...and man, I
wish I could see it the way you do. I wish I could see a team
that was just crappy all around, and just accept it. But when I
look at the Cubs, I see a team with the 5th best starting
rotation in baseball by ERA (coming into tonight--Wood's
performance may have moved them up the list). I see them
getting All Star-like performance out of CF, RF, and C. Even
their expected third base disaster has a starter with a .786 OPS
right now. Hell, as frustrating as their so-called stars have
seemed...Rizzo has 6 HR, and Castro has an OPS over .750.
There is no way this team should be 5-13. No way. 7-11 or 8-10
would be disappointing with the way the rotation and secondary
players have performed. It really is amazing how the Cubs have
just found ways to lose. I really can't remember a team that
has underperformed this much this soon.
#Post#: 126609--------------------------------------------------
Re: Today's Game
DIR By: JR
Date: April 22, 2013, 11:22 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote ---
> I think a lot of it falls on the coaching. The team looks
poorly coached.
--- End Quote ---
Yeah as improved as the effort and fundamentals looked last
season when Sveum first took over, they don't look nearly as
good early this season. Sveum isn't exactly impressing me with
his in game managing this season either. (I'm still wondering
how we got ourselves in a spot where we were forced to pitch to
Joey Votto with first base open, two outs, and the winning run
on third . . . not too many managers are ever going to find
themselves in that spot for sure.)
Of course, when you have a team that has this little talent on
it, you can be Tony LaRussa, and things still wouldn't look a
lot better than they are now.
#Post#: 126610--------------------------------------------------
Re: Today's Game
DIR By: JR
Date: April 22, 2013, 11:27 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote ---
> There is no way this team should be 5-13. No way. 7-11 or
8-10 would be disappointing with the way the rotation and
secondary players have performed. It really is amazing how the
Cubs have just found ways to lose. I really can't remember a
team that has underperformed this much this soon.
--- End Quote ---
Well one reason definitely is the bullpen. This bullpen is flat
out awful.
Our #3 and #4 hitters still haven't been that good this year.
Barney should pick things up a little bit, but 2B has been a
black hole all season thus far. The Cubs have committed the
second most errors in baseball. Edwin Jackson and Scott Feldman
really haven't been all that great in the rotation.
So there are some reasons why we're 5-13 instead of 7-11 or
8-10.
#Post#: 126611--------------------------------------------------
Re: Today's Game
DIR By: brjones
Date: April 22, 2013, 11:44 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Even the bullpen is 24th in the majors in ERA. Not good at
all...but the Nationals, Yankees, and (of course) Cardinals have
managed to have a better than .500 record with weaker bullpen
performance.
#Post#: 126612--------------------------------------------------
Re: Today's Game
DIR By: Boris From Downunder
Date: April 22, 2013, 11:50 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
This Cub bullpen is such a wanker!
#Post#: 126613--------------------------------------------------
Re: Today's Game
DIR By: brjones
Date: April 22, 2013, 11:50 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Also, it's interesting to look at Baseball Prospectus' adjusted
standings. They have three versions of expected standings. By
the first (pythagorean record), the Cubs are the third biggest
underperformer (only about 1/10 a win behind the Dodgers and
Padres). By the second and third order projections, the Cubs
are the biggest underperformers in baseball...and it's not even
kind of close:
HTML http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/
HTML http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/
Obviously, estimates like this have to be taken with a grain of
salt. But they do give some statistical evidence that the Cubs
should be much better than they are. And these numbers don't
include today's game, by the way. I'd be shocked if the Cubs
didn't look like even bigger underperformers tomorrow.
#Post#: 126615--------------------------------------------------
Re: Today's Game
DIR By: StrikeZone
Date: April 23, 2013, 12:27 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: brjones link ---
>
> You guys just aren't looking at the same team I am...and man,
I wish I could see it the way you do. I wish I could see a team
that was just crappy all around, and just accept it. But when I
look at the Cubs, I see a team with the 5th best starting
rotation in baseball by ERA (coming into tonight--Wood's
performance may have moved them up the list). I see them
getting All Star-like performance out of CF, RF, and C. Even
their expected third base disaster has a starter with a .786 OPS
right now. Hell, as frustrating as their so-called stars have
seemed...Rizzo has 6 HR, and Castro has an OPS over .750.
>
> There is no way this team should be 5-13. No way. 7-11 or
8-10 would be disappointing with the way the rotation and
secondary players have performed. It really is amazing how the
Cubs have just found ways to lose. I really can't remember a
team that has underperformed this much this soon.
>
--- End Quote ---
We knew their offense would struggle to score runs and that the
bullpen would be a disaster. It wasn't a huge leap to think
that the defense would be bad, too.
The starting pitching was a huge question mark with the injuries
to Matt Garza and Scott Baker pushing their debuts back.
As well as some guys (Nate Schierholtz, Wellington Castillo,
Carlos Villanueva) have done, I could see the team playing worse
than they have as those guys find their level.
#Post#: 126629--------------------------------------------------
Re: Today's Game
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: April 23, 2013, 8:54 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: brjones link ---
>
> Also, it's interesting to look at Baseball Prospectus'
adjusted standings. They have three versions of expected
standings. By the first (pythagorean record), the Cubs are the
third biggest underperformer (only about 1/10 a win behind the
Dodgers and Padres). By the second and third order projections,
the Cubs are the biggest underperformers in baseball...and it's
not even kind of close:
>
>
HTML http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/
HTML http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/
>
> Obviously, estimates like this have to be taken with a grain
of salt. But they do give some statistical evidence that the
Cubs should be much better than they are. And these numbers
don't include today's game, by the way. I'd be shocked if the
Cubs didn't look like even bigger underperformers tomorrow.
>
--- End Quote ---
Yea, too bad W/L records aren't determined by what
baseballprospectus says they should be (sort of team
peripherals), then the Cubs could be simply mildly worse than
mediocre and right in the thick of a pennant hunt!
Seriously, if they are not going to be good enough to be in the
thick of things (and they aren't), there is really no reason to
be too concerned about being just slightly less bad.
#Post#: 126630--------------------------------------------------
Re: Today's Game
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: April 23, 2013, 8:55 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: brjones link ---
>
> There is no way this team should be 5-13. No way. 7-11 or
8-10 would be disappointing with the way the rotation and
secondary players have performed. It really is amazing how the
Cubs have just found ways to lose. I really can't remember a
team that has underperformed this much this soon.
>
--- End Quote ---
--- Quote from: JR link ---
>
> The Pythagorean formula would project the Cubs to have 6.78
wins based on their runs scored/runs allowed. So we basically
are one or two wins below what we ought to be right now.
>
--- End Quote ---
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