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#Post#: 122640--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: davep
Date: March 29, 2013, 12:03 pm
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--- Quote from: Playtwo link ---
>
> Penny wise, pound foolish. Pick the guy based on your
scouting.
>
--- End Quote ---
What I was saying was that if the scouting shows them to be
close to equal, go with the cheapest one. And I agree that that
would likely be the non-Boras client.
#Post#: 122643--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Playtwo
Date: March 29, 2013, 12:11 pm
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I'll restate my point, Dave. Cost should be a very, very small
factor in the decision.
#Post#: 122672--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: davep
Date: March 29, 2013, 2:32 pm
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I agree that the best prospect should almost always be chosen,
regardless of cost or position.
However cost does play a part in the decisions.
If the Cubs felt that Appel was the best player available when
they picked last year, would we have been better off with Appel,
or with Almora, Johnson, Underwood, Blackburn, etc?
Seriously, I don't know the answer to that. I am not sure what
I would do if faced with that situation.
#Post#: 122676--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: March 29, 2013, 2:52 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> it's the norm, not the exception, for a drafted pitching star
to have been drafted first round and often high first. And even
on that list, their are few non-first rounders and they often
aren't in the same class as the super-aces.
>
--- End Quote ---
--- Quote from: Deeg link ---
>
> Appel and Gray 1-2 is fine, but history is what it is. 50-50
for TJ or worse, no matter what their mechanics look like now.
That's why the bias towards hitters is, in general terms, a sign
that this administration really gets it.
>
--- End Quote ---
I just don't know that is the case anymore, and would love to
see are look at how often top pitching prospects drafted in the
last few years have broken down in the first 3-4 years (which
would seem to be the highest risk period) compared to ten years
ago or more.
We already know that even when a young pitcher ends up needing
TJ surgery, there is a good chance that he will return at
something close to his prior performance level, but my question
is whether more careful handling of highly prized young arms
today, better training and instruction to get them to use safer
pitching techniques, and more aggressive early measures if any
problem is seen might have changed things and might have made
top young arms better bets today than they were 10 years ago or
longer.
With very limited look, here is what I have found.
In 2008, there were only 3 pitchers drafted in the 1st 15 picks
of the draft: Brian Matusz; Aaron Crow; Ethan Martin. Martin
has thrown 100 or more innings each season since, and would
appear to have had no injury problems.
HTML http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=martin001eth<br
/> Crow didn't sign in 2008, was redrafted in 2009 with the 12th
pick, and while he may have fallen short of expectations, I
can't find anything about him having been injured. Matusz has
suffered a few injuries, but apparently not the kind of elbow or
shoulder problems which cripple a career.
In 2009, there were 11 pitchers taken with the 1st 15 picks:
Strassburg has had some problems, including need TJ surgery, but
appears to have fully recovered. Matthew Hobgood had rotator
cuff surgery in 2012; Zack Wheeler pitched almost 150 innings
last year, finished strongly in AAA and appears never to have
had arm problems; Mike Minor is entering his 4th year in the
majors, with more than 110 innings each year since signing and
no sign of real arm trouble; Mike Leake is now in the majors,
has thrown 120 or more innings each year and appears to have had
no real problems; Jacob Turner is enterng his 3rd year in the
majors now, has thrown more than 115 innings each year and does
not appear to have had any arm problems; Drew Storen is now
entering his 4th year in the majors, is relieving, but missed a
good part of last year with elbow problems; Tyler Matzek is
still in the minors and has been far less than impressive, but
appears not to have had arm problems, just control problems;
Aaron Crow was addressed in the 2008 draft; Matt Purke failed to
sign in 2009 (out of HS) but did sign when redrafted in the 3rd
round of the 2011 draft.... and did poorly in A ball when he
started as a pro last year (he may have had arm problems in
college); Alex White was in AAA last year and appears to have
had arm problems after his 2010 season when he threw 150 innings
at age 21, then only 40 in 2011.
There ARE still highly regarded pitchers there who are having
arm problems and likely flaming out... but it does not appear to
be as often as in the past, and in the case of Alex White the
150 innings at age 21 almost begged for trouble.
Things may have changed.
--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> I think this whole situation is a reminder of how, even though
the team was struggling vigorously to lose less than 100 games,
it is a nice perk to get a really high pick like this. If we
were picking 4th or 5th, we'd still get a really good prospect.
But you're not in quite so strong a "win-win-win" win-big
situation.
>
--- End Quote ---
This is one more reason why it would be foolish for the Cubs to
become a buyer instead of a seller in July if the team gets
lucky and over-performs for a couple of months, bringing very
marginal improvement in weak chances for a marginal team to
squeak into the playoffs, and in the process seriously reducing
the chance of getting draft pick in 2014 which could help build
the team which the Theocracy could make into a dominant force
for several years.
#Post#: 122678--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: March 29, 2013, 3:06 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Playtwo link ---
>
> Penny wise, pound foolish. Pick the guy based on your
scouting.
>
--- End Quote ---
Scouting includes more than their baseball performance. It
includes their personal makeup, and using Boras says something
about that. It also indicates how quickly, or slowly, a
prospect might be expected to sign. And if a first round draft
pick holds out for more than slot, and reduces funds available
for lower picks, and slows down the entire process of signing
other picks, that is a real concern.
But beyond all of that, by comment was simply on who *I*
personally hope the Cubs sign. I don't like Boras, and I would
like the Cubs to have less involvement with him than more. And
do not that I began my comment with, "If Gray and Appel are
close." If they are NOT close, take the better prospect.
Period.
#Post#: 122697--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Chris27
Date: March 29, 2013, 5:15 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Jonathan Gray's previous two starts prior to last night:
Vs TCU:
HTML http://www.soonersports.tv/video/play.jsp?content_id=25788755&topic_id=40570782&c_id=soonersports
Vs Northwestern St:
HTML http://www.soonersports.tv/video/play.jsp?content_id=25683877&topic_id=40447224&c_id=soonersports
#Post#: 122715--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Chris27
Date: March 29, 2013, 6:56 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Sean Manaea's Friday outing:
7-1/3 -6-3-2-3-5
#Post#: 122726--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Deeg
Date: March 29, 2013, 7:43 pm
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It seems pretty safe to assume Manaea is out of the mix at #2,
unless Gray or Appel goes down with a major injury.
#Post#: 122739--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: StrikeZone
Date: March 29, 2013, 10:41 pm
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It's possible that the Cubs passed on Appel last year because of
his bonus demands. This year, he doesn't have the leverage of
going back to Stanford. Gray has that leverage this time
around.
#Post#: 122985--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Reb
Date: April 1, 2013, 12:22 pm
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From ESPN draft blog today:
• Once again, both Mark Appel and Jonathan Gray were outstanding
in their starts, with each going on Thursday because of the
holiday. Appel shut out a solid Washington State lineup, going
the distance for the third time in six games with 10 strikeouts
and just one walk. The Stanford right-hander did hit three
batters, but gave up only four hits and threw just 110 pitches.
Gray faced a Kansas club that wasn't close to as good as the
Cougar lineup Appel faced -- and that's putting it nicely -- but
once again, the Sooner right-hander was close to unhittable.
Gray gave up one run and two hits in his nine innings, with one
walk and 12 strikeouts in a tidy 105 pitches against the
Jayhawks.
Last week, the scout I talked to considered Appel to be the best
player in the draft. This week, I got a different response.
"I like Appel, but at this point, Gray would be (first) on my
board," an AL scout said. "I'll take the triple-digit fastball
and the wipeout slider any day of the week. There have been
times that I've heard Mark was just a little too fastball heavy
without elite command. I don't hear that about Gray very often,
I think he's going to be a star."
This is one of the first reports I've heard of a scout
preferring Gray to Appel, but don't be surprised if this battle
tightens as we get closer to June.
• While Gray and Appel continue to rise up draft boards, Sean
Manaea continues to slip. The Indiana State left-hander was less
than dominant in his start Friday against Missouri State, giving
up three runs (two earned) in his 7 1/3 innings, giving up six
hits and three walks, and striking out just five. The Sycamore's
defense has let him down all year, but the southpaw hasn't
looked like a potential top-five pick for most of the 2013
season.
• .......Kris Bryant continues to dominate. The San Diego third
baseman was solid once again this weekend against Oregon State,
picking up two more extra-base hits. Bryant now has a cartoonish
line of .370/.533/.900 over the year, and any debate on who the
best collegiate hitter in the class has been put to bed.
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