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#Post#: 120512--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Deeg
Date: March 14, 2013, 5:24 am
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Every scout's justification for preferring Meadows has always
listed size as a major fator. How big does a guy have to be,
exactly - is 6'1" not big enough to be a superstar? It's damn
silly as far as I'm concerned.
#Post#: 120528--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: craig
Date: March 14, 2013, 9:36 am
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I saw a scouting writeup earlier this week, Kiley McDaniel
maybe? Who had Frazier's power as kind of modest, projected him
as a 15-20 HR guy. Said he'd rank him a little bit behind
Almora, who he'd ranked as the #1 guy last year. Ranked Frazier
ahead of Meadows. I think some reference to a little bit of a
hitch or something in his swing, that might become problematic
against good pitchers. Viewed Frazier as basically at or near
his max physically, no projection left really.
Personally, I'm not sure I see why an extra two inches beyond
6'1" is desirable, unless the 6'1" guy doesn't have the
strength/bat-speed/wrists for genuine big-league power. 6'3"
isn't way too long. But it does seem taller guys with longer
levers often have longer swings and more problems with movement
and breaking balls. So if the scouting really thinks Frazier
can be a serious big-league HR guy while also hitting for
average, I think I'd almost prefer the 6'1" to a 6'3" or taller
guy.
#Post#: 120530--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: craig
Date: March 14, 2013, 9:49 am
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As far as I'm concerned, the more the top guys impress, the
better I like it. We need to have at least two really good
prospects to guarantee a premium guy will be left at #2.
Whether that's Appel and Frazier, Appel and Manea, Manea and
Gray, as long as their are two, we can feel safe to get somebody
really good. Win win.
If there are three or more, that could make it hard on
management to decide between win-win options. But that would be
a nice problem to face.
I understand the pitcher statistics, so I'll be happy if we get
a player. But I admit that Appel has a lot of appeal. As a
senior, there is little projection required. He'll be
big-league ready almost immediately, in terms of velocity,
breaking stuff, and control. Every arm is a risk, and could fry
at any time. But if you aren't wasting years of arm-failure
risk in the minors, but get big-league service quickly, it
increases the odds that you'll get a productive return on the
investment before his arm goes bad. And maybe you'll get lucky
and he'll be one who stays healthy for a lot of years, including
some championships?
#Post#: 120534--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: March 14, 2013, 10:37 am
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--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> Every arm is a risk, and could fry at any time. But if you
aren't wasting years of arm-failure risk in the minors, but get
big-league service quickly, it increases the odds that you'll
get a productive return on the investment before his arm goes
bad. And maybe you'll get lucky and he'll be one who stays
healthy for a lot of years, including some championships?
>
--- End Quote ---
Like Prior.
Without him we never could have won the WS in 2003.
#Post#: 120539--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Playtwo
Date: March 14, 2013, 11:29 am
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Considering the current state of starting pitching in the
organization, the addition of a young starter would be huge. If
we think Appel (or a similar "tested" college pitcher) has a
floor of being a middle of the rotation-type ML pitcher, and I
think you go for him. Only a stud two way CF or C prospect
might make me think otherwise.
#Post#: 120540--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: davep
Date: March 14, 2013, 11:32 am
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If reports are to be believed, the Cubs managed to get their top
rated choice for the last two years. I suspect they will get
that again this year.
But I don't think that anyone would have picked either Baez or
almora as their top rated player of that year. The same may
hold true this year.
#Post#: 120559--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: craig
Date: March 14, 2013, 12:42 pm
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One wonderful pick can make a draft. But it would be nice to
have money to sign excellent 2nd, 3rd etc picks as well. Will
be interesting to see if Houston insists on holding to
slot/underslot again. And to see whether the Cubs go superslot
again.
Using last year's numbers, picks 1-4 slot at
$7.2/$6.2/$5.2/$4.2.
The Cubs total slot should be about $10, plus the 15% allowed
overage.
The Cubs could target a guy, and give him a high number that
could be used to deter Houston. Getting up up $8 is very
doable, and might be worth it if that's what it takes to get him
away from Houston. Pick slot-signables in rounds 2-7, then go
minimum wage in 8-10 like they did last year.
Or they could have a guy or two, and say $5.7. Hard to beat
that with picks 3 or following; should we pick you or take
somebody else? A modest sub-slot signing could give them $2
million in discretionary money, counting overage. Could be fun
to see what they could get with picks 2 and 3 if they could
seriously superslot. Pretty good chance that with pick #41 or
whatever, there will be somebody left who was top 20 on your
board.
#Post#: 120600--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Chris27
Date: March 14, 2013, 2:45 pm
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Baez is listed at 6-0 or 6-1 and his power seems to be decent.
Frazier's looked okay in those videos too.
#Post#: 120618--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Reb
Date: March 14, 2013, 4:46 pm
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It would be pretty remarkable for a college senior (Appel) to
get overslot money as a high first-rounder. But, it's
Boras--combined with a guy who maybe goes into the draft as the
clear cut top pitcher available--and Boras did pretty well for
JD Drew as a senior, way back before the slotting era.
Too early to tell if Appel will be the clear top pitcher or
whether he might actually project as a #1 ace starter type (too
optimistic?) but a guy like that would be quite a boost to the
long term pitching outlook for the organization, if we can get
him.
#Post#: 120623--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: March 14, 2013, 4:59 pm
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--- Quote from: Chris27 link ---
>
> Baez is listed at 6-0 or 6-1 and his power seems to be decent.
Frazier's looked okay in those videos too.
>
--- End Quote ---
Willie Mays was 5'10".
Hack Wilson was 5'6".
--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> One wonderful pick can make a draft. But it would be nice to
have money to sign excellent 2nd, 3rd etc picks as well. Will
be interesting to see if Houston insists on holding to
slot/underslot again. And to see whether the Cubs go superslot
again.
>
> Using last year's numbers, picks 1-4 slot at
$7.2/$6.2/$5.2/$4.2.
> The Cubs total slot should be about $10, plus the 15% allowed
overage.
>
> The Cubs could target a guy, and give him a high number that
could be used to deter Houston. Getting up up $8 is very
doable, and might be worth it if that's what it takes to get him
away from Houston.
>
--- End Quote ---
Craig, perhaps I am missing something, but suppose the Cubs like
Apple, or Frazier or anyone else, and they know that the Astros
also like the guy, and intend to take him with the first pick.
And let's suppose that the Cubs like him enough that they are
even willing to exceed slot and deal with the sanctions MLB will
impose.
So how does that help the Cubs get him if the Astros want him?
Let's say the Cubs tell Apple that they are willing to sign him
for $10M if they draft him and he signs within the week, and
Apple and his agent are absolutely gung-ho about the idea
because they know they would never do better than that.
Now, if that happens, how does that change things?
If the Astros take him, the Cub offer is no longer in the
picture, and his only choice is to accept the Astro's offer or
to sit out the season and re-enter the draft in 2014.
What am I missing?
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