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#Post#: 122588--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Chris27
Date: March 28, 2013, 9:18 pm
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Gray would be the Cubs #2 right now, in my opinion.
#Post#: 122589--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Reb
Date: March 28, 2013, 9:55 pm
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--- Quote from: Chris27 link ---
>
> Gray would be the Cubs #2 right now, in my opinion.
>
--- End Quote ---
From Keith Law's chat today:
Steve (California)
Have heard some talk about Jonathan Grey being in contention for
#1-1, and Manea falling out of the Top 10. Too rash, or trending
that way?
Klaw
I mentioned those points in a recent draft blog post - I think
that's the realistic-pessimistic view on Manaea, and I think
Gray is the alternative to Appel at 1-1 right now. Cubs fans
should be most excited about Gray, because his emergence would
mean, today, that they are guaranteed to get a top-tier college
starter who projects as at least a good #2.
#Post#: 122590--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Chris27
Date: March 28, 2013, 10:03 pm
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Matt Garrioch profiles Gray. John Sickels joined the comment
section as he was watching Gray pitch tonight.
HTML http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/3/28/4148614/2013-mlb-draft-profile-jonathan-gray-rhp-oklahoma
I don't agree with Garrioch's assessment of Gray's athleticism.
#Post#: 122593--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Deeg
Date: March 28, 2013, 10:10 pm
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Appel and Gray 1-2 is fine, but history is what it is. 50-50
for TJ or worse, no matter what their mechanics look like now.
That's why the bias towards hitters is, in general terms, a sign
that this administration really gets it.
That said, Frazier is a HS hitter and thus, projection is a
major part of the deal. And you're looking at 3-4 years until
he contributes, while Appel could be in the rotation on opening
day in 2014. That's why Theo is getting paid a lot of money.
#Post#: 122594--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Chris27
Date: March 28, 2013, 10:23 pm
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--- Quote ---
> while Appel could be in the rotation on opening day in 2014.
--- End Quote ---
Gray could be too. In fact, I think Gray could be effective in
the majors right now. He has Prior-like command with 3 more mph
on his average FB. Breaking ball is as good as Prior's as well.
Prior had more deception and thus got more swings and misses on
his FB, but then Prior probably got a higher % of those than
just about any recent pitcher. By several accounts, Appel
doesn't get a lot of hitters to swing through his FB either.
I understand your concern over health issues, but I'd hate to
pass up on a talent like this.
#Post#: 122596--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Chris27
Date: March 28, 2013, 10:30 pm
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The Garrioch link includes comments from someone who says he
used to scout for the Jays and Nationals and currently scouts
college players freelance. Here are two of his comments on Gray:
In response to whether Gray could really pass Appel:
--- Quote ---
> Yes
>
> I haven’t seen him pitch live but having scouted pitching for
colleges and a couple MLB teams I have to say that the video
posted above is one of the most intriguing mix of power and
deception I have seen in a long time.
--- End Quote ---
Then in response to Sickels' glowing assessment of Gray:
--- Quote ---
> You have to find a position player to knock him off the
throne. Maybe not the slider of Strausburg in college but close.
I think there are things here that if you had a draft with him
and Strausburg you might actually think to take Gray. Size and
frame is better; mechanics are not so screwed up timing wise as
Strausburg’s; and I think you can make the arguement that he has
a chance of having a better fastball when you consider movement.
--- End Quote ---
#Post#: 122597--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Chris27
Date: March 28, 2013, 10:42 pm
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One more thing. To elaborate on what I said earlier, Gray threw
some terrific changes tonight. Some right down the middle, some
that disappeared like Jason Bere's old Fosh pitches. Gray said
in an interview that his changeup is nasty and he wasn't
kidding. He just doesn't need it in college. He seemed to be
experimenting by throwing a bunch of them in the early innings
tonight.
#Post#: 122598--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Chris27
Date: March 28, 2013, 11:17 pm
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The entire Oklahoma game from Thursday can be seen here:
HTML http://www.soonersports.tv/video/play.jsp?content_id=25807017
I'd like to get some other opinions on what they see; tell me if
I'm lavishing too much praise on Gray.
#Post#: 122599--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: craig
Date: March 29, 2013, 12:50 am
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--- Quote from: Jes Beard link ---
>
> ....If you look at the major league pitching leaders in 2012,
of the 10 pitchers with the highest WAR for pitchers you have
the following list, to which I have added how the player was
acquired, and if by draft, then by the round when they were
drafted:
> 1.
> 2.
> 3.
> 4.
> 5.
> Sale (CHW)
> 7.
> 8.
> 9.
> 10.
>
> And the same for 2011:
> WAR for Pitchers
> 1.
> 2.
> Lee (PHI)
> 4.
> 5.
> 6.
> 7.
> Hamels (PHI)
> 9.
> 10.
>
> You know, after looking at the list, I know what the Theocracy
has said, and I am sure that they sat down and carefully looked
at things a decade or so ago when they came up with their
approach... but I am starting to wonder if perhaps more careful
use of young pitchers might have changed things more than a
little, or perhaps simply better scouting.
>
> On those two lists there are 23 pitcher positions on the lists
(with a couple of pitchers appearing twice, but I am counting
each position on the list separately), you have 3 of them who
were foreign FA signings,leaving 20 positions on the lists, and
of the 20, 23 of them, 65%, were initially 1st round draft
picks, with 7 of the 20 being picked in one of the 1st 7 slots
the year they were drafted.
>
> From that, I don't know that you can really any longer argue
that top pitchers may be as likely found at lower levels of the
draft as they once were.
>
> Appel is looking like a better draft pick to me than he was
before I actually looked at who the top pitchers were each of
the last two years and where they came from.
>
--- End Quote ---
Thanks, jes. Yes, we all know that pitchers get hurt and
pitchers fail. But your list demonstrates what we shouldn't be
too sophisticated to remember: that it's the norm, not the
exception, for a drafted pitching star to have been drafted
first round and often high first. And even on that list, their
are few non-first rounders and they often aren't in the same
class as the super-aces. (Doug Fister, for example, is not
quite the same kind of reliable ace that Verlander, Sabbathia,
Halladay, and Beckett have been over many seasons. If you want
a star pitcher, you're much more likely to get him with a top-10
pick than in the 3rd round.
The Cubs will be in an interesting place to have at least one of
Gray and Appel available. Both seem like pretty good
candidates. If you're worst case is settling for one of them,
you're not doing too badly. If you're better case is to get a
player who's even better, you're really in good luck.
#Post#: 122600--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Chris27
Date: March 29, 2013, 1:41 am
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Gray's pitch total last night was 105.
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