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#Post#: 122554--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: March 28, 2013, 6:42 pm
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--- Quote from: Playtwo link ---
>
> Jes, I can readily accept that Theo's history has been to be
reluctant to use top draft picks on starting pitchers. But was
the Red Sox organization under his leadership ever as bereft of
starting pitching prospects as is the current Cubs organization?
>
--- End Quote ---
Play, you seem to be missing a very big part of what the
Theocracy has made clear.
It is not just that they are concerned about the much greater
injury risk for pitchers than for position players, but it is
also that they believe high impact starting pitchers are more
likely to come from lower round draft picks than high impact
position players are to be found in lower rounds, and perhaps
most importantly that they have also made clear they believe
best pitchers taken in many drafts are simply not taken by
anyone in the first round.
Let me repeat the quote from McLeod:
--- Quote ---
> if you look back at the draft, you’ll also see a lot of guys
that went 1, 2, 3 that were pitchers and kind of just had
mediocre careers. So pitching comes from everywhere. Typically,
(with) your position players, the star guys come at the top of
the draft.”
--- End Quote ---
They have made clear that very similar to 2012, they are likely
to have a heavy majority of players picked in rounds 2-10 who
are pitchers, and THAT will be at least in part because of need.
First round likely will be the guy they believe is most likely
to be a heavy impact player, regardless his position.
#Post#: 122563--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Chris27
Date: March 28, 2013, 7:32 pm
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--- Quote ---
> Of course as tico noted, Appel and Gray, for as special as
they seem, are no Prior or Strasburg, either.
--- End Quote ---
I'm watching Gray again right now and let me tell you, he's
close. Very, very close.
#Post#: 122570--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: March 28, 2013, 7:53 pm
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--- Quote from: Ray link ---
>
> I think one key with regards to Appel is that he shouldn't be
very far away. I think the closer they get to the beginning of
their "window" the more valuable an upper tier pitcher who can
contribute quickly becomes. Assuming talent is at least equal
in the scouts eyes, of course. That's part of the reason I'm on
the Appel/Gray bandwagon if they grade out properly.
>
--- End Quote ---
How close they are to major league ready also will fit into the
calculation of how long a team is likely to get high productive
output from them before the arm wears out or they are likely to
suffer injury. Each added year in the minors for the pitcher is
not just one more year of wear on the arm, but one more year
when there may be an injury seriously reducing the contribution
which might be made in the majors.
--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> I think a lot of the "principles" are applicable in the
all-else-being-equal scenarios. But things are rarely equal.
Obviously if you've got a pitcher and a hitter who are equally
certain, you take the player, because his talent will last.
Tie, and perhaps anything close to a tie, goes to player. Maybe
it doesn't even need to be very close. But will it be even
remotely close to a tie this draft? As reb said, the pool of
players doesn't sound like a lot of Griffey/Arod types.
>
--- End Quote ---
We don't have to be talking about Griffey/ARod types. As I have
pointed out, if the best two prospects available to a team with
the top pick in the draft and one was a lock to be a
firstbaseman and hitter in the mold and performance level of a
Mark Grace, and the other was a lock to be a pitcher as good as
Greg Maddux, the injury risk involved would still give the nod
to Grace... and if the team later wanted to have that pitcher on
staff, they do like the Braves did and sign him when he pursues
free agency.
--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> ... it is possible that they think between Castro, Rizzo,
Baez, Almora, and Soler, that perhaps they already have a pretty
solid stock of potential star, impact, middle-of-the-order
players.
>
--- End Quote ---
It is never possible to have too many high impact, middle of the
order bats. They not only do wonders in helping you score runs,
they are easily traded to other teams which like to score runs.
--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> There are some baseball people who believe strongly in the
importance of an "ace" pitcher to front-line a staff.
>
--- End Quote ---
But the question is how you acquire them.
If you look at the major league pitching leaders in 2012, of the
10 pitchers with the highest WAR for pitchers you have the
following list, to which I have added how the player was
acquired, and if by draft, then by the round when they were
drafted:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Sale (CHW)
7.
8.
9.
10.
And the same for 2011:
WAR for Pitchers
1.
2.
Lee (PHI)
4.
5.
6.
7.
Hamels (PHI)
9.
10.
You know, after looking at the list, I know what the Theocracy
has said, and I am sure that they sat down and carefully looked
at things a decade or so ago when they came up with their
approach... but I am starting to wonder if perhaps more careful
use of young pitchers might have changed things more than a
little, or perhaps simply better scouting.
On those two lists there are 23 pitcher positions on the lists
(with a couple of pitchers appearing twice, but I am counting
each position on the list separately), you have 3 of them who
were foreign FA signings,leaving 20 positions on the lists, and
of the 20, 23 of them, 65%, were initially 1st round draft
picks, with 7 of the 20 being picked in one of the 1st 7 slots
the year they were drafted.
From that, I don't know that you can really any longer argue
that top pitchers may be as likely found at lower levels of the
draft as they once were.
Appel is looking like a better draft pick to me than he was
before I actually looked at who the top pitchers were each of
the last two years and where they came from.
#Post#: 122574--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Chris27
Date: March 28, 2013, 8:10 pm
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Jonathan Gray had a perfect game into the 7th before lousy HP
umpiring reared its ugly head. Two blown strike calls lead to
the first hit. Then the SS threw high on a slow roller for
another "hit". A double play broke up the shutout. Gray hit 101
on the next pitch.
#Post#: 122579--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Chris27
Date: March 28, 2013, 8:41 pm
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My new concern is that the Astros will take Gray.
#Post#: 122582--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Reb
Date: March 28, 2013, 8:54 pm
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I'm not sure that Theo is lumping college position players with
HS position players in terms of draft history. They're not the
same.
College guys like Teixiera, Wieters, Posey, Zimmerman, Braun,
etc have played against top competition. (I know there are some
washouts too, of course).
I think the enthusiasm for Almora was a combination of factors:
his career against international competition and his
up-the-middle defense, in addition to his offensive upside (and
exceptional makeup). Not a lot of guys like that.
As Craig notes, I think the value of an ace #1 pitcher is
enormous. There are, maybe, a dozen of those guys around? So,
if you have a chance to get a potential ace with the #2 pick,
tough to pass up. I could see doing it for a very high
probability college bat or a once in 5-7 years HS bat maybe.
Just before the Strawberry draft, one scouting director said if
had to choose between Strawberry or the entire rest of the first
round combined from pick from #2 to the end of the first
round--he'd take Strawberry over the field. What do you think?
HTML http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/history/draft/draft.jsp#season=1980&player_name=&draft_type=JR&draft_team=&draft_round=&page=1&sort_order=&sorted_by=
#Post#: 122583--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Chris27
Date: March 28, 2013, 9:00 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Gray goes the distance again: 9-2-1-1-0-12
He allowed one legit hit which only occurred after the ump
missed two strike calls. Went to a 3-ball count on two, maybe
three batters. Topped out at 101, hit 100 a few times. Velocity
dropped a bit late as he wasn't 97-98 as consistently the last
few innings. Slider was brutal and he threw about a dozen
changeups, mostly early, several of which were sublime.
Gray's allowed 2 earned runs over his last 34 innings. That
stretch includes 44 K's and 2 walks.
No pitch count given yet.
#Post#: 122584--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: ticohans
Date: March 28, 2013, 9:07 pm
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His K to BB ratio is nuts.
#Post#: 122585--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Chris27
Date: March 28, 2013, 9:07 pm
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Former ML pitcher Greg Swindell:
@KevinDunnLHN don't know. My TV didn't get the game. Did see
Jonathan Gray though. Three words. WOW
HTML https://twitter.com/GregSwindell/statuses/317456814516105216
#Post#: 122587--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: craig
Date: March 28, 2013, 9:10 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Reb link ---
>
> I'm not sure that Theo is lumping college position players
with HS position players in terms of draft history. They're not
the same....
>
--- End Quote ---
Exactly. Other than Bryant, what other college bats are even in
the discussion for #2? Meadows and Frazier might be great. And
if Frazier is a super-duper hitter, we can use a premier
long-term hitter in LF, or RF, or wherever we can fit him. But
it's hard to be a sure-bet when you're a HS bat. I'll love it
if we pick him, and if he proves to be the real deal. Or
Meadows, if we have an OF full of stud-hitters who are all
outstanding defensively and several of which could play CF,
wonderful.
But I wonder how certain and can't-miss a HS hitter will be,
performance-wise. That's up for those scouts to evaluate.
I guess I'm thinking with Appel and Gray, those are going to be
pretty much ready-now guys. And it doesn't take any scouting
projection to see them take their stuff, pretty much exactly as
it is now, and being good big-leaguers. Easy scout.
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