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#Post#: 122483--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: March 28, 2013, 12:51 pm
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Play, can you in looking thru Theo's track record of first round
draft picks find any indication of need being a factor in those
picks?
Certainly wasn't last year. They picked Almora at a time they
already had Jackson in the system, and when they had a tentative
agreement in place for Soler.
Look at the history of his picks with the Red Sox....
HTML http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_round&team_ID=BOS&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg
Perhaps you read things better than I do, but I see no
indication of "need" being a factor. In 2010, with the 20th
pick in the draft, the 2nd highest pick Theo had been able to
direct, the Red Sox took a 2B, when Pedroia was 26 years old and
already a star for the Sox.
I'm not sure what you are basing your conclusion on beyond what
YOU think they should do. I am basing my conclusion on Theo's
track record and their public comments on their approach to the
draft, both quite consistent, and neither showing any
inclination to look much, if at all, at position needs on the
roster with a first round draft pick.
#Post#: 122491--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Cubsin
Date: March 28, 2013, 1:13 pm
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Since the Cubs are spending time and money following Appel, Gray
and Manaea, it's seems safe to assume that they're not locked in
on the best position player available. None of those guys will
slip into the second round, barring major health issues.
#Post#: 122492--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Ron
Date: March 28, 2013, 1:20 pm
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Clearly their research has convinced the Cubs' decision-makers
that, in general, it's much better to take a really talented
position player with a high pick than even a near major league
ready pitcher, even if the pitcher is considered to be the
better prospect. This seems to be a very strong organizational
bias.
So I would expect them to pass on any of the available pitchers
and take the best position player unless (1) the best position
player is simply not all that promising as an impact guy, and
(2) the pitcher is a truly outstanding prospect (in all aspects
of the evaluation process these guys use now) who they also
judge to be a relatively low injury risk.
#Post#: 122493--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Playtwo
Date: March 28, 2013, 1:21 pm
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Jes, I can readily accept that Theo's history has been to be
reluctant to use top draft picks on starting pitchers. But was
the Red Sox organization under his leadership ever as bereft of
starting pitching prospects as is the current Cubs organization?
#Post#: 122498--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: ticohans
Date: March 28, 2013, 1:29 pm
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What Ron said. Obviously they're not writing off the top
pitching prospects - if they feel that Appel or Gray or whomever
really elevates themselves into clear cut top talent status,
they'll pick that guy. It only makes sense to follow those guys,
then, to see if one of them really is THAT special.
The general thrust of the front office comments suggest that, by
their calculus, it's extremely difficult for a pitcher to
elevate themselves so, given larger risks inherent in SP picks.
#Post#: 122504--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Ray
Date: March 28, 2013, 1:44 pm
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I think one key with regards to Appel is that he shouldn't be
very far away. I think the closer they get to the beginning of
their "window" the more valuable an upper tier pitcher who can
contribute quickly becomes. Assuming talent is at least equal
in the scouts eyes, of course. That's part of the reason I'm on
the Appel/Gray bandwagon if they grade out properly.
#Post#: 122528--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Reb
Date: March 28, 2013, 3:39 pm
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Think some may be reading too much into Theo's comments about
position player/pitcher as it applies to this year's first round
pick.
If draft were held today or top 6/7 guys continue to perform at
or near current level by June, seems to me that it is highly
likely that Theo will take either Appel or Gray.
Both of these guys project as a possible #1 starter, or at least
as a #2. At the moment, don't see anybody in the HS class who
projects as a Harper, Strawberry, ARod type of guy who just has
to go #1 given their upside at time of the draft. I suppose it
is possible that Meadows, a 5-tool guy, could go crazy in the
next couple of months and move into that category. But, absent
that, I think you will see Theo go with Appel or Gray---assuming
their stock stays where it is now. That could change, of
course. And, if Meadows emerges that way, he goes to Astros at
#1.
Don't see them taking a corner OF bat, Frazier or Bryant, over
Appel or Gray.
#Post#: 122544--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Cubsin
Date: March 28, 2013, 5:06 pm
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--- Quote from: Reb link ---
>
>
> Don't see them taking a corner OF bat, Frazier or Bryant, over
Appel or Gray.
>
>
--- End Quote ---
They already have so many legitimate CF prospects (Almora,
Jackson, Ha, Szczur, Martin) that I don't consider Meadows'
ability to stay there a significant plus. If Frazier or Bryant
looked like a better offensive player than Meadows, they should
take him over Meadows. Whether they'll take a pitcher or a
position player is obviously undecided at the moment. My current
preference would be Gray or Appel in round one and the best
available catching prospect in round two, with at least one more
catcher in rounds 3-7.
#Post#: 122547--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: craig
Date: March 28, 2013, 6:14 pm
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--- Quote from: ticohans link ---
>
> The most telling sentence in that article is "you take the
position player at the top."
--- End Quote ---
--- Quote ---
> So pitching comes from everywhere.
> [/color][left]Typically, (with) your position players, the
star guys come at the top of the draft.”.....[/left]
> “If you look at the history of the draft, the position players
up high are more of a sure bet if you get the good
ones[color=rgb(37, 37, 37)],” McLeod said. “Unfortunately, the
college class isn’t as strong as in some years. There are a
couple of guys that have stepped up so far this year that
certainly are putting themselves on a map as considerations up
there. But not as strong as a typical year.
--- End Quote ---
I thought McLeod's comments were really good, with an
appropriate level of nuance. There are many variables to the
whole discussion.
I think a lot of the "principles" are applicable in the
all-else-being-equal scenarios. But things are rarely equal.
Obviously if you've got a pitcher and a hitter who are equally
certain, you take the player, because his talent will last.
Tie, and perhaps anything close to a tie, goes to player. Maybe
it doesn't even need to be very close. But will it be even
remotely close to a tie this draft? As reb said, the pool of
players doesn't sound like a lot of Griffey/Arod types.
Pitchers aren't the only picks to fail. Position players up
high are more of a sure bet.... IF YOU GET THE GOOD ONES. Last
year by their words and actions they were very confident that
Almora was going to be a good one. But are there any "more of a
sure bet" players available?
As McLeod notes, "Unfortunately, the college class isn’t as
strong as in some years. There are a couple of guys that have
stepped up .... But not as strong as a typical year." Not sure
who is out there. Obviously it's up the scouting, but I could
certainly understand how guys like Bryant, Frazier, and Meadows
might not seem like safe, low-risk guys. I hope they do,
because I'd prefer to get a "more of a sure bet" "good one"
player than an injury-vulnerable pitcher. But, I think there's
a fair chance the risk with the players may be high enough so
that the risk with the pitchers seems justifiable. It's too
bad, I wish there was a griffey or ARod available.
Of course as tico noted, Appel and Gray, for as special as they
seem, are no Prior or Strasburg, either.
I don't know expect that "need" plays a strong role. But it is
possible that they think between Castro, Rizzo, Baez, Almora,
and Soler, that perhaps they already have a pretty solid stock
of potential star, impact, middle-of-the-order players.
There are some baseball people who believe strongly in the
importance of an "ace" pitcher to front-line a staff. reb, you
are in that group, no? Perhaps the Cubs won't see that sure-bet
of a player, and will see this as a unique opportunity to get
somebody for that ace role, even if he may not last forever.
While it's more likely to get a star pitcher than a star player
outside of the first round, stars of either kind are hard to
find, and Appel and Gray may seem to provide a unique
opportunity to get one.
I won't be at all surprised either way.
And, a nice thing is that I feel pretty confident that whichever
choice is made, that management will have thought it through and
will understand the risks. If they take a pitcher, it won't be
because they don't really understand how injury-vulnerable they
are.
#Post#: 122548--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: ticohans
Date: March 28, 2013, 6:20 pm
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From McLeod today:
“If we go that route (selecting a pitcher early), hopefully our
guy turns into that kind of guy (an ace). But if you look back
at the draft, you’ll also see a lot of guys that went 1, 2, 3
that were pitchers and kind of just had mediocre careers. So
pitching comes from everywhere. Typically, (with) your position
players, the star guys come at the top of the draft.”
There isn't much room to read into that - it's pretty explicit.
Recent comments from Houer and Theo I read as being similarly
explicit. I think there's a clear pattern here of our team
president, GM, and scouting director having a preference for
position player talent early in drafts, all else being equal.
No one is saying that they WON'T draft a pitcher. The suggestion
being made (by the front office itself, I may add) is that they
are going to take a position player unless a pitcher really
separates himself from the pack. I know scouts and fans have
their personal favorites, but at this point, I believe the
general consensus remains that any of Appel, Grey, Manea,
Meadows, or Frazier are legit #1 selections. If our front office
agrees with that assessment come draft day, expect a hitter
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