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#Post#: 122169--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Chris27
Date: March 25, 2013, 8:29 pm
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He's saying with all due respect to Gray, Appel's the best
player despite Appel not being as good in his last start as he
had been previously.
Having seen them both pitch now, I fail to see where Appel is
significantly better anyway.
#Post#: 122172--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: StrikeZone
Date: March 25, 2013, 10:05 pm
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I also found myself questioning that sentence.
I still think Appel is pick.
#Post#: 122421--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Chris27
Date: March 28, 2013, 3:30 am
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--- Quote ---
> If Appel wasn’t the right choice with the sixth overall pick,
why would he make sense at No. 2 a year later?
>
> “Well, it’s a different draft. It’s certainly a different
year,” McLeod said. “The way our board lined up last year – I
said it (at the time) – we simply liked Albert Almora more than
we liked Mark Appel.
>
> “That’s no slight to Mark Appel. (Like I said), you take the
position player at the top. For us, we got a kid we thought was
going to be a premium centerfielder and hit in the middle of the
order. Those guys are hard to find.
>
> “Mark certainly (is) someone (who’s) proven to be a
first-round guy. He’s gone out and done well so far this year.
We’ve spent a lot of time with him and we will continue to.”
>
> The Cubs will have a representative at every start for each of
the college pitchers they’re considering with the No. 2 pick.
>
> Epstein recently ducked out of camp to watch Gray in Norman,
Okla., as part of the blanket coverage. Special assistant Tim
Wilken, amateur scouting director Jaron Madison and national
crosscheckers Sam Hughes, Matt Dorey and Ron Tostenson will all
get multiple looks at those pitchers.
>
> Earlier this month, general manager Jed Hoyer was part of the
group that went over to Surprise Stadium for a college
tournament that included Arkansas (Ryne Stanek) and Gonzaga
(Marco Gonzales). When the Cubs visit the Atlanta Braves during
Final Four weekend, two dynamic high school outfielders (Austin
Meadows and Clint Frazier) will be in the area.
--- End Quote ---
HTML http://www.csnchicago.com/blog/cubs-talk/no-2-overall-pick-cubs-hope-hit-their-verlander
#Post#: 122423--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Ray
Date: March 28, 2013, 6:33 am
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You would think that article would address the fact that Appel
looks to have improved. It isn't as cut and dried as different
year/different board I would think. I'm by no means an expert,
but I've changed my mind about him as well. Still a long way,
but I think he'd be a quality pick right now.
and, now, after posting, I'm bout to click the link and read the
article, rather than the other way around.
#Post#: 122426--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: March 28, 2013, 7:24 am
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Lots of pitching prospects are quality picks at the time, but
injury is far more likely to them than position players, not
just before they reach the majors, but afterward.
If you have a pitching prospect believed to be the next Greg
Maddux and a hitting prospect believed to be the Next Mark Grace
both available with the top pick in the draft, the vastly higher
likelihood the pitching prospect will break down before reaching
the majors, or break down early in his career such as Prior did,
make the Grace prospect a far better pick.
#Post#: 122458--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: ticohans
Date: March 28, 2013, 10:33 am
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The most telling sentence in that article is "you take the
position player at the top."
To me that indicates that they had Appel rated extremely high,
perhaps as highly as Almora. But given the relative risk of a
hitter versus a pitcher, they decided to go with the hitter. If
that is their philosophy, it dramatically affects the way we
view the upcoming draft.
Appel and Gray, for as special as they seem, are no Prior or
Strasburg. And both Prior and Strasburg have sustained massive
injuries. One's career is ruined. The other still pitches. Given
that the pitching talent in this draft has not separated itself
from the hitters, I'll be shocked if we don't take a bat at #2.
#Post#: 122467--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Playtwo
Date: March 28, 2013, 11:16 am
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My guess is that they're leaning towards taking a starter. Need
has to factor in.
#Post#: 122470--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: ticohans
Date: March 28, 2013, 11:46 am
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Theo recently made a comment about building farm system quality
through quantity. Unless there is a CLEAR #1 choice, ala
Prior/Strasburg, I think this front office recognizes that
pitchers are enough of a crapshoot that you're probably as
likely to get a solid starter out of the 3rd round as the 1st.
Even with "once-in-a-generation talents," our own team history
shows quite painfully how risky pitchers are. Prior was supposed
to be textbook, as in you look up "pitcher" in the dictionary
and see a picture of Prior.
I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a draft this year similar to
last year: highest rated position player taken 1st, followed by
a TON of pitching. That seems consistent with their philosophy
of BPA, quality through quantity, and recognizing the inherent
riskiness of pitching vs hitting prospects.
#Post#: 122471--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: March 28, 2013, 11:47 am
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--- Quote from: Playtwo link ---
>
> My guess is that they're leaning towards taking a starter.
Need has to factor in.
>
--- End Quote ---
The greatest need is that the draft pick end up being productive
at the major league level and does not end up a bust. The best
way to assure that is not to take a pitcher.
HTML http://www.csnchicago.com/blog/cubs-talk/no-2-overall-pick-cubs-hope-hit-their-verlander
--- Quote ---
> Almost a decade ago, senior vice president of scouting and
player development Jason McLeod reunited with Theo Epstein in
the Boston Red Sox front office and their analysis still
influences their thinking at Clark and Addison.
>
> “We had crunched a lot of NCAA data on the performance side of
things and then we just started looking at it on the draft
side,” McLeod recalled. “What is the draft telling us over the
years? Where is the talent coming from? What areas? What
positions? There are just so many variables with pitching,
injuries, some of the innings these guys have to throw. Everyone
would love to hit on a Justin Verlander at No. 2 overall.
>
> “If we go that route, hopefully our guy turns into that kind
of guy. But if you look back at the draft, you’ll also see a lot
of guys that went 1, 2, 3 that were pitchers and kind of just
had mediocre careers. So pitching comes from everywhere.
Typically, (with) your position players, the star guys come at
the top of the draft.”
--- End Quote ---
Theo took over the Red Sox late in 2002. He was responsible for
every Red Sox draft from the June 2003 draft thru June of 2011,
and then last year the Cubs draft, so there is a considerable
history to look at, and then also a considerable history of his
own for him to consider and reflect on in June of this year when
deciding who to draft, and who he and his scouting staff have
had the best track record in scouting and projecting in the
past.
In 23 first round draft picks with the Red Sox, he took 11
pitchers. With the three 1st round draft picks last year with
the Cubs he took 2, but both of those were supplemental picks --
43rd and 56th.
With the 23 first round draft picks under the Red Sox, only 2
were top 20 picks, one a 17th and the other a 19th. And of the
11 pitchers taken, the best of them to date has been Clay
Buchholz, with the overall major league record of those pitchers
being 66-65. This means that to date we have only seen Theo
responsible for one draft with a top ten pick, and he went with
Almora over a pitcher last year.
No doubt they will heavily scout the top arms in the draft.
Also no doubt they will heavily scout the top position players
in the draft.
There is considerable doubt that what position the Cubs need
filled now will play any role in what player they will draft in
June.
#Post#: 122473--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2013 Draft
DIR By: Playtwo
Date: March 28, 2013, 12:03 pm
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Need will be a factor, no doubt. As it should be. Likely not
the major factor.
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