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#Post#: 209482--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: davep
Date: January 27, 2015, 2:48 pm
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--- Quote from: jacey1 link ---
>
> wow davep....you must be feeling good about the coming season
:)
>
--- End Quote ---
I will give a real prediction at the end of spring training.
The central division could be be the strongest in the National
League, and it is quite possible that the Cubs, Cards, Pirates
and Brewers beat each other up enough to reduce the record of
the winner.
And of course, everything depends upon the kids on offense, and
it is likely that some will falter in spring training. But I
wouldn't rule out that many wins at this point.
#Post#: 209483--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: guest61
Date: January 27, 2015, 2:50 pm
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85-77
#Post#: 209491--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: jbn
Date: January 27, 2015, 4:37 pm
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70 wins.
Baez 260 K's
#Post#: 209494--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: guest61
Date: January 27, 2015, 4:41 pm
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If he played everyday I could see 300.
#Post#: 209502--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: craig
Date: January 27, 2015, 5:13 pm
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--- Quote from: davep link ---
> ....And of course, everything depends upon the kids on
offense, and it is likely that some will falter in spring
training. But I wouldn't rule out that many wins at this point.
--- End Quote ---
You've made that point before, Dave, and I don't think I agree.
Everything does NOT depend on the kids, or at least not on kids
Baez and Alcantara. I think both Baez and Alcantara could
hypothetically look as lost as in September, but the team could
still be a playoff team. The bullpen might be terrific and the
rotation very good. Even if Baez and Alcantara contribute
nothing, the offense with Rizzo and Castro and Montero and
Fowler and La Stella and Coghlan still has a chance to be
playoff-sufficient if the pitching turns out favorably.
The two "kids" who are relatively pivotal are Soler and Bryant.
But Soler has already been very good. It's reasonable to not
only hope but expect him to be reasonably good next year, with
the chance to be very good.
That really only leaves kid Bryant needing to be decent for us
to have a realistic chance to be pretty good.
#Post#: 209505--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: craig
Date: January 27, 2015, 5:19 pm
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I think a lot of teams would be willing to have their chances
hinge on Bryant being reasonably decent going forward.
#Post#: 209522--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: January 27, 2015, 6:03 pm
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--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> But Soler has already been very good. It's reasonable to not
only hope but expect him to be reasonably good next year, with
the chance to be very good.
>
--- End Quote ---
Eliminate Soler's first four games and here is his hitting line:
.243/.284/.432/.716
I also hope he does well, but there is ample reason for serious
concern about him in 2015.
#Post#: 209523--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: davep
Date: January 27, 2015, 6:05 pm
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It is certainly an overstatement to place all the uncertainty on
the kids. But I think the risk of the offense failing (being
lower than expected) is greater than the risk of the pitching
failing. You have mentioned several times that bull pen
performance is very uncertain from year to year. And it is.
But I think there is far more uncertainty in the projected
performance of prospects than there is in the bull pen, and far
more than in the starting pitchers. I think there is a greater
likelihood of Bryant and Soler underperforming than there is of
Lester and Arrieta underperforming (ignoring the possiblilty of
injury to any of the four).
I have already assumed that Baez will not be a substantial
performer this upcoming year, and I have assumed that Alcantara
will not reach anywhere his ceiling in the upcoming year. If
that is true, it is almost mandatory that both Soler and Bryant
be top performers in order for the offense to carry the team.
Regardless, we should have a better idea of expected performance
of just about everybody by the end of spring training.
#Post#: 209527--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: craig
Date: January 27, 2015, 6:57 pm
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Yeah, that's fair, Dave. I think it's a given that the offense
isn't going to carry the team. The pitching will need to be the
strength, but I don't think it's unreasonable that the offense
can be decent. Last year, it certainly was not.
I think our bullpen is so deep that I'll be really disappointed
if it isn't quite good. And the rotation might not be good, but
it's got a chance to be pretty strong, I think, especially if
it's backed by a good, deep bullpen such that the starters don't
get stretched too deep.
If the pitching is really good, it doesn't take a great offense
to finish among the top ten teams and get into the playoffs.
There aren't ten teams in the game that have above-average
offense, above-average rotation, and above-average relief. If
both rotation and bullpen are above average, the hitting doesn't
need to be more than average to make top ten.
I agree that both Soler and Bryant both need to be OK. jes
mentioned Soler posting .716 OPS after his first 4 games. That
probably wouldn't be very good. But if both Soler and Bryant
could support .750+ OPS seasons, I think the offense could be
average enough to support good rotation/pen and get into the
wildcard. Maybe better.
#Post#: 209529--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: davep
Date: January 27, 2015, 7:16 pm
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I think that we are looking at it from two completely different
viewpoints.
I will be rather disappointed if the Cubs totally fail to get to
the playoffs, and extremely disappointed if they are not within
reach of the playoffs for most of the year. But I think that in
order for them to have one of the better teams in the playoffs,
based upon personnel, they will have to have very good
performances by most of the kids, as well as a career year by
one or more of the "veterans" on the team. Put another way, I
think there is a reasonable chance that the Cubs will have a
team that performs about the 10th best in baseball. Having a
team that performs about 2nd best will require everything to
break perfectly, and is extremely against the odds.
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