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#Post#: 130543--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: Cactus
Date: May 15, 2013, 10:22 pm
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--- Quote ---
>
> 59 - JeffH
> 63 - Strikezone
> 65- Chiman
> 65 - Jes Beard
> 66 - Robb
> 67 - Andy MacFail
> 67- Cubsin
> 67 - FITS
> 68 - grrrrlacher
> 68 - Dihard
> 69 - papa smurf
> 69 - Santo4HofF
> 69 - JR
> 70 - bitterman
> 70 - jacey1
> 71 - Cactus
> 71 - Deeg
> 71 - shasson
> 72 - ticohans
> 73 - DelMarFan
> 74 - Ray
> 75 - Ron Green
> 78 - brjones
> 81 - AZSteve
> 82 - davep
>
--- End Quote ---
Wednesday night’s game marks the one-quarter point of the
season. The Cubs record of 17-23 projects to 69-93 for the
season.
#Post#: 135953--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: Robb
Date: June 23, 2013, 1:39 pm
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The Cubs are on target to win 66 games yet their starters have
overachieved. What will happen when that strength returns to
the mean through trade/law of averages/injury? I'm starting to
think my prediction of 66 wins was generous.
#Post#: 135957--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: brjones
Date: June 23, 2013, 2:34 pm
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If we're going to play the law of averages game, then at some
point, the Cubs are going to start winning more than 33% of 1
run games.
#Post#: 135965--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: Robb
Date: June 23, 2013, 5:12 pm
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You're remembering these are the Cubs right?
#Post#: 135995--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: StrikeZone
Date: June 23, 2013, 11:57 pm
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--- Quote from: brjones link ---
>
> If we're going to play the law of averages game, then at some
point, the Cubs are going to start winning more than 33% of 1
run games.
>
--- End Quote ---
With that bullpen?
#Post#: 136002--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: brjones
Date: June 24, 2013, 9:41 am
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The outcome of a one run game is mostly random. Just like the
Orioles didn't have a magical, sustainable skill to win one run
games last year, the Cubs don't have the opposite "skill" of
losing one run games.
#Post#: 136013--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: June 24, 2013, 12:48 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: brjones link ---
>
> The outcome of a one run game is mostly random.
>
--- End Quote ---
Uh.... not really.
Teams which have bad bullpens have trouble holding onto saves
when they are on the road and will lose games by one run when
the run scores without anyone out, or only one out or even with
two outs, or they will come back in the top of the 9th, but
still fall one run short of tying it.
In other words, they will score fewer runs, on fewer outs. The
better team, the winning team, would often end up scoring more
than the one run needed to win it if they played out all 27 of
their outs.
In other words, the game is set up so bad teams lose by "just
one run" far more often than they would if games were played out
fully.
If games were in fact played out fully (and with the winning
team continuing to try to score more runs until the last out),
bad teams (like the Cubs) would lose no more games, but they
would lose fewer of them by just one run. If every out
available in a game were played out, THEN there might be some
randomness to one-run losses.
But that is not the case.
#Post#: 137214--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: Cactus
Date: July 3, 2013, 12:50 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Cactus link ---
>
> How many games will the Cubs win in 2013?
>
> 59 - JeffH
> 63 - Strikezone
> 65- Chiman
> 65 - Jes Beard
> 66 - Robb
> 67 - Andy MacFail
> 67- Cubsin
> 67 - FITS
> 68 - grrrrlacher
> 68 - Dihard
> 69 - papa smurf
> 69 - Santo4HofF
> 69 - JR
> 70 - bitterman
> 70 - jacey1
> 71 - Cactus
> 71 - Deeg
> 71 - shasson
> 72 - ticohans
> 73 - DelMarFan
> 74 - Ray
> 75 - Ron Green
> 78 - brjones
> 81 - AZSteve
> 82 - davep
>
--- End Quote ---
A 35-46 record at the half way mark is about what many of us
expected.
#Post#: 137234--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: July 3, 2013, 8:44 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Cactus link ---
>
> A 35-46 record at the half way mark is about what many of us
expected.
>
--- End Quote ---
Yes, it is. And that would include many of us who predicted
less than 70 wins for the season. We are now beginning to make
trades of players who are at all productive, meaning that just
like last year, the 2nd half record is likely to be uglier than
the first half. Last year the Cubs reached the halfway point at
31-50, and then went 30-51 the rest of the year, but the 2nd
half also benefited from a Rizzo callup. This year there is no
similarly productive hitter in the minors to improve things.
#Post#: 137237--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: brjones
Date: July 3, 2013, 8:57 am
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I predict that even with some selling off, the Cubs will be
better than 35-46 the rest of the way, and they'll finish
somewhere in the 72-75 win range. They've been a far better
team than their record shows in the first half...so even with
some selling off, they can be better than that in the second
half.
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