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#Post#: 121584--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: brjones
Date: March 20, 2013, 9:52 am
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If we're recording these and are going to look back at them
throughout the season, we really need two projections: pace
before the trade deadline, and actual win total. As constituted
right now, I think they are about a 78 win team. But once
they're forced to start one or two of Rusin, Raley, or Loux
after the deadline, Soriano's bat is gone, and the bullpen loses
depth after Marmol is traded, they're not going to be as good.
In the end, they'll end up with about 74 wins.
#Post#: 121585--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: Deeg
Date: March 20, 2013, 10:04 am
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When I hear predictions of 78 or 81 wins coming from this roster
- deadline fire sale or no - I'm reminded of Jerry looking at
George and saying "I don't see architecture coming from you."
Where does this roster get close to .500? There's zero reason
to think the offense will be meaningfully better than 2012 -
which means it'll be awful. Garza is out at least a month, and
after that is anyone's guess. Baker? Pray it's a month, but it
could be the season. Feldman stinks but at least he's healthy
and doesn't stink as bad as the likes of Raley and Rusin. Maybe
Samardzjia proves 2012 wasn't a career year, maybe he doesn't.
The only area that looks like it could be significantly improved
is the bullpen - but that gets you improvement into the
two-digit loss column, and maybe to 70 wins. Not much more.
The franchise is headed in the right direction. Theo seems to
be making progress for the long haul. But for now? I just
don't see it.
#Post#: 121589--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: brjones
Date: March 20, 2013, 11:23 am
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--- Quote from: Deeg link ---
>
> There's zero reason to think the offense will be meaningfully
better than 2012 - which means it'll be awful.
>
--- End Quote ---
Well, let's go position-by-position:
- First Base: Rizzo is a year older and should be better. 2013
> 2012.
- Second Base: Barney is Barney. Push.
- Shortstop: Castro is a year older and should be better. 2013
> 2012.
- Third base: Still likely to be awful. Valbuena was the best
performer of the group last year, so you could see a little
improvement just by not giving ABs to Mather or Vitters. Still,
this is a push.
- Outfield #1: Soriano is a year older and should be declining.
2013 < 2012.
- Outfield #2: DeJesus is a year older and should be declining.
2013 < 2012.
- Outfield #3: Schierholtz and Hairston aren't exciting, but are
competent...possibly good enough to be roughly league average in
RF. They're taking the ABs given to mainly awful players last
year: Mather, Byrd, LaHair after the league had figured him out,
Baker, and Campana, with a few league average-ish PAs turned in
by Reed Johnson. This is a massive upgrade, 2013 >>> 2012.
- Catcher: Castillo can reasonably be expected to be a
.250/.320/.400 hitter this year, and has a little bit of upside.
With a little luck, he'll be around a league average starter.
Navarro is a perfectly capable backup, who should ensure that
the Cubs at least get anti-awful performance out of the position
if Castillo bombs. Soto/Clevenger/Hill/Lalli/Recker provided
nothing resembling anti-awful performance. Another big upgrade,
2013 >> 2012.
So two positions that should be major upgrades (just because the
names aren't exciting doesn't mean the upgrades aren't huge),
and two that are a push. The improvements from Rizzo and Castro
should cancel out the declines of Soriano and DeJesus, although
there is a significant chance that one or both of the young
players could really break out as true stars. The lineup is
better. Not good by any stretch of the imagination...but good
enough to move up to 11th or 12th in the league instead of dead
last.
--- Quote ---
>
> Garza is out at least a month, and after that is anyone's
guess. Baker? Pray it's a month, but it could be the season.
Feldman stinks but at least he's healthy and doesn't stink as
bad as the likes of Raley and Rusin. Maybe Samardzija proves
2012 wasn't a career year, maybe he doesn't.
>
--- End Quote ---
The big thing with the rotation is that a full one third of the
schedule was started by the following group last year: Volstad,
Germano, Rusin, Raley, Coleman, Wells, Berken. That is one
third of the schedule pitched by guys who didn't belong in the
major leagues. If that caliber of pitcher starts that many
games again in 2013, then yes, they're going to be 95+ loss bad
again. But that's not likely. Limit that group to 5-10 starts
(or less) in 2013, and you're adding 5 wins easily.
It's worth noting that this team was on pace for ~70 wins last
year through the deadline, and stayed roughly on that same pace
in games started by Samardzija and Wood. But Samardzija and
Wood only pitched about 25% of the games after July 31...so it
was the 40ish win pace from the other 75% of games killed them.
--- Quote ---
>
> The only area that looks like it could be significantly
improved is the bullpen - but that gets you improvement into the
two-digit loss column, and maybe to 70 wins.
>
--- End Quote ---
By most measures, the Cubs' bullpen was the worst in the majors
in 2012. Take Fangraphs, which has the bullpen at 1.5 wins
below replacement, #30 in MLB. #29 was the Mets, at 0.1 win
below replacement. #28 was the Angels at 0.9 win above
replacement. So by just improving to 28th in the league, the
Cubs could add 2-3 wins (and that's assuming that WAR is
somewhat accurate for bullpens...given the number of high
leverage innings they pitch, it probably isn't accurate, and the
2-3 win estimate is low). Getting to average/slightly below
adds 5+ wins to the team in 2013.
Bottom line: there was a lot of low-hanging fruit for the front
office this offseason. The rotation, bullpen, third outfield
spot, catcher, and third base were all so bad last year that
just improving to ~20th in the majors is a massive improvement.
And except for third base, they succeeded in getting respectable
at all positions. That should add a lot of wins.
#Post#: 121600--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: papa smurf
Date: March 20, 2013, 12:23 pm
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i will go with 69 wins
#Post#: 121606--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: Chiman
Date: March 20, 2013, 12:37 pm
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65 wins
#Post#: 121611--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: davep
Date: March 20, 2013, 12:42 pm
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82 wins
#Post#: 121614--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: mO
Date: March 20, 2013, 12:50 pm
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105 - this is the year
#Post#: 121616--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: DelMarFan
Date: March 20, 2013, 12:52 pm
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I'll go with 73 wins
#Post#: 121619--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: jacey1
Date: March 20, 2013, 1:32 pm
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70 victories
#Post#: 121620--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: Cubsin
Date: March 20, 2013, 1:39 pm
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I was going to wait until Opening Day, but with Garza, Baker and
Stewart all on the DL for the foreseeable future, another July
fire sale seems inevitable, so I'll go with 67.
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