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#Post#: 115274--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: CurtOne
Date: January 28, 2013, 5:48 pm
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I'm waiting for Beerfan to vote so I know which was to go.
#Post#: 115302--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: Cubsin
Date: January 28, 2013, 10:31 pm
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I agree. We might trade Marmol, Soriano, Garza and DeJesus on
the last day of Spring Training. I'll make my prediction on
Opening Day.
#Post#: 115426--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: JBN
Date: January 29, 2013, 5:42 pm
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If they are bad: 59-103
If they are good: 60-102.
#Post#: 117063--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: brjones
Date: February 15, 2013, 8:35 am
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These don't really mean much, but just for fun...Baseball
Prospectus just released their first playoff odds report of the
year. The Cubs have about a 1 in 8 chance of being a playoff
team, and about an 8.3% chance of reaching the division
series...that sounds about right. BP has them at 77.5 wins in
last place, but only about a win and a half behind the Brewers
in third place, and just over 5 wins behind the Cardinals in
second place. They have 7 teams with lower playoff odds than
the Cubs.
Again, doesn't really mean anything, but kind of fun to see at
this point in spring training.
HTML http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
#Post#: 117066--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: brjones
Date: February 15, 2013, 8:59 am
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Also, it should be noted...since Baseball Prospectus uses
multiple years of past performance as part of the equation for
projecting future results, Samardzija is projected to have a
4.56 ERA (worst in the rotation). Rizzo's forecast is fairly
pedestrian as well (.255/.322/.465; most other projection
systems have him a low-mid .800s OPS). Despite the very
conservative forecasts in both cases, they still have the Cubs
at 77-78 wins for 2013. Adjust the forecast for those two
players to be more in line with expectations (and forecasts
everywhere else), and you have roughly a .500 projection.
#Post#: 118767--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: AndyMacFAIL
Date: March 1, 2013, 7:38 pm
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67-95
#Post#: 118802--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: Deeg
Date: March 2, 2013, 1:01 am
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1 in 8 for the postseason? If there's a mid-year contraction
and we lose about 8 teams from the NL, that sounds about right.
#Post#: 121406--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: bitterman
Date: March 19, 2013, 3:03 am
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70 wins. Probably. The pen should get them a few more wins
than last year, but this is a terrible baseball team.
#Post#: 121464--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: StrikeZone
Date: March 19, 2013, 12:32 pm
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OK, after the latest Scott Baker injury news, I am afraid I'm
gonna have to cut back my prediction to 63-99 due to the
injuries to the starting rotation they've already suffered.
The offense is going to struggle again.
#Post#: 121466--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: brjones
Date: March 19, 2013, 12:36 pm
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Sticking with 78 wins...or at least 78 win pace through July, at
which point they trade off a few pieces and probably end up in
the 72-75 win range in the end.
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