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#Post#: 115154--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: January 27, 2013, 11:54 am
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--- Quote from: JIGGY link ---
>
> Me saying they're a sub .500 team means Im drinking kool-aid?
I dont think so. They're quite a bit better than they were last
year.
>
--- End Quote ---
Thinking the Cubs are likely to finish within 5 games of .500
likely does. Last year they had four starters who either
performed at ace level for much of the first half of the season,
or (in Garza's case) were quite reasonably expected to perform
at that level.... and yet they stunk.
This years starting rotation does not have four starters who you
would expect to perform as well as Maholm/Garza/Smarz/Dempster
did the first half of 2012. And when two of them did well, they
were traded, and if Garza had stayed healthy, he also would have
been.
You can expect the same thing in 2013.
And while the Cubs are not likely to give quite so many AB in
2013 as they did to outmakers like Jackson and Vitters, they
also are very unlikely to get close to the production out of
Soriano they got in 2012.
This team is very unlikely to even sniff at .500 by season's
end.
#Post#: 115160--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: January 27, 2013, 12:38 pm
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Disagreement = being a dickhead.
Welcome to jiggyland.
#Post#: 115165--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: Playtwo
Date: January 27, 2013, 2:53 pm
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Disagreeing doesn't preclude one from being a dickhead.
#Post#: 115174--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: January 27, 2013, 6:06 pm
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Play, that is certainly true, but can you look at my post and
tell me what in it might meet Jiggy's description, a
description he seems not to even have had the stones to leave
up?
#Post#: 115184--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: Playtwo
Date: January 27, 2013, 7:10 pm
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I don't see anything obnoxious in that particular post.
#Post#: 115185--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: Deeg
Date: January 27, 2013, 7:13 pm
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I really don't see where the Cubs are significantly better on
paper. Offensively they could easily be worse - Soriano almost
certainly will be, and they haven't materially upgraded
themselves at any position except having Rizzo for a full
season. You've plugged in Jackson for Dempster, and added
considerable depth of middle-class pitchers who are certainly an
upgrade over the scraps we relied on last season after the
break, but the Cubs are likely to have a pitching fire sale in
the summer again anyway, and the high minors offers little to no
more help than it did last season.
The Cubs were basically a 70-74 win team before the fire sale
last year. They might be a 72-76 win team this time, but figure
at least 3 pitchers will be dealt, maybe even the likes of Garza
and Marmol, along with one or more of their veteran position
players. I think anything over 70 is pretty optimistic.
#Post#: 115188--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: January 27, 2013, 7:48 pm
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If the Theocracy wants to win as many games as possible in 2013,
I could see up to 85 wins without any major surprises, 90 if
everything broke the Cubs way, and as few as 72 or 73 if they
had a bit of bad luck.
But I don't see the Theocracy making any particular effort to
win games in 2013, particularly when any such effort would be at
the expense of improving the team in later years and for an
extended period.
Pitchers who do better than expected (other than Smardz) are
likely to be traded.
It will likely be another long and ugly season. And,
unfortunately, one after which we start talking about 2016 and
not 2015 when they start making a serious run.
#Post#: 115191--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: brjones
Date: January 27, 2013, 8:44 pm
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The Cubs should be better on offense this year. C and CF were
black holes last year, and they shouldn't be this year.
Schierholtz/Hairston should be at least as good in RF as DeJesus
was. Everywhere else has stayed the same, and Soriano is the
only one is is likely to decline (while Rizzo and Castro are
likely to improve).
The rotation should be better early in the first half just
because Volstad won't take 9 starts in the fifth spot.
Samardzija will be better because he won't start playing around
with a curveball that gets pounded for the month of June.
Jackson won't be as good as Dempster was, but it won't offset
the gains from Samardzija and the 5th spot. Garza/Baker should
be roughly as good as Garza/Maholm.
And the rotation should be better in the second half because it
should have, at minimum, Samardzija, Jackson, Wood, and
Villanueva. Maybe Vizcaino. And the front office made it clear
they were willing to talk extension with Baker and/or Feldman if
they perform.
The bullpen will be the biggest improvement. The whole bullpen
outside Camp and Russell was awful in 2012. But Marmol seemed
to put it back together in the second half, and will hopefully
be better. Fujikawa and Villanueva will be huge improvements.
So will Wood or Feldman once Baker gets healthy.
78 wins if nothing changes. But there has been enough smoke
this offseason that I won't believe they're done until Bourn is
off the market.
#Post#: 115201--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: Deeg
Date: January 28, 2013, 3:32 am
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Castro had his worst OPS as a pro last season and he doesn't
seem especially coachable, so to say he improves is a crapshoot.
Maybe, maybe not.
The bullpen is the biggest improvement, I agree. But Sharky is
another guy who might or might not be able to duplicate what he
did last year. I just don't see it - this looks like a slightly
better but still middling pitching staff (assuming Garza is not
damaged goods) with possibly the weakest offense in the NL.
72-76 wins if there's no fire sale, but I wouldn't be rooting
for the Cubs to think they're building their future by signing
guys like Feldman to extensions.
#Post#: 115259--------------------------------------------------
Re: Predictions
DIR By: DelMarFan
Date: January 28, 2013, 4:50 pm
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Too soon for predictions. Cactus has it right.
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