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#Post#: 523481--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘26
By: Reb Date: January 16, 2026, 5:38 pm
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[quote author=ticohans link=topic=663.msg523478#msg523478
date=1768604781]
Cubs can easily keep Shaw and Hoerner, get Shaw 450 PA’s as a
Zobrist-type in good situations for him this year……
[/quote]
Absent a serious injury in the IF, I have a hard time seeing how
Shaw gets close to 450 PAs.
Bregman might well start 150 games at 3B. He hates to DH (14 DH
starts in 9 seasons). Hoerner had 153 starts at 2B last season
and is not going to want to sit much in his walk season. Swanson
started 159 games at SS last season. That's what Dansby does. He
plays.
Hard for me to see Shaw playing much at 1B or DH. Sparingly,
would guess. Would have to hit a lot to play much there. Austin
will likely get PAs at 1B and seems like Busch figures to start
more vs. some lefties than did in 2025. Shaw at DH? Don’t see
it.
Corner OF? Never played as a pro, did not play there at the
Cape, played handful of games early at Maryland and none final
season. Don’t see it except sparingly, if want to work him there
in spring training.
Isn’t it asking a lot of him to work out at 2B AND learn the OF,
on top of maintaining his skills at 3B? Takes work to stay a
good 3B when just learned the position. Not crazy about this.
Shaw would need to start close to 100 games to get to 450 PAs.
Where?
#Post#: 523483--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘26
By: CurtOne Date: January 16, 2026, 5:43 pm
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Why would asking Shaw to practice a bit at 1st base do anything
but enhance his value? It's another way to get him into the
lineup and get a regular some rest. If he can't do it, nothing
is lost. JMO
#Post#: 523484--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘26
By: CurtOne Date: January 16, 2026, 5:44 pm
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Considering the normal sophomore jinx, why do you 450 PA'S?
#Post#: 523487--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘26
By: Deeg Date: January 16, 2026, 6:38 pm
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Shaw hasn't proved he's a bat you actually want to get into the
lineup. If he's around as a super sub, he can start when guys
need rest and that's enough. If he proves he's something more
than last year you can rest guys more often. This is not a
problem unless Shaw decides to make it one.
#Post#: 523490--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘26
By: craig Date: January 16, 2026, 8:35 pm
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[quote author=Reb link=topic=663.msg523479#msg523479
date=1768605183]...I like Shaw very nuch. Think will have a good
career. But once Hoyer decided on Bregman for next five years as
Cubs 3B, think that Shaw’s days as a Cub are numbered.
So, for me, the question is when is the best time to trade him?
Might be now, coming off a strong offensive 2nd half and a
stellar defensive season. Would only trade him for a very good
return—his actual value, such as very promising young SP or
outfielder who can bang with lots of years of control. [/quote]
Later is best.
1. *IF* he hits, his value will go up, way up. Teams will know
he's a starter-caliber hitter without a starting spot. You'll
get a much better return next winter than you'd get today, when
his ability to hit is uncertain.
2. He's got an invaluable role on a team that's trying to win.
Chance to play a huge Zobrist role on this Nowacrat team.
Trading him creates a big hole, and I'm not sure who's left to
replace that roster spot. Nicky Lopez or Brujan, yes, but I
want somebody good this year! :):)
3. We don't know that Hoerner will re-sign, or that Hoyer will
want to pay him lush with a bundle of early-career guys vaulting
up the arb-cycle salary inflation.
Keeping him now is win-win-win. Better for 2026; and better for
2027 and beyond, either way that Hoerner goes.
Counterarguments to myself:
1. what if he doesn't hit? Last year .228 with sub-.300 OBP
and sub-.700 OPS, and lots worse in the playoffs. If he stalls
or regresses, we'll wish we'd traded him high.
2. Buildican: What if you trade him now for some talented
minor-league pitcher, who doesn't give us anything much this
Nowacrat year, but improves and grows in value over the year
even more than Shaw's value does (or doesn't); but is then ready
to give us 6 good club-controlled Buildican years starting in
2027? Like, if Cubs were to trade Shaw for the Boston Early
guy, or somebody better, that might be much less useful this
year. But we might be super glad for years after? We've got
Taillon, Shota, and Boyd this year; but we may be glad to clear
off all three, and free up $55-60M, next winter, and having
another young guy besides Wiggins to plug in might be really
long-term great.
#Post#: 523492--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘26
By: Ron Date: January 16, 2026, 9:13 pm
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I saw a clip on facebook from an interview at the convention in
which Shaw discussed the effect of the trade on his role. He
said, in essence, that the Cubs have been very transparent with
him and he expects to play in the outfield and the infield to
give other players a break. Said he'd played a lot in the
outfield in the past. If he was upset he did a good job of
hiding it.
#Post#: 523493--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘26
By: craig Date: January 16, 2026, 11:08 pm
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I think he's a really enthusiastic, hard-working type guy. It's
a new challenge for him.
Here'e an
article:
HTML https://kdhnews.com/sports/baseball/matt-shaw-is-preparing-for-a-super-utility-role-with-the-cubs-in-the-wake/article_c4d2282b-5e86-5466-869c-2fd92e4d64bc.html
""The team knows me good enough at this point to know I just
want to be prepared when the season comes around." “Of course I
immediately have questions like ‘Am I going to go here? Am I
going to go there?’” ... Shaw is preparing for a
super-utility role. In addition to backing up Bregman at third
and Nico Hoerner at second, Shaw also is expected to play in the
outfield....
“I played outfield growing up a lot, so I look forward to
running around out there,” he said. “Outfield's definitely fun.
And the at-bat stuff, I think there's at-bats there, and
obviously it's up to me as it's up to all the guys to earn their
spots and to play well.”
Those seem like perfect answers. Cubs were transparent, he
understands 2b/3b/OF. He's played a fair amount of 2b, so
that's not really new. Outfield, his speed will help, and he's
athletic.
But "the at-bat stuff, ... it's up to me...". Exactly. Earn
your AB's.
#Post#: 523495--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘26
By: Reb Date: January 17, 2026, 12:14 am
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Never had a any doubt whatsoever that Shaw will work hard in
whatever role Cubs ask him to fill.
Indeed, that’s one reason I said earlier that it was “bunk” when
Keith Law said Shaw was resistant to coaching from Cubs brass.
But he would be better off playing 3B every day elsewhere and
building a career. Guessing that he knows that but not his
choice. Not going to be the kid complaining and disrupting a
club trying to win the WS.
Would like to see someone here add up the games started that
Shaw plausibly will get such that analogous to a Zobrist role.
Do the math. Genuinely curious how you get there.
#Post#: 523499--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘26
By: craig Date: January 17, 2026, 8:57 am
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reb, not sure either. That will depend, heavily, on whether
Shaw can hit this year.
2025 bench PA: 859 (astonishingly low, thanks to the amazing
lucky health)
2024 bench PA: 1300 (that's way more typical)
2023 bench PA: 1658
2022 bench PA: 2304
There are a lot of AB's taken by non-starters. Obviously Shaw
isn't going to catch, or probably play 1B. But between DH,
2B/SS/3B, and OF, there are a bunch of up-for-grabs AB.
#Post#: 523500--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘26
By: craig Date: January 17, 2026, 10:21 am
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Obviously the 859, 1300, and 1658 non-starter PA from the last
three years are somewhat misleading: we know Shaw won't catch,
and probably won't play 1B.
But as Shaw noted, a lot of the remaining 2B/SS/3B/LF/CF/RF
usage will depend on how he plays and hits. That remains to be
seen.
Last year he had kinda strong splits: .808 vs LHP, .649 vs RHP.
Will he outhit Austin for the 40+ DH starts against LHP? Don't
know.
Will he outhit Alcantara for some OF PA? Don't know.
Will Moises struggle, and Shaw improve a lot even versus RHP, so
that he steals some starts versus RHP? Don't know.
Will he hit no better than Alcantara, so that Alcantara gets any
OF AB and Shaw ends up not really doing any OF action, unless
they are down to needing 5th or 6th OFer? Don't know.
Will he hit well enough that Counsell is comfortable giving
Dansby, Bregman, or Hoerner a rest day once in a while? Don't
know.
Will PCA hit LHP well enough to get all the CF starts? Or will
he get some selective rest days against tough LHP? Don't know.
Will Bregman, Dansby, or Hoerner have any injuries? Don't know.
Last year Bregman did. Two years ago both Dansby and Hoerner
did. I hope they all stay healthy, but who knows?
If he hits so well, against both lefties and righties, so that
it's a crime that he can't be a one-position every-day starter,
then there should be lots of Zobrist-esque opportunities at
other positions. If he doesn't hit well enough to actually be a
guy you'd want starting every day, even against RHP, then he
might not get as many utility AB.
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