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#Post#: 523201--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘26
By: CurtOne Date: January 11, 2026, 9:10 pm
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I think it's despicable how people are claiming Hoyer only did
this to cover his ass this next weekend at the convention. He
was planning on having the flu.
#Post#: 523256--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘26
By: craig Date: January 12, 2026, 3:53 pm
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Budget stuff has been included in HotStove, etc.. This maybe
belongs better in Cubs in '27, Cubs in '28, Cubs in '29 threads!
Hopefully will be true that in not super long, the Cubs will
face a series of internal raises for arb guys. Ideally big
raises, because guys will be good. In the ideal, Steele,
Cabrera, Assad, etc. are good and earn significant arb raises
next year. Amaya, Busch, PCA, and Palencia will all start
arbing up next year, so the budget spiral might be *very* sharp
from 2027-2029. We remember this reality for Bryant and the WS
crowd. Lets win this year before the inflation goes wild! :):)
1. Steele, one more arb year. FA after '27.
2. Cabrera, Assad. Two more arbs, FA after '28.
3. Next year, 2027, will start 3 arbs for Amaya, Busch, FA's
after 2029.
4. Cots shows '27 being fist of 4 arb year for PCA, Palencia,
Brown, FA's after 2030.
Once arb-based inflation goes wild, Hoyer can't do all three of
1) holding existing guys together, including raises/extensions
for everybody, and 2) adding external FA's of significance, and
3) holding payroll steady.
Ideally:
1. Cubs will be winning, a lot; winning will generate revenue
and enable budget to inflate lots.
2. ideally new young players emerge, able to replace expiring
contracts to cover the inflation costs.
3. Ideally CBA raises lux levels lots, so that Hoyer can raise
budget without serious lux penalties.
Next year: Hoerner, Happ, Seiya, Shota, Taillon, maybe Boyd
expire. I imagine extending Hoerner; one of Happ/Seiya; one of
Boyd/Shota/Imanaga. Shota-Taillon-Seiya off could free ~$60
coming. Boyd and Hoerner back might raise ~$20 combined. Could
easily cover arb raises for next year, but no big-ticket space
for outside FA's, probably.
-*IF* there are stiff repeater-lux penalties next CBA, could
probably easily get under lux1 and re-set the lux process? Or
free up spare $$ to add one or two cheaper replacement FA's?
-To let two starters go, Horton and Cabrera need to stay healthy
and be good; would want steele to return effective; and want
wiggins to emerge.
Ater 2027, way harder. Arb raises might be huge. Maybe Boyd or
Steele might be pitchers coming off, maybe? But you'd better
D+D some replacements fast...
Might want to free a bunch of salary next winter, and maybe not
spend it all back, to help cover 28 inflation?
Better, keep winning a whole lot, and earn salary inflation?
But yeah, could easily imagine it being like late-Theo; built-in
inflation made budget climb so fast that they didn't have
discretionary for outside FA's. Again, ideal that internal
prospects can fill some holes and you don't need outside $$
FA's.
Would really love for Conrad to look crazy good this summer, and
other OFers look so good that perhaps you could clear BOTH Happ
and Seiya? Or maybe have Shaw and Triantos and Rojas progress
so well this summer that you could lose Hoerner without
deteriorating badly?
But yeah, might be that this year and next might be opportunity
years to win a lot before the inflation wolf tears you up.
#Post#: 523320--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘26
By: craig Date: January 13, 2026, 1:18 pm
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Roster guess:
Bench: Ballesteros, Amaya, Shaw, Austin, Alcantara. (Or
OF-to-be-acquired-later.).
Iowa contingencies: Long, Triantos, not sure who else. (Nobody
I know of who's likely to be very good?).
Rotation: Imanage, Taillon, Boyd, Horton, Cabrera
DL: Steele
Relief: Rea, Assad, Palencia, Harvey, Maton, Webb, Thielbar,
Milner
Iowa options contingencies, significant: Wiggins, Hodge, Brown,
Wicks, Little
Iowa options contingencies, not good: Hollowell, Martin, Neely,
Roberts, Rollison,
Iowa non-roster contingencies, interesting: Snider, Martin,
more to come for sure.
Iowa non-roster contingencies, not very intereting: Brigham,
Beede, more to come for sure.
#Post#: 523375--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘26
By: Reb Date: January 14, 2026, 1:49 pm
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Cubs 40-man is now at 39.
#Post#: 523383--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘26
By: Ron Date: January 14, 2026, 4:44 pm
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Since Bregman is now officially a Cub, I'm putting this here
instead of Hot Stove.
This is an article that argues that Bregman is a perfect fit for
the Cubs because the Cubs became the #1 team in baseball at
pulling the ball in the air last year and Bregman is one of the
top players at doing that. I had not seen any reference to this
transformation by the Cubs last year. In 2024, they were 22nd in
MLB with 16.8% of hit balls being pulled in the air, but in 2025
their percentage increased to 21.8%. Interesting. I'm curious
what others here think about that.
HTML https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/alex-bregman-perfect-fit-for-cubs-lineup
#Post#: 523384--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘26
By: JeffH Date: January 14, 2026, 5:51 pm
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It's intentional and it's great. Slugging scores runs and wins
ballgames.
#Post#: 523390--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘26
By: craig Date: January 15, 2026, 8:09 am
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Weather may be different these days, but historically hasn't LF
been a little friendlier for HR than RF? A teensier bit shorter
to the basket, and unfavorable winds slightly less frequent?
#Post#: 523391--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘26
By: craig Date: January 15, 2026, 8:37 am
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On the pull-in-air bit, I wonder how much that is just
scouting/acquiring guys who have that profile, and how much is
coaching/encouraging guys to swing that way?
Presumably both.
I recall 2017-18 references to coaching Addison Russell to use
the whole field, try to hit opposite way, etc.. He'd shown some
pull power; "opposite-way" emphasis correlated HR dropping from
21-12-5. (Obviously coaching was not the only influence in his
failure.). But yeah, they used to coach opposite-field hitting,
a lot.
Whether coaching can help with pull-in-air hitting is relevant
to Moises and Alcantara. Both have been groundball-oriented
guys. And at least for Moises, I think he's tended to be an
opposite-field guy. Perhaps if Bregman and team leaders are
consciously talking up the value of pull-in-air for power, and
if coaching is encouraging the same, I wonder if Moises might
over time make some finesse adjustments and get to some pull
lift a little more often, and get some HR? Being a good contact
hitter is nice, obviously, but hard to be a really good-value DH
without a solid number of HR's. Alcantara too, *IF* he could
mature into game-HR productivity, that could totally change his
career trajectory.
I wonder if Cubs coaching was very involved in Shaw's radical
revision from an extreme oppo-hitter with extraordinary
RF-oriented stance, to the normal-stance dead-pull hitter he
became by second half. Maybe Dustin Kelly encouraged that, but
may also have been Shaw's own tweaking, motivated by
mega-failure using his oppo-approach.
I also wonder how integrated the pull-in-air value is at
minor-league levels. Shaw came all the way up dead-oppo.
Moises hadn't seemed to get more pull-oriented, thus far. And
Caissie was kinda an oppo-guy until finally adapting and pulling
more over the last year, year-and-a-half.
Whatever, I hope Mo and Kevin can better tap into their pull
power in the years ahead. And I hope that Conrad has that
aptitude and can become a HR-slugger, hopefully fairly quickly.
#Post#: 523401--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘26
By: Ron Date: January 15, 2026, 12:26 pm
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I watched the Alex Bregman Cubs Press Conference. Not a lot said
of note. I don't expect Bregman to be a particularly rich source
of quotes based on the press conference. Pretty minimal answers,
mostly restating, in different ways to different questions, his
priority on winning. Boras is a master at fairly lengthy,
seemingly erudite answers to questions without really providing
much actual content. Hoyer certainly looked to be genuinely
excited about (finally) bringing Bregman on board. There were
two pretty interesting things. One was Hoyer reciting a series
of things Bregman has already done in the few days since the
agreement including questions about individual team players and
what they are working on, as well as already reaching out to
most of his new teammates. The second was Hoyer revealing that
he had conversations with Ricketts and Kenney about the issue of
deferments throughout the season, which ultimately led to the
decision to include deferments in the deal. Seems likely Hoyer
succeessfully convinced them to become open to the approach.
#Post#: 523403--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘26
By: craig Date: January 15, 2026, 2:02 pm
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HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSPJE5LaLuY
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