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#Post#: 514337--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2025
By: craig Date: July 13, 2025, 11:04 pm
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Tomorrow will also provide info in that we'll see how many
overslot types they pick. For all we know Kepley and Reid will
be sub-slots, and they'll pick some guys with developmental
upside tomorrow? I hope....
#Post#: 514339--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2025
By: Dave23 Date: July 13, 2025, 11:09 pm
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We probably took Kepley to keep the Diamondbacks from taking
him…
#Post#: 514340--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2025
By: Deeg Date: July 13, 2025, 11:09 pm
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[quote author=craig link=topic=659.msg514337#msg514337
date=1752465873]
Tomorrow will also provide info in that we'll see how many
overslot types they pick. For all we know Kepley and Reid will
be sub-slots, and they'll pick some guys with developmental
upside tomorrow? I hope....
[/quote]
All three day one picks should be underslot, and Kepley and Reid
maybe way under. Hopefully they try and make a big splash on day
two.
#Post#: 514343--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2025
By: Reb Date: July 13, 2025, 11:20 pm
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[quote author=Deeg link=topic=659.msg514332#msg514332
date=1752464401]
Kepley will have to hit enough to stick in LF…
[/quote]
BA:
Kepley’s carrying tools are his premium glove in center field
and plus speed, which translates both in the field and on the
basepaths. He pairs his speed with great athleticism and
instincts and he should be a plus defender in center field with
little risk to move off the position.
#Post#: 514344--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2025
By: CUBluejays Date: July 13, 2025, 11:22 pm
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Kepley needs a swing change that sacrifices contact for power.
He doesn’t have to be a power hitter, but more Nico like.
Reid needs a breaking ball and a few MPH on the fastball.
Both guys seem like they have qualities that you could throw
into the development systems for the Cubs and come up with
something useful at the major league level and that would be a
win.
Really like Conrad. The issue is he might chase too much and
the shoulder. Since he’s a lefty, it would have been worse from
a hitting standpoint to injure the right shoulder.
#Post#: 514345--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2025
By: Reb Date: July 13, 2025, 11:35 pm
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Conrad was the first OF off the board this draft at #17 overall.
Very unusual.
In the three previous drafts, 2024, 23, 22, a total of 16 OFers
were taken by pick #17.
#Post#: 514346--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2025
By: Deeg Date: July 13, 2025, 11:42 pm
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[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=659.msg514344#msg514344
date=1752466923]
Kepley needs a swing change that sacrifices contact for power.
He doesn’t have to be a power hitter, but more Nico like.
Reid needs a breaking ball and a few MPH on the fastball..
[/quote]
Is that all?
The problem with Kepley, again, is we don't need a CF and won't
for several years hopefully. He has zero in-game power and lacks
the arm for RF. That means he's either a left fielder for us or
a 4th-5th OF who can't play right.
#Post#: 514347--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2025
By: Reb Date: July 14, 2025, 3:00 am
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Curious that Cubs use a high pick to draft a pure CFer when,
obviously, PCA is the Cubs CFer going forward.
What that tells me is that Kantrovitz loves Kepley. And if you
think Kantrovitz is a competent and astute guy, you might want
to hear what he says about the player.
Or, you can take seriously the firm conclusions about the player
from a poster who never heard of Kepley until Sunday evening.
#Post#: 514349--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2025
By: craig Date: July 14, 2025, 7:38 am
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Kepley is just a really curious pick. Couple random thoughts:
1. As reb notes, Kantro must like the value at pick 56. Hard
to understand why, but maybe he's got fair reason?
2. Value is not just relative to the pick. It's relative to
the dollars. We don't know what he's actually signing for.
Maybe he's signing for $1M, and clearing $0.67 for developmental
guys today?
3. BPA. PCA may have CF blocked for a while. If the player
you get is good enough to be a good starter, hallelujah, even if
he's blocked. You can trade him, or rejoice in having bench
player good enough to be a starter if he wasn't blocked.
4. Upside to be a good starter? I'd like 2nd/3rd round picks
to have good-starter upside. Not sure I see that in a little,
no-power guy who didn't even hit .300 in college.
#Post#: 514350--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2025
By: craig Date: July 14, 2025, 9:20 am
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I'm trying to think of tiny-man analogies for Kepley. Madrigal
obviously comes to mind. Southisene and Bateman at the
minor-league level. All three seem busts. Madrigal obviously
bad. Still, it might not take huge tweaks on Madrigal to have a
different outcome? Even a little more power, so that
outfielders can't play so shallow? (Or if they do, more
line-drive power to split some gaps for doubles/triples, or
sometimes drive it over shallow heads for doubles and triples?)
2nd, the walks. *IF* Madrigal had a high walk-rate, his batting
average was sufficient to support a strong OBP. 3rd, stolen
bases. Kepley projects both walks and SB that Madrigal didn't
have. Can he hit the ball hard enough and hit the ball on a
line often enough to support a batting average without the
benefit of HR's?
Lenny Dykstra is beyond the dream. Dykstra had 6 seasons with
≤6 HR's, and HR's were 0-3-8-6-1 in the minors. But he
averaged 81 walks per 162 games in majors. (Had a minor league
season with 107/35 BB/K!) He was taller, 5'10", and probably
jacked on steroids, so he was strong enough for lots of doubles
and triples, outfielders didn't Madrigal-shallow him.
Perhaps Brett Butler would be more plausible wannabe? Averaged
4 HR/162, and lots of seasons with less. But still managed a
.290 batting average, with 83 walks-per-season, and 42 steals.
.377 OBP with steals, that's a good player.
Juan Pierre didn't walk, so don't think he's a good comp.
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