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#Post#: 503958--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: CurtOne Date: December 11, 2024, 5:47 am
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I don't understand this obsession with dumping Bellinger. He's
been the only thing worth watching at times for the Cubs.
Reportedly good in the clubhouse, a great teammate. He's been
"coaching" PCA. If he was going to bring something back, sure,
go ahead and trade him, but if we actually pay for someone to
take him away from us, that's insane. But that's Hoyer.
I wonder when Counsell starts pushing back on the
stupidity..."Jed, this isn't what I was promised."
#Post#: 503959--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: guest424 Date: December 11, 2024, 5:49 am
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All we can do at this point is assume there is a plan and not
just a pure salary dump.
What can we do about it but let it play out?
#Post#: 503960--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: Deeg Date: December 11, 2024, 6:37 am
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[quote author=CurtOne link=topic=647.msg503958#msg503958
date=1733917633]
I don't understand this obsession with dumping Bellinger. He's
been the only thing worth watching at times for the Cubs.
Reportedly good in the clubhouse, a great teammate. He's been
"coaching" PCA. If he was going to bring something back, sure,
go ahead and trade him, but if we actually pay for someone to
take him away from us, that's insane. But that's Hoyer.
I wonder when Counsell starts pushing back on the
stupidity..."Jed, this isn't what I was promised."
[/quote]
See above.
#Post#: 503961--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: craig Date: December 11, 2024, 9:18 am
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[quote author=Reb link=topic=647.msg503954#msg503954
date=1733904422]
Buster... said that Cubs “basically willing to give away Cody
Bellinger” and will have to eat some contract money.
Yeah, so if accurate, seems like Cubs trying to create a
situation as if Bellinger had opted out. Get nothing in return,
pay a buyout, and goodbye.[/quote]
Is it legal to actually include cash to pay salary? For
example, would Cubs be allowed to pick up $2.5, or $10 or
whatever, of the contract? Or, have a contingent responsibility
to pick up the $5 option in case he opts out? Or does CBA
preclude any cash inclusion? So that any "buyout" or
"eat-some-contract" by CBA must involve a bad contract in
return?
#Post#: 503962--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: CUBluejays Date: December 11, 2024, 9:55 am
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The Cubs can cover the buyout and money for both years of the
contract if he doesn't opt out. It can be conditional as well
on what he does.
#Post#: 503963--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: CUBluejays Date: December 11, 2024, 10:06 am
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[quote author=Deeg link=topic=647.msg503945#msg503945
date=1733890956]
Depends on whether he signs an extension or not.
Tucker is a legit star. If he refuses to extend (which he
presumably would) I'd offer them Suzuki and any prospect not
named Ballesteror, Shaw, or Cam Smith. The cost savings this
season would be minimal for them but if they're determined that
they can't re-sign Tucker that might interest them. If they're
looking for straight-up prospects I'd be out unless there was an
extension involved.
As far as an extension, something like 9 years, $300 million
sounds about right.
[/quote]
Don't pay extra for an extension. At this point you'd be paying
retail for an extension so that doesn't bring any extra value to
the table. If the Cubs trade for him an extension should
definitely be involved.
Tucker has been a 5 fWAR player last year and prior to his
injury was on pace to be a 9ish fWAR player over 162 games. I
doubt the Astros would value him as 5 fWAR player, but I doubt
the Cubs would want to pay for him as 9ish fWAR. So call him a
7 fWAR player.
That leads to an excess value at a straight $/WAR of $48ish
million. Suzuki has about a $30 million excess value. So the
prospect cost is going to be around $18 million or so. That's
probalby a 50 FV prospect as well.
Update:
Bleacher Nation put out an article that the Astros are
prioritizing OF and 3B and being major league ready.
Paeredes would play really well in their park so building a
trade around him would have some more prospect cost, but that
would be a more ideal than trading Seiya. Sending out Bellinger
in a salary dump would be more palatable as well. The issue
would be getting Seiya enough time in the OF to keep him happy.
Give Shaw the 3B job and have an actual offense would be fun
again.
#Post#: 503964--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: Ron Date: December 11, 2024, 10:31 am
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Mooney & Sharma have a piece in The Athletic on Kyle Tucker's
fit for the Cubs. Hint: it would be a very good fit.
HTML https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5985653/2024/12/10/cubs-kyle-tucker/
#Post#: 503965--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: craig Date: December 11, 2024, 10:49 am
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[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=647.msg503962#msg503962
date=1733932541]
The Cubs can cover the buyout and money for both years of the
contract if he doesn't opt out. It can be conditional as well
on what he does.[/quote]
That's helpful. I'm sure Hoyer would like guys who have some
current roster function, even if as depth pieces. But it
wouldn't kill me to just include straight cash and get
more/better young long-term talent back.
I admit that after the 4-year farm-rebuild, I have some fear
that we may fall right back into Theo-world farm-dumpster in 19
months? The farm is well regarded, but that's mostly the Iowa
guys and Cam. It's well possible that by trade deadline 26, all
of those top-100 guys (other than Rojas) will have either
graduated, busted, or gotten traded, and we'll revert back to
Theo's bottom-5-farms-in-baseball landscape.
#Post#: 503966--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: brjones Date: December 11, 2024, 10:54 am
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[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=647.msg503963#msg503963
date=1733933214]
Bleacher Nation put out an article that the Astros are
prioritizing OF and 3B and being major league ready.
Paeredes would play really well in their park so building a
trade around him would have some more prospect cost, but that
would be a more ideal than trading Seiya. Sending out Bellinger
in a salary dump would be more palatable as well. The issue
would be getting Seiya enough time in the OF to keep him happy.
Give Shaw the 3B job and have an actual offense would be fun
again.
[/quote]
I might be the only one, but I feel like now would be a great
time to sell high on Caissie in a Tucker trade. He's never been
more valuable, but he's also still striking out almost 30% of
the time in the minors. I'm worried that he could be one of
those guys who comes up, strikes out 40 times in his first 80
PA, and then quickly gets branded as a AAAA/up-and-down guy.
#Post#: 503967--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: brjones Date: December 11, 2024, 11:12 am
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Rosenthal just tweeted that preliminary trade talks include both
Paredes and Suzuki.
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