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#Post#: 503942--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: brjones Date: December 10, 2024, 9:43 pm
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I'm not going to get my hopes up because we know Jed Hoyer's
track record. But FWIW, it seems like the Cubs are going to at
least try to trade for Kyle Tucker:
HTML https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5985653/2024/12/10/cubs-kyle-tucker/
Bleacher Nation summary of the article if you don't pay for The
Athletic:
HTML https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2024/12/10/kyle-tucker-has-emerged-as-an-intriguing-option-for-the-cubs/
#Post#: 503943--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: Reb Date: December 10, 2024, 10:06 pm
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[quote author=brjones link=topic=647.msg503942#msg503942
date=1733888612]
I'm not going to get my hopes up because we know Jed Hoyer's
track record. But FWIW, it seems like the Cubs are going to at
least try to trade for Kyle Tucker….
[/quote]
Give us a realistic trade package you’d give up to acquire
Tucker?
#Post#: 503945--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: Deeg Date: December 10, 2024, 10:22 pm
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[quote author=Reb link=topic=647.msg503943#msg503943
date=1733889985]
Give us a realistic trade package you’d give up to acquire
Tucker?
[/quote]
Depends on whether he signs an extension or not.
Tucker is a legit star. If he refuses to extend (which he
presumably would) I'd offer them Suzuki and any prospect not
named Ballesteror, Shaw, or Cam Smith. The cost savings this
season would be minimal for them but if they're determined that
they can't re-sign Tucker that might interest them. If they're
looking for straight-up prospects I'd be out unless there was an
extension involved.
As far as an extension, something like 9 years, $300 million
sounds about right.
#Post#: 503946--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: Reb Date: December 10, 2024, 11:00 pm
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[quote author=Deeg link=topic=647.msg503945#msg503945
date=1733890956]
……As far as an extension, something like 9 years, $300 million
sounds about right.
[/quote]
So, is it fair to say that Juan Soto’s value is a Kyle Tucker,
then another Kyle Tucker, plus a 1/2 of an additional Kyle
Tucker?
#Post#: 503947--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: Deeg Date: December 10, 2024, 11:13 pm
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[quote author=Reb link=topic=647.msg503946#msg503946
date=1733893224]
So, is it fair to say that Juan Soto’s value is a Kyle Tucker,
then another Kyle Tucker, plus a 1/2 of an additional Kyle
Tucker?
[/quote]
Soto is 2 years younger and a better player. Tucker also isn't a
FA until next season and that would represent a sizable increase
in salary this season. It really isn't that hard to grasp the
difference.
SI.com:
[quote]Recently, The Athletic dove into the potential extensions
for several players. All had two things in common. One, they
were all under 30 years old period second, they all had at least
two controllable years left before they could hit free agency.
Tucker was on the list. The Athletic estimated his extension
would be valued at $204 million over eight years. That is down a
bit from last year's estimate, which was $211 million over nine
years.[/quote]
ApolloHOU:
[quote]
Now for the money. Tucker is one of the best players in
baseball, and getting his contract done before any outrageous
Shohei Ohtani contract is dealt could be important. It’s not my
money, so I could be wrong, but $235 million over eight seasons
seems like the right number. The annual average value (AAV)
would come out to right around $29.375 million a season, and
seem incredibly fair for Tucker’s value.
Bryce Harper’s AAV is just over $25 million, and Mike Trout’s
AAV is around $35.5 million. Putting Tucker smack dab in the
middle of those two superstars feels right to me.[/quote]
#Post#: 503950--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: Reb Date: December 10, 2024, 11:34 pm
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[quote author=Deeg link=topic=647.msg503947#msg503947
date=1733894024]
Soto is 2 years younger and a better player. Tucker also isn't a
FA until next season and that would represent a sizable increase
in salary this season. It really isn't that hard to grasp the
difference.
[/quote]
We know that Soto is better than Tucker. But, he’s worth 2 1/2
times the value of Kyle Tucker?
Soto’s 162 game average bWAR is 6.2. Tucker’s 162 game average
is 5.9. The math is fuzzy as to how we get 2 1/2 times the
value. Seems hard to grasp how that jives.
And the 2025 Tucker arb salary component is eaten by the $15M
that Soto exceeded $750. Soto got $765. $750 would be $300 x 2
1/2. So, think we have to add $15 to whatever Tucker’s 2025 arb
number may be.
The age difference is eaten by your Tucker contract ending at
age 36 while Soto’s contract is ending at age 40.
Tico mentioned the Frank Robinson comp to Soto. Frank Robinson
averaged 1.4 bWAR per season his age 38, 39, 40 seasons.
#Post#: 503953--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: Deeg Date: December 11, 2024, 12:12 am
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Brendan Miller
@brendan_cubs
·
2h
How much would Kyle Tucker impact the Cubs?
Replacing Bellinger with Tucker would boost their batting WAR
from 13th to 6th. Early in the offseason, this would put them
just 1 win behind the Yankees and Braves, and 2 behind the
Dodgers. It would be pretty significant.
#Post#: 503954--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: Reb Date: December 11, 2024, 2:07 am
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Buster was on with Michael Kay on Tuesday talking about Yankees
and said that Cubs “basically willing to give away Cody
Bellinger” and will have to eat some contract money.
Yeah, so if accurate, seems like Cubs trying to create a
situation as if Bellinger had opted out.
Get nothing in return, pay a buyout, and goodbye.
#Post#: 503955--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: Tuffy Date: December 11, 2024, 3:31 am
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Is our new third base coach the same Quintin Berry who was a
pinch-running specialist for us down the stretch in 2015?
I remember him pinch running (for Denorfia) and scoring the
winning run in this 12-inning game against the second-place
Pirates:
HTML https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PIT/PIT201509160.shtml
He must have really liked our organization; did he make any
comments about that when being hired?
#Post#: 503956--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: Deeg Date: December 11, 2024, 3:49 am
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If Olney is right and Bellinger would be a straight salary dump
at best, there are only two realistic possibilities. One, they
knew this acrimony with Suzuki existed and were trying to head
it off at the pass. Or two, they do indeed intend to cut payroll
well below the tax line. Because what with them sitting out the
major free agents and how much money they have coming off the
board, it's hard to see how they have to lose Bellinger's salary
to stay under last season's number.
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